Uncertainty analysis of a spatially explicit annual water-balance model: Case study of the Cape Fear basin, North Carolina

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences

Volumn 19, Issue 2, 2015, Pages 839-853

  Hamel, P ^a   Guswa, A J ^b  

^a Stanford University   (United States)

^b SMITH COLLEGE   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS; ECOLOGY; ECOSYSTEMS; ERRORS; FORECASTING; LAND USE; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

ANNUAL PRECIPITATION; ANNUAL WATER BALANCE; ANNUAL WATER YIELDS; COMPARISON OF MODELS; DISTRIBUTION OF WATER; MODEL STRUCTURE UNCERTAINTIES; SPATIALLY EXPLICIT; UNCERTAINTY CHARACTERIZATION;

CLIMATE MODELS;

ANNUAL VARIATION; ECOHYDROLOGY; ECOSYSTEM SERVICE; LAND USE CHANGE; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS; WATER BUDGET;

ATLANTIC OCEAN; CAPE BASIN; NORTH CAROLINA; UNITED STATES;

EID: 84922829169     PISSN: 10275606     EISSN: 16077938     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5194/hess-19-839-2015     Document Type: Article

References (42)

1. Allen, R. G., Pereira, L. S., Raes, D., and Smith, M.: Crop evapotranspiration - Guidelines for computing crop water requirements, FAO Irrigation and drainage paper no. 56, Rome, Italy, 1998.
2. Bagstad, K. J., Semmens, D. J., Waage, S., and Winthrop, R.: A comparative assessment of decision-support tools for ecosystem services quantification and valuation, Ecosystem Services, 5, 27- 39, 2013.
3. Bai, Y., Zheng, H., Ouyang, Z., Zhuang, C., and Jiang, B.: Modeling hydrological ecosystem services and tradeoffs: a case study in Baiyangdian watershed, China, Environ. Earth Sci., 70, 709-718, 2012.
4. Boithias, L., Acuña, V., Vergoñós, L., Ziv, G., Marcé, R., and Sabater, S.: Assessment of the water supply: demand ratios in a Mediterranean basin under different global change scenarios and mitigation alternatives, Sci. Total Environ 470-471, 567- 77, 2014.
5. Budyko, M.: The Heat Balance of the Earth's Surface, US Department of Commer., Washington, D.C., USA, 259 pp., 1961.
6. Choudhury, B. J.: Evaluation of an empirical equation for annual evaporation using field observations and results from a biophysical model, J. Hydrol., 216, 99-110, 1999.
7. Council on Environmental Quality: Principles and Requirements for Federal Investments in Water Resources, available at: http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/final-principles- and-requirements-march-2013.pdf (last access: July 2014), 2013.
8. Donohue, R. J., Roderick, M. L., and McVicar, T. R.: Roots, storms and soil pores?, Incorporating key ecohydrological processes into Budyko's hydrological model, J. Hydrology, 436-437, 35- 50, 2012.
9. FAO: Global agro-ecological zones, FAO Land and Water Digital Media Series No. 11, Rome, Italy, available at: http://www.fao.org/geonetwork/srv/en/metadata.show?id= 5017&currTab=summary (last access: July 2014), 2001.
10. Fu, B. P.: On the calculation of the evaporation from land surface, Sci. Atmos. Sin., 5, 23-31, 1981 (in Chinese).
11. Gentine, P., Odorico, P. D., Lintner, B. R., Sivandran, G., and Salvucci, G.: Interdependence of climate, soil, and vegetation as constrained by the Budyko curve, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L19404, doi:10.1029/2012GL053492, 2012.
12. Gilliland, B. K.: Technical Report 04-013, Idaho Water Resources Research Institute, University of Idaho, 14 pp., 2003.
13. Guswa, A., Brauman, K. A., Brown, C., Hamel, P., Keeler, B. L., and Sayre, S. S.: Ecosystem Services: Challenges and Opportunities for Hydrologic Modeling to Support Decision Making, Water Resour. Res., 50, 4535-4544, 2014.
14. Hrachowitz, M., Savenije, H. H. G., Blöschl, G., McDonnell, J. J., Sivapalan, M., Pomeroy, J. W., Arheimer, B., Blume, T., Clark, M. P., Ehret, U., Fenicia, F., Freer, J. E., Gelfan, A., Gupta, H. V., Hughes, D. A., Hut, R.W., Montanari, A., Pande, S., Tetzlaff, D., Troch, P. A., Uhlenbrook, S.,Wagener, T.,Winsemius, H. C., Woods, R. A., Zehe, E., and Cudennec, C.: A decade of Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) - a review, Hydrol. Sci. J., 58, 1198-1255, 2013.
15. Liang, L. and Liu, Q.: Streamflow sensitivity analysis to climate change for a large water-limited basin, Hydrol. Process., 28, 1767-1774, 2014.
16. Liu, J., Li, S., Ouyang, Z., Tam, C., and Chen, X.: Ecological and socioeconomic effects of China's policies for ecosystem services, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 105, 9477-9482, 2008.
17. Martin-Ortega, J., Ojea, E., and Roux, C.: Payments for Water Ecosystem Services in Latin America: A literature review and conceptual model, Ecosystem Services, 6, 122-132, 2013.
18. McGlynn, B. L., Blöschl, G., Borga, M., Bormann, H., Hurkmans, R., Komma, J., Nandagiri, L., Uijlenhoet, R., and Wagener, T.: A data acquisition framework for prediction of runoff in ungauged basins, in: Predictions in Ungauged Basins, IAHS, 29- 52, doi:10.1017/CBO9781139235761.006, 2012.
19. McMahon, T. A., Peel, M. C., Lowe, L., Srikanthan, R., and McVicar, T. R.: Estimating actual, potential, reference crop and pan evaporation using standard meteorological data: a pragmatic synthesis, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1331-1363, doi:10.5194/hess-17-1331-2013, 2013.
20. Montanari, A., Young, G., Savenjie, H. H. G., Hughes, D., Wagener, T., Ren, L. L., Koutsoyiannis, D., Cudennec, C., Toth, E., Grimaldi, S., Blöschl, G., Sivapalan, M., Beven, K., Gupta, H., Hipsey, M., Schaefli, B., Arheimer, B., Boegh, E., Schymanski, S. J., Di Baldassarre, G., Yu, B., Hubert, P., Huang, Y., Schumann, A., Post, D., Srinivasan, V., Harman, C., Thompson, S., Rogger, M., Viglione, A., McMillan, H., Characklis, G., Pang, Z., and Beylaev, V.: "Panta Rhei - Everything Flows": Change in hydrology and society - The IAHS Scientific Decade 2013- 2022, Hydrol. Sci. J., 58, 1256-1275, 2013.
21. Mu, Q., Zhao, M., and Running, S. W.: Brief Introduction to MODIS Evapotranspiration Data Set (MOD16), available at: ftp://ftp.ntsg.umt.edu/pub/MODIS/NTSG-Products/MOD16/ MOD16A3.105-MERRAGMAO/Geotiff (last access: July 2014), 2012.
22. NASS: National Agricultural Statistics Service - Cropland data layers 2012, available at: http://www.nass.usda.gov/research/ Cropland/SARS1a.htm (last access: July 2014), 2013.
23. NC Department of Environment and Natural Resources: Reported daily water withdrawals, available at: http://www.ncwater.org/Water-Withdrawals/ResultsTabJS.php?wsrc=gwandfip=1andtab=dataandbyRegionType=basinandbasinid=2, last access: July 2014.
24. NCSU: NC Climate Office, available at: www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/, last access: July 2014.
25. Nelson, E., Sander, H., Hawthorne, P., Conte, M., Ennaanay, D., Wolny, S., Manson, S., and Polasky, S.: Projecting Global Land- Use Change and Its Effect on Ecosystem Service Provision and Biodiversity with Simple Models, PLoS ONE, 5, e14327, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0014327, 2010.
26. Sánchez-Canales, M., López Benito, A., Passuello, A., Terrado, M., Ziv, G., Acuña, V., Schuhmacher, M., and Elorza, F. J.: Sensitivity analysis of ecosystem service valuation in a Mediterranean watershed, Sci. Total Environ., 440, 140-153, 2012.
27. SERCC: Number of days of precipitation Equal to or above 0.01 inches in selected cities in the Southeast, The Southeast Regional Climate Center, available at: https://www.sercc.com/climateinfo/ historical/meanprecip.html, last access: July 2014.
28. Sharp, R., Tallis, H. T., Ricketts, T., Guerry, A. D., Wood, S. A., Nelson, E., Ennaanay, D., Wolny, S., Olwero, N., Vigerstol, K., Pennington, D., Mendoza, G., Aukema, J., Foster, J., Forrest, J., Cameron, D., Arkema, K., Lonsdorf, E., Kennedy, C., Verutes, G., Kim, C. K., Guannel, G., Papenfus, M., Toft, J., Marsik, M., Bernhardt, J., Griffin, R., Glowinski, K., Chaumont, N., Perelman, A., Lacayo, M., Mandle, L., Hamel, P., and Chaplin-Kramer, R.: InVEST 3.0 User's Guide, available at: http://ncp-dev.stanford.edu/~dataportal/invest-releases/ documentation/current-release/, last access: June 2014.
29. Sivapalan, M., Konar, M., Srinivasan, V., Chhatre, A., Wutich, A., Scott, C. A., and Wescoat, J. L.: Socio-hydrology: Use-inspired water sustainability science for the Anthropocene, Earth's Future, 2, 225-230, 2014.
30. Su, C. and Fu, B.: Evolution of ecosystem services in the Chinese Loess Plateau under climatic and land use changes, Global Planet. Change, 101, 119-128, 2013.
31. Terrado, M., Acuña, V., Ennaanay, D., Tallis, H., and Sabater, S.: Impact of climate extremes on hydrological ecosystem services in a heavily humanized Mediterranean basin, Ecol. Indicators, 37, 199-209, 2014.
32. Thompson, S. E., Harman, C. J., Troch, P. A., Brooks, P. D., and Sivapalan, M.: Spatial scale dependence of ecohydrologically mediated water balance partitioning: A synthesis framework for catchment ecohydrology, Water Resour. Res., 47, W00J03, doi:10.1029/2010WR009998 , 2011.
33. Troch, P. A., Carrillo, G., Sivapalan, M., Wagener, T., and Sawicz, K.: Climate-vegetation-soil interactions and long-term hydrologic partitioning: signatures of catchment co-evolution, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2209-2217, doi:10.5194/hess-17-2209- 2013, 2013.
34. USGS: Digital Elevation Model, The National Map, available at: http://nationalmap.gov/viewer.html (last access: July 2014), 2013a.
35. USGS: STATSGO and SSURGO datasets, available at: http://water.usgs.gov/GIS/metadata/usgswrd/XML/ussoils.xml (last access: July 2014), 2013b.
36. USGS: USGS Real time water data for North Carolina, available at: http://nc.water.usgs.gov/realtime/real-time-cape-fear.html, last access: July 2014.
37. Wang, D. and Tang, Y.: A one-parameter Budyko model for water balance captures emergent behavior in darwinian hydrologic models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 4569-4577, doi:10.1002/2014GL060509, 2014.
38. Xu, X., Liu, W., Scanlon, B. R., Zhang, L., and Pan, M.: Local and global factors controlling water-energy balances within the Budyko framework, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 6123-6129, 2013.
39. Yang, D., Sun, F., Liu, Z., Cong, Z., Ni, G., and Lei, Z.: Analyzing spatial and temporal variability of annual water-energy balance in nonhumid regions of China using the Budyko hypothesis, Water Resour. Res., 43, W04426, doi:10.1029/2006WR005224, 2007.
40. Zhang, L., Dawes, W. R., and Walker, G. R.: Response of mean annual evapotranspiration to vegetation changes at catchment scale, Water Resour. Res., 37, 701-708, 2001.
41. Zhang, L., Hickel, K., Dawes, W. R., Chiew, F. H. S., Western, A. W., and Briggs, P. R.: A rational function approach for estimating mean annual evapotranspiration, Water Resour. Res., 40, W02502, doi:10.1029/2003WR002710, 2004.
42. Zhou, X., Zhang, Y.,Wang, Y., Zhang, H., Vaze, J., Zhang, L., Yang, Y., and Zhou, Y.: Benchmarking global land surface models against the observed mean annual runoff from 150 large basins, J. Hydrol., 470-471, 269-279, 2012.