Preparedness for emerging infectious diseases: Pathways from anticipation to action

Epidemiology and Infection

Volumn 143, Issue 10, 2015, Pages 2043-2058

  Brookes, V J ^a,b   Hernandez Jover M ^b   Black, P F ^c   Ward, M P ^a,d  

^a UNIVERSITY OF SYDNEY   (Australia)

^b CHARLES STURT UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

^c Essential Foresight   (Australia)

^d University of Sydney   (Australia)

Author keywords

Environmental scanning; foresighting; horizon scanning; prioritization; risk assessment; simulation modelling; surveillance

Indexed keywords

ALERTNESS; ANIMAL WELFARE; ANTICIPATION; ARTICLE; DATA MINING; ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING; HEALTH CARE PLANNING; HEALTH PROGRAM; HEALTH SURVEY; HUMAN; INFECTION; INFECTION CONTROL; INFORMATION DISSEMINATION; MEDICAL DECISION MAKING; NONHUMAN; ONLINE SYSTEM; PUBLIC HEALTH; RESOURCE ALLOCATION; RISK ASSESSMENT; SIMULATION; ANIMAL; CIVIL DEFENSE; COMMUNICABLE DISEASES, EMERGING; DISEASE TRANSMISSION; EMERGENCY MEDICINE; PREVENTION AND CONTROL; PROCEDURES; SENTINEL SURVEILLANCE; VETERINARY; VETERINARY MEDICINE;

ANIMALS; CIVIL DEFENSE; COMMUNICABLE DISEASE CONTROL; COMMUNICABLE DISEASES, EMERGING; DISEASE TRANSMISSION, INFECTIOUS; EMERGENCY MEDICINE; HUMANS; SENTINEL SURVEILLANCE; VETERINARY MEDICINE;

EID: 84930753189     PISSN: 09502688     EISSN: 14694409     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1017/S095026881400315X     Document Type: Article

References (93)

1. Morens DM, et al. Pandemic influenza's 500th anniversary. Clinical Infectious Diseases 2010; 51: 1442-1444.
2. Fauci AS, Folkers GK. The world must build on three decades of scientific advances to enable a new generation to live free of HIV/AIDS. Health Affairs 2012; 31: 1529-1536.
3. Jones KE, et al. Global trends in emerging infectious diseases. Nature 2008; 451: 990-U994.
4. Brownlie J, et al. Foresight. Infectious diseases: preparing for the future. Future threats. London: Office of Science and Innovation, 2006.
5. Woolhouse MEJ, Gowtage-Sequeria S. Host range and emerging and reemerging pathogens. Emerging Infectious Diseases 2005; 11: 1842-1847.
6. Heller J, et al. Assessing the probability of acquisition of meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) in a dog using a nested stochastic simulation model and logistic regression sensitivity analysis. Preventive Veterinary Medicine 2011; 99: 211-224.
7. Butaye P, et al. Antimicrobial resistance in bacteria from animals and the environment Preface. Veterinary Microbiology 2014; 171: 269-272.
8. World Health Organisation. Antimicrobial resistance: global report on surveillance. 2014 April 2014.
9. Morse SS. Factors in the emergence of infectious diseases. Emerging Infectious Diseases 1995; 1: 7-15.
10. Louria DB. Emerging and re-emerging infections: the societal determinants. Futures 2000; 32: 581-594.
11. Jones BA, et al. Zoonosis emergence linked to agricultural intensification and environmental change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 2013; 110: 8399-8404.
12. Black P, Nunn M. Impact of climate change and environmental change on emerging and re-emerging animal diseases and animal production. 2010. Compendium of technical items presented to the OIE World Assembly of Delegates or to OIE Regional Commissions, 2009. 978-92-9044-789-4.
13. Garmendia AE, Van Kruiningen HJ, French RA. The West Nile virus: its recent emergence in North America. Microbes and Infection 2001; 3: 223-229.
14. Brown EBE, et al. Assessing the risks of West Nile virus-infected mosquitoes from transatlantic aircraft: implications for disease emergence in the United Kingdom. Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases 2012; 12: 310-320.
15. Hernández-Jover M, Roche S, Ward MP. The human and animal health impacts of introduction and spread of an exotic strain of West Nile virus in Australia. Preventive Veterinary Medicine 2013; 109: 186-204.
16. Baylis M. Research gaps in understanding how climate change will affect arboviral diseases. Animal Health Research Reviews 2013; 14: 143-146.
17. Guis H, et al. Modelling the effects of past and future climate on the risk of bluetongue emergence in Europe. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 2012; 9: 339-350.
18. Horton A. A simple guide to successful foresight. Foresight 1999; 1: 5-9.
19. Willis NG, et al. Using foresight to prepare animal health today for tomorrow's challenges. Canadian Veterinary Journal 2011; 52: 614-618.
20. King DA, Thomas SM. Taking science out of the box-foresight recast. Science 2007; 316: 1701-1702.
21. Slaughter RA. Futures for the third millenium: enabling the forward view. Prospect Media, 1999.
22. Frishammar J. Characteristics in information processing approaches. International Journal of Information Management 2002; 22: 143-156.
23. Voros J. A generic foresight process framework. Foresight 2003; 5: 10-21.
24. Mildenberg Z, et al. Equine encephalosis virus in Israel. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases 2009; 56: 291-291.
25. Walsh AL, Morgan D. Identifying hazards, assessing the risks. Veterinary Record 2005; 157: 684-687.
26. Palmer S, Brown D, Morgan D. Early qualitative risk assessment of the emerging zoonotic potential of animal diseases. British Medical Journal 2005; 331: 1256-1260.
27. Morgan D, et al. Assessing the risk from emerging infections. Epidemiology and Infection 2009; 137: 1521-1530.
28. Hitchcock P, et al. Challenges to global surveillance and response to infectious disease outbreaks of international importance. Biosecurity and Bioterrorism-Biodefense Strategy Practice and Science 2007; 5: 206.
29. Dufour B, Hendrikx P. In: Dufour B, Hendrikx P, ed. Epidemiological Surveillance in Animal Health, 2nd edn. CIRAD, FAO, OIE and AEEMA, 2009.
30. Declich S, Carter AO. Public-health surveillance-historical origins, methods and evaluation. Bulletin of the World Health Organization 1994; 72: 285-304.
31. German RR, et al. Updated guidelines for evaluating public health surveillance systems: recommendations from the Guidelines Working Group. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. Recommendations and Reports 2001; 50: 1-35.
32. Halliday J, et al. Bringing together emerging and endemic zoonoses surveillance: shared challenges and a common solution. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, Series B: Biological Sciences 2012; 367: 2872-2880.
33. Ward MP, Kelman M. Companion animal disease surveillance: a new solution to an old problem? Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology 2011; 2: 147-157.
34. Chan EH, et al. Global capacity for emerging infectious disease detection. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 2010; 107: 21701-21706.
35. Vrbova L, et al. Systematic review of surveillance systems for emerging zoonoses. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases 2010; 57: 154-161.
36. Buehler JW, et al. Framework for evaluating public health surveillance systems for early detection of outbreaks: recommendations from the CDC Working Group. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. Recommendations and Reports 2004; 53: 1-11.
37. Walker JG. New media methods for syndromic surveillance and disease modelling. CAB Reviews 2013; 8: 1-13.
38. Robertson C, et al. Mobile phone-based infectious disease surveillance system, Sri Lanka. Emerging Infectious Diseases 2010; 16: 1524-1531.
39. Rosewell A, et al. Mobile Phone-based syndromic surveillance system, Papua New Guinea. Emerging Infectious Diseases 2013; 19: 1811-1818.
40. Syibli M, et al. The Power of One: realising the dream of an integrated animal health information system in Indonesia. International Conference on Animal Health Surveillance 2 (ICAHS2), Havana, Cuba, 2014.
41. World Health Organization. International Health Regulations (2005). World Health Organization, 2008.
42. Olson DR, et al. Reassessing Google flu trends data for detection of seasonal and pandemic influenza: a comparative epidemiological study at three geographic scales. PLoS Computational Biology 2013; 9: e1003256.
43. Wilson SJ, Ward MP, Garner MG. A framework for assessing the intangible impacts of emergency animal disease. Preventive Veterinary Medicine 2013; 111: 194-199.
44. Butler CD. Infectious disease emergence and global change: thinking systemically in a shrinking world. Infectious Diseases of Poverty 2012; 1: 5-5.
45. Cox R, Sanchez J, Revie CW. Multi-criteria decision analysis tools for prioritising emerging or re-emerging infectious diseases associated with climate change in Canada. PLoS ONE 2013; 8: e68338.
46. Havelaar AH, et al. Prioritizing emerging zoonoses in the Netherlands. PLoS ONE 2010; 5: e13965.
47. Ng V, Sargeant JM. A quantitative and novel approach to the prioritization of zoonotic diseases in North America: a public perspective. PLoS ONE 2012; 7: e48519.
48. Ng V, Sargeant JM. A quantitative approach to the prioritization of zoonotic diseases in North America: a health professionals' perspective. PLoS ONE 2013; 8: e72172.
49. McKenzie J, Simpson H, Langstaff I. Development of methodology to prioritise wildlife pathogens for surveillance. Preventive Veterinary Medicine 2007; 81: 194-210.
50. Economopoulou A, et al. Infectious diseases prioritisation for event-based surveillance at the European Union level for the 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games. Eurosurveillance 2014; 19: 6-13.
51. Balabanova Y, et al. Communicable diseases prioritized for surveillance and epidemiological research: results of a standardized prioritization procedure in Germany, 2011. PLoS ONE 2011; 6.
52. Doherty JA. Establishing priorities for national communicable disease surveillance. Canadian Journal of Infectious Diseases 2000; 11: 21-24.
53. Carter A, National Advisory Committee on Epidemiology Subcommittee. Establishing goals, techniques and priorities for national communicable disease surveillance. Canadian Journal of Infectious Diseases 1991; 2: 37-40.
54. Humblet M-F, et al. Multidisciplinary and evidencebased method for prioritizing diseases of foodproducing animals and zoonoses. Emerging Infectious Diseases 2012; 18.
55. Del Rio Vilas VJ, et al. An integrated process and management tools for ranking multiple emerging threats to animal health. Preventive Veterinary Medicine 2013; 108: 94-102.
56. Brookes VJ, et al. Building a picture: Prioritisation of exotic diseases for the pig industry in Australia using multi-criteria decision analysis. Preventive Veterinary Medicine 2014; 113: 103-117.
57. Giesecke J. Choosing diseases for surveillance. Lancet 1999; 353: 344-344.
58. Keeney RL. Common mistakes in making value tradeoffs. Operations Research 2002; 50: 935-945.
59. Steele K, et al. Uses and misuses of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) in environmental decision making. Risk Analysis 2009; 29: 26-33.
60. Dodgson J, et al. Multi-criteria Analysis: a Manual: Department for Communities and Local Government: London, 2009.
61. Brookes VJ, et al. Identifying and measuring stakeholder preferences for disease prioritisation: a case study of the pig industry in Australia. Preventive Veterinary Medicine 2014; 113: 118-131.
62. Ng V, Sargeant JM. A stakeholder-informed approach to the identification of criteria for the prioritization of zoonoses in Canada. PLoS ONE 2012; 7: e29752.
63. Döring M, Nerlich B. The Social and Cultural Impact of Foot-and-Mouth Disease in the UK in 2001: Experiences and Analyses: Manchester University Press, 2009.
64. Bragge J, et al. Bibliometric analysis of multiple criteria decision making/multiattribute utility theory. In: Ehrgott MN, Naujoks B, Stewart TJ, Wallenius J, eds. Multiple Criteria Decision Making for Sustainable Energy and Transportation Systems: Proceedings of the 19th International Conference on Multiple Criteria Decision Making, 2010, pp. 259-268.
65. Linkov I, et al. Risk informed decision framework for integrated evaluation of countermeasures against CBRN threats. Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management 2012; 9.
66. Del Rio Vilas VJ, et al. Prioritization of capacities for the elimination of dog-mediated human rabies in the Americas: building the framework. Pathogens and Global Health 2013; 107: 340-345.
67. Mintiens K, Vose D. Multi-criteria decision analysis for evaluating control options during FMD outbreaks. Society for Vererinary Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, 2012; Glasgow.
68. MacDiarmid SC, Pharo HJ. Risk analysis: assessment, management and communication. Revue Scientifique et Technique 2003; 22: 397-408.
69. Vose D. Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide, 3rd edn. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons, 2008.
70. World Trade Organization. Understanding the WTO Agreement on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures, 1998 (https://www.wto.org/english/tratop-e/sps-e/spsund-e.htm). Accessed 25 July 2014.
71. World Organization for Animal Health (OIE). Import risk analysis, chapter 2•1. In: Terrestrial Animal Health Code 2009.
72. Brown C. Emerging diseases: the global express. Veterinary Pathology 2010; 47: 9-14.
73. Murray KO, Mertens E, Despres P. West Nile virus and its emergence in the United States of America. Veterinary Research 2010; 41.
74. Wilkins PA, Del Piero F. West Nile virus: lessons from the 21st century. Journal of Veterinary Emergency and Critical Care 2004; 14: 2-14.
75. Pollock SL, et al. Raising chickens in city backyards: the public health role. Journal of Community Health 2012; 37: 734-742.
76. Kilpatrick AM, et al. Predicting pathogen introduction: West Nile virus spread to Galapagos. Conservation Biology 2006; 20: 1224-1231.
77. Kilpatrick AM, et al. Quantitative risk assessment of the pathways by which West Nile Virus could reach Hawaii. Ecohealth 2004; 1: 205-209.
78. Douglas KO, et al. A quantitative risk assessment of West Nile virus introduction into Barbados. West Indian Medical Journal 2007; 56: 394-397.
79. World Organization for Animal Health (OIE), International Union for Conservation of Nature. Guidelines for wildlife disease risk analysis. Paris: World Organization for Animal Health and International Union for Conservation of Nature, 2014.
80. Ward MP, Hernández-Jover M. A generic rabies risk assessment tool to support surveillance. Preventive Veterinary Medicine (in press).
81. Hagerman AD, et al. Emergency vaccination to control foot-and-mouth disease: implications of its inclusion as a U.S. Policy Option. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy 2012; 34: 119-146.
82. Ward MP, et al. Simulation of foot-and-mouth disease spread within an integrated livestock system in Texas, USA. Preventive Veterinary Medicine 2009; 88: 286-297.
83. Cowled BD, et al. Controlling disease outbreaks in wildlife using limited culling: modelling classical swine fever incursions in wild pigs in Australia. Veterinary Research 2012; 43.
84. Anderson I. Return to an Address of the Honourable the House of Commons Dated 22 July 2002 for the Foot and Mouth Disease 2001: Lessons to be Learned Inquiry Report. London: The Stationery Office, 2002.
85. Phillips N, Bridgeman J, Ferguson-Smith M. The BSE inquiry. London: The Stationery Office, 2000.
86. Deodhar NS, Yemul VL, Banerjee K. Plague that never was: a review of the alleged plague outbreaks in India in 1994. Journal of Public Health Policy 1998; 19: 184-199.
87. Check Hayden E. World struggles to stop Ebola. Nature 2014; 512: 355-356.
88. ProMED-mail. Ebola virus disease-West Africa (90): Sierra Leone, Ghana meeting, history, 2014. Archive Number: 20140716•2615640.
89. Scudamore J. Partnership, priorities and professionalism- A strategy for enhancing veterinary surveillance in the UK. Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, 2003.
90. Stärk KDC, et al. One health surveillance: more than a buzz word? Preventive Veterinary Medicine (in press).
91. Chunara R, Smolinski MS, Brownstein JS. Why we need crowd sourced data in infectious disease surveillance. Current Infectious Disease Reports 2013; 15: 316-319.
92. Qi X, et al. Whole-genome sequence of a reassortant H5N6 avian influenza virus isolated from a live poultry market in China, 2013. Genome Announcements 2014; 2.
93. Lam TT-Y, et al. The genesis and source of the H7N9 influenza viruses causing human infections in China. Nature 2013; 502: 241.