Evaluation of Markov Chain Based Drought Forecasts in an Andean Regulated River Basin Using the Skill Scores RPS and GMSS

Water Resources Management

Volumn 29, Issue 6, 2015, Pages 1949-1963

  Avilés, Alex ^a   Célleri, Rolando ^a   Paredes, Javier ^b   Solera, Abel ^b  

^a UNIVERSIDAD DE CUENCA   (Ecuador)

^b UNIVERSITAT POLITÈCNICA DE VALÈNCIA   (Spain)

Author keywords

Andean basins; Drought index; Forecast evaluation; Markov Chains; Probabilistic forecast

Indexed keywords

DECISION MAKING; DROUGHT; RIVERS; STOCHASTIC MODELS; STOCHASTIC SYSTEMS; WATERSHEDS; WEATHER FORECASTING;

ANDEAN BASINS; DECISION MAKERS; DROUGHT INDICES; DROUGHT SEVERITY; FORECAST EVALUATION; FORECASTING MODELS; PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS; REGULATED RIVER;

MARKOV CHAINS;

EID: 84925504832     PISSN: 09204741     EISSN: 15731650     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s11269-015-0921-2     Document Type: Article

References (44)

1. Akaike H (1974) A new look at the statistical model identification. IEEE Trans Autom Contr 19:716–723. doi:10.1109/TAC.1974.1100705
2. Banimahd SA, Khalili D (2013) Factors influencing markov chains predictability characteristics, utilizing SPI, RDI, EDI and SPEI drought indices in different climatic zones. Water Resour Manag 27:3911–3928. doi:10.1007/s11269-013-0387-z
3. Barua S, Asce SM, Ng AWM, Perera BJC (2011) Comparative evaluation of drought indexes: case study on the Yarra River catchment in Australia. J Water Resour Plan Manag 137:215–226. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000105
4. Barua S, Ng A, Perera B (2012) Drought assessment and forecasting: a case study on the Yarra River catchment in Victoria, Australia. Aust J Water Resour 15:95–108. doi:10.7158/W10-848.2012.15.2
5. Beniston M (2003) Climatic change in mountain regions: a review of possible impacts. Clim Chang 59:5–31
6. Buytaert W, Célleri R, De Bièvre B et al (2006a) Human impact on the hydrology of the Andean páramos. Earth Sci Rev 79:53–72. doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2006.06.002
7. Buytaert W, Celleri R, Willems P (2006b) Spatial and temporal rainfall variability in mountainous areas: a case study from the south Ecuadorian Andes. J Hydrol 329:413–421. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.02.031
8. Cancelliere A, Di Mauro G, Bonaccorso B, Rossi G (2007) Drought forecasting using the Standardized Precipitation Index. Water Resour Manag 21:801–819. doi:10.1007/s11269-006-9062-y
9. Celleri R, Willems P, Buytaert W, Feyen J (2007) Space – time rainfall variability in the Paute Basin, Ecuadorian Andes. Hydrol Process 21:3316–3327. doi:10.1002/hyp.6575
10. Gandin LS, Murphy AH (1992) Equitable Skills scores for categorical forecast. Mon Weather Rev 120:361–370
11. Gerrity JP (1992) A note on Gandin and Murphy’s Equitable Skill Scores. Mon Weather Rev 120:2709–2712
12. Keyantash JA, Dracup JA (2004) An aggregate drought index: assessing drought severity based on fluctuations in the hydrologic cycle and surface water storage. Water Resour Res 40:1–13. doi:10.1029/2003WR002610
13. Khalili D, Farnoud T, Jamshidi H et al (2011) Comparability analyses of the SPI and RDI meteorological drought indices in different climatic zones. Water Resour Manag 25:1737–1757. doi:10.1007/s11269-010-9772-z
14. Labadie JW, Asce M (2004) Optimal operation of multireservoir systems: state-of-the-art review. J Water Resour Plan Manag 130:93–111. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2004)130:2~93!
15. Lee S-E, Seo K-H (2013) The development of a statistical forecast model for changma. Weather Forecast 28:1304–1321. doi:10.1175/WAF-D-13-00003.1
16. Liu Y, Gupta H, Springer E, Wagener T (2008) Linking science with environmental decision making: experiences from an integrated modeling approach to supporting sustainable water resources management. Environ Model Softw 23:846–858. doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2007.10.007
17. Lohani VK, Loganathan GV (1997) An early warning system for drought management using the Palmer drought index. J Am Water Resour Assoc 33:1375–1386
18. Mason SJ (2004) On using “Climatology” as a reference strategy in the brier and ranked probability skill scores. Mon Weather Rev 132:1891–1895
19. Mauget S, Ko J (2008) A two-tier statistical forecast method for agricultural and resource management simulations. J Appl Meteorol Climatol 47:1573–1589. doi:10.1175/2007JAMC1749.1
20. McKee TB, Doesken NJ, Kleist J (1993) The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. Proc. 8th Conf. Appl. Climatol. American Meteorological Society Boston, MA, pp 179–183
21. Mishra a K, Desai VR (2005) Drought forecasting using stochastic models. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 19:326–339. doi:10.1007/s00477-005-0238-4
22. Mishra AK, Singh VP (2010) Review paper A review of drought concepts. J Hydrol 391:202–216. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.012
23. Mishra AK, Desai VR, Singh VP, Asce F (2007) Drought forecasting using a hybrid stochastic and neural network model. J Hydrol Eng 12:626–638. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)1084-0699(2007)12:6(626)
24. Moreira EE, Coelho C, Paulo A a et al (2008) SPI-based drought category prediction using loglinear models. J Hydrol 354:116–130. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.03.002
25. Muller WA, Appenzeller C, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Liniger MA (2005) A debiased ranked probability skill score to evaluate probabilistic ensemble forecasts with small ensemble sizes. J Clim 18:1513–1523. doi:10.1175/JCLI3361.1
26. Murphy A (1971) A note on the ranked probability score. J Appl Meteorol 10:155–156
27. Murphy AH (1977) The value of climatological, categorical and probabilistic forecasts in the cost-loss ratio situation. Mon Weather Rev 105:803–816. doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1977)105<0803:TVOCCA>2.0.CO;2
28. Nalbantis I, Tsakiris G (2009) Assessment of hydrological drought revisited. Water Resour Manag 23:881–897. doi:10.1007/s11269-008-9305-1
29. Palmer W (1965) Meteorological drought. Paper 45:65
30. Panu US, Sharma TC (2002) Challenges in drought research: some perspectives and future directions. Hydrol Sci J 47:S19–S30. doi:10.1080/02626660209493019
31. Paulo A, Pereira LS (2007) Prediction of SPI drought class transitions using Markov chains. Water Resour Manag 21:1813–1827. doi:10.1007/s11269-006-9129-9
32. Ries H, Schlünzen KH, Brümmer B et al (2010) Impact of surface parameter uncertainties on the development of a trough in the Fram Strait region. Tellus A 62:377–392. doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00451.x
33. Robertson DE, Wang QJ (2013) Seasonal forecasts of unregulated inflows into the Murray River, Australia. Water Resour Manag 27:2747–2769. doi:10.1007/s11269-013-0313-4
34. Schwarz G (1978) Estimating the dimension of a model. Ann Stat 6:461–464
35. Shukla S, Wood AW (2008) Use of a standardized runoff index for characterizing hydrologic drought. Geophys Res Lett 35:1–7. doi:10.1029/2007GL032487
36. Steinemann A (2003) Drought indicators and triggers: a stochastic approach to evaluation. J Am Water Resour Assoc 39:1217–1233
37. Steinemann AC, Cavalcanti LF (2006) Developing multiple indicators and triggers for drought plans. J Water Resour Plan Manag 132:164–174. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2006)132:3(164)
38. Svoboda M, Hayes M, Wilhite D, Tadesse T (2004) Recent advances in drought monitoring. Drought Mitig Cent Fac Publ 6
39. Tsakiris G, Vangelis H (2005) Establishing a drought index incorporating evapotranspiration. Eur Water 9:3–11
40. Vicente-Serrano SM, Beguería S, López-Moreno JI (2010) A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. J Clim 23:1696–1718. doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2909.1
41. Viviroli D, Archer DR, Buytaert W et al (2011) Climate change and mountain water resources: overview and recommendations for research, management and policy. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 15:471–504. doi:10.5194/hess-15-471-2011
42. Westphal KS, Laramie RL, Borgatti D, Stoops R (2007) Drought Management Planning with Economic and Risk Factors. J Water Resour Plan Manag 133:351–362. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2007)133:4(351)
43. Wilks DS (2011) Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences. Third Edit. 704
44. Zhang H, Casey T (2000) Verification of categorical probability forecasts. Weather Forecast 15:80–89