Increasing frequency of extreme fire weather in Canada with climate change

Climatic Change

Volumn 130, Issue 4, 2015, Pages 573-586

  Wang, Xianli ^a   Thompson, Dan K ^b   Marshall, Ginny A ^a   Tymstra, Cordy ^c   Carr, Richard ^b   Flannigan, Mike D ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF ALBERTA   (Canada)

^b NORTHERN FORESTRY CENTRE   (Canada)

^c ALBERTA ENVIRONMENT AND PARKS   (Canada)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

FIRE HAZARDS; FIRES; FORESTRY; WEATHER INFORMATION SERVICES;

BURNED AREAS; CANADIAN FORESTS; FIRE MANAGEMENT; FIRE SUPPRESSION; FIRE WEATHER INDEX; FUTURE CLIMATE; TEMPERATE FORESTS; TEMPERATE REGIONS;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

BOREAL FOREST; CLIMATE CHANGE; EXTREME EVENT; FIRE MANAGEMENT; FOREST FIRE;

ALBERTA; CANADA; SASKATCHEWAN;

EID: 84929943572     PISSN: 01650009     EISSN: 15731480     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1375-5     Document Type: Article

References (48)

1. Abatzoglou JT, Kolden CA (2013) Relationships between climate and macroscale area burned in the Western United States. Int J Wildland Fire 22:1003–1020
2. Alexander ME, Cruz MG (2011) Crown fire dynamics in conifer forests. pp 1007–144. In: Synthesis of knowledge of extreme fire behavior: volume I for fire managers. Gen. Tech. Report PNW-GTR-854. USDA For. Serv., Pacific Northwest Experiment Station, Portland
3. Amiro BD, Logan KA, Wotton BM, Flannigan MD, Todd JB, Stocks BJ, Martell DL (2004) Fire weather index system components of large fires in the Canadian boreal forest. Int J Wildland Fire 13:391–400
4. Balshi MS, McGuire AD, Duffy P, Flannigan MD, Walsh J, Melillo J (2009) Assessing the response of area burned to changing climate in western boreal North America using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) approach. Glob Chang Biol 15:578–600
5. Bedia J, Herrera S, San Martín D, Gutiérrez J, Koutsias N (2013) Robust projections of fire weather index in the mediterranean using statistical downscaling. Clim Chang 120:229–247
6. Beverly JL, Flannigan MD, Stocks BJ, Bothwell P (2011) The association between Northern Hemisphere climate patterns and interannual variability in Canadian wildfire activity. Can J For Res 41:2193–2201
7. Blennow K, Olofsson E (2008) The probability of wind damage in forestry under a changed wind climate. Clim Chang 87:347–360
8. Boulanger Y, Gauthier S, Burton PJ, Vaillancourt MA (2012) An alternative fire regime zonation for Canada. Int J Wildland Fire 21:1052–1064
9. Cary GJ, Keane RE, Gardner RH, Lavorel S, Flannigan MD, Davies ID, Li C, Lenihan JM, Rupp TS, Mouillot F (2006) Comparison of the sensitivity of landscape-fire-succession models to variation in terrain, fuel pattern, climate and weather. Landsc Ecol 21:121–137
10. R Core Team (2014) R: a language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna. URL HYPERLINK http://www.R-project.org/
11. Dai A (2012) Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models. Nat Clim Chang 3:52–58
12. de Groot WJ, Pritchard JM, Lynham TJ (2009) Forest floor fuel consumption and carbon emissions in Canadian boreal forest fires. Can J For Res 39(2):367–382
13. de Groot WJ, Flannigan MD, Cantin AS (2013) Climate change impacts on future boreal fire regimes. For Ecol Manag 294:35–44
14. Dennison PE, Brewer SC, Arnold JD, Moritz MA (2014) Large wildfire trends in the western United States, 1984–2011. Geophys Res Lett 41:2928–2933
15. Dowdy AJ, Mills GA, Finkele K, de Groot W (2009) Index sensitivity analysis applied to the Canadian forest fire weather index and the McArthur forest fire danger index. Meteorol Appl 17:298–312
16. Ecological Stratification Working Group (ESWG) (1996) A national ecological framework for Canada. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada and Environment Canada, Ottawa
17. Flannigan MD, Van Wagner CE (1991) Climate change and wildfire in Canada. Can J For Res 21:66–72
18. Flannigan MD, Wotton BM (2001) Forest Fires: Behavior and Ecological Effects., pp 335–357
19. Flannigan MD, Logan KA, Amiro BD, Skinner WR, Stocks BJ (2005) Future area burned in Canada. Clim Chang 72:1–16
20. Flannigan MD, Krawchuk MA, de Groot WJ, Wotton BM, Gowman LM (2009a) Implications of changing climate for global wildland fire. Int J Wildland Fire 18:483–507
21. Flannigan MD, Stocks BJ, Turetsky MR, Wotton BM (2009b) Impact of climate change on fire activity and fire management in the circumboreal forest. Glob Chang Biol 15:549–560
22. Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S, Tebaldi C (2007) Linking climate change modelling to impacts studies: recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological modelling. Int J Clim 27:1547–1578
23. Green PJ, Silverman BW (1994) Nonparametric regression and generalized linear models: a roughness penalty approach. Volume 58 of Monographs on statistics and applied probability. Chapman & Hall, London
24. IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: synthesis report. In: Core Writing Team, Pachauri RK, Reisinger A (eds) Contribution of working groups I, II and III to the Fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. IPCC, Geneva, 104 pp
25. Johnstone JF, Hollingsworth TN, Chapin FS, Mack MC (2010) Changes in fire regime break the legacy lock on successional trajectories in Alaskan boreal forest. Glob Chang Biol 16:1281–1295
26. Lawson BD, Dalrymple GN (1996) Ground-truthing the drought code: Field verification of overwinter recharge of forest floor moisture. Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Pacific Forestry Centre, Victoria. FRDA Report 268
27. Mbogga MS, Wang X, Hamann A (2010) Bioclimate envelope model predictions for natural resource management: dealing with uncertainty. J Appl Ecol 47:731–740
28. Meehl GA, Covey C, Taylor KE, Delworth T, Stouffer RJ, Latif M, McAvaney B, Mitchell JFB (2007) The WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset: A new era in climate change research. Am Meteorol Soc 88:1383–1394
29. Moritz MA, Parisien M-A, Batllori E, Krawchuk MA, Van Dorn J, Ganz DJ, Hayhoe K (2012) Climate change and disruptions to global fire activity. Ecosphere 3:1–22
30. Parisien M-A, Kafka VG, Hirsch KG, Todd BM, Lavoie SG, Maczek PD (2005) Mapping fire susceptibility with the Burn-P3 simulation model. Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Northern Forestry Centre, Edmonton, Alberta, Information Report NOR-X-405
31. Parisien M-A, Parks SA, Krawchuk MA, Flannigan MD, Bowman LM, Moritz MA (2011) Scale-dependent controls on the area burned in the boreal forest of Canada, 1980–2005. Ecol Appl 21:789–805
32. Pinheiro J, Bates D, DebRoy S, Sarkar D, R Core Team (2014) nlme: linear and nonlinear mixed effects models. R package version 3.1-117, http://CRAN.R-project.org/package=nlme
33. Podur J, Wotton BM (2011) Defining fire spread event days for fire-growth modelling. Int J Wildland Fire 20:497–507
34. Rothermel RC, Hartford RA, Chase CH (1994) Fire growth maps for the 1988 Greater Yellowstone Area fires. Gen. Tech. Report INT-304. USDA, Forest Service, Intermountain Research Station
35. Shabbar A, Skinner W, Flannigan MD (2011) Prediction of seasonal forest fire severity in Canada from large-scale climate patterns. J Appl Meteorol Climatol 50:785–799
36. Skinner WR, Flannigan MD, Stocks BJ, Martell DM, Wotton BM, Todd JB, Mason JA, Logan KA, Bosch EM (2002) A 500 hPa synoptic wildland fire climatology for large Canadian forest fires, 1959–1996. Theor Appl Climatol 71:157–169
37. Stocks BJ, Lawson BD, Alexander ME, Van Wagner CE, McAlpine RS, Lynham TJ, Dube DE (1989) Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System: an overview. For Chron 65:450–457
38. Stocks BJ, Mason JA, Todd JB, Bosch EM, Wotton BM, Amiro BD, Flannigan MD, Hirsch KG, Logan KA, Martell DL, Skinner WR (2002) Large forest fires in Canada, 1959–1997. J Geophys Res Atmos 107(D1):FFR-5
39. Stralberg D (2012) General circulation model recommendations for Alberta. ABMI biodiversity and climate change adaptation project/University of Alberta. http://www.biodiversityandclimate.abmi.ca/docs/Stralberg_2012_General_circulation_model_recommendations_for_Alberta_ABMI.pdf. Accessed 15 July 2014
40. Stralberg D, Matsuoka SM, Hamann A, Bayne EM, Sólymos P, Schmiegelow FKA, Wang X, Cumming SG, Song SJ (2015) Projecting boreal bird responses to climate change: the signal exceeds the noise. Appl Ecol 25:52–69
41. Taylor SW, Alexander ME (2006) Science, technology, and human factors in fire danger rating: the Canadian experience. Int J Wildland Fire 15:121–135
42. Van Wagner CE (1977) Conditions for the start and spread of crown fire. Can J For Res 7:23–34
43. Van Wagner CE (1987) Development and structure of the Canadian forest fire weather index system. Forestry technical report 35. Canadian Forest Service, Ottawa
44. Wang X, Cantin A, Parisien M-A, Wotton BM, Anderson K, Flannigan MD (2012) fwi.fbp: Fire weather index system and fire behaviour prediction system calculations https://r-forge.r-project.org/projects/fwi-fbp/
45. Wang X, Parisien M-A, Flannigan MD, Parks SA, Anderson KR, Little JM, Taylor SW (2014) The potential and realized spread of wildfires across Canada. Glob Chang Biol 20:2518–2530
46. Westerling AL, Hidalgo HG, Cayan DR, Swetnam TW (2006) Warming and earlier spring increase western US forest wildfire activity. Science 313:940–943
47. Wotton BM, Flannigan MD (1993) Length of the fire season in a changing climate. For Chron 69:187–192
48. Zuur AF, Ieno EN, Walker NJ, Saveliev AA, Smith GM (2009) Mixed effects models and extensions in ecology with R. Springer, New York, pp 459–468