Ensemble projection of 1-3°C warming in China

Chinese Science Bulletin

Volumn 54, Issue 18, 2009, Pages 3326-3334

  Jiang, DaBang ^a,b,c   Zhang, Ying ^a,d   Sun, JianQi ^a,c  

^a INSTITUTE OF ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS   (China)

^b MAX PLANCK INSTITUTE FOR BIOGEOCHEMISTRY   (Germany)

^c INSTITUTE OF GEOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS   (China)

^d UNIVERSITY OF CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCIENCES   (China)

Author keywords

Climate model; Projection; Surface temperature; Warming

Indexed keywords

EID: 77952236848     PISSN: 10016538     EISSN: 18619541     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s11434-009-0313-1     Document Type: Article

References (35)

1. Trenberth K E, Jones P D, Ambenje P, et al. Observations: Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, et al., eds. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007. 236-336.
2. Huang R H, Chen J L, Zhou L T, et al. Studies on the relationship between the severe climatic disasters in China and the East Asia climate system (in Chinese). Chin J Atmos Sci, 2003, 27: 770-787.
3. Zhang R H. Research on theories and methods of monitoring and predicting of heavy rainfall in South China (in Chinese). China Awards Sci Tech, 2005. 74-77.
4. Schneider S H, Semenov S, Patwardhan A, et al. Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change. In: Parry M L, Canziani O F, Palutikof J P, et al., eds. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007. 779-810.
5. 2 doubling. Sci China Ser B-Chem, 1993, 36: 451-462.
6. 2 doubling (in Chinese). J Grad School Chin Acad Sci, 1992, 9: 367-372.
7. Chen Q Y, Yu Y Q, Guo Y F, et al. Climatic change in East Asia induced by greenhouse effect (in Chinese). Clim Environ Res, 1996, 1: 113-123.
8. Chen K M, Zhang X H, Jin X Z, et al. A coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model for studies of global climate changes: II. Preliminary analyses on climate drift and enhanced greenhouse effect (in Chinese). Acta Oceanol Sin, 1997, 19: 26-40.
9. 2 increasing for East Asia with IAP/LASG GOALS model. Adv Atmos Sci, 2001, 18: 53-66.
10. Gao X, Zhao Z, Ding Y, et al. Climate change due to greenhouse effects in China as simulated by a regional climate model. Adv Atmos Sci, 2001, 18: 1224-1230.
11. Gao X, Zhao Z, Giorgi F. Changes of extreme events in regional climate simulations over East Asia. Adv Atmos Sci, 2002, 19: 927-942.
12. Gao X J, Zhao Z C, Ding Y H, et al. Climate Change due to greenhouse effects in China as simulated by a regional climate model part II: climate change (in Chinese). Acta Meteorol Sin, 2003, 61: 29-38.
13. Zhang Y J, Dong W J, Yu Y Q, et al. A prediction of trend of the future climate change in the western China (in Chinese). Clim Environ Res, 2004, 9: 342-349.
14. Xu Y L, Zhang Y, Lin E, et al. Analyses on the climate change responses over China under SRES B2 scenario using PRECIS. Chinese Sci Bull, 2006, 51: 2260-2267.
15. Zhang Y, Xu Y, Dong W, et al. A future climate scenario of regional changes in extreme climate events over China using the PRECIS climate model. Geophys Res Lett, 2006, 33: L24702, doi: 10. 1029/2006GL027229.
16. Jiang Y, Wang S, Yang S, et al. Future trends of climatic belts and seasons in China. Int J Climatol, 2008, 28: 1483-1491.
17. Shi Y, Gao X J. Influence of greenhouse effect on eastern China climate simulated by a high resolution regional climate model (in Chinese). Chin J Atmos Sci, 2008, 32: 1006-1018.
18. Yu Y, Zhi H, Wang B, et al. Coupled model simulations of climate changes in the 20th century and beyond. Adv Atmos Sci, 2008, 25: 641-654.
19. Bueh C. Simulation of the future change of East Asian monsoon climate using the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios. Chinese Sci Bull, 2003, 48: 1024-1030.
20. Xu Y L, Xue F, Lin Y H. Changes of surface air temperature and precipitation in China during the 21st century simulated by HadCM2 under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios (in Chinese). Clim Environ Res, 2003, 8: 209-217.
21. Xu Y, Ding Y H, Zhao Z C, et al. A scenario of seasonal climate change of the 21st century in Northwest China (in Chinese). Clim Environ Res, 2003, 8: 19-25.
22. Zhao Z C, Ding Y H, Xu Y, et al. Detection and prediction of climate change for the 20th and 21st century due to human activity in Northwest China (in Chinese). Clim Environ Res, 2003, 8: 26-34.
23. Jiang D B, Wang H J, Lang X M. Multimodel ensemble prediction for climate change trend of China under SRES A2 scenario. Chin J Geophys, 2004, 47: 878-886.
24. Ding Y, Ren G, Zhao Z, et al. Detection, causes and projection of climate change over China: an overview of recent progress. Adv Atmos Sci, 2007, 24: 954-971.
25. Zhang Y, Xu Y L, Dong W J, et al. A preliminary analysis of distribution characteristics of maximum and minimum temperature and diurnal temperature range changes over China under SRES B2 scenario. Chin J Geophys, 2007, 50: 632-642.
26. Zhu Y L, Wang H J. The Arctic and Antarctic oscillations in the IPCC AR4 coupled models (in Chinese). Acta Meteorol Sin, 2008, 6: 993-1004.
27. Wu S H, Dai E F, Huang M, et al. Ecosystem vulnerability of China under B2 climate scenario in the 21st century. Chinese Sci Bull, 2007, 52: 1379-1386.
28. Yao F M, Zhang J H, Sun B N, et al. Simulation and analysis of effects of climate change on rice yields in southern China (in Chinese). Clim Environ Res, 2007, 12: 659-666.
29. Jiang D. Projected potential vegetation change in China under the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios. Adv Atmos Sci, 2008, 25: 126-138.
30. Meehl G A, Stocker T F, Collins W D, et al. Global Climate Projections. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, et al., eds. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007. 748-845.
31. Nakicenovic N, Alcamo J, Davis G, et al. IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2000. 1-599.
32. Jiang D, Wang H J, Lang X. Evaluation of East Asian climatology as simulated by seven coupled models. Adv Atmos Sci, 2005, 22: 479-495.
33. Zhou T, Yu R. Twentieth-century surface air temperature over China and the global simulated by coupled climate models. J Clim, 2006, 19: 5843-5858.
34. Xu C H, Shen X Y, Xu Y. An analysis of climate change in East Asia by using the IPCC AR4 simulations (in Chinese). Adv Clim Change Res, 2007, 3: 287-291.
35. Mitchell T D, Jones P D. An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated highresolution grids. Int J Climatol, 2005, 25: 693-712.