Patterns of bird migration phenology in South Africa suggest northern hemisphere climate as the most consistent driver of change

Global Change Biology

Volumn 21, Issue 6, 2015, Pages 2179-2190

  Bussière, Elsa M S ^a   Underhill, Les G ^a   Altwegg, Res ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CAPE TOWN   (South Africa)

Author keywords

Bird migration; Climate change; Intra African migrants; Life cycle timing; Palearctic migrants; Phenological shift; South Africa; Southern hemisphere; Waterbirds

Indexed keywords

BIRD; BREEDING SITE; CLIMATE CHANGE; HABITAT USE; LIFE CYCLE; NORTHERN HEMISPHERE; PHENOLOGY; POPULATION MIGRATION;

SOUTH AFRICA;

ACTITIS HYPOLEUCOS; AVES; CHLIDONIAS LEUCOPTERUS;

ANIMAL; BIRD; CLIMATE CHANGE; PHYSIOLOGY; POPULATION MIGRATION; REPRODUCTION; SEASON; SOUTH AFRICA; TIME FACTOR;

ANIMAL MIGRATION; ANIMALS; BIRDS; CLIMATE CHANGE; REPRODUCTION; SEASONS; SOUTH AFRICA; TIME FACTORS;

EID: 84928365340     PISSN: 13541013     EISSN: 13652486     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12857     Document Type: Article

References (69)

1. Altwegg R, Broms K, Erni B, Barnard P, Midgley GF, Underhill LG (2012) Novel methods reveal shifts in migration phenology of barn swallows in South Africa. Proceedings Biological Sciences/The Royal Society, 279, 1485-1490.
2. Ball T (1990) The migration of geese as an indicator of climate change in the southern Hudson Bay region between 1715 and 1851. Climatic Change, 5, 85-93.
3. Benson CW (1982) Migrants in the Afrotropical region south of the equator. Ostrich, 53, 31-49.
4. Benson CW, Brooke RK, Dowsett RJ (1971) The Birds of Zambia. Collins, London.
5. Berthold P (1973) Proposal for the standardization of the presentation of data of annual events, especially migration data. Auspicium, 5, 49-59.
6. Both C (2010) Flexibility of timing of avian migration to climate change masked by environmental constraints en route. Current Biology, 20, 243-248.
7. Both C, Te Marvelde L (2007) Climate change and timing of avian breeding and migration throughout Europe. Climate Research, 35, 93-105.
8. Broekhuysen GJ (1974) Third report on migration in Southern Africa. Ostrich, 45, 235-250.
9. Brooke RK (1997) White-rumped swift. In: The Atlas of Southern African Birds (Including Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland and Zimbabwe) Volume 1: Non Passerines (eds Harrison JA, Allan DG, Underhill LG, Tree AJ, Parker V, Brown CJ), pp. 616-617. BirdLife South Africa, Johannesburg.
10. Brooke RK, Herroelen P (1988) The non-breeding range of southern African bred European bee-eaters Merops apiaster. Ostrich, 59, 63-65.
11. Burnham KP, Anderson DR (2002) Model Selection and Multimodel Inference: A Practical Information-Theoretic Approach, 2nd edn. Springer, New York.
12. Burrows MT, Schoeman DS, Buckley LB et al. (2011) The pace of shifting climate in marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Science, 334, 652-655.
13. Chambers LE, Altwegg R, Barbraud C et al. (2013) Phenological changes in the Southern Hemisphere. PLoS ONE, 8, e75514.
14. Cramp S (1985) The Birds of the Western Palearctic. Volume 4. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
15. Cramp S (1993) The Birds of the Western Palearctic. Volume 7. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
16. Cramp S, Simmons KEL (1983) The Birds of the Western Palearctic. Volume 3. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
17. Cumming RS (1952) A review of the migratory tendencies of Apus caffer caffer Licht. the Cape white-rumped swift. Ostrich, 23, 116-119.
18. Curry-Lindahl K (1981) Bird Migration in Africa. Volume 1. Academic Press, London.
19. Dean WRJ (2000) The Birds of Angola: An Annotated Check-List. BOU Check-List No. 18. British Ornithologists' Union, Tring.
20. Earlé RA (1997) Whitethroated swallow. In: The Atlas of Southern African Birds (Including Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland and Zimbabwe) Volume 2: Passerines (eds Harrison JA, Allan DG, Underhill LG, Tree AJ, Parker V, Brown CJ), pp. 50-51. BirdLife South Africa, Johannesburg.
21. Fry CH, Keith S, Urban EK (1988) The Birds of Africa. Volume 3. Academic Press, London.
22. Fry CH, Keith S, Urban EK (2000) The Birds of Africa. Volume 6. Academic Press, London.
23. Garcia RA, Cabeza M, Rahbek C, Araújo MB (2014) Multiple dimensions of climate change and their implications for biodiversity. Science, 344. doi: 10.1126/science.1247579.
24. Giorgi F (2006) Climate change hot-spots. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L08707.
25. Gordo O (2007) Why are bird migration dates shifting? A review of weather and climate effects on avian migratory phenology. Climate Research, 35, 37-58.
26. Griffioen PA, Clarke MF (2002) Large-scale bird-movement patterns evident in eastern Australian atlas data. Emu, 102, 99-125.
27. Harris T, Franklin K (2000) Shrikes and Bush-Shrikes. Christopher Helm, London.
28. Harrison JA, Underhill LG (1997) Introduction and methods. In: The Atlas of Southern African Birds (Including Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland and Zimbabwe) Volume 1: Non Passerines (eds Harrison JA, Allan DG, Underhill LG, Tree AJ, Parker V, Brown CJ), pp. xliii-lxiv. BirdLife South Africa, Johannesburg.
29. Harrison JA, Allan DG, Underhill LG, Herremans M, Tree AJ, Parker V, Brown CJ (1997a) The Atlas of Southern African Birds (Including Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland and Zimbabwe) Volume 1: Non Passerines. BirdLife South Africa, Johannesburg.
30. Harrison JA, Allan DG, Underhill LG, Herremans M, Tree AJ, Parker V, Brown CJ (1997b) The Atlas of Southern African Birds (Including Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland and Zimbabwe) Volume 2: Passerines. BirdLife South Africa, Johannesburg.
31. Herremans M (1994) Fifteen years of migrant phenology records in Botswana: a summary and prospects. Babbler, 28, 47-68.
32. Hockey P, Douie C (1995) Waders of Southern Africa. Struik Winchester, Cape Town.
33. Huntley B, Altwegg R, Barnard P, Collingham YC, Hole DG (2012) Modelling relationships between species spatial abundance patterns and climate. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 21, 668-681.
34. IPCC (2013) Observations: atmosphere and surface. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner GK, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY.
35. Jenni L, Kéry M (2003) Timing of autumn bird migration under climate change: advances in long-distance migrants, delays in short-distance migrants. Proceedings Biological Sciences/The Royal Society, 270, 1467-1471.
36. Jonzen N, Linde A, Ergon T et al. (2006) Rapid advance of spring arrival dates in long-distance migratory birds. Science, 312, 1959-1961.
37. Keith S, Urban EK, Fry CH (1992) The Birds of Africa. Volume 4. Academic Press, London.
38. Knudsen E, Lindén A, Both C et al. (2011) Challenging claims in the study of migratory birds and climate change. Biological Reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society, 86, 928-946.
39. Lefranc N, Worfolk T (1997) A Guide to the Shrikes of the World. Pica Press, Sussex.
40. Loftie-Eaton M (2014) MSc Thesis: Geographic Dynamics of South Africa's Bird Species. University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa.
41. Maclean GL (1993) Robert's Birds of Southern Africa, 6th edn. Voelcker Bird Book Fund, Cape Town.
42. Marra PP, Francis CM, Mulvihill RS, Moore FR (2005) The influence of climate on the timing and rate of spring bird migration. Oecologia, 142, 307-315.
43. McCarthy MA, Masters PIP (2005) Profiting from prior information in Bayesian analyses of ecological data. Journal of Applied Ecology, 42, 1012-1019.
44. Paeth H, Born K, Girmes R, Podzun R, Jacob D (2009) Regional climate change in tropical and northern Africa due to greenhouse forcing and land use changes. Journal of Climate, 22, 114-132.
45. Parmesan C (2006) Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent Climate change. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, 37, 637-669.
46. Parmesan C, Yohe G (2003) A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature, 421, 37-42.
47. Pearson DJ, Lack PC (1992) Migration patterns and habitat use by passerine and near-passerine migrant birds in eastern Africa. Ibis, 134, 89-98.
48. Plummer M (2003) JAGS: A program for analysis of Bayesian graphical models using Gibbs sampling. In: Proceedings of the 3rd International Workshop on Distributed Statistical Computing (eds Hornik K, Leisch F, Zeileis A), p. ISSN 1609-395X. University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
49. Plummer M (2014) rjags: Bayesian graphical models using MCMC. R package version 3-13.
50. R Core Team (2013) R: A language and environment for statistical computing.
51. Robertson A, Simmons RE, Jarvis AM, Brown CJ (1995) Can bird atlas data be used to estimate population size? A case study using Namibian endemics. Biological Conservation, 71, 87-95.
52. Rogacheva EV (1992) The Birds of Central Siberia. Husum Druck- und Verlagsgesellschaft, Husum.
53. Root TL, Price JT, Hall KR, Schneider SH, Rosenzweig C, Pounds JA (2003) Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. Nature, 421, 57-60.
54. Rubolini D, Møller A, Rainio K, Lehikoinen E (2007) Intraspecific consistency and geographic variability in temporal trends of spring migration phenology among European bird species. Climate Research, 35, 135-146.
55. Snow DW, Perrins CM (1998a) The Birds of the Western Palearctic, Concise Edition, Volume 1. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
56. Snow DW, Perrins CM (1998b) The Birds of the Western Palearctic, Concise Edition, Volume 2. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
57. Thorup K, Tøttrup AP, Rahbek C (2007) Patterns of phenological changes in migratory birds. Oecologia, 151, 697-703.
58. Tøttrup AP, Thorup K, Rainio K, Yosef R, Lehikoinen E, Rahbek C (2008) Avian migrants adjust migration in response to environmental conditions en route. Biology Letters, 4, 685-688.
59. Tree AJ (1985) Analysis of ringing recoveries of ruff involving southern Africa. Safring News, 14, 75-79.
60. Tree AJ (2005) Common sandpiper (Actitis hypoleucos). In: Roberts Birds of Southern Africa, 7th edn (eds Hockey P, Dean W, Ryan P), pp. 0-0. The trustees of the John Voelcker Bird Book Fund, Cape Town, South Africa.
61. Tryjanowski P, Sparks TH (2001) Is the detection of the first arrival date of migrating birds influenced by population size? A case study of the red-backed shrike Lanius collurio. International Journal of Biometeorology, 45, 217-219.
62. Turner A, Rose C (1989) A Handbook to the Swallows and Martins of the World. Christopher Helm, London.
63. Underhill LG (1997) Ruff. In: The Atlas of Southern African Birds (Including Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland and Zimbabwe) Volume 1: Non Passerines (eds Harrison JA, Allan DG, Underhill LG, Tree AJ, Parker V, Brown CJ), pp. 424-425. BirdLife South Africa, Johannesburg.
64. Underhill LG, Prys-Jones RP, Harrison JA, Martinez P (1992) Seasonal patterns of occurrence of Palaearctic migrants in southern Africa using atlas data. Ibis, 134, 99-108.
65. Urban EK, Fry CH, Keith S (1986) The Birds of Africa. Academic Press, London.
66. Urban EK, Fry CH, Keith S (1997) The Birds of Africa, Volume. 5. Academic Press, London.
67. Wetlands International (2014) Waterbird population estimates.
68. Williams AJ, Underhill LG (1997) Whitewinged tern. In: The Atlas of Southern African Birds (Including Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland and Zimbabwe) Volume 1: Non Passerines (eds Harrison JA, Allan DG, Underhill LG, Tree AJ, Parker V, Brown CJ), pp. 484-485. BirdLife South Africa, Johannesburg.
69. Zöckler C (2002) Declining ruff Philomachus pugnax: a response to global warming? Wader Study Group Bull, 97, 19-29.