Assessing uncertainty in soil organic carbon modeling across a highly heterogeneous landscape

Geoderma

Volumn 251-252, Issue , 2015, Pages 105-116

  Xiong, Xiong ^a   Grunwald, Sabine ^a   Myers, D Brenton ^b   Kim, Jongsung ^a   Harris, Willie G ^a   Bliznyuk, Nikolay ^c,d  

^a UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF MISSOURI   (United States)

^c University of Florida   (United States)

^d University of Florida   (United States)

Author keywords

Bayesian geostatistics; Soil organic carbon; Uncertainty

Indexed keywords

AGRICULTURAL ROBOTS; BAYESIAN NETWORKS; CLIMATE CHANGE; FINANCIAL MARKETS; FORECASTING; MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD; ORGANIC CARBON; PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS; REACTOR CORES; SOILS;

EVERGLADES AGRICULTURAL AREAS; GEO-STATISTICS; GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGES; HETEROGENEOUS LANDSCAPES; PREDICTION UNCERTAINTY; RESTRICTED MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD; SOIL ORGANIC CARBON; UNCERTAINTY;

UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

CARBON CYCLE; ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECT; GEOSTATISTICS; MODEL VALIDATION; SOIL CARBON; SOIL ORGANIC MATTER; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

EVERGLADES; FLORIDA [UNITED STATES]; SUWANNEE BASIN; UNITED STATES;

EID: 84926505359     PISSN: 00167061     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.geoderma.2015.03.028     Document Type: Article

References (60)

1. Aelion C.M., Davis H.T., Liu Y., Lawson A.B., McDermott S. Validation of Bayesian kriging of arsenic, chromium, lead, and mercury surface soil concentrations based on internode sampling. Environ. Sci. Technol. 2009, 43:4432-4438. 10.1021/es803322w.
2. Batjes N.H., Sombroek W.G. Possibilities for carbon sequestration in tropical and subtropical soils. Glob. Chang. Biol. 1997, 3:161-173. 10.1046/j.1365-2486.1997.00062.x.
3. Bernardo J.M., Smith A.F.M. Bayesian Theory 2000, Wiley, New York. 1st ed.
4. Carpenter S.R., Armbrust E.V., Arzberger P.W., Stuart Chapin F., Elser J.J., Hackett E.J., Ives A.R., Kareiva P.M., Leibold M.A., Lundberg P. Accelerate synthesis in ecology and environmental sciences. Bioscience 2009, 59:699-701.
5. Carré F., McBratney A.B., Mayr T., Montanarella L. Digital soil assessments: Beyond DSM. Geoderma 2007, 142:69-79. 10.1016/j.geoderma.2007.08.015.
6. Cressie N.A.C. Statistics for Spatial Data 1993, Wiley, New York. Revised ed.
7. de Gruijter J., Brus D., Bierkens M., Knotters M. Sampling for Natural Resource Monitoring 2006, Springer, Berlin; New York.
8. Diggle P., Ribeiro P.J. Model-based Geostatistics, Softcover Reprint of Hardcover 1st ed 2010, Springer, New York, NY. 2007 ed.
9. Diggle P.J., Tawn J.A., Moyeed R.A. Model-based geostatistics. J. R. Stat. Soc.: Ser. C: Appl. Stat. 1998, 47:299-350. 10.1111/1467-9876.00113.
10. Finley A.O., Banerjee S., Carlin B.P. spBayes: an R package for univariate and multivariate hierarchical point-referenced spatial models. J. Stat. Softw. 2007, 19:1-24.
11. Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FFWCC) Florida Vegetation and Land Cover Data Derived from Landsat ETM+ Imagery 2003.
12. Grunwald S. Multi-criteria characterization of recent digital soil mapping and modeling approaches. Geoderma 2009, 152:195-207. 10.1016/j.geoderma.2009.06.003.
13. Grunwald S., Thompson J.A., Boettinger J.L. Digital soil mapping and modeling at continental scales: finding solutions for global issues. Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J. 2011, 75:1201-1213. 10.2136/sssaj2011.0025.
14. Handcock M.S., Stein M.L. A Bayesian analysis of kriging. Technometrics 1993, 35:403-410. 10.1080/00401706.1993.10485354.
15. Heimann M., Reichstein M. Terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics and climate feedbacks. Nature 2008, 451:289-292. 10.1038/nature06591.
16. Heuvelink G.B.M., Burrough P.A., Stein A. Propagation of errors in spatial modelling with GIS. Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Syst. 1989, 3:303-322. 10.1080/02693798908941518.
17. Heuvelink G.B.M., Burgers S.L.G.E., Tiktak A., Den Berg F.V. Uncertainty and stochastic sensitivity analysis of the GeoPEARL pesticide leaching model. Geoderma 2010, 155:186-192. 10.1016/j.geoderma.2009.07.004.
18. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis 2013, United Nations, Geneva, Switzerland.
19. Janzen H.H. Carbon cycling in earth systems-a soil science perspective. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 2004, 104:399-417. 10.1016/j.agee.2004.01.040.
20. Jobbágy E.G., Jackson R.B. The vertical distribution of soil organic carbon and its relation to climate and vegetation. Ecol. Appl. 2000, 10:423-436. 10.1890/1051-0761(2000)010[0423:TVDOSO]2.0.CO;2.
21. Kazianka H., Pilz J. Objective Bayesian analysis of spatial data with uncertain nugget and range parameters. Can. J. Stat. 2012, 40:304-327. 10.1002/cjs.11132.
22. Lark R.M., Cullis B.R. Model-based analysis using REML for inference from systematically sampled data on soil. Eur. J. Soil Sci. 2004, 55:799-813. 10.1111/j.1365-2389.2004.00637.x.
23. Lark R.M., Cullis B.R., Welham S.J. On spatial prediction of soil properties in the presence of a spatial trend: the empirical best linear unbiased predictor (E-BLUP) with REML. Eur. J. Soil Sci. 2006, 57:787-799. 10.1111/j.1365-2389.2005.00768.x.
24. Liu D., Wang Z., Zhang B., Song K., Li X., Li J., Li F., Duan H. Spatial distribution of soil organic carbon and analysis of related factors in croplands of the black soil region, Northeast China. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 2006, 113:73-81. 10.1016/j.agee.2005.09.006.
25. Matheron G. Principles of geostatistics. Econ. Geol. 1963, 58:1246-1266. 10.2113/gsecongeo.58.8.1246.
26. McBratney A.B. On variation, uncertainty and informatics in environmental soil management. Aust. J. Soil Res. 1992, 30:913-935.
27. McBratney A.B., Mendonça Santos M.L., Minasny B. On digital soil mapping. Geoderma 2003, 117:3-52. 10.1016/S0016-7061(03)00223-4.
28. McHenry M.P. Agricultural bio-char production, renewable energy generation and farm carbon sequestration in Western Australia: certainty, uncertainty and risk. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 2009, 129:1-7. 10.1016/j.agee.2008.08.006.
29. Minasny B., McBratney A.B. The Matérn function as a general model for soil variograms. Geoderma 2005, 128:192-207. 10.1016/j.geoderma.2005.04.003.
30. Minasny B., McBratney A.B. Spatial prediction of soil properties using EBLUP with the Matérn covariance function. Geoderma 2007, 140:324-336. 10.1016/j.geoderma.2007.04.028.
31. Minasny B., Vrugt J.A., McBratney A.B. Confronting uncertainty in model-based geostatistics using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. Geoderma 2011, 163:150-162. 10.1016/j.geoderma.2011.03.011.
32. Minasny B., McBratney A.B., Malone B.P., Wheeler I. Digital mapping of soil carbon. Advances in Agronomy 2013, 1-47. Academic Press. D.L. Sparks (Ed.).
33. Moss R.H., Edmonds J.A., Hibbard K.A., Manning M.R., Rose S.K., van Vuuren D.P., Carter T.R., Emori S., Kainuma M., Kram T., Meehl G.A., Mitchell J.F.B., Nakicenovic N., Riahi K., Smith S.J., Stouffer R.J., Thomson A.M., Weyant J.P., Wilbanks T.J. The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 2010, 463:747-756. 10.1038/nature08823.
34. National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Monthly Surface Data 2008.
35. Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS), U.S. Department of Agriculture Soil Survey Geographic Database (SSURGO) 2009.
36. North American Carbon Project (NACP) Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for North American Carbon Project (MODIS4NACP) 2005.
37. Odeh I.O.A., McBratney A.B., Chittleborough D.J. Further results on prediction of soil properties from terrain attributes: heterotopic cokriging and regression-kriging. Geoderma 1995, 67:215-226. 10.1016/0016-7061(95)00007-B.
38. Ogle S.M., Breidt F.J., Easter M., Williams S., Killian K., Paustian K. Scale and uncertainty in modeled soil organic carbon stock changes for US croplands using a process-based model. Glob. Chang. Biol. 2010, 16:810-822. 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.01951.x.
39. Ovalles F.A., Collins M.E. Evaluation of soil variability in northwest Florida using geostatistics. Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J. 1988, 52:1702-1708. 10.2136/sssaj1988.03615995005200060036x.
40. Pringle M.J., Allen D.E., Phelps D.G., Bray S.G., Orton T.G., Dalal R.C. The effect of pasture utilization rate on stocks of soil organic carbon and total nitrogen in a semi-arid tropical grassland. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 2014, 195:83-90. 10.1016/j.agee.2014.05.013.
41. R. Development Core Team R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing 2012, R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria.
42. Reid H., Haque U., Clements A.C.A., Tatem A.J., Vallely A., Ahmed S.M., Islam A., Haque R. Mapping malaria risk in Bangladesh using Bayesian geostatistical models. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg. 2010, 83:861-867. 10.4269/ajtmh. 2010.10-0154.
43. Ribeiro P.J., Diggle P.J. geoR: a package for geostatistical analysis. R-News 2001, 1:15-18.
44. Rivero R.G., Grunwald S., Bruland G.L. Incorporation of spectral data into multivariate geostatistical models to map soil phosphorus variability in a Florida wetland. Geoderma 2007, 140:428-443. 10.1016/j.geoderma.2007.04.026.
45. Rossini A., Li N., Tierney L. Simple parallel statistical computing in R. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 2007, 399-420. 10.1198/106186007X178979.
46. Schmidberger M., Morgan M., Eddelbuettel D., Yu H., Tierney L., Mansmann U. State-of-the-art in parallel computing with R. J. Stat. Softw. 2009, 47.
47. Spiegelhalter D.J., Best N.G., Carlin B.P., Van Der Linde A. Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit. J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. B Stat. Methodol. 2002, 64:583-639. 10.1111/1467-9868.00353.
48. Stein M.L. Interpolation of Spatial Data: Some Theory for Kriging 1999, Springer, New York.
49. Sun X.-L., Wu S.-C., Wang H.-L., Zhao Y.-G., Zhang G.-L., Man Y.B., Wong M.H. Dealing with spatial outliers and mapping uncertainty for evaluating the effects of urbanization on soil: a case study of soil pH and particle fractions in Hong Kong. Geoderma 2013, 195-196:220-233. 10.1016/j.geoderma.2012.11.017.
50. United States Census Bureau The Boundary of the State of Florida 2000.
51. United States Geological Survey (USGS) National Elevation Dataset (NED) 1999.
52. Vasques G.M., Grunwald S., Comerford N.B., Sickman J.O. Regional modelling of soil carbon at multiple depths within a subtropical watershed. Geoderma 2010, 156:326-336. 10.1016/j.geoderma.2010.03.002.
53. Vasques G.M., Grunwald S., Sickman J.O., Comerford N.B. Upscaling of dynamic soil organic carbon pools in a north-central Florida watershed. Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J. 2010, 74:870-879.
54. Vasques G.M., Grunwald S., Myers D.B. Associations between soil carbon and ecological landscape variables at escalating spatial scales in Florida, USA. Landsc. Ecol. 2012, 27:355-367. 10.1007/s10980-011-9702-3.
55. Wang G., Huang Y., Wang E., Yu Y., Zhang W. Modeling soil organic carbon change across Australian wheat growing areas, 1960-2010. PLoS ONE 2013, 8:e63324. 10.1371/journal.pone.0063324.
56. Wilkinson D.J. Parallel Bayesian computation, in: statistics textbook and monographs. Handbook of Parallel Computing and Statistics 2005, 481-512. CRC Press, New York.
57. Xiong X., Grunwald S., Myers D.B., Kim J., Harris W.G., Comerford N.B. Holistic environmental soil-landscape modeling of soil organic carbon. Environ. Model. Softw. 2014, 202-215. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.03.004.
58. Xiong X., Grunwald S., Myers D.B., Ross C.W., Harris W.G., Comerford N.B. Interaction effects of climate and land use/land cover change on soil organic carbon sequestration. Sci. Total Environ. 2014, 493:974-982. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.06.088.
59. Zhang H. On estimation and prediction for spatial generalized linear mixed models. Biometrics 2002, 58:129-136. 10.1111/j.0006-341X.2002.00129.x.
60. Zimmerman D.L., Zimmerman M.B. A comparison of spatial semivariogram estimators and corresponding ordinary kriging predictors. Technometrics 1991, 33:77-91. 10.2307/1269009.