Forecast-based financing: An approach for catalyzing humanitarian action based on extreme weather and climate forecasts

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences

Volumn 15, Issue 4, 2015, Pages 895-904

  Coughlan De Perez, E ^a,b,c   Van Den Hurk, B ^b,d   Van Aalst, M K ^a,c   Jongman, B ^a,b   Klose, T ^e   Suarez, P ^a  

^a Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre   (Netherlands)

^b INSTITUTE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES   (Netherlands)

^c Earth Institute   (United States)

^d ROYAL NETHERLANDS METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE KNMI   (Netherlands)

^e Institute Springe   (Germany)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ACTION PLAN; CLIMATE PREDICTION; DISASTER MANAGEMENT; EXTREME EVENT; PROBABILITY; RISK ASSESSMENT; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EID: 84928731281     PISSN: 15618633     EISSN: 16849981     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-15-895-2015     Document Type: Article

References (43)

1. Ali, D. and Gelsdorf, K.: Risk-averse to risk-willing: Learning from the 2011 Somalia cash response, Glob. Food Secur., 1, 57-63. doi:10.1016/j.gfs.2012.07.008, 2012.
2. Bailey, R.: Managing Famine Risk Linking Early Warning to Early Action, Chatham House, 2013.
3. Barnett, B. J. and Mahul, O.: Weather Index Insurance for Agriculture and Rural Areas in Lower-Income Countries, Am. J. Agr. Econ., 89, 1241-1247, doi:10.1111/j.1467-8276.2007.01091.x, 2007.
4. Braman, L. M., Aalst, M. K. Van, and Mason, S. J.: Climate forecasts in disaster management?: Red Cross flood operations in West Africa, 2008, 37, 144-164, doi:10.1111/j.1467- 7717.2012.01297.x, 2013.
5. Buizza, R., Hollingsworth, A., Lalaurette, F., and Ghelli, A.: Probabilistic Predictions of Precipitation Using the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System, Weather Forecast., 14, 168-189, 1999.
6. Demeritt, D., Cloke, H., Pappenberger, F., Thielen, J., Bartholmes, J., and Ramos, M.: Ensemble predictions and perceptions of risk, uncertainty, and error in flood forecasting, Environ. Hazards, 7, 115-127, doi:10.1016/j.envhaz.2007.05.001, 2007.
7. Dilley, M.: Reducing vulnerability to climate variability in Southern Africa: The growing role of climate information, Climatic Change, 45, 63-73, 2000.
8. Dinku, T. and Sharoff, J.: ENACTS Ethiopia: Partnerships for Improving Climate Data Availability, Accessibility, and Utility, Climate Services Partnership, available at: http://www.climateservices.org/sites/default/files/ENACTS-Case-Study.pdf, 2013.
9. Doswell, C. A., Davies-Jones, R., and Keller, D. L.: On Summary Measures of Skill in Rare Event Forecasting Based on Contingency Tables, Weather Forecast., 5, 576-585, 1990.
10. Foresight: Reducing Risks of Future Disasters: Priorities for Decision Makers, The Government Office for Science, London, 2012.
11. Ghosh, S., Vidyasagaran, V., and Sandeep, S.: Smart cyclone alerts over the Indian subcontinent, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 15, 157-158, doi:10.1002/asl2.486, 2013.
12. GlobalAgRisk Inc.: Incorporating weather index insurance with territorial approaches to climate change (TACC) in Northern Peru: Household project report, Lexington, Kentucky, 47 pp., 2010.
13. Hellmuth, M., Mason, S., Vaughan, C., van Aalst, M., and Choularton, R. (Eds.): A better climate for disaster risk management, Climate and Society No. 3, 2011.
14. Hewitt, C., Mason, S., and Walland, D.: The Global Framework for Climate Services, Nature Climate Change, 2, 831-832, doi:10.1038/nclimate1745, 2012.
15. Hillbruner, C. and Moloney, G.: When early warning is not enough -Lessons learned from the 2011 Somalia Famine, Glob. Food Secur., 1, 20-28, doi:10.1016/j.gfs.2012.08.001, 2012.
16. Hoskins, B.: The potential for skill across the range of the seamless weather-climate prediction problem: a stimulus for our science, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 139, 573-584, doi:10.1002/qj.1991, 2013.
17. Hurford, A. P., Priest, S. J., Parker, D. J., and Lumbroso, D. M.: The effectiveness of extreme rainfall alerts in predicting surface water flooding in England and Wales, Int. J. Climatol., 32, 1768-1774, doi:10.1002/joc.2391, 2012.
18. Johnston, P. A., Archer, E. R. M., Vogel, C. H., Bezuidenhout, C. N., Tennant, W. J., and Kuschke, R.: Review of seasonal forecastingin South Africa?: producer to end-user, Climate Res., 28, 67-82, 2004.
19. Kellett, J. and Caravani, A.: Financing Disaster Risk Reduction: a 20 year story of international aid, 2013.
20. Kolen, B., Slomp, R., and Jonkman, S. N.: The impacts of storm Xynthia February 27-28, 2010 in France: lessons for flood risk management, J. Flood Risk Manage., 6, 261-278, doi:10.1111/jfr3.12011, 2013.
21. Lautze, S., Bell, W., Alinovi, L., and Russo, L.: Early warning, late response (again): The 2011 famine in Somalia, Glob. Food Secur., 1, 43-49, doi:10.1016/j.gfs.2012.07.006, 2012.
22. Leblois, A. and Quirion, Z.: Agricultural insurances based on meteorological indices: realizations, methods and research challenges, Meteorological Applications, Royal Meteorological Society, 20, 1-9, 2013.
23. Maenzanise, S. and Braman, L.: Innovative Approaches to Engaging Communities in Participatory Dialogues that Enhance Community Disaster Preparedness, Climate Services Partnership, 2012.
24. Manyena, S. B.: Disaster and Development Paradigms: Too Close for Comfort?, Dev. Policy Rev., 30, 327-345, doi:10.1111/j.1467-7679.2012.00579.x, 2012.
25. Mason, S. J. and Graham, N. E.: Areas beneath the relative operating characteristics (ROC) and relative operating levels (ROL) curves?: Statistical significance and interpretation, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 128, 2145-2166, 2002.
26. Maxwell, D. and Fitzpatrick, M.: The 2011 Somalia famine: Context, causes, and complications, Glob. Food Secur., 1, 5-12, doi:10.1016/j.gfs.2012.07.002, 2012.
27. Mechler, R.: Cost-benefit Analysis of Natural Disaster Risk Management in Developing Countries, August, 2005.
28. Mendler de Suarez, J., Suarez, P., Bachofen, C., Fortugno, N., Goncalves, P., Grist, N., Macklin, C., Pfeifer, K., Schweizer, S., Van Aalst, M., and Virji, H.: Games for a New Climate?: Games for a New Climate?: Experiencing the Complexity of Future Risks, Boston University Pardee Center, 2012.
29. Osgood, D. E., Suarez, P., Hansen, B., Carriquiry, M., and Mishra, A.: Integrating Seasonal Forecasts and Insurance for Adaptation among Subsistence Farmers: The Case of Malawi, Policy Research Working Paper 4651, World Bank: Washington DC, 2008.
30. Parker, D. J., Priest, S. J., and McCarthy, S. S.: Surface water flood warnings requirements and potential in England and Wales, Appl. Geogr., 31, 891-900, doi:10.1016/j.apgeog.2011.01.002, 2011.
31. Powell, T., Hanfling, D., and Gostin, L. O.: Emergency Preparedness and Public Health: The Lessons of Hurricane Sandy, Georgetown Public Law and Legal Theory Research Paper No. 12-189, 2012.
32. Richardson, D. S.: Chapter 9: Economic value and skill, in: Forecast Verification: A practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science, edited by: Jolliffe, I. T. and Stephenson, D. B., John Wiley and Sons Ltd., 2nd ed., 167-184, 2012.
33. Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre: Health Risk Management in a Changing Climate, available at: http://www.climatecentre.org/downloads/File/Case%20studies/CC-HMR%20brochure-A4-6%20web.pdf, 2013.
34. Rodó, X., Pascual, M., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Gershunov, A., Stone, D. A., Giorgi, F., Hudson, P. J., Kinter, J., Rodríguez-Arias, M.-À., Stenseth, N. Ch., Alonso, D., García-Serrano, J., and Dobson, A. P.: Climate change and infectious diseases: Can we meet the needs for better prediction?, Climatic Change, 118, 625-640, doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0744-1, 2013.
35. Rogers, D. P. and Tsirkunov, V. V.:Weather and Climate Resilience: Effective Preparedness through National Meteorological and Hyrological Services, Washington, DC, doi:10.1596/978-1-4648- 0026-9, 2013.
36. Ross, K. W., Brown, M., Verdin, J. P., and Underwood, L. W.: Review of FEWS NET biophysical monitoring requirements, Environ. Res. Lett., 4, 024009, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/4/2/024009, 2009.
37. Suarez, P. and Linnerooth-Bayer, J.: Insurance-related instruments for disaster risk reduction. Contribution to the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR), Geneva, Switzerland, 2011.
38. Suarez, P. and Patt, A.: Cognition, Caution, and Credibility: The Risks of Climate Forecast Application, Risk, Decision, and Policy, 9, 75-89, 2004.
39. Suarez, P. and Tall, A.: Towards forecast-based humanitarian decisions?: Climate science to get from early warning to early action, Humanitarian Futures Programme, 2010.
40. Swinkels, W. A, Engelsman, M., Kasteleijn-Nolst Trenité, D. G., Baal, M. G., de Haan, G. J., and Oosting, J.: Influence of an evacuation in February 1995 in The Netherlands on the seizure frequency in patients with epilepsy: a controlled study, Epilepsia, 39, 1203-1207, 1998.
41. UNISDR, UNDP, LA RED, OSSO, Robot Search, Apache Software Foundation: Desinventar Disaster Information System, available at: http://www.desinventar.net/ (last access: December 2014), 2011.
42. Ward, P. J., Eisner, S., Flörke, M., Dettinger, M. D., and Kummu, M.: Annual flood sensitivities to El Niño-Southern Oscillation at the global scale, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 47-66, doi:10.5194/hess-18-47-2014, 2014.
43. Webster, P. J., Toma, V. E., and Kim, H.-M.: Were the 2010 Pakistan floods predictable?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L04806, doi:10.1029/2010GL046346, 2011.