Variability in temperature-related mortality projections under climate change

Environmental Health Perspectives

Volumn 122, Issue 12, 2015, Pages 1293-1298

  Benmarhnia, Tarik ^a,b   Sottile, Marie France ^c,d   Plante, Céline ^e   Brand, Allan ^a,f   Casati, Barbara ^c   Fournier, Michel ^e   Smargiassi, Audrey ^a,f  

^a UNIVERSITÉ DE MONTRÉAL   (Canada)

^b EHESP SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH   (France)

^c La pollution de l’air les changements climatiques et la santé DSEST Université de Montréal ^*  (Canada)

^d Ministere du Developpement durable de l'Environnement et des Parcs   (Canada)

^e Gouvernement du Quebec   (Canada)

^f INSTITUT NATIONAL DE SANTÉ PUBLIQUE DU QUÉBEC   (Canada)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

OZONE;

AGED; AIR POLLUTION; ARTICLE; CLIMATE CHANGE; DEATH; DISEASE SURVEILLANCE; HUMAN; MORTALITY; PRIORITY JOURNAL; SEASONAL VARIATION; SIMULATION; TEMPERATURE; ADVERSE EFFECTS; CAUSE OF DEATH; EVALUATION STUDY; HEAT; HEAT INJURY; PREDICTIVE VALUE; THEORETICAL MODEL; TRENDS;

CAUSE OF DEATH; CLIMATE CHANGE; HEAT STRESS DISORDERS; HOT TEMPERATURE; HUMANS; MODELS, THEORETICAL; PREDICTIVE VALUE OF TESTS;

EID: 84936804992     PISSN: 00916765     EISSN: 15529924     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1289/ehp.1306954     Document Type: Article

References (45)

1. Armstrong B. 2006. Models for the relationship between ambient temperature and daily mortality. Epidemiology 17:624–631.
2. Cai W, Shi G, Cowan T, Bi D, Ribbe J. 2005. The response of the Southern Annular Mode, the East Australian Current, and the southern mid-latitude ocean circulation to global warming. Geoph Res Lett 32(23):L23706; doi:10.1029/2005GL024701.
3. Campbell-Lendrum D, Woodruff R. 2007. Climate Change: Quantifying the Health Impact at National and Local Levels. WHO Environmental Burden of Disease Series No. 14. Geneva:World Health Organization. Available: http://whqlibdoc.who.int/publications/2007/9789241595674_eng. pdf [accessed 23 October 2014].
4. Caya D, Laprise R, Giguère M, Bergeron G, Blanchet JP, Stocks B, et al. 1995. Description of the Canadian regional climate model. Water Air Soil Pollut 82:477–482.
5. Cheng CS, Campbell M, Li Q, Li G, Auld, H, Day N, et al. 2008. Differential and combined impacts of extreme temperatures and air pollution on human mortality in south–central Canada. Part II: future estimates. Air Qual Atmos Health 1:223–235.
6. Christensen JH, Hewitson B, Busuioc A, Chen A, Gao X, Held I, et al. 2007. Regional climate projections. In: Climate Change, 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, et al., eds). Cambridge, UK:Cambridge University Press, 847–940. Available: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter11.pdf [accessed 21 October 2014].
7. Costello A, Abbas M, Allen A, Ball S, Bell S, Bellamy R, et al. 2009. Managing the health effects of climate change: Lancet and University College London Institute for Global Health Commission. Lancet 373(9676):1693–1733.
8. de Elía R, Côté H. 2010. Climate and climate change sensitivity to model configuration in the Canadian RCM over North America. Meteorologische Zeitschrift 19:325–339.
9. Dequé M. 2007. Frequency of precipitation and temperature extremes over France in an anthropogenic scenario: model results and statistical correction according to observed values. Global Planetary Change 57:16–26.
10. Doyon B, Bélanger D, Gosselin P. 2008. The potential impact of climate change on annual and seasonal mortality for three cities in Quebec, Canada. Int J Health Geogr 7:23; doi:10.1186/1476-072X-7-23.
11. Ebi KL. 2008. Healthy people 2100: modeling population health impacts of climate change. Clim Change 88:5–19.
12. Ebi KL, Gamble JL. 2005. Summary of a workshop on the development of health models and scenarios: strategies for the future. Environ Health Perspect 113:335–338; doi:10.1289/ehp.7380.
13. Environment Canada. 2012. Climate. Available: http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca [accessed 1 May 2012].
14. Flato GM, Boer GJ, Lee WG, McFarlane NA, Ramsden D, Reader MC, et al. 2000. The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis global coupled model and its climate. Clim Dyn 16:451–467.
15. Goldberg MS, Gasparrini A, Armstrong B, Valois MF. 2011. The short-term influence of temperature on daily mortality in the temperate climate of Montreal, Canada. Environ Res 111:853–860.
16. Gosling SN, Lowe JA, McGregor GR, Pelling M, Malamud BD. 2009. Associations between elevated atmospheric temperature and human mortality: a critical review of the literature. Clim Change 92:299–341.
17. Hajat S, Kosatky T. 2010. Heat-related mortality: a review and exploration of heterogeneity. J Epidemiol Community Health 64(9):753–760.
18. Hajat S, Kovats RS, Lachowycz K. 2007. Heat-related and cold-related deaths in England and Wales: who is at risk? Occup Environ Med 64:93–100.
19. Halonen JI, Zanobetti A, Sparrow D, Vokonas PS, Schwartz J. 2011. Relationship between outdoor temperature and blood pressure. Occup Environ Med 68:296–301.
20. Huang C, Barnett AG, Wang X, Vaneckova P, FitzGerald G, Tong S. 2011. Projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios: a systematic review. Environ Health Perspect 119:1681–1690; doi:10.1289/ehp.1103456.
21. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2000. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Cambridge, UK:Cambridge University Press. Available: http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sres/emission/index.php?idp=0 [accessed 14 October 2014].
22. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2001. Climate Change 2001: Third Assessment Report. Available: http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/ [accessed 14 October 2014].
23. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2007a. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE, eds). Cambridge, UK:Cambridge University Press. Available: http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_wg2_report_impacts_adaptation_and_vulnerability.htm [accessed 10 October 2014].
24. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2007b. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report: Geneva:IPCC. Available: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf [accessed 10 October 2014].
25. Jungclaus JH, Keenlyside N, Botzet M, Haak H, Luo JJ, Latif M, et al. 2006. Ocean circulation and tropical variability in the coupled model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. J Climate 19:3952–3972.
26. Kovats RS, Hajat S. 2008. Heat stress and public health: a critical review. Annu Rev Public Health 29:41–55.
27. Laprise R. 2008. Regional climate modelling. J Comput Phys 227:3641–3666.
28. Li T, Horton RM, Kinney PL. 2013. Projections of seasonal patterns in temperature-related deaths for Manhattan, New York. Nat Clim Change 3:717–721.
29. Lobato I, Velasco C. 2004. A simple test of normality of time series. Econometric Theory 20:671–689.
30. Martin SL, Cakmak S, Hebbern CA, Avramescu ML, Tremblay N. 2011. Climate change and future temperature-related mortality in 15 Canadian cities. Int J Biometeorol 56(4):605–619.
31. McFarlane NA, Boer GJ, Blanchet JP, Lazare M. 1992. The Canadian Climate Centre second-generation general circulation model and its equilibrium climate. J Clim 5:1013–1044.
32. McMichael AJ, Woodruff RE, Hales S. 2006. Climate change and human health: present and future risks. Lancet 367:859–869.
33. Meehl GA, Covey C, Taylor KE, Delworth T, Stouffer RJ, Latif M, et al. 2007. The WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset: a new era in climate change research. Bull Am Meteor Soc 88:1383–1394.
34. Mpelasoka FS, Chiew FHS. 2009. Influence of rainfall scenario construction methods on runoff projections. J Hydrometeor 10:1168–1183.
35. O’Neill MS, Ebi KL. 2009. Temperature extremes and health: impacts of climate variability and change in the United States. J Occup Environ Med 51:13–25.
36. Paquin D. 2010. Évaluation du MRCC4 en passé récent (1961–1999). Climate Simulation Group, Rapport interne no 15. Montreal:Consortium Ouranos.
37. Patz J, Campbell-Lendrum D, Gibbs H, Woodruff R. 2008. Health impact assessment of global climate change: expanding on comparative risk assessment approaches for policy making. Annu Rev Public Health 29:27–39.
38. Patz JA, Campbell-Lendrum D, Holloway T, Foley JA. 2005. Impact of regional climate change on human health. Nature 438:310–317.
39. Peng RD, Bobb JF, Tebaldi C, McDaniel L, Bell ML, Dominici F. 2011. Toward a quantitative estimate of future heat wave mortality under global climate change. Environ Health Perspect 119:701–706; doi:10.1289/ehp.1002430.
40. Plummer DA, Caya D, Frigon A, Côté H, Giguère M, Paquin D, et al. 2006. Climate and climate change over North America as simulated by the Canadian RCM. J Climate 19:3112–3132.
41. Rogot E, Sorlie PD, Backlund E. 1992. Air-conditioning and mortality in hot weather. Am J Epidemiol 136:106–116.
42. Smargiassi A, Goldberg MS, Plante C, Fournier M, Baudouin Y, Kosatsky T. 2009. Variation of daily warm season mortality as a function of micro-urban heat islands. J Epidemiol Community Health 63:659–664.
43. Teng J, Chiew F, Timbal B, Vaze J, Wang Y, Wang B, et al. 2011. Assessing historical and future runoff modelled using rainfall from the analogue downscaling method. In: MODSIM11, 19th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Perth, Australia, 12–16 December 2011 Chan F
44. Marinova D, Andersson R, eds. Perth, Australia:Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, 2789–2795. Available: http://www.mssanz.org.au/modsim2011/F5/teng.pdf [accessed 14 October 2014].
45. Zanobetti A, Schwartz J, Samoli E, Gryparis A, Touloumi G, Atkinson R, et al. 2002. The temporal pattern of mortality responses to air pollution: a multicity assessment of mortality displacement. Epidemiology 13:87–93.