-
1
-
-
0030438938
-
A method for producing and evaluating probabilistic forecasts from ensemble model integrations
-
Anderson JL. 1996. A method for producing and evaluating probabilistic forecasts from ensemble model integrations. J. Clim. 9: 1518-1530, doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<1518:AMFPAE>2.0.CO;2.
-
(1996)
J. Clim.
, vol.9
, pp. 1518-1530
-
-
Anderson, J.L.1
-
2
-
-
0003010182
-
Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability
-
Brier GW. 1950. Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability. Mon. Weather Rev. 78: 1-3, doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(1950)078<0001:VOFEIT>2.0.CO;2.
-
(1950)
Mon. Weather Rev.
, vol.78
, pp. 1-3
-
-
Brier, G.W.1
-
3
-
-
84866159248
-
Evaluating raw ensembles with the continuous ranked probability score
-
Bröcker J. 2012. Evaluating raw ensembles with the continuous ranked probability score. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 138: 1611-1617, doi: 10.1002/qj.1891.
-
(2012)
Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc.
, vol.138
, pp. 1611-1617
-
-
Bröcker, J.1
-
4
-
-
78651321151
-
The concept of exchangeability in ensemble forecasting
-
Bröcker J, Kantz H. 2011. The concept of exchangeability in ensemble forecasting. Nonlinear Processes Geophys. 18: 1-5, doi: 10.5194/npg-18-1-2011.
-
(2011)
Nonlinear Processes Geophys.
, vol.18
, pp. 1-5
-
-
Bröcker, J.1
Kantz, H.2
-
5
-
-
34249087709
-
Scoring probabilistic forecasts: The importance of being proper
-
Bröcker J, Smith LA. 2007. Scoring probabilistic forecasts: The importance of being proper. Weather and Forecasting 22: 382-388, doi: 10.1175/WAF966.1.
-
(2007)
Weather and Forecasting
, vol.22
, pp. 382-388
-
-
Bröcker, J.1
Smith, L.A.2
-
6
-
-
84908878773
-
-
Admissible scoring systems for continuous distributions', Technical Note P-5235. The Rand Corporation: Santa Monica, CA.
-
Brown TA. 1974. 'Admissible scoring systems for continuous distributions', Technical Note P-5235. The Rand Corporation: Santa Monica, CA.
-
(1974)
-
-
Brown, T.A.1
-
7
-
-
35948942400
-
Comparing probabilistic forecasting systems with the Brier score
-
Ferro CAT. 2007. Comparing probabilistic forecasting systems with the Brier score. Weather and Forecasting 22: 1076-1088, doi: 10.1175/WAF1034.1.
-
(2007)
Weather and Forecasting
, vol.22
, pp. 1076-1088
-
-
Ferro, C.A.T.1
-
8
-
-
81855161303
-
Extremal dependence indices: Improved verification measures for deterministic forecasts of rare binary events
-
Ferro CAT, Stephenson DB. 2011. Extremal dependence indices: Improved verification measures for deterministic forecasts of rare binary events. Weather and Forecasting 26: 699-713, doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-10-05030.1.
-
(2011)
Weather and Forecasting
, vol.26
, pp. 699-713
-
-
Ferro, C.A.T.1
Stephenson, D.B.2
-
9
-
-
42549103051
-
On the effect of ensemble size on the discrete and continuous ranked probability scores
-
Ferro CAT, Richardson DS, Weigel AP. 2008. On the effect of ensemble size on the discrete and continuous ranked probability scores. Meteorol. Appl. 15: 19-24, doi: 10.1002/met.45.
-
(2008)
Meteorol. Appl.
, vol.15
, pp. 19-24
-
-
Ferro, C.A.T.1
Richardson, D.S.2
Weigel, A.P.3
-
10
-
-
77953220812
-
Calibrating multimodel forecast ensembles with exchangeable and missing members using Bayesian model averaging
-
Fraley C, Raftery AE, Gneiting T. 2010. Calibrating multimodel forecast ensembles with exchangeable and missing members using Bayesian model averaging. Mon. Weather Rev. 138: 190-202, doi: 10.1175/2009MWR3046.1.
-
(2010)
Mon. Weather Rev.
, vol.138
, pp. 190-202
-
-
Fraley, C.1
Raftery, A.E.2
Gneiting, T.3
-
11
-
-
84879024933
-
Three recommendations for evaluating climate predictions
-
Fricker TE, Ferro CAT, Stephenson DB. 2013. Three recommendations for evaluating climate predictions. Meteorol. Appl. 20: 246-255, doi: 10.1002/met.1409.
-
(2013)
Meteorol. Appl.
, vol.20
, pp. 246-255
-
-
Fricker, T.E.1
Ferro, C.A.T.2
Stephenson, D.B.3
-
12
-
-
79960137323
-
Making and evaluating point forecasts
-
Gneiting T. 2011. Making and evaluating point forecasts. J. Amer. Stat. Assoc. 106: 746-762, doi: 10.1198/jasa.2011.r10138.
-
(2011)
J. Amer. Stat. Assoc.
, vol.106
, pp. 746-762
-
-
Gneiting, T.1
-
13
-
-
33947274775
-
Strictly proper scoring rules, prediction, and estimation
-
Gneiting T, Raftery AE. 2007. Strictly proper scoring rules, prediction, and estimation. J. Amer. Stat. Assoc. 102: 359-378, doi: 10.1198/016214506000001437.
-
(2007)
J. Amer. Stat. Assoc.
, vol.102
, pp. 359-378
-
-
Gneiting, T.1
Raftery, A.E.2
-
14
-
-
0000558731
-
Rational decisions
-
Good IJ. 1952. Rational decisions. J. R. Stat. Soc. B 14: 107-114.
-
(1952)
J. R. Stat. Soc. B
, vol.14
, pp. 107-114
-
-
Good, I.J.1
-
15
-
-
0002897679
-
Verification of the Eta-RSM short-range ensemble forecasts
-
Hamill TM, Colucci SJ. 1997. Verification of the Eta-RSM short-range ensemble forecasts. Mon. Weather Rev. 125: 1312-1327, doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<1312:VOERSR>2.0.CO;2.
-
(1997)
Mon. Weather Rev.
, vol.125
, pp. 1312-1327
-
-
Hamill, T.M.1
Colucci, S.J.2
-
16
-
-
77956807349
-
How do we know whether seasonal climate forecasts are any good?
-
Troccoli A, Harrison M, Anderson DLT, Mason SJ. (eds). Springer: Dordrecht, The Netherlands.
-
Mason SJ, Stephenson DB. 2008. How do we know whether seasonal climate forecasts are any good? In Seasonal Climate: Forecasting and Managing Risk, Troccoli A, Harrison M, Anderson DLT, Mason SJ. (eds): 259-289. Springer: Dordrecht, The Netherlands.
-
(2008)
Seasonal Climate: Forecasting and Managing Risk
, pp. 259-289
-
-
Mason, S.J.1
Stephenson, D.B.2
-
17
-
-
64149125312
-
A generic forecast verification framework for administrative purposes
-
Mason SJ, Weigel AP. 2009. A generic forecast verification framework for administrative purposes. Mon. Weather Rev. 137: 331-349, doi: 10.1175/2008MWR2553.1.
-
(2009)
Mon. Weather Rev.
, vol.137
, pp. 331-349
-
-
Mason, S.J.1
Weigel, A.P.2
-
18
-
-
33847339405
-
Conditional exceedance probabilities
-
Mason SJ, Galpin JS, Goddard L, Graham NE, Rajartnam B. 2007. Conditional exceedance probabilities. Mon. Weather Rev. 135: 363-372, doi: 10.1175/MWR3284.1.
-
(2007)
Mon. Weather Rev.
, vol.135
, pp. 363-372
-
-
Mason, S.J.1
Galpin, J.S.2
Goddard, L.3
Graham, N.E.4
Rajartnam, B.5
-
19
-
-
0016961866
-
Scoring rules for continuous probability distributions
-
Matheson JE, Winkler RL. 1976. Scoring rules for continuous probability distributions. Manage. Sci. 22: 1087-1096, doi: 10.1287/mnsc.22.10.1087.
-
(1976)
Manage. Sci.
, vol.22
, pp. 1087-1096
-
-
Matheson, J.E.1
Winkler, R.L.2
-
20
-
-
33947226446
-
Measures of the value of information
-
McCarthy J. 1956. Measures of the value of information. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 42: 654-655.
-
(1956)
Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci.
, vol.42
, pp. 654-655
-
-
McCarthy, J.1
-
21
-
-
0002026123
-
Forecast verification
-
Katz RW, Murphy AH. (eds). Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK.
-
Murphy AH. 1997. Forecast verification. In Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts, Katz RW, Murphy AH. (eds): 19-74. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK.
-
(1997)
Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts
, pp. 19-74
-
-
Murphy, A.H.1
-
22
-
-
0002454360
-
-
Forecast evaluation. In, eds. Westview Press: Boulder, CO.
-
Murphy AH, Daan H. 1985. Forecast evaluation. In Probability, Statistics, and Decision Making in the Atmospheric Sciences, Murphy AH, Katz RW. (eds): 379-437. Westview Press: Boulder, CO.
-
(1985)
Probability, Statistics, and Decision Making in the Atmospheric Sciences
, pp. 379-437
-
-
Murphy, A.H.1
Daan, H.2
Murphy, A.H.3
Katz, R.W.4
-
23
-
-
84950658032
-
Elicitation of personal probabilities and expectations
-
Savage LJ. 1971. Elicitation of personal probabilities and expectations. J. Amer. Stat. Assoc. 66: 783-801, doi: 10.1080/01621459.1971.10482346.
-
(1971)
J. Amer. Stat. Assoc.
, vol.66
, pp. 783-801
-
-
Savage, L.J.1
-
24
-
-
0033924470
-
Use of the 'odds ratio' for diagnosing forecast skill
-
Stephenson DB. 2000. Use of the 'odds ratio' for diagnosing forecast skill. Weather and Forecasting 15: 221-232, doi: 10.1175/1520-0434(2000)015<0221:UOTORF>2.0.CO;2.
-
(2000)
Weather and Forecasting
, vol.15
, pp. 221-232
-
-
Stephenson, D.B.1
-
25
-
-
0034098639
-
Statistical methods for interpreting Monte Carlo ensemble forecasts
-
Stephenson DB, Doblas-Reyes FJ. 2000. Statistical methods for interpreting Monte Carlo ensemble forecasts. Tellus 52A: 300-322, doi: 10.1034/j.1600-0870.2000.d01-5.x.
-
(2000)
Tellus
, vol.52 A
, pp. 300-322
-
-
Stephenson, D.B.1
Doblas-Reyes, F.J.2
-
26
-
-
84868092934
-
Verification of ensemble forecasts
-
Jolliffe IT, Stephenson DB. (eds). John Wiley and Sons: Chichester, UK.
-
Weigel AP. 2012. Verification of ensemble forecasts. In Forecast Verification: a Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science, Jolliffe IT, Stephenson DB. (eds): 141-166. John Wiley and Sons: Chichester, UK.
-
(2012)
Forecast Verification: a Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science
, pp. 141-166
-
-
Weigel, A.P.1
-
28
-
-
0000205049
-
The quantification of judgment: Some methodological suggestions
-
Winkler RL. 1967. The quantification of judgment: Some methodological suggestions. J. Amer. Stat. Assoc. 62: 1105-1120, doi: 10.1080/01621459.1967.10500920.
-
(1967)
J. Amer. Stat. Assoc.
, vol.62
, pp. 1105-1120
-
-
Winkler, R.L.1
-
29
-
-
0000324594
-
'Good' probability assessors
-
Winkler RL, Murphy AH. 1968. 'Good' probability assessors. J. Appl. Meteorol. 7: 751-758, doi: 10.1175/1520-0450(1968)007<0751:PA>2.0.CO;2.
-
(1968)
J. Appl. Meteorol.
, vol.7
, pp. 751-758
-
-
Winkler, R.L.1
Murphy, A.H.2
|