Simulation of the phenological development of wheat and maize at the global scale

Global Ecology and Biogeography

Volumn 24, Issue 9, 2015, Pages 1018-1029

  van Bussel, L G J ^a,b   Stehfest, E ^b   Siebert, S ^c   Muller C ^d   Ewert, F ^c  

^a WAGENINGEN UNIVERSITY   (Netherlands)

^b PBL NETHERLANDS ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT AGENCY   (Netherlands)

^c UNIVERSITY OF BONN   (Germany)

^d POTSDAM INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE IMPACT RESEARCH   (Germany)

Author keywords

Agricultural management; Crop calendars; Cultivar variety characteristics; Global crop modelling; Global harvest dates; Phenology

Indexed keywords

AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT; AGRICULTURAL MANAGEMENT; CROP PRODUCTION; CROPPING PRACTICE; CULTIVAR; HARVESTING; MAIZE; PHENOLOGY; WHEAT;

TRITICUM AESTIVUM; ZEA MAYS;

EID: 84938973553     PISSN: 1466822X     EISSN: 14668238     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/geb.12351     Document Type: Article

References (44)

1. Asseng, S., Ewert, F., Rosenzweig, C. etal. (2013) Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change. Nature Climate Change, 3, 827-832.
2. Bassu, S., Brisson, N., Durand, J.-L. etal. (2014) How do various maize crop models vary in their responses to climate change factors? Global Change Biology, 20, 2301-2320.
3. Bignon, J. (1990) Agrometeorologie et physiologie du mais grain dans la communaute Europeenne. Commission des Communautes Europeennes, Luxembourg.
4. Birch, C.J., Hammer, G.L. & Rickert, K.G. (1998) Temperature and photoperiod sensitivity of development in five cultivars of maize (Zea mays L.) from emergence to tassel initiation. Field Crops Research, 55, 93-107.
5. Bonhomme, R., Derieux, M. & Edmeades, G.O. (1994) Flowering of diverse maize cultivars in relation to temperature and photoperiod in multilocation field trials. Crop Science, 34, 156-164.
6. Craufurd, P.Q. & Wheeler, T.R. (2009) Climate change and the flowering time of annual crops. Journal of Experimental Botany, 60, 2529-2539.
7. Dettori, M., Cesaraccio, C., Motroni, A., Spano, D. & Duce, P. (2011) Using CERES-Wheat to simulate durum wheat production and phenology in southern Sardinia, Italy. Field Crops Research, 120, 179-188.
8. Ewert, F., Porter, J. & Honermeier, B. (1996) Use of AFRCWHEAT2 to predict the development of main stem and tillers in winter triticale and winter wheat in North East Germany. European Journal of Agronomy, 5, 89-103.
9. FAO (2012) FAOSTAT Available at: http://faostat.fao.org/default.aspx (accessed 17 April 2012).
10. Fisher, R.A. (1999) Wheat cropping in Australia. Wheat ecology and physiology of yield determination (ed. by E.H. Satorre and G.A. Slafer ), pp. 277-294. Food Products Press, New York.
11. Gouesnard, B., Rebourg, C., Welcker, C. & Charcosset, A. (2002) Analysis of photoperiod sensitivity within a collection of tropical maize populations. Genetic Resources and Crop Evolution, 49, 471-481.
12. Hay, R.K.M. & Kirby, E.J.M. (1991) Convergence and synchrony - a review of the coordination of development in wheat. Australian Journal of Agricultural Research, 42, 661-700.
13. He, L., Asseng, S., Zhao, G., Wu, D., Yang, X., Zhuang, W., Jin, N. & Yu, Q. (2015) Impacts of recent climate warming, cultivar changes, and crop management on winter wheat phenology across the Loess Plateau of China. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 200, 135-143.
14. Iwaki, K., Haruna, S., Niwa, T. & Kato, K. (2001) Adaptation and ecological differentiation in wheat with special reference to geographical variation of growth habit and Vrn genotype. Plant Breeding, 120, 107-114.
15. Kato, K. & Yokoyama, H. (1992) Geographical variation in heading characters among wheat landraces, Triticum aestivum L., and its implication for their adaptability. Theoretical and Applied Genetics, 84, 259-265.
16. Kouressy, M., Dingkuhn, M., Vaksmann, M. & Heinemann, A.B. (2008) Adaptation to diverse semi-arid environments of sorghum genotypes having different plant type and sensitivity to photoperiod. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 148, 357-371.
17. Kumudini, S., Andrade, F.H., Boote, K.J. etal. (2014) Predicting maize phenology: intercomparison of functions for developmental response to temperature. Agronomy Journal, 106, 2087-2097.
18. Mahfoozi, S., Limin, A.E. & Fowler, D.B. (2001) Influence of vernalization and photoperiod responses on cold hardiness in winter cereals. Crop Science, 41, 1006-1011.
19. Menzel, A., Sparks, T.H., Estrella, N. etal. (2006) European phenological response to climate change matches the warming pattern. Global Change Biology, 12, 1969-1976.
20. Miralles, D.J. & Slafer, G.A. (1999) Wheat development. Wheat ecology and physiology of yield determination (ed. by E.H. Satorre and G.A. Slafer ), pp. 13-43. Food Products Press, New York.
21. Miralles, D.J., Spinedi, M.V., Abeledo, L.G. & Abelleyra, D. (2007) Variability on photoperiod responses in Argentinean wheat cultivars differing in length of crop cycle. Wheat production in stressed environments (ed. by H.T. Buck, J.E. Nisi and N. Salomón ), pp. 599-609. Springer, Dordrecht.
22. Mitchell, T.D. & Jones, P.D. (2005) An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. International Journal of Climatology, 25, 693-712.
23. Monteith, J.L. & Unsworth, M.H. (1990) Principles of environmental physics. Arnold, London.
24. Müller, C. & Robertson, R.D. (2014) Projecting future crop productivity for global economic modeling. Agricultural Economics, 45, 37-50.
25. Olesen, J.E., Børgesen, C.D., Elsgaard, L., Palosuo, T., Rötter, R.P., Skjelvåg, A.O., Peltonen-Sainio, P., Börjesson, T., Trnka, M., Ewert, F., Siebert, S., Brisson, N., Eitzinger, J., Van Asselt, E.D., Oberforster, M. & Van der Fels-Klerx, H.J. (2012) Changes in time of sowing, flowering and maturity of cereals in Europe under climate change. Food Additives and Contaminants: Part A, 29, 1527-1542.
26. Ortiz Ferrara, G., Mosaad, M.G., Mahalakshmi, V. & Rajaram, S. (1998) Photoperiod and vernalisation response of Mediterranean wheats, and implications for adaptation. Euphytica, 100, 377-384.
27. PEP725 (2014) Pan European Phenology Database. Available at: http://www.zamg.ac.at/pep725/ (accessed 22 July 2014).
28. Porter, J.R. (1993) AFRCWHEAT2: a model of the growth and development of wheat incorporating responses to water and nitrogen. European Journal of Agronomy, 2, 69-82.
29. Porter, J.R. & Semenov, M.A. (2005) Crop responses to climatic variation. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 360, 2021-2035.
30. Portmann, F.T., Siebert, S. & Doll, P. (2010) MIRCA2000-Global monthly irrigated and rainfed crop areas around the year 2000: a new high-resolution data set for agricultural and hydrological modeling. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 24, GB1011.
31. Raven, P.H., Evert, R.F. & Eichhorn, S.E. (2005) Biology of plants. Freeman, New York.
32. Rood, S.B. & Major, D.J. (1980) Responses of early corn inbreds to photoperiod. Crop Science, 20, 679-682.
33. Rosenzweig, C., Elliott, J., Deryng, D., Ruane, A.C., Müller, C., Arneth, A., Boote, K.J., Folberth, C., Glotter, M., Khabarov, N., Neumann, K., Piontek, F., Pugh, T.A.M., Schmid, E., Stehfest, E., Yang, H. & Jones, J.W. (2014) Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 111, 3268-3273.
34. Sacks, W.J., Deryng, D., Foley, J.A. & Ramankutty, N. (2010) Crop planting dates: an analysis of global patterns. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 19, 607-620.
35. Slafer, G.A. & Rawson, H.M. (1994) Sensitivity of wheat phasic development to major environmental factors: a re-examination of some assumptions made by physiologists and modellers. Functional Plant Biology, 21, 393-426.
36. Summerfield, R.J., Ellis, R.H., Craufurd, P.Q., Aiming, Q., Roberts, E.H. & Wheeler, T.R. (1997) Environmental and genetic regulation of flowering of tropical annual crops. Euphytica, 96, 83-91.
37. Tao, F., Zhang, S., Zhang, Z. & Rötter, R.P. (2014) Maize growing duration was prolonged across China in the past three decades under the combined effects of temperature, agronomic management, and cultivar shift. Global Change Biology, 20, 3686-3699.
38. Trethowan, R., Morgunov, A., He, Z., De Pauw, R., Crossa, J., Warburton, M., Baytasov, A., Zhang, C., Mergoum, M. & Alvarado, G. (2006) The global adaptation of bread wheat at high latitudes. Euphytica, 152, 303-316.
39. Twine, T.E. & Kucharik, C.J. (2009) Climate impacts on net primary productivity trends in natural and managed ecosystems of the central and eastern United States. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 149, 2143-2161.
40. Waha, K., Van Bussel, L.G.J., Müller, C. & Bondeau, A. (2012) Climate-driven simulation of global crop sowing dates. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 21, 247-259.
41. Weir, A.H., Bragg, P.L., Porter, J.R. & Rayner, J.H. (1984) A winter wheat crop stimulation model without water or nutrient limitations. Journal of Agricultural Science, 102, 371-382.
42. Wheeler, T.R., Craufurd, P.Q., Ellis, R.H., Porter, J.R. & Vara Prasad, P.V. (2000) Temperature variability and the yield of annual crops. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 82, 159-167.
43. Willmott, C.J. (1982) Some comments on the evaluation of model performance. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 63, 1309-1313.
44. Worland, A.J., Appendino, M.L. & Sayers, E.J. (1994) The distribution, in European winter wheats, of genes that influence ecoclimatic adaptability whilst determining photoperiodic insensitivity and plant height. Euphytica, 80, 219-228.