Changes in climate extreme events in China associated with warming

International Journal of Climatology

Volumn 35, Issue 10, 2015, Pages 2735-2751

  Chen, Huopo ^a,b   Sun, Jianqi ^a  

^a INSTITUTE OF ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS   (China)

^b NANJING UNIVERSITY OF INFORMATION SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY   (China)

Author keywords

2 C warming; China; Climate extreme events; CMIP5; ETCCDI; Projection; Uncertainty

Indexed keywords

BIODIVERSITY; CHEMICAL CONTAMINATION; CLIMATE MODELS; GLOBAL WARMING; PRECIPITATION (METEOROLOGY);

CHINA; CLIMATE EXTREMES; CMIP5; ETCCDI; PROJECTION; UNCERTAINTY;

FLOODS;

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; EXTREME EVENT; GLOBAL WARMING; TEMPERATURE ANOMALY; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

CHINA;

EID: 84938953697     PISSN: 08998418     EISSN: 10970088     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/joc.4168     Document Type: Article

References (49)

1. Alexander L, Zhang X, Peterson T, Caesar J, Gleason B, Tank A, Haylock M, Collins D, Trewin B, Rahimzadeh F, Tagipour A, Kumar K, Revadekar J, Griffiths G, Vincent L, Stephenson D, Burn J, Aguilar E, Brunet M, Taylor M, New M, Zhai P, Rusticucci M, Vazquez-Aguirre J. 2006. Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. J. Geophys. Res. 111: D05109, doi: 10.1029/2005JD006290.
2. Chen HP. 2013. Projected change in extreme rainfall events in China by the end of the 21st century using CMIP5 models. Chin. Sci. Bull. 58(12): 1462-1472.
3. Chen HP, Sun JQ. 2009. How the "best" models project the future precipitation change in China. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 26: 773-782.
4. Chen HP, Sun JQ. 2013. Projected change in East Asian summer monsoon precipitation under RCP scenario. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 121: 55-77.
5. Chen HP, Sun JQ, Chen XL, Zhou W. 2012. CGCM projections of heavy rainfall events in China. Int. J. Climatol. 32: 441-450.
6. Chen HP, Sun JQ, Chen XL. 2013. Future changes of drought and flood events in China under global warming scenario. Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett. 6: 8-13.
7. Chen HP, Sun JQ, Chen XL. 2014. Projection and uncertainty analysis of global precipitation-related extremes using CMIP5 models. Int. J. Climatol. 34: 2730-2748, doi: 10.1002/joc.3871.
8. Deryng D, Sacks WJ, Barford CC, Ramankutty N. 2011. Simulating the effects of climate and agricultural management practices on global crop yield. Global Biogeochem. Cycles 25(2): 1-18.
9. Donat MG, Alexander LV, Yang H, Durre I, Vose R, Dunn RJH, Willett KM, Aguilar E, Brunet M, Caesar J, Hewitson B, Jack C, Klein Tank AMG, Kruger AC, Marengo J, Peterson TC, Renom M, Oria Rojas C, Rusticucci M, Salinger J, Elrayah AS, Sekele SS, Srivastava AK, Trewin B, Villarroel C, Vincent LA, Zhai P, Zhang X, Kitching S. 2013. Updated analyses of temperature and precipitation extreme indices since the beginning of the twentieth century: the HadEX2 dataset. J. Geophys. Res. 118: 2098-2118.
10. Gao XJ, Zhao ZC, Ding YH, Huang RH, Filippo G. 2001. Climate change due to greenhouse effects in China as simulated by a regional climate model. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 18(6): 1224-1230.
11. Gao XJ, Zhao ZC, Filippo G. 2002. Changes of extreme events in regional climate simulations over East Asia. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 19(5): 927-942.
12. Gao XJ, Shi Y, Giorgi F. 2011. A high resolution simulation of climate change over China. Sci. China Earth Sci. 54: 462-472.
13. Gao XJ, Shi Y, Zhang D, Giorgi F. 2012a. Climate change in China in the 21st century as simulated by a high resolution regional climate model. Chinese Sci. Bull. 57: 1188-1195.
14. Gao XJ, Shi Y, Zhang DF, Wu J, Giorgi F, Ji ZM, Wang YG. 2012b. Uncertainties of monsoon precipitation projection over China: results from two high resolution RCM simulations. Clim. Res. 52: 213-226.
15. Guivarch C, Hallegatte S. 2011. Existing infrastructure and the 2°C target. Clim. Change 109: 801-805.
16. Hawkins E, Sutton R. 2009. The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 90: 1095-1107.
17. Hawkins E, Sutton R. 2011. The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change. Clim. Dyn. 37: 407-418.
18. IPCC. 2012. Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Field CB, Barros V, Stocker TF, Qin D, Dokken DJ, Ebi KL, Mastrandrea MD, Mach KJ, Plattner GK, Allen SK, Tignor M, Midgley PM (eds). Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, 582 pp.
19. IPCC. 2013. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds). Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, 1535 pp.
20. James R, Washington R. 2013. Changes in African temperature and precipitation associated with degrees of global warming. Clim. Change 117: 859-872.
21. Jiang DB, Fu YH. 2012. Climate change over China with a 2°C global warming. Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 36: 234-246 (in Chinese).
22. Jiang DB, Tian ZP. 2013. East Asian monsoon change for the 21st century: results of CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. Chin. Sci. Bull. 58: 1427-1435.
23. Jiang DB, Wang HJ, Lang XM. 2005. Evaluation of East Asian climatology as simulated by seven coupled models. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 22: 479-495.
24. Jiang DB, Zhang Y, Sun JQ. 2009. Ensemble projection of 1-3°C warming in China. Chin. Sci. Bull. 54: 3326-3334.
25. Knutti R. 2008. Should we believe model predictions of future climate change? Philos. Trans. R. Soc. A 366: 4647-4664.
26. Knutti R, Allen MR, Friedlingstein P, Gregory JM, Hegerl GC, Meehl GA, Meinshausen M, Murphy JM, Plattner GK, Raper SCB, Stocker TF, Stott PA, Teng H, Wigley TLM. 2008. A review of uncertainties in global temperature projections over the twenty-first century. J. Clim. 21: 2651-2663.
27. Lang X, Sui Y. 2013. Changes in mean and extreme climates over China with a 2°C global warming. Chin. Sci. Bull. 58: 1453-1461.
28. Lu RY, Fu YH. 2010. Intensification of East Asian summer rainfall interannual variability in the twenty-first century simulated by 12 CMIP3 coupled models. J. Clim. 23: 3316-3331.
29. Ma JH, Wang HJ, Zhang Y. 2012. Will boreal winter precipitation over China increase in the future? The AGCM simulation under summer 'ice-free Arctic' conditions. Chin. Sci. Bull. 57: 921-926.
30. Meehl GA, Covey C, Delworth T, Latif M, McAvaney B, Mitchell JFB, Stouffer RJ, Taylor KE. 2007. The WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset: a new era in climate change research. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 88: 1383-1394.
31. Meinshausen M, Meinshausen N, Hare W, Raper SCB, Frieler K, Knutti R, Frame DJ, Allen MR. 2009. Greenhouse gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2°C. Nature 458: 1158-1163.
32. Moss RH, Edmonds JA, Hibbard KA, Manning MR, Rose SK, van Vuuren DP, Carter TR, Emori S, Kainuma M, Kram T, Meehl GA, Mitchell JFB, Nakicenovic N, Riahi K, Smith SJ, Stouffer RJ, Thomson AM, Weyant JP, Wilbanks TJ. 2010. The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463: 747-756.
33. Orlowsky B, Seneviratne SI. 2012. Global changes in extreme events: regional and seasonal dimension. Clim. Change 110: 669-696.
34. Rogelj J, Hare W, Lowe J, van Vuuren DP, Riahi K, Matthews B, Hanaoka T, Jiang K, Meinshause M. 2011. Emission pathways consistent with a 2°C global temperature limit. Nat. Clim. Change 1: 413-418.
35. Sillmann J, Kharin VV, Zwiers WF, Zhang X, Bronaugh D. 2013. Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: Part 2. Future climate projections. J. Geophys. Res. 118: 2473-2493.
36. Sun JQ, Wang HJ, Yuan W, Chen HP. 2010. Spatial-temporal features of intense snowfall events in China and their possible change. J. Geophys. Res. 115: D16110, doi: 10.1029/2009JD013541.
37. Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA. 2012. An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 93: 485-498.
38. van Vuuren DP, Stehfest E, den Elzen MGJ, Kram T, van Vliet J, Deetman S, Isaac M, Goldewijk K, Hof A, Mendoza Beltran A, Oostenrijk R, van Ruijven B. 2011. RCP2.6: exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2°C. Clim. Change 109: 95-116.
39. Wang HJ, Sun JQ, Chen HP, Zhu YL, Zhang Y, Jiang DB, Lang XM, Fan K, Yu ET, Yang S. 2012. Extreme climate in China: facts, simulation and projection. Meteorol. Z. 21: 279-304.
40. World Bank Group. 2012. Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must Be Avoided. World Bank: Washington, DC, 106 pp.
41. Xu CH, Xu Y. 2012a. The projection of temperature and precipitation over China under RCP scenarios using a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett. 5: 527-533.
42. Xu Y, Xu CH. 2012b. Preliminary assessment of simulations of climate changes over China by CMIP5 multi-models. Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett. 5: 489-494.
43. Xu CH, Shen XY, Xu Y. 2007. An analysis of climate change in East Asia by using the IPCC AR4 simulations(in Chinese). Adv. Clim. Change Res. 3(5): 287-292.
44. Xu Y, Xu CH, Gao XJ, Luo Y. 2009. Projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes over the Yangtze River basin of China in the 21st century. Quat. Int. 208(1-2): 44-52.
45. Xu Y, Gao XJ, Giorgi F. 2010. Upgrades to the reliability ensemble averaging method for producing probabilistic climate change projections. Clim. Res. 41: 61-81.
46. Xu JY, Shi Y, Gao XJ, Giorgi F. 2013. Projected changes in climate extremes over China in the 21st century from a high resolution regional climate model (RegCM3). Chin. Sci. Bull. 58(12): 1443-1452.
47. Zhang Y. 2012. Projections of 2°C warming over the globe and China under RCP4.5. Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett. 5(6): 514-520.
48. Zhang Y, Sun JQ. 2012. Model projection of precipitation minus evaporation over China. Acta Meteorol. Sin. 26(3): 376-388.
49. Zhang X, Alexander L, Hegerl GC, Jones P, Tank AK, Peterson TC, Trewin B, Zwiers FW. 2011. Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data. WIREs Clim. Change 2: 851-870.