Impact of projected climate change on hydrologic regime of the Upper Paraguay River basin

Climatic Change

Volumn 127, Issue 1, 2014, Pages 27-41

  Bravo, Juan Martín ^a   Collischonn, Walter ^a   da Paz, Adriano Rolim ^b   Allasia, Daniel ^c   Domecq, Federico ^a  

^a FEDERAL UNIVERSITY OF RIO GRANDE DO SUL   (Brazil)

^b FEDERAL UNIVERSITY OF PARAÍBA   (Brazil)

^c FEDERAL UNIVERSITY OF SANTA MARIA   (Brazil)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE MODELS; FORECASTING; HYDRAULIC MODELS; RIVERS; STREAM FLOW; TIME SERIES; WATERSHEDS;

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT; CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS; GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; HYDROLOGICAL MODELING; INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGES; PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES; TEMPERATURE INCREASE; UPPER PARAGUAY RIVER BASINS;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE PREDICTION; DISCHARGE; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION; HYDROLOGICAL MODELING; HYDROLOGICAL REGIME; RIVER BASIN; RIVER FLOW; STREAMFLOW; TIME SERIES;

PARAGUAY BASIN; SOUTH AMERICA;

EID: 84912018586     PISSN: 01650009     EISSN: 15731480     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0816-2     Document Type: Article

References (32)

1. Allasia DG, Collischonn W, Silva BC, Tucci CEM (2006) Large basin simulation experience in South America. IAHS Publ 303:360–370
2. Allen MR, Ingram WJ (2002) Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle. Nature 419:224–232
3. Bates BC, Kundzewicz ZW, Wu S, Palutikof JP (2008) Climate change and water. Technical Paper of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC Secretariat, Geneva, 210 pp
4. Blöschl G, Montanari A (2010) Climate change impacts—throwing the dice? Hydrol Process 24:374–381. doi:10.1002/hyp.7574
5. Bordas MP (1996) The Pantanal: an ecosystem in need of protection. Int J Sed Res 11(3):34–39
6. Bravo JM, Paz AR, Collischonn W, Uvo CB, Pedrollo OC, Chou SC (2009) Incorporating forecasts of rainfall in two hydrologic models used for medium-range streamflow forecasting. J Hydrol Eng 14(5):435–445. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000014
7. Bravo JM, Allasia D, Paz AR, Collischonn W, Tucci CEM (2012) Coupled hydrologic-hydraulic modeling of the Upper Paraguay River Basin. J Hydrol Eng 17(5):635–646
8. Collischonn W, Tucci CEM, Clarke RT (2001) Further evidence of changes in the hydrological regime of the River Paraguay: part of a wider phenomenon of climate change? J Hydrol 245:218–238
9. Collischonn W, Allasia D, Silva BC, Tucci CEM (2007) The MGB-IPH model for large scale rainfall runoff modeling. Hydrol Sci 52(5):878–895. doi:10.1623/hysj.52.5.878
10. Collischonn B, Collischonn W, Tucci CEM (2008) Daily hydrological modeling in the Amazon basin using TRMM rainfall estimates. J Hydrol 360(1–4):207–216. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.07.032
11. Da Silva CJ, Girard P (2004) New challenges in the management of the Brazilian Pantanal and catchment area. Wetl Ecol Manag 12:553–561
12. Hagedorn R, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Palmer TN (2005) The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting–I. Basic concept. Tellus 57A:219–233
13. Hamilton SK (1999) Potential effects of a major navigation project (Paraguay-Paraná Hidrovía) on inundation in the Pantanal floodplains. Regul Rivers Res Manag 15:289–299. doi:10.1002/(SICI)1099-1646(199907/08)15:4<289::AID-RRR520>3.0.CO;2-I
14. Hamilton SK (2002) Human impacts on hydrology in the Pantanal wetland of South America. Water Sci Technol 45(11):35–44
15. Hulme M, Raper SCB, Wigley TML (1995) An integrated framework to address climate change (ESCAPE) and further developments of the global and regional climate modules (MAGICC). Energy Police 23(4/5):347–355
16. IPCC (2000) Special report on emissions scenarios. Intergovernmental panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press
17. Junk WJ, Bayley PB, Sparks RE (1989) The flood pulse concept in River-Floodplain-Systems. Can Spec Publ Fish Aquat Sci 106:110–127
18. Junk WJ, Cunha CN, Wantzen KM, Petermann P, Strüssmann C, Marques MI, Adis J (2006) Biodiversity and its conservation in the Pantanal of Mato Grosso, Brazil. Aquat Sci. doi:10.1007/s00027-006-0851-4
19. Kay AL, Davies HN, Bell VA, Jones RG (2009) Comparison of uncertainty sources for climate change impacts: flood frequency in England. Clim Chang 92(1–2):41–63. doi:10.1007/s10584-008-9471-4
20. Koutsoyiannis D, Efstratiadis A, Mamassis N, Christofides A (2008) On the credibility of climate predictions. Hydrol Sci J 53(4):671–684
21. Nóbrega MTN, Collischonn W, Tucci CEM, Paz AR (2011) Uncertainty in climate change impacts on water resources in the Rio Grande Basin, Brazil. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 15:585–595. doi:10.5194/hess-15-585-2011
22. Paz AR, Bravo JM, Allasia D, Collischonn W, Tucci CEM (2010) Large-scale hydrodynamic modeling of a complex river network and floodplains. J Hydrol Eng 15(2):152–165. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000162
23. Paz AR, Collischonn W, Tucci CEM, Padovani CR (2011) Large-scale modelling of channel flow and floodplain inundation dynamics and its application to the Pantanal (Brazil). Hydrol Process 25:1498–1516. doi:10.1002/hyp.7926
24. Pepper WJ, Barbour W, Sankovski A, Braaz B (1998) No-policy greenhouse gas emission scenarios: revisiting IPCC 1992. Environ Sci Pol 1:289–312
25. Reichler T, Kim J (2008) How well do coupled models simulate today’s climate? Bull Am Meteorol Soc 89:303–311
26. Riahi K, Roehrl A (2000) Greenhouse gas emissions in a dynamics-as-usual scenario of economic and energy development. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 63(2–3):175–205
27. Serrat-Capdevila A, Valdes JB, Pérez JG, Baird K, Mata LJ, Maddock T (2007) Modeling climate change impacts–and uncertainty–on the hydrology of a riparian system: the San Pedro Basin (Arizona/Sonora). J Hydrol 347:48–66
28. Tucci CEM, Clarke RT (1998) Environmental issues in the la Plata basin. Water Resour Dev 4(2):157–173
29. Tucci CEM, Genz F, Clarke RT (1999) Hydrology of the Upper Paraguay Basin. In: Biswas K, Cordeiro N, Braga B, Tortajada C (eds) Management of Latin American River Basins: Amazon, Plata and São Francisco. United Nations University Press
30. Tucci CEM, Clarke RT, Collischonn W, Dias PLS, Sampaio G (2003) Long term flow forecast based on climate and hydrological modeling: Uruguay River basin. Water Resour Res 39(7):1181. doi:10.1029/2003WR002074
31. USACE, US Army Corps of Engineers (2004) HEC-RAS, river analysis system, user’s manual version 3.1.2, 602 pp
32. Wigley TML (2008) MAGICC/SCENGEN 5.3: user manual (version 2). National Center for Atmospheric Research, Colorado, 81 pp