Climate change and non-stationary flood risk for the upper Truckee River basin

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences

Volumn 19, Issue 1, 2015, Pages 159-175

  Condon, L E ^a,b   Gangopadhyay, S ^a   Pruitt, T ^a  

^a U S BUREAU OF RECLAMATION   (United States)

^b Department of Geology and Geological Engineering   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

BRIDGES; CLIMATE CHANGE; DESIGN; RAIN; RISK ASSESSMENT; RISKS; TRUCKS; WATERSHEDS;

CLIMATE PROJECTION; COUPLED MODEL INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT; END-TO-END ANALYSIS; EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY; GENERALIZED EXTREME VALUE; HISTORICAL PERIODS; TIME-VARYING RISKS; VARIABLE INFILTRATION CAPACITY MODELS;

FLOODS;

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE PREDICTION; DOWNSCALING; FLOOD FREQUENCY; FLOW MODELING; PARAMETERIZATION; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); PROBABILITY; RIVER BASIN; SEASONAL VARIATION;

TRUCKEE RIVER; UNITED STATES;

EID: 84929297964     PISSN: 10275606     EISSN: 16077938     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5194/hess-19-159-2015     Document Type: Article

References (71)

1. Akaike, H.: New look at statistical-model identification, IEEE Trans. Autom. Control, 19, 716-723, 1974.
2. Allan, R. P.:Climate change: Human influence on rainfall, Nature, 470, 344-345, 2011.
3. Cayan, D. R., Redmond, K. T., and Riddle, L. G.: ENSO and Hydrologic Extremes in the Western United States, J. Climate, 12, 2881-2893, 1999.
4. Cayan, D. R., Kammerdiener, S. A., Dettinger, M. D., Caprio, J. M., and Peterson, D. H.: Changes in the Onset of Spring in the Western U.S., B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 82, 399-415, 2001.
5. Christensen, N. S. and Lettenmaier, D. P.: A multimodel ensemble approach to assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado River Basin, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1417-1434, doi:10.5194/hess-11-1417-2007, 2007.
6. Christensen, N. S., Wood, A. W., Lettenmaier, D. P., and Palmer, R. N.: Effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado river basin, Climate Change, 62, 337-363, 2004.
7. Das, T., Pierce, D. W., Cayan, D. R., Vano, J. A., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: The importance of warm season warming to western U.S. streamflow changes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L23403, doi:10.1029/2011GL049660, 2011.
8. Dettinger, M. D. and Cayan, D. R.: Large-scale Atmospheric Forcing of Recent Trends toward Early Snowmelt Runoff in California, J. Climate, 8, 606-623, 1995.
9. Douglas, E. M., Vogel, R. M., and Kroll, C. N.: Trends in floods and low flows in the United States: impact of spatial correlation, J. Hydrol., 240, 90-105, 2000.
10. Easterling, D. R., Meehl, G. A., Parmesan, C., Changnon, S. A., Karl, T. R., and Mearns, L. O.: Climate Extremes: Observations, Modeling and Impacts, Science, 289, 2068-2074, 2000.
11. Elsner, M. M., Gangopadhyay, S. G., Pruitt, T., Brekke, L. D., Mizukami, N., and Clark, M. P.: How does the choice of distributed meteorological data affect hydrologic model calibration and streamflow simulations?, J. Hydrometeorol., 15, 1384-1403, 2014.
12. Franks, S. W.: Identification of a change in climate state using regional flood data, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 6, 11-16, doi:10.5194/hess-6-11-2002, 2002.
13. Gangopadhyay, S., Pruitt, T., Brekke, L. D., and Raff, D. A.: Hydrologic Projections for theWestern United States, Eos, 92, 441-452, 2011.
14. Gilleland, E. and Katz, R. W.: New software to analyze how extremes change over time, Eos, 92, 13-14, 2011.
15. Gilroy, K. L. and McCuen, R. H.: A nonstationary flood frequency analysis method to adjust for future climate change and urbanization, J. Hydrol., 414-415, 40-48, 2012.
16. Griffis, V. and Stedinger, J. R.: Incorporating climate change and variability into Bulletin 17B LP3 model, paper presented at ASCE World Env.&Water Resour. Congress, Tampa, Florida, USA, 2007.
17. Gutowski, W. J., Hegerl, G. C., Holland, G. J., Knutson, T. R., Mearns, L. O., Stouffer, R. J., Webster, P. J., Wehner, M. F., and Zwiers, F. W.: Causes of Observed Changes in Extremes and Projections of Future Changes in Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate, Regions of Focus: North America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S. Pacific Islands Rep., Washington, D.C., 2008.
18. Hall, J., Arheimer, B., Borga, M., Brázdil, R., Claps, P., Kiss, A., Kjeldsen, T. R., Kriauciuniene, J., Kundzewicz, Z. W., Lang, M., Llasat, M. C., Macdonald, N., McIntyre, N., Mediero, L., Merz, B., Merz, R., Molnar, P., Montanari, A., Neuhold, C., Parajka, J., Perdigão, R. A. P., Plavcová, L., Rogger, M., Salinas, J. L., Sauquet, E., Schär, C., Szolgay, J., Viglione, A., and Blöschl, G.: Understanding flood regime changes in Europe: a state-of-the-art assessment, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2735-2772, doi:10.5194/hess-18-2735-2014, 2014.
19. Harding, B. L., Wood, A. W., and Prairie, J. R.: The implications of climate change scenario selection for future streamflow projection in the Upper Colorado River Basin, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 3989-4007, doi:10.5194/hess-16-3989-2012 2012.
20. Hirsch, R. M. (2011), A perspective on nonstationarity and water management, Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 47(), 436-446.
21. IACWD-Interagency Advisory Committee onWater Data: Guidelines for determining flood flow frequency: Bulletin 17B of the Hydrology Subcommittee, Office of Water Data Coordination, US Geological Survey, Reston, VA, p. 183, 1982.
22. Jain, S. and Lall, U.: Floods in a changing climate: Does the past represent the future?, Water Resour. Res., 37, 3193-3205, 2001.
23. Katz, R. W.: Statistics of extremes in climate change, Climate Change, 100, 71-76, 2010.
24. Katz, R. W., Parlange, M. B., and Naveau, P.: Statistics of extremes in hydrology, Adv. Water Resour., 25, 1287-1304, 2002.
25. Kunkel, K. E.: North American Trends in Extreme Precipitation, Nat. Hazards, 29, 291-305, 2003.
26. Liang, X., Lettenmaier, D. P., Wood, E. F., and Burges, S. J.: A simple hydrologically based model of land surface water and energy fluxes for general circulation models, J. Geophys. Res., 99, 14415-14428, 1994.
27. Liang, X.,Wood, E. F., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Surface soil moisture parameterization of the VIC-2L model: Evaluation and modification, Global Planet. Change, 13, 195-206, 1996.
28. Madsen, T. and Figdor, E.: When it Rains it Pours-Global Warming and the Rising Frequency of Extreme Precipitaiton in the U.S., Environmental America Research and Policy Center, http://www.environmentamerica.org/reports/(last access: January 2015), 2007.
29. Maidment, D. R.: Handbook of Hydrology, McGraw-Hill, 1993.
30. Mailhot, A. and Duchesne, S.: Design criteria of urban drainage infrastructures under climate change, J.Water Resour. Pl. Manage., 136, 201-208, 2010.
31. Maurer, E. P., Brekke, L. D., Pruitt, T., and Duffy, P. B.: Fineresolution climate projections enhance regional climate change impact studies, Eos Tran. AGU, 88, 504, 2007.
32. Maurer, E. P., Wood, A. W., Adam, J. C., Lettenmaier, D. P., and Nijssen, B.: A Long-Term Hydrologically-Based Dataset of Land Surface Fluxes and States for the Conterminous United States, J. Climate, 15, 3237-3252, 2002.
33. Meehl, G. A., Karl, T., Easterling, D. R., Changnon, S., Pielke Jr., R., Changnon, D., Evans, J., Groisman, P. Y., Knutson, T. R., Kunkel, K. E., Mearns, L. O., Parmesan, C., Pulwarty, R., Root, T., Sylves, R. T., Whetton, P., and Zwiers, F.: An Introduction to Trends in Extreme Weather and Climate Events: Observa tions, Socioeconomic Impact, Terrestrial Ecological Impacts, and Model Projections, B. Am. Meterorol. Soc., 81, 413-416, 2000.
34. Merz, B., Vorogushyn, S., Uhlemann, S., Delgado, J., and Hundecha, Y.: HESS Opinions "More efforts and scientific rigour are needed to attribute trends in flood time series", Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1379-1387, doi:10.5194/hess-16-1379-2012, 2012.
35. Milly, P. C. D., Betancourt, J., Falkenmark, M., Hirsch, R. M., Kundzewicz, Z. W., Lettenmaier, D. P., and Stouffer, R. J.: Stationarity Is Dead: Whither Water Management, Science, 319, 573-574, 2008.
36. Min, S.-K., Zhang, X., Zwiers, F. W., and Hegerl, G. C.: Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes, Nature, 470, 378-381, 2011.
37. Mote, P.W., Hamlet, A. F., Clark, M. P., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Declining Mountain Snowpack In Western North America, B. Am. Meterorol. Soc., 86, 39-49, doi:10.1175/BAMS-86-1-39, 2005.
38. Mullet, C. J., O'Gorman, P. A., and Back, L. E.: Intensification of precipitation extremes with warming in a cloud resolving model, J. Climate, 24, 2784-2800, 2011.
39. Nijssen, B., Lettenmaier, D. P., Liang, X.,Wetzel, S.W., andWood, E. F.: Streamflow simulation for continental-scale river basins, Water Resour. Res., 33, 711-724, 1997.
40. Obeysekera, J. and Salas, J. D.: Quantifying the uncertainty of design floods under nonstationary conditions, J. Hydrol. Eng;, 19, 1438-1446, 2014.
41. O'Gorman, P. A. and Schneider, T.: The physical basis for increases in precipitaiton extremes in simulations of 21st century climate change, P. Natl. Acad. Sci., 106, 14773-14777, 2009.
42. O'Hara, B. F., Barbato, G. E., James, J. W., Angeloff, H. A., and Cylke, T.: Weather and climate of the Redno-Carson City-Lake Tahoe Region, Nevada Special Publication 34, Bureau of Mines and Geology, Reno, Nevada, USA, 2007.
43. Pall, P., Aina, T., Stone, D. A., Stott, P. A., Nozawa, T., Hilberts, A. G. J., Lohmann, D., and Allen, M. R.: Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in autumn 2000, Nature, 470, 382-385, 2011.
44. Payne, J. T., Wood, A. W., Hamlet, A. F., Palmer, R. N., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Mitigating the effects of climate change on the water resources of the Columbia River basin, Climate Change, 62, 233-256, 2004.
45. Pierce, D.W., Barnett, T. P., Santer, B. D., and Gleckler, P. J.: Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies, P. Natl. Acad. Sci., 106, 8441-8446, 2009.
46. Pierce, D. W., Das, T., Cayan, D. R., Maurer, E. P., Miller, N. L., Bao, Y., Kanamitsu, M., Yoshimura, K., Snyder, M. A., Sloan, L. C., Franco, G., and Tyree, M.: Probabilistic estimates of future changes in California temperature and precipitation using statistical and dynamical downscaling, Clim. Dynam., 40, 839-856, 2012.
47. Raff, D. A., Pruitt, T., and Brekke, L. D.: A framework for assessing flood frequency based on climate projection information, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2119-2136, doi:10.5194/hess-13-2119-2009, 2009.
48. Ralph, F. M. and Dettinger, M. D.: Historical and National Perspectives on Extreme West Coast Precipitation Associated with Atmospheric Rivers during December 2010, B. Am. Meterorol. Soc., 93, 783-790, 2012.
49. R Core Team: R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria, http://www.R-project.org/(last access: 26 November 2014), 2012.
50. Reclamation: Truckee River Basin Study, Fact Sheet, available at: http://www.usbr.gov/WaterSMART/bsp/docs/fy2010/Truckee-BasinFactsheetFinal.pdf (last access: 22 September 2014), 2010.
51. Reclamation: West-wide climate risk assessments: Biascorrected and spatially downscaled surface water projections, Tech. Memo. 86-68210-2011-01, US Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, Technical Service Center, Denver, Colorado, 138 pp., 2011.
52. Reclamation: Downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 Climate Projections: Release of Downscaled CMIP5 Climate Projections, Comparison with Preceding Information, and Summary of User Needs, Downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 Climate and Hydrology Projections, US Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, Technical Service Center, Denver, Colorado, 47 pp., 2013.
53. Reclamation: Downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 Climate and Hydrology Projections: Release of Hydrology Projections, Comparison with preceding Information, and Summary of User Needs, prepared by the US Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, Technical Service Center, Denver, Colorado, 110 pp., 2014.
54. Regonda, S. K., Rajagopalan, B., Clark, M., and Pitlick, J.: Seasonal Cycle Shifts in Hydroclimatology Over the Western U.S., J. Climate, 18, 372-384, 2005.
55. Rootzén, H. and Katz, R. W.: Design Life Level: Quantifying risk in a changing climate,Water Resour. Res., 49, 5964-5972, 2013.
56. Salas, J. and Obeysekera, J.: Revisiting the Concepts of Return Period and Risk for Nonstationary Hydrologic Extreme Events, J. Hyrol. Eng., 19, 554-568, 2014.
57. Slack, J. R., Lumb, A. M., and Landwehr, J. M.: Hydroclimatic data network (HCDN): A U.S. Geological Survey streamflow data set for the United Sates for the study of climate variation 1874-1988, USGS Water Resour. Invest. Rep. 93-4076, USGS, Reston, Virginia, USA, 1993.
58. Small, D., Islam, S., and Vogel, R. M.: Trends in precipitation and streamflow in the eastern U.S.: Paradox or perception?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L03403, doi:10.1029/2005GL024995, 2006.
59. Stedinger, J. R. and Griffis, V. W.: Getting from here to where? Flood frequency analysis and climate, J. Am.Water Resour. Ass., 47, 506-513, 2011.
60. Stokes, J.: Draft Farad Diversion Dam Replacement Project Environmental Impact Report Rep., State Water Resources Control Board, Sacramento, CA, 2002.
61. Sun, Y., Solomon, S., Dai, A., and Portmann, R. W.: How Often Will it Rain?, J. Climate, 20, 4801-4818, 2007.
62. Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: A Summary of the CMIP5 Experiment Design, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 485-498, 2012.
63. Towler, E., Rajagopalan, B., Gilleland, E., Summers, R. S., Yates, D., and Katz, R. W.: Modeling hydrologic and water quality extremes in a changing climate: A statistical approach based on extreme value theory, Water Resour. Res., 46, W11504, doi:10.1029/2009WR008876, 2010.
64. USACE: Final environmental impact statement for the Truckee Meadows Flood Control Project: General Reevaluation Report Volume 1, US Army Corps of Engineers, Sacramento, 2013a.
65. USACE: Truckee Meadows Flood Control Project, Nevada: Draft General Reevaluation Report Rep., US Army Corps of Engineers, Sacramento, 2013b.
66. Van Rheenen, N. T., Wood, A. W., Palmer, R. N., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Potential implications of PCM climate change scenarios for Sacramento-San Joaquin River Bain hydrology and water resources, Climate Change, 62, 257-281, 2004.
67. Villarini, G., Serinaldi, F., Smith, J. A., and Krajewski, W. F.: On the stationarity of annual flood peaks in the continental United States during the 20th century, Water Resour. Res., 45, W08417, doi:10.1029/2008WR007645, 2009.
68. Vogel, R. M., Yaindl, C., and Walter, M.: Nonstationarity: Flood magnification and recurrence reduction factors in the United States, J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 47, 464-474, 2011.
69. Walter, M. and Vogel, R. M.: Increasing trends in peak flows in the northeastern United States and their impacts on design, paper presented at 2nd Joint Federal Interagency Conference, Las Vegas, NV, 2010.
70. Wood, A. W., Leung, L. R., Sridhar, V., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Hydrologic implications of dynamical and statistical approaches to downscaling climate model outputs, Climatic Change, 62, 189-216, 2004.
71. Wu, H., Adler, R. F., Tian, Y., Juffman, G. J., Li, H., and Wang, J. J.: Real-time global flood estimation using satellite-based precipitation and a coupled land surface routing model, Water Resour. Res., 50, 2693-2717, 2014.