Climate change impact and adaptation research requires integrated assessment and farming systems analysis: A case study in the Netherlands

Environmental Research Letters

Volumn 10, Issue 4, 2015, Pages

  Reidsma, Pytrik ^a   Wolf, Joost ^a   Kanellopoulos, Argyris ^a   Schaap, Ben F ^a   Mandryk, Maryia ^a   Verhagen, Jan ^a   Van Ittersum, Martin K ^a  

^a WAGENINGEN UNIVERSITY   (Netherlands)

Author keywords

bio economic farm modelling; climate change adaptation; crop simulation; farm diversity; scenario

Indexed keywords

AGRICULTURE; CLIMATE MODELS; CROPS; RISK ASSESSMENT; SYSTEMS ANALYSIS;

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION; CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENTS; CROP SIMULATIONS; FARM MODELLING; IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION; INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT; PARTICIPATORY METHODS; SCENARIO;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; CROP YIELD; FARMING SYSTEM; INTEGRATED APPROACH; PARTICIPATORY APPROACH; SPATIOTEMPORAL ANALYSIS;

FLEVOLAND; NETHERLANDS;

EID: 84928725474     PISSN: 17489318     EISSN: 17489326     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/4/045004     Document Type: Article

References (53)

1. Angulo C, Rötter R, Lock R, Enders A, Fronzek S and Ewert F 2013 Implication of crop model calibration strategies for assessing regional impacts of climate change in Europe Agric. Forest Meteorol. 170 32-46
2. Antle J M and Capalbo S M 2010 Adaptation of agricultural and food systems to climate change: an economic and policy perspective Appl. Econ. Perspect. Policy 32 386-416
3. Bodlaender K B A, Lugt C and Marinus J 1964 The induction of second-growth in potato tubers Eur. Potato J. 7 57-71
4. Boogaard H, Wolf J, Supit I, Niemeyer S and van Ittersum M 2013 A regional implementation of WOFOST for calculating yield gaps of autumn-sown wheat across the European Union Field Crops Res. 143 130-42
5. Brisson N, Gate P, Gouache D, Charmet G, Oury F X and Huard F 2010 Why are wheat yields stagnating in Europe? a comprehensive data analysis for France Field Crops Res. 119 201-12
6. Britz W, Heckelei T and Kempen M 2007 Description of the CAPRI Modeling System. Final Report of the CAPRI-Dynaspat Project (Bonn, Germany: Institute for Food and Resource Economics, University of Bonn)
7. Cassman K G 1999 Ecological intensification of cereal production systems: yield potential, soil quality, and precision agriculture Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 96 5952-9
8. Challinor A J, Watson J, Lobell D B, Howden S M, Smith D R and Chhetri N 2014 A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation Nat. Clim. Change 4 287-91
9. Chiotti Q P and Johnston T 1995 Extending the boundaries of climate change research: a discussion on agriculture J. Rural Stud. 11 335-50
10. Cooper W W, Seiford L M and Tone K 2007 Data Envelopment Analysis: A Comprehensive Text with Models, Applications, References and DEA-Solver Software (Boston, MA: Springer)
11. Ewert F, Angulo C, Rumbaur C, Lock R, Enders A, Adenauer M, Heckelei T, van Ittersum M, Wolf J and Roetter R 2011 Scenario development and assessment of the impacts of climate and market changes on crops in Europe AgriAdapt Project Reports (Bonn, Germany: Institute of Crop Science Resource Conservation, University of Bonn)
12. Ewert F, Rounsevell M D A, Reginster I, Metzger M J and Leemans R 2005 Future scenarios of European agricultural land use: I. Estimating changes in crop productivity Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 107 101-16
13. Fischer R A, Byerlee D and Edmeades G O 2014 Crop Yields and Global Food Security: will Yield Increase Continue to Feed the World? (Canberra: Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research)
14. Fischer R A and Edmaedes G O 2010 Breeding and cereal yield progress Crop Sci. 50 S85-98
15. Gobin A 2012 Impact of heat and drought stress on arable crop production in Belgium Nat. Hazard. Earth Syst. 12 1911-22
16. Hermans C M L, Geijzendorffer I R, Ewert F, Metzger M J, Vereijken P H, Woltjer G B and Verhagen A 2010 Exploring the future of European crop production in a liberalised market, with specific consideration of climate change and the regional competitiveness Ecol. Modelling 221 2177-87
17. Himanen S J, Hakala K and Kahiluoto H 2013 Crop responses to climate and socioeconomic change in northern regions Reg. Environ. Change 13 17-32
18. Holzkämper A, Klein T, Seppelt R and Fuhrer J 2015 Assessing the propagation of uncertainties in multi-objective optimization for agro-ecosystem adaptation to climate change Environ. Modelling Softw. 66 27-35
19. Iglesias A, Quiroga S, Moneo M and Garrote L 2012 From climate change impacts to the development of adaptation strategies: challenges for agriculture in Europe Clim. Change 112 143-68
20. Jamieson P D, Porter J R, Semenov M A, Brooks R J, Ewert F and Ritchie J T 1999 Comments on 'testing winter wheat simulation models predictions against observed UK grain yields' by Landau et al Agric. Forest Meteorol. 96 157-61
21. Janssen S and van Ittersum M K 2007 Assessing farm innovations and responses to policies: a review of bio-economic farm models Agric. Syst. 94 622-36
22. Kanellopoulos A, Reidsma P, Wolf J and van Ittersum M K 2014 Assessing climate change and associated socio-economic scenarios for arable farming in the netherlands: an application of benchmarking and bio-economic farm modelling Eur. J. Agron. 52 69-80
23. Kassie B T, Van Ittersum M K, Hengsdijk H, Asseng S, Wolf J and Rötter R P 2014 Climate-induced yield variability and yield gaps of maize (Zea mays L.) in the central rift valley of Ethiopia Field Crops Res. 160 41-53
24. Lobell D B and Burke M B 2010 On the use of statistical models to predict crop yield responses to climate change Agric. Forest Meteorol. 150 1443-52
25. Long S P, Zhu X-G, Naidu S L and Ort D R 2006 Can improvement in photosynthesis increase crop yields? Plant Cell Environ. 29 315-30
26. Louhichi K, Kanellopoulos A, Janssen S, Flichman G, Blanco M, Hengsdijk H, Heckelei T, Berentsen P, Oude Lansink A and Van Ittersum M K 2010 FSSIM, a bio-economic farm model for simulating the response of EU farming systems to agricultural and environmental policies Agric. Syst. 103 585-97
27. Mandryk M, Reidsma P, Kanellopoulos A, Groot J C J and van Ittersum M K 2014 The role of farmers' objectives in current farm practices and adaptation preferences: a case study in Flevoland, the Netherlands Reg. Environ. Change 14 1463-78
28. Mandryk M, Reidsma P and van Ittersum M K 2012 Scenarios of long-term farm structural change for application in climate change impact assessment Landscape Ecol. 27 509-27
29. Mendelsohn R 2007 Measuring climate impacts with cross-sectional analysis Clim. Change 81 1-7
30. Nelson G C et al 2014 Climate change effects on agriculture: economic responses to biophysical shocks Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 111 3274-9
31. Porter J R, Xie L, Challinor A, Cochrane K, Howden M, Iqbal M M, Lobell D B and Travasso M I 2014 Food security and food production systems Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) ed C B Field et al (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press) pp 485-533
32. Reidsma P, Ewert F, Boogaard H and van Diepen K 2009 Regional crop modelling in Europe: the impact of climatic conditions and farm characteristics on maize yields Agric. Syst. 100 51-60
33. Reidsma P, Ewert F, Oude Lansink A and Leemans R 2010 Adaptation to climate change and climate variability in European agriculture: the importance of farm level responses Eur. J. Agron. 32 91-102
34. Reilly J M and Fuglie K O 1998 Future yield growth in field crops: what evidence exists? Soil Till. Res. 47 275-90
35. Reynolds M P, Pellegrinischi A and Skovmand B 2005 Sink-limitation to yield and biomass: a summary of some investigations in spring wheat Ann. Appl. Biol. 146 39-49
36. Riedijk A, Wilgenburg R V, Koomen E and Beurden J B V 2007 Integrated Scenarios of Socio-Economic and Climate Change; a Framework for the 'Climate Changes Spatial Planning' Programme (Amsterdam: Spinlab Reseach Memorandum SL-06, VU, MNP)
37. Rienks W A and Meulenkamp W J H 2009 Landbouwatlas van Nederland (Hengelo, the Netherlands: ROM3D)
38. Rijk B, van Ittersum M and Withagen J 2013 Genetic progress in Dutch crop yields Field Crops Res. 149 262-8
39. Rosenzweig C et al 2013 The agricultural model intercomparison and improvement project (AgMIP): protocols and pilot studies Agric. Forest Meteorol. 170 166-82
40. Rosenzweig C et al 2014 Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 111 3268-73
41. Rotmans J and Van Asselt M 1998 Integrated assessment: a growing child on its way to maturity Clim. Change 34 327-36
42. Rötter R P, Carter T R, Olesen J E and Porter J R 2011 Crop-climate models need an overhaul Nat. Clim. Change 1 175-7
43. Rurinda J, Mapfumo P, van Wijk M T, Mtambanengwe F, Rufino M C, Chikowo R and Giller K E 2013 Managing soil fertility to adapt to rainfall variability in smallholder cropping systems in Zimbabwe Field Crop Res. 154 211-25
44. Schaap B, Blom-Zandstra M, Hermans C M L, Meerburg B G and Verhagen J 2011 Impact changes of climatic extremes on arable farming in the north of the Netherlands Reg. Environ. Change 11 731-41
45. Schaap B F, Reidsma P, Verhagen J, Wolf J and van Ittersum M K 2013 Participatory design of farm level adaptation to climate risks in an arable region in The Netherlands Eur. J. Agron. 48 30-42
46. Trnka M et al 2011 Agroclimatic conditions in Europe under climate change Glob. Change Biol. 17 2298-318
47. Troost C and Berger T 2014 Dealing with uncertainty in agent-based simulation: farm-level modeling of adaptation to climate change in Southwest Germany Am. J. Agric. Econ. at press
48. van den Hurk B et al 2006 KNMI Climate Change Scenarios 2006 For The Netherlands (De Bilt, the Netherlands: KNMI)
49. Van Ittersum M K, Cassman K G, Grassini P, Wolf J, Tittonell P and Hochman Z 2013 Yield gap analysis with local to global relevance - a review Field Crops Res. 143 4-17
50. Van Ittersum M K et al 2008 Integrated assessment of agricultural systems - a component-based framework for the European Union (SEAMLESS) Agric. Syst. 96 150-65
51. Van Oort P A J, Timmermans B G H, Meinke H and Van Ittersum M K 2012 Key weather extremes affecting potato production in the Netherlands Eur. J. Agron. 37 11-22
52. Wolf J, Mandryk M, Kanellopoulos A, Van Oort P, Schaap B, Reidsma P and Van Ittersum M 2011 Integrated assessment of adaptation to climate change in Flevoland at the farm and regional level AgriAdapt Reports no. 4&5 (Wageningen: Wageningen University and Research Centre)
53. Xiao D and Tao F 2014 Contributions of cultivars, management and climate change to winter wheat yield in the North China plain in the past three decades Eur. J. Agron. 52 112-22