Determining the probability of cyanobacterial blooms: The application of Bayesian networks in multiple lake systems

Ecological Applications

Volumn 25, Issue 1, 2015, Pages 186-199

  Rigosi, Anna ^a   Hanson, Paul ^b   Hamilton, David P ^c   Hipsey, Matthew ^d   Rusak, James A ^e   Bois, Julie ^a   Sparber, Karin ^f   Chorus, Ingrid ^g   Watkinson, Andrew J ^h   Qin, Boqiang ⁱ   Kim, Bomchul ^j   Brookes, Justin D ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF ADELAIDE   (Australia)

^b UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN MADISON   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF WAIKATO   (New Zealand)

^d UNIVERSITY OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA   (Australia)

^e ONTARIO MINISTRY OF THE ENVIRONMENT   (Canada)

^f Faculty of Science and Technology   (Italy)

^g UMWELTBUNDESAMT   (Germany)

^h Seqwater   (Australia)

ⁱ INSTITUTE OF GEOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS   (China)

^j Kangwon National University   (South Korea)

more..

Author keywords

Bayesian network; Climate change; Cyanobacterial blooms; Multiple systems; Nutrients; Risk assessment; Uncertainty

Indexed keywords

ABUNDANCE; BAYESIAN ANALYSIS; CONCENTRATION (COMPOSITION); CYANOBACTERIUM; ENVIRONMENTAL FACTOR; GROWTH RATE; LAKE ECOSYSTEM; NUTRIENT CYCLING; PROBABILITY; RANGE SIZE; WATER TEMPERATURE;

CYANOBACTERIA;

BAYES THEOREM; CYANOBACTERIA; ECOSYSTEM; HARMFUL ALGAL BLOOM; LAKES; MODELS, STATISTICAL; MODELS, THEORETICAL; PHYSIOLOGY;

BAYES THEOREM; CYANOBACTERIA; ECOSYSTEM; HARMFUL ALGAL BLOOM; LAKES; MODELS, STATISTICAL; MODELS, THEORETICAL;

EID: 84922018894     PISSN: None     EISSN: 19395582     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1890/13-1677.1     Document Type: Article

References (72)

1. Anderson, D. M., P. M. Gilbert, and J. M. Burkholder. 2002. Harmful algal blooms and eutrophication: nutrient sources, composition, and consequences. Estuaries 25:704-726.
2. Anneville, O., S. Gammeter, and D. Straile. 2005. Phosphorus decrease and climate variability: mediators of synchrony in phytoplankton changes among European peri-alpine lakes. Freshwater Biology 50:1731-1746.
3. Arhonditsis, G. B., S. S. Qian, C. A. Stow, E. C. Lamon, and K. H. Reckhow. 2007. Eutrophication risk assessment using Bayesian calibration of process-based models: application to a mesotrophic lake. Ecological Modelling 208:215-229.
4. Arhonditsis, G. B., C. A. Stow, L. J. Steinberg, M. A. Kenney, R. C. Lathrop, S. J. McBride, and K. H. Reckhow. 2006. Exploring ecological patterns with structural equation modelling and Bayesian analysis. Ecological Modelling 192:385-409.
5. Blenckner, T., et al. 2007. Large-scale climatic signatures in lakes across Europe: A meta-analysis. Global Change Biology 13:1314-1326.
6. Borsuk, M. E., C. A. Stow, and K. H. Reckhow. 2004. A Bayesian network of eutrophication models for synthesis, prediction, and uncertainty analysis. Ecological Modelling 173:219-239.
7. Bouterfas, R., M. Belkoura, and A. Dauta. 2002. Light and temperature effects on the growth rate of three freshwater algae isolated from a eutrophic lake. Hydrobiologia 489:207-217.
8. Briand, J., C. Leboulanger, J. Humbert, C. Bernard, and P. Dufour. 2004. Cylindropspermopsis Raciborskii (Cyanobacteria) invasion at mid-latitudes: selection, wide physiological tolerance or global warming? Journal of Phycology 40:231-238.
9. Bromley, J., N. A. Jackson, O. J. Clymer, A. M. Giacomello, and F. V. Jensen. 2005. The use of Hugint to develop Bayesian networks as an aid to integrated water resource planning. Environmental Modelling and Software 20:231-242.
10. Brookes, J. D., and C. C. Carey. 2011. Resilience to blooms. Science 334:46-47.
11. Carey, C. C., B. W. Ibelings, E. P. Hoffmann, D. P. Hamilton, and J. D. Brookes. 2012. Eco-physiological adaptations that favour freshwater cyanobacteria in a changing climate. Water Research 46:1394-1407.
12. Carpenter, S. R., E. H. Stanley, and M. J. Vander Zanden. 2011. State of the world's freshwater ecosystems: physical, chemical and biological changes. Annual Review of Environment and Resources 36:75-99.
13. Carvalho, L., and A. Kirika. 2003. Changes in shallow lake functioning: response to climate change and nutrient reduction. Hydrobiologia 506-509:789-796.
14. Carvalho, L., et al. 2013. Sustaining recreational quality of European lakes: minimizing the health risks from algal blooms through phosphorus control. Journal of Applied Ecology 50:315-323.
15. Carvalho, L., C. A. Miller (nee Ferguson), E. M. Scott, G. A. Codd, P. S. Davies, and A. N. Tyler. 2011. Cyanobacterial blooms: statistical models describing risk factors for national-scale lake assessment and lake management. Science of the Total Environment 409:5353-5358.
16. Castelletti, A., and R. Soncini-Sessa. 2007. Bayesian networks and participatory modelling in water resource management. Environmental Modelling and Software 22:1075-1088.
17. Chorus, I., and J. Bartram. 1999. Toxic cyanobacteria in water, a guide to their public health consequences, monitoring and management. World Health Organization, London, UK.
18. Chorus, I., and I. Schauser. 2011. Oligotrophication of Lake Tegel and Schlachtensee, Berlin. Pages I-IV in I. Chorus and I. Schauser, editors. Analysis of system components, causalities and response thresholds compared to responses of other waterbodies. Federal Environment Agency (Umweltbundesamt), Germany.
19. Clarke, K. R. 1993. Non-parametric multivariate analyses of changes in community structure. Australian Journal of Ecology 18:117-143.
20. Clarke, K. R., and R. N. Gorley. 2006. PRIMER v6: user manual/tutorial. PRIMER-E, Plymouth, UK.
21. Conley, D. J., H. W. Paerl, R. W. Howarth, D. F. Boesch, S. P. Seitzinger, K. E. Havens, C. Lancelot, and G. E. Likens. 2009. Controlling eutrophication: nitrogen and phosphorus. Science 323:1014-1015.
22. Dodds, W. K., W. W. Bouska, J. L. Eitzmann, T. J. Pilger, K. L. Pitts, A. J. Riley, J. T. Schloesser, and D. J. Thornbrugh. 2009. Eutrophication of U.S. freshwaters: analysis of potential economic damages. Environmental Science and Technology 43:12-19.
23. Dolman, A. M., J. Rucker, F. R. Pick, J. Fastner, T. Rohrlack, U. Mischke, and C. Wiedner. 2012. Cyanobacteria and cyanotoxins: the influence of nitrogen versus phosphorus. PLoS ONE 7:e38757.
24. Downing, J. A., S. B. Watson, and E. McCauley. 2001. Predicting cyanobacteria dominance in lakes. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 58:1905-1908.
25. Elliott, A., and L. May. 2008. The sensitivity of phytoplankton in Loch Leven (U.K.) to changes in nutrient load and water temperature. Freshwater Biology 53:32-41.
26. Elliott, A., S. J. Thackeray, C. Huntingford, and R. G. Jones. 2005. Combining a regional climate model with a phytoplankton community model to predict future changes in phytoplankton in lakes. Freshwater Biology 50:1404-1411.
27. Ellison, A. M. 1996. An introduction to Bayesian inference for ecological research and environmental decision-making. Ecological Applications 6:1036-1046.
28. Fristachi, A., et al. 2009. Occurrence of cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms workgroup report. Pages 46-103 in H. K. Hudnell, editor. Cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms: state of the science and research needs. Springer Science, New York, New York, USA.
29. Fujimoto, N., R. Sudo, N. Sugiura, and Y. Inamori. 1997. Nutrient-limited growth of Microcystis areuginosa and Phormidium tenue and competition under various N:P supply ratios and temperatures. Limnology and Oceanography 42:250-256.
30. Gallina, N., O. Anneville, and M. Beniston. 2011. Impacts of extreme air temperatures on cyanobacteria in five deep peri-Alpine lakes. Journal of Limnology 70:186-196.
31. Ganf, G. G., and R. L. Oliver. 1982. Vertical separation of light and available nutrients as a factor causing replacement of green algae by blue-green algae in the plankton of a stratified lake. Journal of Ecology 70:829-844.
32. Grobbelaar, J. U., and P. S. Stegmann. 1976. Biological assessment of the euphotic zone in a turbid man-made lake. Hydrobiologia 48:263-266.
33. Haenni, R., J. Romeijn, G. Wheeler, and J. Williamson. 2011. Probabilistic logics and probabilistic networks. Springer Science+Business Media, New York, New York, USA.
34. Hallegraeff, G. M. 1993. A review of harmful algal blooms and their apparent global increase. Phycologia 32:79-99.
35. Hamilton, G., C. Alston, T. Chiffings, E. Abal, B. T. Hart, and K. Mengersen. 2005. Integrating science though Bayesian belief networks: case study of Lyngbya in Moreton Bay. Pages 392-398 in Proceedings of International Congress on Modelling and Simulation 2005, 12-15 December, Melbourne. QUT, Melbourne, Victoria.
36. Hamilton, G., F. Fielding, A. W. Chiffings, B. T. Hart, R. W. Johnstone, and K. Mengersen. 2007. Investigating the use of a Bayesian network to model the risk of Lyngbya majuscula bloom initiation in Deception Bay, Queensland, Australia. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal 13:1271-1287.
37. Hamilton, G., R. McVinish, and K. Mengersen. 2009. Bayesian model averaging for harmful algal bloom prediction. Ecological Applications 19:1805-1814.
38. 2-fixing species. Ecological Modelling 195:205-218.
39. Hense, I., and H. Burchard. 2010. Modelling cyanobacteria in shallow coastal seas. Ecological Modelling 221:238-244.
40. Huber, V., C. Wagner, D. Gerten, and R. Adrian. 2012. To bloom or not to bloom: contrasting responses of cyanobacteria to recent heat waves explained by critical thresholds of abiotic drivers. Oecologia 169:245-256.
41. Hudson, J. J., W. D. Taylor, and D. W. Schindler. 2000. Phosphate concentrations in lakes. Nature 406:54-56.
42. Jensen, F. V. 1996. An introduction to Bayesian networks. Springer-Verlag, New York, New York, USA.
43. Jöhnk, K., J. Huisman, J. Sharples, B. Sommeijer, P. M. Visser, and A. M. Stroom. 2008. Summer heatwaves promote blooms of harmful cyanobacteria. Global Change Biology 14:495-512.
44. Kara, E. L., et al. 2012. Time-scale dependence in numerical simulations: assessment of physical, chemical, and biological predictions in a stratified lake at temporal scales of hours to months. Environmental Modelling and Software 35:104-121.
45. Kosten, S., et al. 2012. Warmer climates boost cyanobacterial dominance in shallow lakes. Global Change Biology 18:118-126.
46. Lee, J. H. W., Y. Huang, M. Dickman, and A. W. Jayawardena. 2003. Neural network modelling coastal algal blooms. Ecological Modelling 159:179-201.
47. Levine, S. N., and D. W. Schindler. 1999. Influence of nitrogen to phosphorus supply ratios and physicochemical conditions on cyanobacteria and phytoplankton species composition in the Experimental Lakes Area, Canada. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 56:451-466.
48. Maier, H. R., G. C. Dandy, and M. D. Burch. 1998. Use of artificial neural networks for modelling cyanobacteria Anabaena spp. in the River Murray, South Australia. Ecological Modelling 105:257-272.
49. Marcot, B. G., J. D. Steventon, G. D. Sutherland, and R. K. McCann. 2006. Guidelines for developing and updating Bayesian belief networks applied to ecological modeling and conservation. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 36:3063-3074.
50. Martin, J. L., and S. C. McCutcheon. 1999. Hydrodynamics and transport for water quality modelling. Lewis Publishers, Washington, D.C., USA.
51. McCann, R. K., B. G. Marcot, and R. Ellis. 2006. Bayesian belief networks: applications in ecology and natural resource management. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 36:3053-3062.
52. Muttil, N., and K. W. Chau. 2006. Neural network and genetic programming for modelling coastal algal blooms. International Journal of Environment and Pollution 28:223-238.
53. Nalewajko, C., and T. P. Murphy. 2001. Effects of temperature, and availability of nitrogen and phosphorous on the abundance of Anabaena and Microcystis in Lake Biwa, Japan: an experimental approach. Limnology 2:45-48.
54. Oliver, R. L., D. P. Hamilton, J. D. Brookes, and G. G. Ganf. 2012. Physiology, blooms and prediction of planktonic cyanobacteria. Pages 155-194 in B. A. Whitton, editor. Ecology of cyanobacteria II: their diversity in space and time. Springer Science, New York, New York, USA.
55. Paerl, H. W., and J. Huisman. 2008. Blooms like it hot. Science 320:57-58.
56. Pollino, C. A., and C. Henderson. 2010. Bayesian networks: a guide for their application in natural resource management and policy. Landscape Logic, Australian Government Department of the Environment, Water, Heritage and the Arts, Canberra, Australia.
57. Quinn, J. M., R. M. Monaghan, V. J. Bidwell, and S. R. Harris. 2013. A Bayesian belief network approach to evaluating complex effects of irrigation-driven agricultural intensification scenarios on future aquatic environmental and economic values in a New Zealand catchment. Marine and Freshwater Research 64:460-474.
58. Read, J. S., D. P. Hamilton, I. D. Jones, K. Muraoka, L. A. Winslow, R. Kroiss, C. H. Wu, and E. Gaiser. 2011. Derivation of lake mixing and stratification indices from high-resolution lake buoy data. Environmental Modelling and Software 26:1325-1336.
59. Reckhow, K. H. 1999. Water quality prediction and probability network models. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 56:1150-1158.
60. Reynolds, C. S. 1997. Excellence in ecology, vegetation processes in the pelagic: a model for the ecosystem theory. Ecology Institute, Oldendorf/Luhe, Germany.
61. Reynolds, C. S. 2006. The ecology of phytoplankton. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
62. Reynolds, C. S., J. Padisak, and U. Sommer. 1993. Intermediate disturbance in the ecology of phytoplankton and the maintenance of species diversity: a synthesis. Hydrobiologia 249:183-188.
63. Rigosi, A., C. C. Carey, B. W. Ibelings, and J. D. Brookes. 2014. The interaction between climate warming and eutrophication to promote cyanobacteria is dependent on trophic state and varies among taxa. Limnology and Oceanography 59:99-114.
64. Rigosi, A., W. Fleenor, and F. Rueda. 2010. State-of-the-art and recent progress in phytoplankton succession modelling. Environmental Reviews 18:423-440.
65. Rigosi, A., and F. J. Rueda. 2012. Propagation of uncertainty in ecological models of reservoirs: from physical to population dynamic predictions. Ecological Modelling 247:199-209.
66. Ryan, E. F., D. P. Hamilton, and G. E. Barnes. 2003. Recent occurrence of Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii in Waikato lakes of New Zealand. New Zealand Journal of Marine and Freshwater Research 37:829-836.
67. Schneider, P., and S. J. Hook. 2010. Space observations of inland water bodies show rapid surface warming since 1985. Geophysical Research Letters 37:L22405.
68. Sinha, R., L. A. Pearson, T. W. Davis, M. A. Burford, P. T. Orr, and B. A. Neilan. 2012. Increased incidence of Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii in temperate zones - is climate change responsible? Water Resources 46:1408-1409.
69. Spiegelhalter, D. J., A. P. Dawid, S. L. Lauritzen, and R. G. Cowell. 1993. Bayesian analysis in expert systems. Statistical Science 8:219-283.
70. Wagner, C., and R. Adrian. 2009. Cyanobacteria dominance: quantifying the effects of climate change. Limnology and Oceanography 54:2460-2468.
71. Walsby, A. E. 1994. Gas vesicles. Microbiological Reviews 58:94-144.
72. Winter, J., A. M. DeSellas, R. Fletcher, L. Heintsch, A. Morley, L. Nakamoto, and K. Utsumi. 2011. Algal blooms in Ontario, Canada: increases in reports since 1994. Lake and Reservoir Management 27:107-114.