Multi-annual droughts in the English Lowlands: A review of their characteristics and climate drivers in the winter half-year

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences

Volumn 19, Issue 5, 2015, Pages 2353-2375

  Folland, C K ^a,b   Hannaford, J ^c   Bloomfield, J P ^d   Kendon, M ^a   Svensson, C ^c   Marchant, B P ^d   Prior, J ^a   Wallace, E ^a  

^a MET OFFICE   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF GOTHENBURG   (Sweden)

^c Centre of Ecology and Hydrology   (United Kingdom)

^d BRITISH GEOLOGICAL SURVEY   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE; ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; CLIMATOLOGY; FLOW OF WATER; GROUNDWATER; NICKEL; OCEANOGRAPHY; RAIN; RIVERS; STREAM FLOW; SURFACE WATERS; WATER RESOURCES;

DENSELY POPULATED REGIONS; DROUGHT MANAGEMENT; EARLY WARNING SYSTEM; QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST); SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX; STANDARDIZED STREAMFLOW INDICES;

DROUGHT;

ATLANTIC MULTIDECADAL OSCILLATION; CLIMATE FORCING; DROUGHT STRESS; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; LITERATURE REVIEW; LOWLAND ENVIRONMENT; POPULATION DENSITY; QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; WATER RESOURCE;

UNITED KINGDOM;

EID: 84930221979     PISSN: 10275606     EISSN: 16077938     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5194/hess-19-2353-2015     Document Type: Review

References (93)

1. Allan, R. J. and Ansell, T. J.: A new globally complete monthly historical gridded mean sea level pressure data set (HadSLP2): 1850-2004, J. Climate, 19, 5816-5842, 2006.
2. Anstey, J A. and Shepherd, T. G.: High-latitude influence of the quasi-biennial oscillation, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 140, 1-21, doi:10.1002/qj.2132, 2014.
3. Belleflamme, A., Fettweis, X., Lang, C., and Erpicum, M.: Current and future atmospheric circulation at 500 hPa over Greenland simulated by the CMIP3 and CMIP5 global models, Clim. Dynam., 41, 2061-2080, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1538-2, 2013.
4. Blackburn, M. and Hoskins, B. J.: Atmospheric variability and extreme autumn rainfall in the UK, http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~mike/extremes/ (last access: 7 May 2015), 2001.
5. Bloomfield, J. P. and Marchant, B. P.: Analysis of groundwater drought building on the standardised precipitation index approach, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4769-4787, doi:10.5194/hess-17-4769-2013, 2013.
6. Booth, B. B. B., Dunstone, N. J., Halloran, P. R., Andrews, T., and Bellouin, N.: Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentiethcentury North Atlantic climate variability, Nature, 484, 228-232, doi:10.1038/nature10946, 2012.
7. Burke, E. J. and Brown, S. J.: Regional drought over the UK and changes in the future, J. Hydrol., 394, 471-485, 2010.
8. Chen, H. and Schneider, E. K.: Comparison of the SST forced responses between coupled and uncoupled climate simulations, J. Climate, 27, 740-756, 2014.
9. Chiverton, A., Hannaford, J., Holman, I., Prudhomme, C., Bloomfield, J., and Hess, T.: Which catchment characteristics influence the temporal dependence of river flows, Hydrol. Process., 29, 1353-1369, doi:10.1002/hyp.10252, 2014.
10. Cohen, J., Screen, J. A., Furtado, J. C., Barlow, M., Whittleston, D., Coumou, D., Francis, J., Dethloff, K., Entekhabi, D., Overland, J., and Jones, J.: Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather, Nat. Geosci., 7, 627-637, doi:10.1038/ngeo2234, 2014.
11. Compo, G. P., Whitaker, J. S., Sardeshmukh, P. D., Matsui, N., Allan, R. J., Yin, X., Gleason, B. E., Vose, R. S., Rutledge, G., Bessemoulin, P., Brönnimann, S., Brunet, M., Crouthamel, R. I., Grant, A. N., Groisman, P. Y., Jones, P. D., Kruk, M. C., Kruger, A. C., Marshall, G. J., Maugeri, M., Mok, H. Y. Nordli, Ø., Ross, T. F., Trigo, R. M., Wang, X. L., Woodruff, S. D., and Worley, S. J.: The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 1-28, doi:10.1002/qj.776, 2011.
12. Davies, J. R., Rowell, D. P., and Folland, C. K.: North Atlantic and European seasonal predictability using an ensemble of multidecadal AGCM simulations, Int. J. Climatol., 12, 1263-1284, 1997.
13. Easey, J., Prudhomme, C., and Hannah, D. M.: Seasonal Forecasting of river flows: a review of the state of the art, in: Climate Variability and Change: Hydrological Impacts, edited by: Demuth, S., Gustard, A., Planos, E., Scaneta, F., and Servat, E., IAHS Publication 308, International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) press, Wallingford, UK, 158-162, 2006.
14. Environment Agency: Underground, under threat, Environment Agency Report, Bristol, UK, 2006.
15. Environment Agency:Water for people and the environment.Water resources strategy for England and Wales, Environment Agency Report, Bristol, UK, 2009.
16. Environment Agency: Review of the 2010-12 drought and the prospects for ware resources in 2013, 1-48, http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20140328084622/ http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/research/library/publications/131328.aspx. (last access: 11 May 2015), 2012.
17. Fereday, D. R., Knight, J. R., Scaife, A. A., Folland, C. K., and Philipp, A.: Cluster analysis of North Atlantic/European circulation types and links with tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, J. Climate, 21, 3687-3703, doi:10.1175/2007JCLI1875.1, 2008.
18. Fleig, A. K., Tallaksen, L. M., Hisdal, H., and Hannah, D. M.: Regional hydrological drought in north-western Europe: linking a new Regional Drought Area Index with weather types, Hydrol. Process., 25, 1163-1179, doi:10.1002/hyp.7644, 2011.
19. Folland, C. K.: Regional-scale interannual variability of climate - a north-west European perspective, Meteorol. Mag., 112, 163-183, 1983.
20. Folland, C. K., Knight, J., Linderholm, H. W., Fereday, D., Ineson, S., and Hurrell, J. W.: The summer North Atlantic Oscillation: past, present and future, J. Climate, 22, 1082-1103, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2459, 2009.
21. Folland, C. K., Scaife, A. A., Lindesay, J., and Stevenson, D. B.: How potentially predictable is northern European winter climate a season ahead?, Int. J. Climatol., 32, 801-818, doi:10.1002/joc.2314, 2012.
22. Fowler, H. J. and Kilsby, C. G.: A weather-type approach to analysing water resource drought in the Yorkshire region from 1881 to 1998, J. Hydrol., 262, 177-192, 2002.
23. Fraedrich, K.: European Grosswetter during the warm and cold extremes of the El Niño/ Southern Oscillation, Int. J. Climatol., 10, 21-32, 1990.
24. Fraedrich, K.: An ENSO impact on Europe? A Review, Tellus A, 46, 541-552, 1994.
25. Fraedrich, K. and Müller, K.: Climate Anomalies in Europe Associated with ENSO extremes, Int. J. Climatol., 12, 25-31, 1992.
26. Fröhlich, C.: Solar Irradiance Variability Since 1978: Revision of the PMOD composite during Solar Cycle 21, Space Sci. Rev., 125, 53-65, 2006.
27. Gillett, N. P., Zwiers, F.W.,Weaver, A. J., and Stott, P. A.: Detection of human influence on sea-level pressure, Nature, 422, 292-294, 2003.
28. Hanna, E., Cropper, T. E., Jones, P. D., Scaife, A. A., and Allan, R.: Recent seasonal asymmetric changes in the NAO (a marked summer decline and increased winter variability) and associated changes in the AO and Greenland Blocking Index, Int. J. Climatol., doi:10.1002/joc.4157, in press, 2014.
29. Hannaford, J. and Marsh, T.: An assessment of trends in UK runoff and low flows using a network of undisturbed catchments, Int. J. Climatol., 26, 1237-1253, 2006.
30. Hannaford, J., Lloyd-Hughes, B., Keef, C., Parry, S., and Prudhomme, C.: Examining the large-scale spatial coherence of European drought using regional indicators of precipitation and streamflow deficit, Hydrol. Process., 25, 1146-1162, 2011.
31. Hazeleger, W., Severijns, C., Semmler, T., Ştefəanscu, S., Yang, S., Wang, X., Wyser, K., Dutra, E., Baldasano, J. M., Bintanja, R., Bougeault, P., Caballero, R., Ekman, A. M. L., Christensen, J. H., van den Hurk, B., Jimenez, P., Jones, C., Kållberg, P., Koenigk, T., McGrath, R., Miranda, P., Van Noije, T., Palmer, T., Parodi, J. A., Schmith, T., Selten, F., Storelvmo, T., Sterl, A., Tapamo, H., Vancoppenolle, M., Viterbo, P., and Willén, U.: EC-Earth: A Seamless Earth-System Prediction Approach in Action, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 91, 1357-1363, doi:10.1175/2010BAMS2877.1, 2010.
32. Holman, I. P., Rivas-Casado, M., Howden, N. J. K., Bloomfield, J. P., and Williams, A. T.: Linking North Atlantic oceanatmosphere teleconnection patterns and hydrogeological responses in temperate groundwater systems, Hydrol. Process., 23, 3123-3126, doi:10.1002/Hyp.7466, 2009.
33. Ineson, S. and Scaife, A. A.: The role of the stratosphere in the European climate response to El Niño, Nat. Geosci., 2, 32-36, doi:10.1038/NGEO381, 2008.
34. Ineson, S., Scaife, A. A., Knight, J. R., Manners, J. C., Dunstone, N. J., Gray, L. J., and Haigh, J. D.: Solar Forcing of Winter Climate Variability in the Northern Hemisphere, Nat. Geosci., 4, 753-757, doi:10.1038/ngeo1282, 2011.
35. Jackson, C. R., Meister, R., and Prudhomme, C.: Modelling the effects of climate change and its uncertainty on UK Chalk groundwater resources from an ensemble of global climate model projections, J. Hydrol., 399, 12-28, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.12.028, 2011.
36. Jones, P. D. and Lister, D. H.: Riverflow reconstructions for 15 catchments over England and Wales and an assessment of hydrologic drought since 1865, Int. J. Climatol., 18, 999-1013, 1998.
37. Jones, P. D., Osborn, T. J., Harpham, C., and Briffa, K. R.: The development of Lamb weather types: from subjective analysis of weather charts to objective approaches using reanalyses, Weather, 69, 128-132, doi:10.1002/wea.2255, 2014.
38. Kalnay, E., Kanamitsu, M., Kistler, R., Collins, W., Deaven, D., Gandin, L., Iredell, M., Saha, S., White, G.,Woollen, J., Zhu, Y., Chelliah, M., Ebisuzaki, W., Higgins, W., Janowaiak, J., Mo, K. C., Ropelewski, C., Wang, J., Leetma, A., Reynolds, R., Jenne, R., and Joseph, D.: The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 77, 437-471, 1996.
39. Kaplan, A., Cane, M. A., Kushnir, Y., Clement, A. C., Blumenthal, M. B., and Rajagopalan, B.: Analyses of global sea surface temperature 1856-1991, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 103, 18567-18589, 1998.
40. Kendon, M., Marsh, T., and Parry, S.: The 2010-2012 drought in England and Wales, Weather, 68, 88-95, 2013.
41. Kingston, D. G., Fleig, A. K., Tallaksen, L. M., and Hannah, D. M.: Ocean-Atmosphere Forcing of Summer Streamflow Drought in Great Britain, J. Hydrometeorol., 14, 331-344, doi:10.1175/Jhm-D-11-0100.1, 2013.
42. Knight, J. R., Allan, R. J., Folland, C. K., Vellinga, M., and Mann, M. E.: A signature of persistent natural thermohaline circulation cycles in observed climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L20708, doi:10.1029/2005GL024233, 2005.
43. Knight, J. R., Folland, C. K., and Scaife, A. A.: Climatic Impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L17706, doi:10.1029/2006GL026242, 2006.
44. Laizé, C. L. R. and Hannah, D. M.: Modification of climate-river flow associations by basin properties, J. Hydrol., 389, 186-204, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.05.048, 2010.
45. Lloyd-Hughes, B. and Saunders, M. A.: Seasonal prediction of European spring precipitation from El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Local sea-surface temperatures, Int. J. Climatol., 22, 1-14, 2002.
46. Lockwood, M., Harrison, R. G., Woollings, T., and Solanki, S.: Are cold winters in Europe associated with low solar activity?, Environ. Res. Lett., 5, 024001, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/024001, 2010.
47. MacLachlan, C., Arribas, A., Peterson, K. A., Maidens, A., Fereday, D., Scaife, A. A., Gordon, M., Vellinga, M.,Williams, A., Comer, R. E., Camp, J., Xavier, P., and Madec, G.: Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5 (GloSea5): a high resolution seasonal forecast system, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., doi:10.1002/qj.2396, in press, 2014.
48. Marsh, T. J., Cole, G., and Wilby, R.: Major droughts in England and Wales, 1800-2006, Weather, 62, 87-93, 2007.
49. Marsh, T. J., Sanderson, F. J., and Swain, O.: Derivation of the UK national and regional runoff series, NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/510580/, last access: 11 May 2015.
50. Marshall, A. G. and Scaife, A. A.: Impact of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation on Seasonal Forecasts, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D18110, doi:10.1029/2009JD011737, 2009.
51. Marshall, A. G., Scaife, A. A., and Ineson, S.: Enhanced seasonal prediction of European winter warming following volcanic eruptions, J. Climate, 22, 6168-6180, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI3145.1, 2009.
52. McKee, T. B., Doesken, N. J., and Kliest, J.: The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales, Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, 17-22 January 1993, American Meteorological Society, Anaheim, CA, 1993.
53. Mishra, A. K. and Singh, V. P.: A review of drought concepts, J. Hydrol., 391, 202-216, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.012, 2010.
54. Mitchell, T. D. and Jones, P.: An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated highresolution grids, Int. J. Climatol., 25, 693-712, 2005.
55. Moron, V. and Gouirand, I.: Seasonal modulation of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation relationship with sea level pressure anomalies over the North Atlantic in October-March 1873-1996, Int. J. Climatol., 23, 143-155, 2004.
56. Murphy, J. M., Sexton, D., Jenkins, G., Boorman, P., Booth, B., Brown, K., Clark, R., Collins, M., Harris, G., and Kendon, L.: UK Climate Projections Science Report: Climate Change Projections, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, 2008.
57. Naujokat, B.: An update of the observed quasi-biennial oscillation of the stratospheric winds over the tropics, J. Atmos. Sci., 43, 1873-1877, 1986.
58. Parker, D. E., Folland, C. K., Scaife, A. A., Colman, A., Knight, J., Fereday, D., Baines, P., and Smith, D.: Decadal to interdecadal climate variability and predictability and the background of climate change, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 112, D18115, doi:10.1029/2007JD008411, 2007.
59. Parry, S., Hannaford, J., Prudhomme, C., Lloyd-Hughes, B., and Williamson, J.: Objective drought and high flow catalogues for Europe, WATCH Technical Report 33, 57 pp., http://www.eu-watch.org/publications/technical-reports (last access: 11 May 2015), 2011.
60. Parry, S., Marsh, T., and Kendon, M.: 2012: from drought to floods in England and Wales, Weather, 68, 268-274, doi:10.1002/wea.2152, 2013.
61. Perlwitz, J. and Graf, H.-F.: The statistical connection between tropospheric and stratospheric circulation of the Northern Hemisphere in winter, J. Climate, 8, 2281-2295, 1995.
62. Perry, M. C. and Hollis, D. M.: The generation of monthly gridded datasets for a range of climatic variables over the UK, Int. J. Climatol., 25, 1041-1054, 2005a.
63. Perry, M. C. and Hollis, D. M.: The development of a new set of long term average climate averages for the UK, Int. J. Climatol., 25, 1023-1039, 2005b.
64. Peters, E., Bier, G., van Lanen, H. A. J., and Torfs, P. J. J. F.: Propagation and spatial distribution of drought in a groundwater catchment, J. Hydrol., 321, 257-275, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.08.004, 2006.
65. Prather, M., Flato, G., Friedlingstein, P., Jones, C., Lamarque, J.-F., Liao, H., and Rasch, P.: Annex II: Climate System Scenario Tables, Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 2014.
66. Prudhomme, C., Young, A., Watts, G., Haxton, T., Crooks, S., Williamson, J., Davies, H., Dadson, S., and Allen, S.: The drying up of Britain? A national estimate of changes in seasonal river flows from 11 Regional Climate Model simulations, Hydrol. Process., 26, 1115-1118, doi:10.1002/Hyp.8434, 2012.
67. Rahiz, M. and New, M.: Spatial coherence of meteorological droughts in the UK since 1914, Area, 44, 400-410, doi:10.1111/j.1475-4762.2012.01131.x, 2012.
68. Rayner, N. A., Parker, D. E., Horton, E. B., Folland, C. K., Alexander, L. V., Rowell, D. P., Kent, E. C., and Kaplan, A.: Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 108, 4407, doi:10.1029/2002JD002670, 2003.
69. Reynolds, R., Rayner, N., Smith, T., Stokes, D., and Wang, W.: An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate, J. Climate, 15, 1609-1625, 2002.
70. Robock, A.: Volcanic eruptions and climate, Rev. Geophys., 38, 191-219, 2000.
71. Rodda, J. C. and Marsh, T.: The 1975-76 drought: a contemporary and retrospective review, http://www.ceh.ac.uk/data/nrfa/nhmp/other-reports.html
72. Rodwell, M. J. and Folland, C. K.: Atlantic air-sea interaction and seasonal predictability, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 128, 1413-1443, 2002.
73. Rodwell, M. J., Rowell, D. P., and Folland, C. K.: Oceanic forcing of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and European climate, Nature, 398, 320-323, 1999.
74. Ropelewski, C. F. and Halpert, M. S.: Quantifying Southern Oscillation Precipitation relationships, J. Climate, 9, 1043-1059, 1996.
75. Rowell, D. P. and Jones, R. G.: Causes and uncertainty of future summer drying over Europe, Clim. Dynam., 27, 281-299, doi:10.1007/s00382-006-0125-9, 2006.
76. Scaife, A. A., Folland, C. K., Alexander, L. V., Moberg, A., Brown, S., and Knight, J. R.: European climate extremes and the North Atlantic Oscillation, J. Climate, 21, 72-83, 2008.
77. Scaife, A. A., Copsey, D., Gordon, C., Harris, C., Hinton, T., Keeley, S. J., O'Neill, A., Roberts, M., and Williams, K.: Improved blocking in a climate model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L23703, doi:10.1029/2011GL049573, 2011.
78. Scaife, A. A., Spangehl, T., Fereday, D., Cubasch, U., Langematz, U., Akiyoshi, H., Bekki, S., Braesicke, P., Butchart, N., Chipperfield, M., Gettelman, A., Hardiman, S., Michou, M., Rozanov, E., and Shepherd, T. G.: Climate Change and Stratosphere-Troposphere Interaction, Clim. Dynam., 38, 2089-2097, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1080-7, 2012.
79. Scaife, A. A., Ineson, S., Knight, J. R., Gray, L., Kodera, K., and Smith, D. M.: A Mechanism for Lagged North Atlantic Climate Response to Solar Variability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 434-439, doi:10.1002/grl.50099, 2013.
80. Scaife, A. A., Arribas, A., Blockley, E., Brookshaw, A., Clark, R. T., Dunstone, N., Eade, R., Fereday, D., Folland, C. K., Gordon, M., Hermanson, L., Knight, J. R., Lea, D. J., MacLachlan, C., Maidens, A., Martin, M., Peterson, A. K., Smith, D., Vellinga, M.,Wallace, E.,Waters, J., and Williams, A.: Skilful Long Range Prediction of European and North American Winters, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 2514-2519, doi:10.1002/2014GL059637, 2014a.
81. Scaife, A. A., Athanassiadou, M., Andrews, M. B., Arribas, A., Baldwin, M. P., Dunstone, N., Knight, J. R., Maclachlan, C., Manzini, E., Müller, W. A., Pohlmann, H., Smith, D., Stockdale, T., and Williams, A: Predictability of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and its Northern Winter Teleconnection on Seasonal to Decadal Timescales, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 1752-1758, 2014b.
82. Shukla, S. and Wood, A. W.: Use of a standardized runoff index for characterizing hydrologic drought, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L02405, doi:10.1029/2007gl032487, 2008.
83. Sutton, R. T. and Dong, B.: Atlantic Ocean influence on a shift in European climate in the 1990s, Nat. Geosci., 5, 788-792, doi:10.1038/ngeo1595, 2012.
84. Svensson, C. and Prudhomme, C.: Prediction of British summer river flows using winter predictors, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 82, 1-15, 2005.
85. Titchner, H. A. and Rayner, N. A.: The Met Office Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea-Surface Temperature data set, version 2, part 1: Sea ice concentrations, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 119, 2864-2889, doi:10.1002/2013JD020316, 2014.
86. Todd, B., Macdonald, N., Chiverrell, R. C., Caminade, C., and Hooke, J. M.: Severity, duration and frequency of drought in SE England from 1697 to 2011, Climatic Change, 121, 673-687, doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0970-6, 2013.
87. Toniazzo, T. and Scaife, A. A.: The influence of ENSO on winter North Atlantic climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L24704, doi:10.1029/2006GL027881, 2006.
88. Van Loon, A. F., Van Huijgevoort, M. H. J., and Van Lanen, H. A. J.: Evaluation of drought propagation in an ensemble mean of large-scale hydrological models, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 4057-4078, doi:10.5194/hess-16-4057-2012, 2012.
89. Van Loon, A. F., Ploum, S. W., Parajka, J., Fleig, A. K., Garnier, E., Laaha, G., and Van Lanen, H. A. J.: Hydrological drought types in cold climates: quantitative analysis of causing factors and qualitative survey of impacts, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1993-2016, doi:10.5194/hess-19-1993-2015, 2015.
90. Vernier, J.-P., Thomason, L. W., Pommereau, J.-P., Bourassa, A., Pelon, J., Garnier, A., Hauchecorne, A., Blanot, L., Trepte, C., Degenstein, D., and Vargas, F.: Major influence of tropical volcanic eruptions on the stratospheric aerosol layer during the last decade, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L12807, doi:10.1029/2011GL047563, 2011.
91. Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Lopez-Moreno, J. I., Begueria, S., Lorenzo-Lacruz, J. M., Azorin-Moline, C., and Moran-Tejeda, E.: Accurate computation of a streamflow drought index, J. Hydrol. Eng., 17, 318-332, 2012.
92. Wilby, R. L.: Evidence of ENSO in the synoptic climate of the British Isles, Weather, 48, 234-239, 1993.
93. Wilby, R. L., Prudhomme, R., Parry, S., and Muchan, K. G. L.: Persistence of meteorological drought in the British Isles: A regional analysis of multi-season rainfall and river flow anomalies, J. Extr. Events, submitted, 2015.