Historical reconstruction and 2050 projections of water demand under anthropogenic and climate changes in two contrasted Mediterranean catchments

Journal of Hydrology

Volumn 522, Issue , 2015, Pages 684-696

  Grouillet, B ^a   Fabre, J ^a   Ruelland, D ^a   Dezetter, A ^b  

^a UNIVERSITÉ DE MONTPELLIER   (France)

^b INSTITUT DE RECHERCHE POUR LE DÉVELOPPEMENT   (France)

Author keywords

Anthropogenic changes; Climate change impacts; River Ebro; River Herault; Water demand

Indexed keywords

CATCHMENTS; CLIMATE MODELS; DYNAMICS; RIVERS; SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT; WATER MANAGEMENT; WATER RESOURCES; WATERSHEDS;

ANTHROPOGENIC CHANGES; CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT; CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORKS; HISTORICAL RECONSTRUCTION; MEDITERRANEAN CATCHMENT; RIVER BASIN MANAGEMENT; WATER DEMAND; WATER DEMAND AND SUPPLY;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

ANTHROPOGENIC EFFECT; BASIN MANAGEMENT; CLIMATE CHANGE; CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK; ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE; HETEROGENEITY; HUMAN ACTIVITY; PREDICTION; RECONSTRUCTION; RIVER BASIN; SPATIOTEMPORAL ANALYSIS; WATER DEMAND;

EBRO BASIN; FRANCE; MEDITERRANEAN REGION; SPAIN;

EID: 84921960305     PISSN: 00221694     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.01.029     Document Type: Article

References (56)

1. Alcamo J., Döll P., Henrichs T., Kaspar F., Lehner B., Rosch T., Siebert S. Global estimates of water withdrawals and availability under current and future "business-as-usual" conditions. Hydrol. Sci. J. 2003, 48:339-348.
2. Allen, R.G., Pereira, L.S., Raes, D., Smith, M., 1998. Crop Evapotranspiration-Guidelines for Computing Crop Water Requirements. Irrigation and Drain, Paper No. 56 FAO, Rome, Italy, 300p.
3. Arnell N.W. Climate change and global water resources. Global Environ. Change 1999, 9:831-849.
4. Arnell N.W. Climate change and global water resources: SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Global Environ. Change 2004, 14:31-52.
5. Arnell N.W., Livermore M.J.L., Kovats S., Levy P.E., Nicholls R., Parry M.L., Gaffin S.R. Climate and socio-economic scenarios for global-scale climate change impacts assessments: characterising the SRES storylines. Global Environ. Change 2004, 14:3-20.
6. Beck L., Bernauer T. How will combined changes in water demand and climate affect water availability in the Zambezi river basin?. Global Environ. Change 2011, 21:1061-1072.
7. Boithias L., Acuña V., Vergoñós L., Ziv G., Marcé R., Sabater S. Assessment of the water supply:demand ratios in a Mediterranean basin under different global change scenarios and mitigation alternatives. Sci. Total Environ. 2014, 470-471:567-577.
8. Breyer B., Chang H., Parandvash G.H. Land-use, temperature, and single-family residential water use patterns in Portland, Oregon and Phoenix, Arizona. Appl. Geography 2012, 35:142-151.
9. Bunce J.A. Carbon dioxide effects on stomatal responses to the environment and water use by crops under field conditions. Oecologia 2004, 140:1-10.
10. Burak S., Dogan E., Gazioglu C. Impact of urbanization and tourism on coastal environment. Ocean Coast. Manage. 2004, 47:515-527.
11. Charlton M.B., Arnell N.W. Adapting to climate change impacts on water resources in England - an assessment of draft water resources management plans. Global Environ. Change 2011, 21:238-248.
12. Confederación Hidrográfica del Ebro, CHE, 2011. Propuesta de Proyecto de Plan Hidrológico de la cuenca del Ebro. Memoria versión 3.7. 281p.
13. Collet L., Ruelland D., Borrell-Estupina V., Dezetter A., Servat E. Integrated modelling to assess long-term water supply capacity on a meso-scale Mediterranean catchment. Sci. Total Environ. 2013, 461-462:528-540.
14. Collet L., Ruelland D., Borrell-Estupina V., Servat E. Assessing the long-term impact of climatic variability and human activities on the water resources of a meso-scale Mediterranean catchment. Hydrol. Sci. J. 2014, 59:1457-1469.
15. Dawadi S., Ahmad S. Evaluating the impact of demand-side management on water resources under changing climatic conditions and increasing population. J. Environ. Manage. 2013, 114:261-275.
16. De Graaf I.E.M., van Beek L.P.H., Wada Y., Bierkens M.F.P. Dynamic attribution of global water demand to surface water and groundwater resources: effects of abstractions and return flows on river discharges. Adv. Water Resour. 2004, 64:21-33.
17. Deser C., Phillips A., Bourdette A., Tend H. Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability. Clim. Dyn. 2012, 38:527-546.
18. Dezetter, A., Fabre, J., Ruelland, D., Servat, E., 2014. Selecting an optimal climatic dataset for integrated modelling of the Ebro hydrosystem. In: Hydrology in a changing world: environmental and human dimensions. Proc. 7th FRIEND-Water Int. Conf., Montpellier, France, 7-10 Oct. 2014. IAHS Publ., 363, 355-360.
19. Döll P. Impact of climate change and variability on irrigation requirements: a global perspective. Climatic Change 2002, 54:269-293.
20. EC EC (European Commission) European Soil Database (distribution version V2.0) 2004, Joint Research Centre, European Commission Office of Official Publications, Luxembourg.
21. Fabre J., Ruelland R., Dezetter A., Grouillet B. Simulating changes in the balance between water demand and availability and assessing their main drivers over the past 40years in two contrasted Mediterranean catchments. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. 2014, 11:12315-12364.
22. Fischer G., Tubiello F.N., van Velthuizen H., Wiberg D.A. Climate change impacts on irrigation water requirements: effects of mitigation, 1990-2080. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2007, 74:1083-1107.
23. Gober P. Desert urbanization and the challenges of water sustainability. Curr. Opin. Environ. Sustainability 2010, 2:144-150.
24. Green, S., 2008. Implication of time step on crop irrigation requirements. Hawke's Bay Regional Council, Envirolink Project No. HBRC46. http://envirolink.govt.nz/PageFiles/383/430-HBRC46.pdf.
25. Griffin M.T., Montz B.E., Arrigo J.S. Evaluating climate change induced water stress: a case study of the lower cape fear basin. Appl. Geography 2013, 40:115-128.
26. Grouillet, B., Fabre, J., Ruelland, D., Collet, L., Boyer, J.-F. 2004. Assessing past and future water demands under climate change and anthropogenic pressures on two Mediterranean basins. In: Hydrology in a changing world: environmental and human dimensions (Proc. 7th FRIEND-Water Int. Conf., Montpellier, France, 7-10 Oct. 2014). IAHS Publ., 363, 185-190.
27. Hargreaves G.H., Samani Z.A. Reference crop evapotranspiration from temperature. Appl. Eng. Agric. 1985, 1:96-99.
28. Hejazi M., Edmonds J., Clarke L., Kyle P., Davies E., Chaturvedi V., Wise M., Patel P., Eom J., Calvin K., Moss R., Kim S. Long-term global water projections using six socioeconomic scenarios in an integrated assessment modeling framework. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2014, 81:205-226.
29. Hoekstra A.Y., Chapagain A.K. The water footprints of Morocco and the Netherlands: global water use as a result of domestic consumption of agricultural commodities. Ecol. Econ. 2007, 64:143-151.
30. IPCC Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2013, 1535. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex, P.M. Midgley (Eds.).
31. Koch H., Vögele S. Dynamic modelling of water demand, water availability and adaptation strategies for power plants to global change. Ecol. Econ. 2009, 68:2031-2039.
32. Lévite H., Sally H., Cour J. Testing water demand management scenarios in a water-stressed basin in South Africa: application of the WEAP model. Phys. Chem. Earth 2003, 28:779-786.
33. López-Moreno J.I., Vicente-Serrano S.M., Moran-Tejeda E., Zabalza J., Lorenzo-Lacruz J., García-Ruiz J.M. Impact of climate evolution and land use changes on water yield in the Ebro basin. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 2011, 15:311-322.
34. Martínez-Cob A., Tejero-Juste M. A wind-based qualitative calibration of the Hargreaves ET0 estimation equation in semiarid regions. Agric. Water Manage. 2004, 64:251-264.
35. Milano M., Ruelland D., Fernandez S., Dezetter A., Fabre J., Servat E., Fritsch J.M., Ardoin-Bardin S., Thivet G. Current state of Mediterranean water resources and future trends under climatic and anthropogenic changes. Hydrol. Sci. J. 2013, 58:498-518.
36. Milano M., Ruelland D., Dezetter A., Fabre J., Ardoin-Bardin S., Servat E. Modeling the current and future capacity of water resources to meet water demands in the Ebro basin. J. Hydrol. 2013, 500:114-126.
37. Minacapilli M., Iovino M., D'Urso G. A distributed agro-hydrological model for irrigation water demand assessment. Agric. Water Manage. 2008, 95:123-132.
38. Mullen J.D., Yu Y., Hoogenboom G. Estimating the demand for irrigation water in a humid climate: a case study from the southeastern United States. Agric. Water Manage. 2009, 96:1421-1428.
39. Plan Bleu, 2005. L'Eau. In: Méditerranée, les perspectives du Plan Bleu sur l'Environnement et le Développement, Ed. de l'Aube, 71-107.
40. Poussin J.C., Pouget J.C., D'Hont R.L. ZonAgri: a modeling environment to explore agricultural activities and water demands on a regional scale. Land Use Policy 2010, 27:600-611.
41. Quintana-Segui P., Le Moigne P., Durand Y., Martin E., Habets F., Baillon M. Analysis of near-surface atmospheric variables: validation of the SAFRAN analysis over France. J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. 2008, 47:92-107.
42. Reynard E., Bonriposi M., Graefe O., Homewood C., Huss M., Kauzlaric M., Liniger H., Rey E., Rist S., Schädler B., Schneider F., Weingartner R. Interdisciplinary assessment of complex regional water systems and their future evolution: how socioeconomic drivers can matter more than climate: interdisciplinary assessment of complex regional water systems and their future evolution. WIREs Water 2014, 413-426.
43. Riahi K., Gruebler A., Nakicenovic N. Scenarios of long-term socio-economic and environmental development under climate stabilization. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2007, 74:887-935.
44. Rinaudo, J.-D., 2011. Urbanisme, habitat et demande en eau potable - Scénarios 2030 pour le Pays Cœur d'Hérault. BRGM/RP-60358-FR.
45. Rosenzweig C., Strzepek K.M., Major D.C., Iglesias A., Yates D., Mccluskey A., Hillel D. Water resources for agriculture in a changing climate: international case studies. Global Environ. Change 2004, 14:345-360.
46. Ruelland D., Ardoin-Bardin S., Collet L., Roucou P. Simulating future trends in hydrological regime of a large Sudano-Sahelian catchment under climate change. J. Hydrol. 2012, 424-425:207-216.
47. Ruijs A., Zimmermann A., Van den Berg M. Demand and distributional effects of water pricing policies. Ecol. Econ. 2008, 66:506-516.
48. Salvador R., Martínez-Cob A., Cavero J., Playán E. Seasonal on-farm irrigation performance in the Ebro basin (Spain): Crops and irrigation systems. Agric. Water Manage. 2011, 98:577-587.
49. Schaldach R., Koch J., Aus der Beek T., Kynast E., Flörke M. Current and future irrigation water requirements in pan-Europe: an integrated analysis of socio-economic and climate scenarios. Global Planet. Change 2012, 94-95:33-45.
50. SMBFH, 2005. Gestion quantitative de la ressource. Etat des lieux version 4. SAGE du bassin du fleuve Hérault.
51. Syrbe R.U., Walz U. Spatial indicators for the assessment of ecosystem services: providing, benefiting and connecting areas and landscape metrics. Ecol. Ind. 2012, 21:80-88.
52. Taub D. Effects of rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide on plants. Nat. Educ. Knowl. 2010, 3:21.
53. Thomas A. Agricultural irrigation demand under present and future climate scenarios in China. Global Planet. Change 2008, 60:306-326.
54. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2013. World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, Highlights and Advance Tables. Working Paper No. ESA/P/WP. 228.
55. Vörösmarty C.J. Global water resources: vulnerability from climate change and population growth. Science 2000, 289:284-288.
56. Wu Y., Chen J. Estimating irrigation water demand using an improved method and optimizing reservoir operation for water supply and hydropower generation: a case study of the Xinfengjiang reservoir in southern China. Agric. Water Manage. 2013, 116:110-121.