Are climate model simulations useful for forecasting precipitation trends? Hindcast and synthetic-data experiments

Environmental Research Letters

Volumn 9, Issue 2, 2014, Pages

  Krakauer, Nir Y ^a   Fekete, Balázs M ^a  

^a CITY UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK   (United States)

Author keywords

climate change; climate model; extrapolation; hydrologic prediction; nonstationarity; precipitation; trend estimation

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; ESTIMATION; EXPERIMENTS; EXTRAPOLATION; FORECASTING; MEAN SQUARE ERROR; PRECIPITATION (CHEMICAL); WATER RESOURCES; WATER SUPPLY;

CLIMATE MODEL SIMULATIONS; GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL; HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION; NON-STATIONARITIES; PRECIPITATION ESTIMATION; ROOT MEAN SQUARE ERRORS; TREND ESTIMATION; WATER RESOURCE PLANNING;

CLIMATE MODELS;

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; CLIMATE VARIATION; DATA SET; FORECASTING METHOD; NUMERICAL MODEL; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); PRECIPITATION ASSESSMENT; PREDICTION;

EID: 84928096191     PISSN: None     EISSN: 17489326     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/9/2/024009     Document Type: Article

References (39)

1. Milly P C D, Betancourt J, Falkenmark M, Hirsch R M, Kundzewicz Z W, Lettenmaier D P and Stouffer R J 2008 Stationarity is dead: whither water management? Science 319 573-4
2. Towler E, Rajagopalan B, Gilleland E, Summers R S, Yates D and Katz R W 2010 Modeling hydrologic and water quality extremes in a changing climate: a statistical approach based on extreme value theory Water Resources Res. 46 W11504
3. Jakob D 2013 Nonstationary in extremes and engineering design Extremes in a Changing Climate ((Water Science and Technology Library vol 65)) (Dordrecht: Springer) pp 363-417
4. Phillips T J and Gleckler P J 2006 Evaluation of continental precipitation in 20th century climate simulations: the utility of multimodel statistics Water Resources Res. 42 W03202
5. Trenberth K 2011 Changes in precipitation with climate change Clim. Res. 47 123-38
6. Anagnostopoulos G G, Koutsoyiannis D, Christofides A, Efstratiadis A and Mamassi N 2010 A comparison of local and aggregated climate model outputs with observed data Hydrol. Sci. J. 55 1094-110
7. Stakhiv E Z 2011 Pragmatic approaches for water management under climate change uncertainty J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc. 47 1183-96
8. Fekete B M and Stakhiv E 2013 Water management preparation strategies for adaptation to changing climate Climate Change and Inland Waters: Impacts and Mitigation for Ecosystems and Societies ed C R Goldman, M Kumagai and R D Robarts (New York: Wiley) chapter 23
9. Zhang X, Zwiers F W, Hegerl G C, Lambert F H, Gillett N P, Solomon S, Stott P A and Nozawa T 2007 Detection of human influence on twentieth-century precipitation trends Nature 448 461-6
10. Min S-K, Zhang X, Zwiers F W and Hegerl G C 2011 Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes Nature 470 378-81
11. Becker A, Finger P, Meyer-Christoffer A, Rudolf B, Schamm K, Schneider U and Ziese M 2013 A description of the global land-surface precipitation data products of the global precipitation climatology centre with sample applications including centennial (trend) analysis from 1901-present Earth Syst. Sci. Data 5 71-99
12. Wan H, Zhang X, Zwiers F W and Shiogama H 2013 Effect of data coverage on the estimation of mean and variability of precipitation at global and regional scales J. Geophys. Res. 118 534-46
13. van Oldenborgh G J, Reyes F J D, Drijfhout S S and Hawkins E 2013 Reliability of regional climate model trends Environ. Res. Lett. 8 014055
14. Taylor K E, Stouffer R J and Meehl G A 2012 An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 93 485-98
15. van Vuuren D P et al 2011 The representative concentration pathways: an overview Clim. Change 109 5-31
16. Peters G P, Andrew R M, Boden T, Canadell J G, Ciais P, Le Quere C, Marland G, Raupach M R and Wilson C 2013 The challenge to keep global warming below 2°C Nature Clim. Change 3 4-6
17. Hahmann A N and Dickinson R E 2001 A fine-mesh land approach for general circulation models and its impact on regional climate J. Clim. 14 1634-46
18. Cherkassky V and Mulier F 2007 Learning From Data: Concepts, Theory, and Methods (New York: Wiley)
19. Krakauer N Y 2012 Estimating climate trends: application to US plant hardiness zones Adv. Meteorol. 2012 404876
20. Lambert S J and Boer G J 2001 CMIP1 evaluation and intercomparison of coupled climate models Clim. Dyn. 17 83-106
21. Gleckler P J, Taylor K E and Doutriaux C 2008 Performance metrics for climate models J. Geophys. Res. 113 27
22. Pierce D W, Barnett T P, Santer B D and Gleckler P J 2009 Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. 106 8441-6
23. Sanderson B M and Knutti R 2012 On the interpretation of constrained climate model ensembles Geophys. Res. Lett. 39 L16708
24. Milly P C D, Dunne K A and Vecchia A V 2005 Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate Nature 438 347-50
25. Gedney N, Cox P M, Betts R A, Boucher O, Huntingford C and Stott P A 2006 Detection of a direct carbon dioxide effect in continental river runoff records Nature 439 835-8
26. Piao S, Friedlingstein P, Ciais P, de Noblet-Ducoudre N, Labat D and Zaehle S 2007 Changes in climate and land use have a larger direct impact than rising CO2 on global river runoff trends Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 104 15242-7
27. Krakauer N Y and Fung I 2008 Mapping and attribution of change in streamflow in the coterminous US Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 12 1111-20
28. Dai A 2011 Characteristics and trends in various forms of the palmer drought severity index (PDSI) during 1900-2008 J. Geophys. Res. 116 D12115
29. Fekete B M, Vörösmarty C J, Roads J O and Willmott C J 2004 Uncertainties in precipitation and their impacts on runoff estimates J. Clim. 17 294-304
30. Fekete B M, Looser U, Pietroniro A and Robarts R D 2012 Rationale for monitoring discharge on the ground J. Hydrometeorol. 13 1977-86
31. Stott P A and Kettleborough J A 2002 Origins and estimates of uncertainty in predictions of twenty-first century temperature rise Nature 416 723-6
32. Bhend J and von Storch H 2008 Consistency of observed winter precipitation trends in northern Europe with regional climate change projections Clim. Dyn. 31 17-28
33. van Haren R, van Oldenborgh G J, Lenderink G, Collins M and Hazeleger W 2013 SST and circulation trend biases cause an underestimation of European precipitation trends Clim. Dyn. 40 1-20
34. Shin S-I and Sardeshmukh P D 2011 Critical influence of the pattern of Tropical Ocean warming on remote climate trends Clim. Dyn. 36 1577-91
35. Liu C and Allan R P 2013 Observed and simulated precipitation responses in wet and dry regions 1850-2100 Environ. Res. Lett. 8 034002
36. Lambert F H, Stine A R, Krakauer N Y and Chiang J C H 2008 How much will precipitation increase with global warming? Eos 89 193-4
37. Wu P, Christidis N and Stott P 2013 Anthropogenic impact on Earth's hydrological cycle Nature Clim. Change 3 807-10
38. Wilcox L J, Highwood E J and Dunstone N J 2013 The influence of anthropogenic aerosol on multi-decadal variations of historical global climate Environ. Res. Lett. 8 024033
39. Monteleoni C, Schmidt G A, Saroha S and Asplund E 2011 Tracking climate models Statist. Anal. Data Min. 4 372-92