Simulating past changes in the balance between water demand and availability and assessing their main drivers at the river basin scale

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences

Volumn 19, Issue 3, 2015, Pages 1263-1285

  Fabre, J ^a   Ruelland, D ^a   Dezetter, A ^b   Grouillet, B ^a  

^a CNRS   (France)

^b INSTITUT DE RECHERCHE POUR LE DÉVELOPPEMENT   (France)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CATCHMENTS; POPULATION STATISTICS; RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT; RESERVOIRS (WATER); STREAM FLOW; WATER MANAGEMENT;

ADAPTATION POLICIES; ANTHROPOGENIC CHANGES; ANTHROPOGENIC PRESSURES; CLIMATIC VARIABILITY; HYDROLOGICAL MODELING; INTEGRATIVE MODELING; SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL VARIABILITY; WATER MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES;

WATER RESOURCES;

CATCHMENT; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE FORCING; DISCHARGE; HUMAN ACTIVITY; HYDROLOGICAL MODELING; IRRIGATION SYSTEM; MODEL VALIDATION; RESERVOIR; RIVER FLOW; SIMULATION; SPATIOTEMPORAL ANALYSIS; STREAMFLOW; URBAN AREA; WATER AVAILABILITY; WATER MANAGEMENT; WATER USE;

EBRO BASIN; FRANCE; HERAULT RIVER; LANGUEDOC-ROUSSILLON; SPAIN;

EID: 84924363047     PISSN: 10275606     EISSN: 16077938     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5194/hess-19-1263-2015     Document Type: Article

References (59)

1. Allen, R., Pereira, L., Raes, D., and Smith, M.: Crop evapotranspiration - guidelines for computing crop water requirements, FAO Irrigation and drainage paper, 56, 1998.
2. Arnell, N.: Climate change and global water resources: SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios, Global Environ. Change, 14, 31-52, 2004.
3. Arnell, N., van Vuuren, D., and Isaac, M.: The implications of climate policy for the impacts of climate change on global water resources, Global Environ. Change, 21, 592-603, 2011.
4. Asefa, T., Clayton, J., Adams, A., and Anderson, D.: Performance evaluation of a water resources system under varying climatic conditions: Reliability, Resilience, Vulnerability and beyond, J. Hydrol., 508, 53-65, 2014.
5. Beck, L. and Bernauer, T.: How will combined changes in water demand and climate affect water availability in the Zambezi river basin?, Global Environ. Change, 21, 1061-1072, 2011.
6. Bejarano, M., Marchamalo, M., de Jalon, D. G., and del Tánago, M. G.: Flow regime patterns and their controlling factors in the Ebro basin (Spain), J. Hydrol., 385, 323-335, 2010.
7. Boithias, L., Acña, V., Vergoñós, L., Ziv, G., Marcé, R., and Sabater, S.: Assessment of the water supply:demand ratios in a Mediterranean basin under different global change scenarios and mitigation alternatives, Sci. Total Environ., 470-471, 567-577, 2014.
8. CEDEX (Centro de estudios y experimentacion de obras publicas): Anuario de Aforos, available at: http://www.hercules.cedex.es/anuarioaforos/default.asp (last access: February 2014), 2012.
9. CHE (Confederación Hidrográfica del Ebro): Propuesta de Proyecto de Plan Hidrológico de la cuenca del Ebro, Memoria, available at: www.chebro.es (last access: October 2014), 2013.
10. Collet, L., Ruelland, D., Borrell-Estupina, V., Dezetter, A., and Servat, E.: Integrated modeling to assess long-term water supply capacity of a meso-scale Mediterranean catchment, Sci. Total Environ., 461-462, 528-540, 2013.
11. Collet, L., Ruelland, D., Borrell-Estupina, V., and Servat, E.: Assessing the long-term impact of climatic variability and human activities on the water resources of a meso-scale Mediterranean catchment, Hydrol. Sci. J., 59, 1457-1469, 2014.
12. th FRIEND Int. Conf., Montpellier, France, 7-10 October 2014), Vol. 363, 355-360, IAHS Publ., 2014.
13. European Commission: Directive 2000/60/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council establishing a framework for the Community action in the field of water policy, 2000.
14. European Commission: European Soil Database (distribution version V2.0), 2004.
15. th FRIEND Int. Conf., Montpellier, France, 7-10 October 2014), Vol. 363, 203-208, IAHS Publ., 2014.
16. Farley, K., Tague, C., and Grant, C.: Vulnerability of water supply from the Oregon Cascades to changing climate: Linking science to users and policy, Global Environ. Change, 21, 110-122, 2011.
17. Fowler, H., Kilsby, C., and O'Connel, P.: Modeling the impacts of climatic change and variability on the reliability, resilience, and vulnerability of a water resource system,Water Resour. Res., 39, 1222, doi:10.1029/2002WR001778, 2003.
18. Füssel, H.-M. and Klein, R.: Climate change vulnerability assessments: an evolution of conceptual thinking, Clim. Change, 75, 301-329, 2006.
19. Fujihara, Y., Tanaka, K., Watanabe, T., Nagano, T., and Kojiri, T.: Assessing the impacts of climate change on the water resources of the Seyhan River Basin in Turkey: Use of dynamically down-scaled data for hydrologic simulations, J. Hydrol., 353, 33-48, 2008.
20. García Vera, M. A. and Martínez-Cob, A.: Revisión de las necesidades hídricas netas de los cultivos de la Cuenca del Ebro, Zaragoza, Confederación Hidrográfica del Ebro, Informe, Trabajo de consultoría y asistencia - Convenio Colaboración CSIC-CHE, 8 vols., 2004.
21. Griffin, M., Montz, B., and Arrigo, J.: Evaluating climate change induced water stress: A case study of the Lower Cape Fear basin, NC, Appl. Geogr., 40, 115-128, 2013.
22. Grouillet, B., Fabre, J., Ruelland, D., and Dezetter, A.: Historical reconstruction and 2050 projections of water demand under anthropogenic and climate changes in two contrasted Mediterranean catchments, J. Hydrol, 522, 684-696, 2015.
23. Hallegatte, S.: Strategies to adapt to an uncertain climate change, Global Environ. Change, 19, 240-247, 2009.
24. Hargreaves, G. and Samani, Z.: Reference crop evapotranspiration from temperature, Appl. Eng. Agric., 1, 96-99, 1985.
25. Hashimoto, T., Stedinger, J., and Loucks, D.: Reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability criteria for water resources system performance evaluation, Water Resour. Res., 10, 14-20, 1982.
26. Heinrichs, T., Lehner, B., and Alcamo, J.: An Integrated Analysis of Change in Water Stress in Europe, Integr. Assess., 3, 15-29, 2012.
27. Iglesias, A., Garrote, L., Diz, A., Schlickenrieder, and Martin-Carrasco, F.: Re-thinking water policy priorities in the Mediterranean region in view of climate change, Environ. Sci. Pol., 14, 744-757, 2011.
28. Juwana, I., Muttil, N., and Perera, B.: Indicator-based water sustainability assessment - A review, Sci. Total Environ., 438, 357-371, 2012.
29. Kiptala, J. K., Mul, M. L., Mohamed, Y. A., and van der Zaag, P.: Modelling stream flow and quantifying blue water using a modified STREAM model for a heterogeneous, highly utilized and data-scarce river basin in Africa, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2287-2303, doi:10.5194/hess-18-2287-2014, 2014.
30. Koutroulis, A., Tsanis, I., Daliakopoulos, I., and Jacob, D.: Impact of climate change on water resources status: A case study for Crete Island, Greece, J. Hydrol, 479, 146-158, 2013.
31. Krol, M., Jaeger, A., Bronstert, A., and Güntner, A.: Integrated modeling of climate, water, soil, agricultural and socio-economic processes: A general introduction of the methodology and some exemplary results from the semi-arid north-east of Brazil, J. Hydrol, 328, 417-431, 2006.
32. Lanini, S., Courtois, N., Giraud, F., Petit, V., and Rinaudo, J.: Socio-hydrosystem modelling for integrated water-resources management - the Hérault catchment case study, southern Francel, Environ. Model. Softw., 19, 1011-1019, 2004.
33. Lecina, S. and Playán, E.: Mejora del regadío de la Comunidad de Regantes V del Canal de Bardenas, in: Actas del XX Congreso Nacional de Riegos y Drenajes (AERYD), Ciudad Real., 99-101, 2002.
34. Lecina, S., Isidoro, D., Playán, E., and Aragües, R.: Irrigation modernization and wáter conservation in Spain: The case of Riegos del Alto Aragón, Agr. Water Manage., 97, 1663-1675, 2010.
35. López-Moreno, J., Zabalza, J., Vicente-Serrano, S., Revuelto, J., Gilaberte, M., Azorin-Molina, C., Morán-Tejeda, E., García-Ruiz, J., and Tague, C.: Impact of climate and land use change on water availability and reservoir management: Scenarios in the Upper Aragón River, Spanish Pyrenees, Sci. Total Environ., 493, 1222-1231, 2014.
36. Ludwig, R., Roson, R., Zografos, C., and Kallis, G.: Towards an inter-disciplinary research agenda on climate change, water and security in Southern Europe and neighboring countries, Environ. Sci. Pol., 14, 794-803, 2011.
37. March, K., Therond, O., and Leenhardt, F.: Water futures: Reviewing water-scenario analyses through an original interpretative framework, Ecol. Econom., 82, 126-137, 2012.
38. Martínez-Cob, A. and Tejero-Juste, M.: A wind-based qualitative calibration of the Hargreaves ET0 estimation equation in semi-arid regions, Agr. Water Manage., 64, 251-264, 2004.
39. MEDDE (Ministère de l'Ecologie du Développement Durable et de l'Energie): Banque Hydro, available at: http://www.hydro.eaufrance.fr/selection.php, last access: October 2010.
40. Milano, M., Ruelland, D., Fernandez, S., Dezetter, A., Fabre, J., and Servat, E.: Facing global changes in the Mediterranean basin: How could the current water stress evolve by the medium-term?, C. R. Geosci., 344, 432-440, 2012.
41. Milano, M., Ruelland, D., Dezetter, A., Fabre, J., Ardoin-Bardin, S., and Servat, E.: Modeling the current and future capacity of water resources to meet water demands in the Ebro basin, J. Hydrol., 500, 114-126, 2013a.
42. Milano, M., Ruelland, D., Fernandez, S., Dezetter, A., Fabre, J., Servat, E., Fritsch, J.-M., Ardoin-Bardin, S., and Thivet, G.: Current state of Mediterranean water resources and future trends under climatic and anthropogenic changes, Hydrol. Sci. J., 58, 498-518, 2013b.
43. Montanari, A., Young, G., Savenije, H., Hughes, D., Wagener, T., Ren, L., Koutsoyiannis, D., Cudennec, C., Toth, E., Grimaldi, S., Blöchl, G., Sivalapan, M., Beven, K., Gupta, H., Hipsey, M., Schaefli, B., Arheimer, B., Boegh, E., Schymanski, S., Baldassarre, G. D., Yu, B., Hubert, P., Huang, Y., Schumann, A., Post, D., Srinivasan, V., Harman, C., Thompson, S., Rogger, M., Viglione, A., McMillan, H., Characklis, G., Pang, Z., and Belyaev, V.: 'Panta Rhei - Evrything Flows': Change in hydrology and society - The IAHS Scientific Decade 2013-2022, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 58, 1256-1275, 2014.
44. Oudin, L., Hervieu, F., Michel, C., Perrin, C., Andréassian, V., Anctil, F., and Loumagne, C.: Which potential evapotranspiration input for a lumped rainfall-runoff model?: Part 2 - Towards a simple and efficient potential evapotranspiration model for rainfall-runoff modelling, J. Hydrol., 303, 290-306, 2005.
45. Perrin, C., Michel, C., and Andreassian, V.: Improvement of a parsimonious model for streamflow simulation, J. Hydrol., 10, 282-290, 2003.
46. Pulido-Velazquez, D., Sahuquillo, A., Andreu, J., and Pulido-Velazquez, M.: An efficient conceptual model to simulate water body-aquifer interaction in Conjunctive Use Management Model, Water Resour. Res., 43, W07407, doi:10.1029/2006WR005064, 2007.
47. Pulido-Velazquez, D., Garrote, L., Andreu, J., Martin-Carrasco, F.-J., and Iglesias, A.: A methodology to diagnose the effect of climate change and to identify adaptive strategies to reduce its impacts in conjunctive-use systems at basin scale, J. Hydrol., 405, 110-122, 2011.
48. Pulido-Velazquez, D., Sahuquillo, D., and Andreu, J.: A conceptual-numerical model to simulate hydraulic head in aquifers that are hydraulically connected to surface water bodies, Hydrol. Process., 26, 1435-1448, 2012.
49. Purkey, D., Joyce, B., Vicuna, S., Hanemann, M., Dale, L., Yates, D., and Dracup, A.: Robust analysis of future climate change impacts on water for agriculture and other sectors: a case study in the Sacramento Valley, Clim. Change, 87, 109-122, 2008.
50. Quintana-Segui, P., Moigne, P. L., Durand, Y., Martin, E., Habets, F., Baillon, M., Canellas, C., Franchisteguy, L., and Morel, S.: Analysis of near-surface atmospheric variables: validation of the SAFRAN analysis over France, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 47, 92-107, 2008.
51. Reynard, E., Bonriposi, M., Graefe, O., Homewood, C., Huss, M., Kauzlaric, M., Liniger, H., Rey, E., Rist, S., Schädler, B., Schneider, F., andWeingartner, R.: Interdisciplinary assessment of complex regional water systems and their future evolution: how socioeconomic drivers can matter more than climatee, WIREs Water, 1, 413-426, 2014.
52. Ruelland, D., Brisset, N., Jourde, H., and Oyarzun, R.: Modeling the impact of climatic variability on the groundwater and surface flows from a mountainous catchment in the Chilean Andes, in: Cold regions hydrology in a changing climate (Proceedings of Symposium H02 held during IUGG 2011 in Melbourne, Australia, July 2011), Vol. 346, 171-179, IAHS Publ., 2011.
53. th FRIEND Int. Conf., Montpellier, France, 7-10 October 2014), Vol. 363, 145-150, IAHS Publ., 2014.
54. Salvador, R., Martínez-Cob, A., Cavero, J., and Playán, E.: Seasonal on-farm irrigation performance in the Ebro basin (Spain): Crops and irrigation systems, Agr. Water Manage., 98, 577-587, 2011.
55. SMBFH (Syndicat Mixte du Bassin du Fleuve Hérault): Gestion quantitative de la ressource. Etat des lieux version 4. SAGE du bassin du fleuve Hérault, available at: www.sage.herault.fr (last access: August 2014), 2005.
56. Sullivan, C. and Meigh, J.: Targeting attention on local vulnerabilities using an integrated index approach: the example of the Climate Vulnerability Index, Water Sci. Technol., 51, 69-78, 2005.
57. Varela-Ortega, C., Blanco-Gutiérrez, I., Swartz, C., and Downing, T.: Balancing groundwater conservation and rural livelihoods under water and climate uncertainties: An integrated hydroeconomic modeling framework, Global Environ. Change, 21, 604-619, 2011.
58. Vicente-Serrano, S. and López-Moreno, J.: Influence of atmospheric circulation at different spatial scales on winter drought variability through a semiarid climatic gradient in North-East Spain, Int J. Climatol., 26, 1427-1453, 2006.
59. Weng, P. and Dörfliger, N.: Projet PACTES - module: contribution des eaux souterraines aux crues et inondations; site de l'Hérault., Tech. Rep. BRGM/RP-51718-FR, BRGM, 2002.