Greenhouse gas emissions in a dynamics-as-usual scenario of economic and energy development

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Volumn 63, Issue 2-3, 2000, Pages 175-205

  Riahi, Keywan ^a   Roehrl, R Alexander ^b  

^a INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS   (Austria)

^b NONE

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT; EMISSION INVENTORY; ENERGY USE; GREENHOUSE GAS;

EID: 0033935066     PISSN: 00401625     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/S0040-1625(99)00111-0     Document Type: Article

References (34)

1. Morita, T., and Lee, H.-C.: IPCC SRES Database, Version 0.1, Emission Scenario Database Prepared for IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 3(2-4), 121-131 (1998).
2. Pepper, W., Leggett, J., Swart, R., Wasson, J., Edmonds, J., and Mintzer, I.: Emission Scenarios for the IPCC - An Update: Assumptions, Methodology, and Results. Prepared for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group 1, May 1992.
3. Climate Change 1994, Radiative Forcing of Climate Change and on Evaluation of the IPCC IS92 Emission Scenarios. 1995;Cambridge University Press, UK.
4. Nakićenović N., Grübler A., McDonald A. Global Energy Perspectives. 1998;Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
5. Jiang K., Masui T., Morita T., Matsuoka Y. Long-Term GHG Emission Scenarios for Asia-Pacific and the World. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 63(2-3):2000;207-229.
6. Sankovski A., Barbour W., Pepper W. Quantification of the IS99 Emission Scenario Storylines Using the Atmospheric Stabilization Framework. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 63(2-3):2000;263-287.
7. de Vries B., Bollen J., Bouwman L., den Elzen M., Janssen M., Kreileman E. Greenhouse Gas Emissions in an Equity-, Environment- and Service-Oriented World. An IMAGE-Based Scenario for the 21st Century Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 63(2-3):2000;137-174.
8. Grübler A. Technology and Global Change. 1998;Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
9. Nakićenović, N.: Freeing Energy from Carbon, Daedalus, Journal of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences 125(3), 95-112 (1996).
10. Wigley T.M.L., Raper S.C.B. Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-Gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC Version 2.3). 1997;The Climate Research Unit, University of East Anglia, UK.
11. Watson R., Zinyowera M.C., Moss R. Climate Change 1995. Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change. Scientific Analyses. Contribution of Working Group II to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change:1996;Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
12. UN (United Nations): World Population Projections to 2150. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division, New York, NY, USA, 1998.
13. Lutz, W., ed.: The Future Population of the World: What Can We Assume Today? (Revised and updated edition), Earthscan, London, UK, 1996.
14. Maddison, A.: Monitoring the World Economy 1820-1992. OECD Development Center Studies, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris, France.
15. Wigley, T. M. L., and Raper, S. C. B.: Implications for climate and sea level of revised IPCC emissions scenarios, Nature 357, 293-300 (1992).
16. Wigley, T. M. L.: Balancing the carbon budget: Implications for projections of future carbon dioxide concentration change, Tellus 45B, 409-425 (1993).
17. Nakićenović, N., Amann, M., and Fischer, G.: Global Energy Supply and Demand and Their Environmental Effects. Report to the Central Research Institute of the Electric Power Industry, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, February 1998.
18. Messner, S., and Strubegger, M.: User's Guide for MESSAGE III, WP-95-69. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, 1995.
19. Messner, S., and Schrattenholzer, L.: MESSAGE-MACRO: Linking an Energy Supply Model with a Macroeconomic Module and Solving It Iteratively, Energy (in press).
20. Messner, S., and Strubegger, M.: User's Guide to CO2DB: The IIASA CO2 Technology Data Bank Version 1.0. Working Paper-91-31a, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, 1991.
21. Strubegger, M., and Reitgruber, I.: Statistical Analysis of Investment Costs for Power Generation Technologies. Working Paper-95-109, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, 1995.
22. Rogner, H.-H.: An Assessment of World Hydrocarbon Resources, Annual Review of Energy and the Environment 22, 217-262 (1997).
23. United Nations: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). UNFCCC Secretariat, Bonn, Germany, 1992.
24. Nakićenović, N., Grübler, A., Ishitani, H., Johansson, T., Marland, G., Moreira, J. R., and Rogner, H.-H.: Energy primer, in Climate Change 1995: Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific-Technical Analysis. Contribution of Working Group II to the Second Assessment Report of the IPCC; Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 1996, pp. 75-92.
25. Olivier, J. G. J., Bouwman, A. F., van der Maas, C. W. M., Berdowski, J. J. M., Veldt, C., Bloos, J. P. J., Visschedijk, A. J. H., Zanfield, P. Y. J., and Haverlag, J. L.: Description of EDGAR Version 2.0: A Set of Global Emission Inventories of Greenhouse Gas Gases and Ozone-Depleting Substances for All Anthropogenic and Most Natural Sources on a per Country Basis and on a 1° × 1° grid. RIVM Report 771060 002, RIVM, Bilthoven, the Netherlands, 1996.
26. Morita, T., Matsuoka, Y., Kanuma, M., Harasawa, H., and Kai, K.: AIM - Asian-Pacific Integrated Model for Evaluating Policy Options to Reduce GHG Emissions and Global Warming Impacts. Paper for Workshop on Global Warming Issues in Asia, 8-10 September 1997.
27. Schönhart, W.: Assessment of Future Energy Technology Characteristics. Diplomarbeit, Technical University, Graz, Austria, 1999.
28. Grübler, A.: A Review of Global and Regional Sulfur Emission Scenarios. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 3(2-4), 383-418 (1998).
29. Wigley, T. R., Richels, R., and Edmonds, J.: Economic and Environmental Choices in the Stabilization of Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations, Nature 359(6562), 240-243 (1996).
30. Akimoto, K.: A Simple Climate Change Model. Manuscript, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, 1997.
31. 2 concentrations. Energy Policy 23(4/5), 370-373 (1995).
32. Schrattenholzer, L.: EMF14: Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Models, First Round Scenario Results. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
33. Marchetti, C.: How to Solve the CO2 Problem without Tears. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy 14(8), 493-506 (1989).
34. Nakićenović, N.: Technological Substitution and Long Waves in the USA, The Long-Wave Debate. Tibor Vasko, ed., Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 1987.