Are wildcard events on infrastructure systems opportunities for transformational change?

Futures

Volumn 67, Issue , 2015, Pages 1-10

  Walsh, C L ^a   Glendinning, S ^a   Castan Broto V ^b   Dewberry, E ^c   Powell, M ^a  

^a NEWCASTLE UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON   (United Kingdom)

^c OPEN UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Infrastructure; Sustainable; Transformation; Wild cards

Indexed keywords

DESIGN; INFRASTRUCTURE; METHODOLOGY; SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT;

EID: 84923633913     PISSN: 00163287     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2015.01.005     Document Type: Article

References (57)

1. Ansoff I. Strategic response to turbulent environments 1982, Working paper no. 82-35, European Institute for Advanced Studies in Management, Brussels.
2. Association of British Insurers Summer floods 2007: Learning the lessons 2007.
3. Association of British Insurers The Summer Floods 2007: One year on and beyond 2008.
4. Barber M. Wildcards - Signals from a future near you. Journal of Futures Studies 2006, 11(1):75-94.
5. Beale C.J. Recent railway industry accidents: Learning points for the process industries. Process Safety and Environmental Protection 2002, 80(1):25-32.
6. Bishop P., Hines A., Collins T. The current state of scenario development: An overview of techniques. Foresight 2007, 9(1):5-25.
7. Bohl M.T., Kaufmann P., Stephan P.M. From hero to zero: Evidence of performance reversal and speculative bubbles in German renewable energy stocks. Energy Economics 2013, 37:40-51.
8. Boin A., McConnell A. Preparing for critical infrastructure breakdowns: The limits of crisis management and the need for resilience. Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management 2007, 15(1):50-59.
9. Bolic T., Sivcev Z. Eruption of Eyjafjallajokull in Iceland. Experience of European air traffic management. Transportation Research Record 2011, 2214:136-143.
10. Cabinet Office The Pitt review: Learning lessons from the 2007 floods 2008.
11. Castán Broto V., Glendinning S., Dewberry E., Walsh C.L., Powell M. What can we learn about transitions for sustainability from infrastructure shocks?. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 2014, 84:186-196.
12. Crossland B. The King's Cross underground fire and the setting up of the investigation. Fire Safety Journal 1992, 18(1):3-11.
13. Communities and Local Government Facing the challenge. The Chief Fire and Rescue Adviser's review of the operational response by the Fire and Rescue Service to the widespread flooding in England during 2007 2008.
14. Cornish E. The wild cards in our future. The Futurist 2003, 37:18-22.
15. Council for Science and Technology A National Infrastructure for the 21st Century 2009, Council for Science and Technology.
16. Dawson R.J. Re-engineering cities: A framework for adaptation to global change. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, Special issue on Visions of the Future 2007, 365(1861):3085-3098.
17. Dikj M., Orsat R., Kemp R. The emergence of an electric mobility trajectory. Energy Policy 2013, 52:135-145.
18. Egan M.J. Anticipating future vulnerability: Defining characteristics of increasingly critical infrastructure-like systems. Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management 2007, 15(1):4-17.
19. Environment Agency Review of 2007 summer floods. Environment Agency Report 2007.
20. Fujina S. Energy challenge after historic earthquake and tsunami in Japan 2011, http://www.dajf.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/Presentation-by-Fujino.pdfAccessed 21.05.13.
21. Geels F.W. Technological transitions as evolutionary recon-figuration processes: A multi-level perspective and a case-study. Research Policy 2002, 31(8/9):1257-1274.
22. Geels F.W. The dynamics of transitions in socio-technical systems: A multi-level analysis of the transition pathway from horse-drawn carriages to automobiles (1860-1930). Technology Analysis & Strategic Management 2005, 17(4):445-476.
23. Geels F.W., Schot J. Typology of sociotechnical transition pathways. Research Policy 2007, 36:399-417.
24. Geels, F. W., & Schot, J. W. (2010). The dynamics of transitions: A socio-technical perspective. In J. Grin, J. Rotmans, & J. Schot (Ed.) in collaboration with F. W. Geels & D. Loorbach, Transitions to sustainable development: New directions in the study of long term transformative change (pp. 9-87). Routledge.
25. Gibb R. The privatization of British Rail. Applied Geography 1996, 16(1):35-51.
26. Granovetter M. Economic action and social structure: The problem of embeddedness. American Journal of Sociology 1985, 91(3):481-510.
27. Great Britain Clean Air Act 1993: Elizabeth II 1993, The Stationery Office, London.
28. Great Britain The Climate Change Act: Elizabeth II 2008, The Stationery Office, London.
29. Great Britain The Flood and Water Management Act: Elizabeth II 2010, The Stationery Office, London.
30. Guiver J. Travel adjustments after road closure: Workington January 2011, Universities' Transport Study Group, Open University, Milton Keynes.
31. Hiltunen E. Was it a wild card or just our blindness to gradual change?. Journal of Future Studies 2006, 11(2):61-74.
32. Inayatullah S. Causal layered analysis: Theory, historical context, and case studies. The causal layered analysis (CLA) reader: Theory and case studies of an integrative and transformative methodology 2004, 8-49. Tamkang University Press, Taipei, Taiwan. S. Inayatullah (Ed.).
33. Infrastructure UK National infrastructure plan 2011, HM Treasury, London, UK.
34. Johansson J., Hassel H. An approach for modelling interdependent infrastructures in the context of vulnerability analysis. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 2010, 95:1335-1344.
35. Levy M.A., Chen R.S., Muñiz M., Adamo S., Yetman G., Lukang M.E., et al. Multi-hazard risks and vulnerable populations in the Caribbean and Gulf of 28 Mexico Region: Implications of spatial population and land cover dynamics. The Vulnerability of America's Gulf Coast and the Caribbean Basin 2010, (Commissioned papers briefing book, August 25-26, 2010), New Orleans, LA.
36. Linstone H.A., Turoff M. Introduction. The Delphi method: Techniques and applications 1975, 3-12. Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, Reading. H.A. Linstone, M. Turoff (Eds.).
37. Mendonça D., Wallace W.A. Impacts of the 2001 World Trade Center attack on New York City critical infrastructures. Journal of Infrastructure Systems 2006, 12(4):260-270.
38. Mendonça S., Cunha M.P., Kaivo-oja J., Ruff F. Wild cards, weak signal and organisational improvisation. Futures 2004, 36:201-218.
39. Mietzner D., Reger G. Advantages and disadvantages of scenario approaches for strategic foresight. International Journal of Technology Intelligence and Planning 2005, 1(2):220-239.
40. National Policy Improvement Agency Guidance on command and control 2009, Produced on behalf of the Association of Chief Police Officers by the National Policy Improvement Agency.
41. NPR Staff and Wires Millions of stricken Japanese lack water, food, heat 2011, http://www.npr.org/2011/03/18/134527591/millions-of-stricken-japanese-lack-water-food-heat Accessed online 12.04.13.
42. O'Rourke T.D. Critical infrastructure, interdependencies, and resilience. The Bridge 2007, 37(1):22-29.
43. Peterson M.W. Using contextual planning to transform institutions. ASHE reader on planning and institutional research 1999, Pearson Custom Publishing, Needham Heights. M. Peterson (Ed.).
44. Royal Academy of Engineering Engineering the future: Infrastructure, engineering and climate change adaptation 2011, Royal Academy of Engineering, London, UK.
45. Saritas O., Nugroho Y. Mapping issues and envisaging futures: An evolutionary scenario approach. Technological Forecasting & Social Change 2012, 79:509-529.
46. Saritas O., Smith J. The big picture - Trends, drivers, wild cards and weak signals. Futures 2011, 43:292-312.
47. Severn Trent Water The impact of the July floods on the water infrastructure and customer service 2007, http://www.stwater.co.uk/upload/pdf/The_Final_Gloucester_2007_Report.pdf Accessed 15.09.12.
48. Steinmueller K. Wildcards - Preparing for the unpredictable 2011, The Foresight Company, Berlin, Germany, http://community.iknowfutures.eu/pg/pages/view/3528/.
49. Thames Water Victorian mains replacement: Why we are replacing pipes 2013, Thames Water, http://www.thameswater.co.uk/about-us/2689.htm Accessed 17.05.13.
50. Tolone W.J. Interactive visualizations for critical infrastructure analysis. International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection 2009, 2:124-134.
51. U.S.-Canada Power System Outage Task Force Final report on the implementation of the task force recommendations 2006, Natural Resources Canada and the U.S. Department of Energy.
52. Voros J. A generic foresight process framework. Foresight 2003, 5(3):10-21.
53. Walsh C.L., Glendinning S., Dawson R.J., England K., Martin M., Watkins C.L., et al. Collaborative platform to facilitate engineering decision-making. Engineering Sustainability 2013, 166(ES2):98-107.
54. Wharton R.K. Studies relating to ignition of the fire at King's Cross Underground Station. Fire Safety Journal 1992, 18(1):35-47.
55. Wolmar C. On the wrong line, how ideology and incompetence wrecked Britain's railways 2005, Aurum Press Limited, London.
56. Yeh H., Sato S., Tajima Y. The 11 March 2011 East Japan earthquake and tsunami: Tsunami effects on coastal infrastructure and buildings. Pure and Applied Geophysics 2013, 170(6-8):1019-1031.
57. Zhang P., Peeta S. A generalized modelling framework to analyse interdependencies among infrastructure systems. Transportation Research Part B 2011, 45:553-579.