Improved tropical storm forecasts with GOES-13/15 imager radiance assimilation and asymmetric vortex initialization in HWRF

Monthly Weather Review

Volumn 143, Issue 7, 2015, Pages 2485-2505

  Zou, X ^a   Qin, Z ^a,b   Zheng, Y ^a,c  

^a UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND   (United States)

^b NANJING UNIVERSITY OF INFORMATION SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY   (China)

^c NATIONAL CLIMATE CENTER   (China)

Author keywords

Data assimilation; Numerical weather prediction forecasting; Satellite observations

Indexed keywords

FORECASTING; GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITES; STORMS; TROPICS; VORTEX FLOW;

DATA ASSIMILATION; GEOSTATIONARY OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL SATELLITES; NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTIONS; NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION/FORECASTING; RADIANCE ASSIMILATION; SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS; STATISTICAL INTERPOLATION; WEATHER RESEARCH AND FORECASTING MODELS;

WEATHER FORECASTING;

DATA ASSIMILATION; FORECASTING METHOD; GOES; INTERPOLATION; NUMERICAL MODEL; SATELLITE IMAGERY; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS; TROPICAL CYCLONE; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EID: 84938324929     PISSN: 00270644     EISSN: 15200493     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-14-00223.1     Document Type: Article

References (42)

1. Amerault, C., and J. Doyle, 2008: Assimilation of small scale observations with a nested adjoint model. Atmospheric and Environmental Remote Sensing Data Processing and Utilization IV: Readiness for GEOSS II, M. D. Goldberg et al., Eds., International Society for Optical Engineering (SPIE Proceedings, Vol. 7085), 70850R, doi:10.1117/12.795348.
2. Amerault, C., X. Zou, and J. Doyle, 2009: Assimilation of rain-affected radiances with an adjoint model. J. Appl. Remote Sens., 3, 033531, doi:10.1117/1.3153332.
3. Andersson, E., J. Pailleux, J.-N. Thépaut, J. R. Eyre, A. P. McNally, G.A. Kelly, and P. Courtier, 1994: Use of cloud-cleared radiances in three/four-dimensional variational data assimilation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 120, 627-653, doi:10.1002/qj.49712051707.
4. Bao, S., R. Yablonsky, D. Stark, and L. Bernardet, 2012: Community HWRF users guide V3.4a. Developmental Testbed Center Tech. Memo. OAR GSD-42, 124 pp.
5. Bender, M. A., R. J. Ross, R. E. Tuleya, and Y. Kurihara, 1993: Improvements in tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts using the GFDL initialization system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, 2046-2061, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1993)121<2046:IITCTA>2.0.CO;2.
6. Derber, J. C., and W.-S. Wu, 1998: The use of TOVS cloud-cleared radiances in the NCEP SSI analysis system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 2287-2299, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126<2287:TUOTCC>2.0.CO;2.
7. Eyre, J. R., G. Kelly, A. P. McNally, E. Andersson, and A. Persson, 1993: Assimilation of TOVS radiance information through one-dimensional variational analysis. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 119, 1427-1463, doi:10.1002/qj.49711951411.
8. Goerss, J. S., C. S. Velden, and J. D. Hawkins, 1998: The impact of multispectral GOES-8 wind information on Atlantic tropical cyclone forecasts in 1995. Part II:NOGAPSforecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 1219-1227, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126<1219:TIOMGW>2.0.CO;2.
9. Gopalakrishnan, S., S. Goldenberg, T. Quirino, F. Marks, X. Zhang, K.-S. Yeh, R. Atlas, and V. Tallapragada, 2012: Towards improving high-resolution numerical hurricane forecasting: Influence of model horizontal grid resolution, initialization, and physics. Wea. Forecasting, 27, 647-666, doi:10.1175/WAF-D-11-00055.1.
10. Gopalakrishnan, S., and et al., 2012: Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) Model: 2012 science documentation. HWRF v3.4a, Developmental Testbed Center Tech. Rep., 96 pp.
11. Han, Y., F. Weng, Q. Liu, and P. van Delst, 2007: Afast radiative transfer model for SSMIS upper atmosphere sounding channels. J. Geophys. Res., 112, D11121, doi:10.1029/2006JD008208.
12. Heidinger, A., 2011: NOAA NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and Research algorithm theoretical basis document: ABI cloud mask. Version 2.0, 93 pp.
13. Janjić, Z. I., 2003: A nonhydrostatic model based on a new approach. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 82, 271-285, doi:10.1007/s00703-001-0587-6.
14. Janjić, Z. I., J. P. Gerrity, and S. Nickovic, 2001: An alternative approach to nonhydrostatic modeling. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 1164-1178, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<1164:AAATNM>2.0.CO;2.
15. Köpken, C., G. Kelly, and J.-N. Thépaut, 2004: Assimilation of Meteosat radiance data within the 4D-Var system at ECMWF: Assimilation experiments and forecast impact. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 130, 2277-2292, doi:10.1256/qj.02.230.
16. Kurihara, Y., M. A. Bender, and R. J. Ross, 1993: An initialization scheme of hurricane models byvortex specification. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, 2030-2045, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1993)121<2030:AISOHM>2.0.CO;2.
17. Kurihara, Y., M. A. Bender, R. E. Tuleya, and R. J. Ross, 1995: Improvements in the GFDL Hurricane Prediction System. Mon. Wea. Rev., 123, 2791-2801, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1995)123<2791:IITGHP>2.0.CO;2.
18. McNally, A. P., and et al., 2006: The assimilation of AIRS radiance data at ECMWF. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 132, 935-957, doi:10.1256/qj.04.171.
19. Migliorini, S., 2012: On the equivalence between radiance and retrieval assimilation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 258-265, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-10-05047.1.
20. Nieman, S. J., J. Schmetz, and W. P. Menzel, 1993:Acomparison of several techniques to assign heights to cloud tracers. J. Appl. Meteor., 32, 1559-1568, doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1993)032<1559:ACOSTT>2.0.CO;2.
21. Pu, Z., X. Li, and J. Sun, 2009: Impact of airborne Doppler radar data assimilation on the numerical simulation of intensity changes of Hurricane Dennis near a landfall. J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 3351-3365, doi:10.1175/2009JAS3121.1.
22. Purser, R. J., W.-S. Wu, D. F. Parrish, and N. M. Roberts, 2003: Numerical aspects of the application of recursive filters to variational statistical analysis. Part I: Spatially homogeneous and isotropic Gaussian covariances. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 1524-1535, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131<1524:NAOTAO>2.0.CO;2.
23. Purser, R. J., W.-S. Wu, D. F. Parrish, and N. M. Roberts, 2003: Numerical aspects of the application of recursive filters to variational statistical analysis. Part II: Spatially inhomogeneous and anisotropic general covariances. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 1536-1548, doi:10.1175/2543.1.
24. Qin, Z., X. Zou, and F. Weng, 2013: Evaluating added benefits of assimilating GOES imager radiance data in GSI for coastal QPFs. Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 75-92, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-12-00079.1.
25. Rao, P. A., C. S. Velden, and S. A. Braun, 2002: The vertical error characteristics of GOES-derived winds: Description and experiments with numerical weather prediction. J. Appl. Meteor., 41, 253-271, doi:10.1175/1520-0450(2002)041<0253:TVECOG>2.0.CO;2.
26. Soden, B. J., C. S. Velden, and R. E. Tuleya, 2001: The impact of satellite winds on experimental GFDL hurricane model forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 835-852, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<0835:TIOSWO>2.0.CO;2.
27. Stengel, M., P. Undén, M. Lindskog, P. Dahlgren, N. Gustafsson, and R. Bennartz, 2009: Assimilation of SEVIRI infrared radiances with HIRLAM 4D-Var. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 135, 2100-2109, doi:10.1002/qj.501.
28. Su, X., J. Derber, J. Jung, Y. Tahara, D. Keyser, and R. Treadon, 2003: The usage of GOES imager clear-sky radiance in the NCEP Global Data Assimilation System. Preprints, 12th Conf. on Satellite Meteorological and Oceanography, Long Beach, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., P3.20. [Available online at https://ams.confex.com/ams/annual2003/techprogram/paper_56361.htm.].
29. Szyndel, M. D. E., J.-N. Thépaut, and G. Kelly, 2005: Evaluation of potential benefit of SEVIRI water vapour radiance data from Meteosat-8 into global numerical weather prediction analyses. Atmos. Sci. Lett., 6, 105-111, doi:10.1002/asl.98.
30. Tomassini, M., G. Kelly, and R. Saunders, 1999: Use and impact of satellite atmospheric motion winds on ECMWF analyses and forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, 971-986, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1999)127<0971:UAIOSA>2.0.CO;2.
31. Velden, C. S., 1996: Winds derived from geostationary satellite moisture channel observations: Applications and impact on numerical weather prediction. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 60, 37-46, doi:10.1007/BF01029784.
32. Velden, C. S., C. M. Hayden, S. J. Nieman, W. P. Menzel, S. Wazong, and J. S. Goerss, 1997: Upper-tropospheric winds derived from geostationary satellite water vapor observations. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 173-195, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<0173:UTWDFG>2.0.CO;2.
33. Velden, C. S., T. L. Olander, and S. Wazong, 1998: The impact of multispectral GOES-8 wind information on Atlantic tropical cyclone track forecasts in 1995. Part I: Dataset methodology, description and case analysis. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 1202-1218, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126<1202:TIOMGW>2.0.CO;2.
34. Weng, F., 2007: Advances in radiative transfer modeling in support of satellite data assimilation. J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 3799-3807, doi:10.1175/2007JAS2112.1.
35. Wu, W.-S., R. J. Purser, and D. F. Parrish, 2002: Three-dimensional variational analysis with spatially inhomogeneous covariances. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 2905-2916, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2002)130<2905:TDVAWS>2.0.CO;2.
36. Zhang, F., and Y. Weng, 2015: Predicting hurricane intensity and associated hazards: A five-year real-time forecast experiment with the assimilation of airborne Doppler radar observations. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96, 25-33, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00231.1.
37. Zhang, F., Y. Weng, J. F. Gamache, and F. D. Marks, 2011: Performance of convection-permitting hurricane initialization and prediction during 2008-2010 with ensemble data assimilation of innercore airborne Doppler radar observations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L15810, doi:10.1029/2011GL048469.
38. Zhu, T., D.-L. Zhang, and F. Weng, 2002: Impact of the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit measurements on hurricane prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 2416-2432, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2002)130<2416:IOTAMS>2.0.CO;2.
39. Zou, X., and Q. Xiao, 2000: Studies on the initialization and simulation of a mature hurricane using a variational bogus data assimilation scheme. J. Atmos. Sci., 57, 836-860, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(2000)057<0836:SOTIAS>2.0.CO;2.
40. Zou, X., Q. Xiao, A. E. Lipton, and G. D. Modica, 2001: A numerical study of the effect of GOES sounder cloud-cleared brightness temperatures on the prediction of hurricane Felix. J. Appl. Meteor., 40, 34-55, doi:10.1175/1520-0450(2001)040<0034:ANSOTE>2.0.CO;2.
41. Zou, X., Z. Qin, and F. Weng, 2011: Improved coastal precipitation forecasts with direct assimilation of GOES-11/12 imager radiances. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 3711-3729, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-10-05040.1.
42. Zou, X., F. Weng, B. Zhang, L. Lin, Z. Qin, and V. Tallapragada, 2013: Impacts of assimilation of ATMS data in HWRF on track and intensity forecasts of 2012 four landfall hurricanes. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 11 558-11 576, doi:10.1002/2013JD020405.