Maps, laws and planning policy: Working with biophysical and spatial uncertainty in the case of sea level rise

Environmental Science and Policy

Volumn 44, Issue , 2014, Pages 247-257

  Bell, Justine ^a   Saunders, Megan I ^a   Leon, Javier X ^a   Mills, Morena ^a   Kythreotis, Andrew ^b   Phinn, Stuart ^a   Mumby, Peter J ^a   Lovelock, Catherine E ^a   Hoegh Guldberg, Ove ^a   Morrison, T H ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF QUEENSLAND   (Australia)

^b CARDIFF UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Law; Mapping; Planning; Policy; Sea level rise; Uncertainty

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; AUSTRALIA; BIOPHYSICS; CLIMATE CHANGE; COASTAL WATERS; ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING; GEOGRAPHY; GEOMORPHOLOGY; HUMAN; ICE SHEET; POLICY; REMOTE SENSING; SCIENCE; SEA LEVEL; SEA LEVEL RISE; SEASHORE; SEDIMENT; TOPOGRAPHY; UNCERTAINTY; WEATHER;

EID: 84908616851     PISSN: 14629011     EISSN: 18736416     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2014.07.018     Document Type: Article

References (78)

1. Abel N., Gorddard R., Harman B., Leitch A., Langridge J., Ryan A., Heyenga S. SLR, coastal development and planned retreat: analytical framework, governance principles and an Australian case study. Environ. Sci. Policy 2011, 14(3):279-288.
2. Adger W.N., Arnell N.W., Tompkins E.L. Successful adaptation to climate change across scales. Glob. Environ. Change 2005, 15:77-86.
3. Australian Government Department of Climate Change Climate Change Risks to Australia's Coast - A First Pass National Assessment 2009, Canberra.
4. Ballu V., Bouin M.N., Siméoni P., Crawford W.C., Calmant S., Boré J.-M., Kanas T., Pelletier B. Comparing the role of absolute SLR and vertical tectonic motions in coastal flooding, Torres Islands (Vanuatu). Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 2011, 108(32):13019-13022.
5. Barbier E.B., Hacker S.D., Kennedy C., Koch E.W., Stier A.C., Silliman B.R. The value of estuarine and coastal ecosystem services. Ecol. Monogr. 2011, 81:169-193.
6. Bradshaw G.A., Borchers J.G. Uncertainty as information: narrowing the science-policy gap. Conserv. Ecol. 2000, 4(1):7.
7. Bebbington A. Underground political ecologies. Geoforum 2012, 43(6):1152-1162.
8. Bell, J., T.H. Morrison (forthcoming) Land use planning for flood risk: a comparative analysis of governance systems. J. Environ. Policy Plann. (Accepted 9 June 2014).
9. Bruun P. SLR as a cause of shore erosion. J. Waterw. Harb. Div. Am. Soc. Civ. Eng. 1962, 88:117-130.
10. Caldwell M.R., Segall C. No day at the beach: sea level rise, ecosystem loss, and public access along the California coast. Ecol. Law Q. 2007, 34:533.
11. Callaghan D.P., Roshanka R., Andrew S. Quantifying the storm erosion hazard for coastal planning. Coast. Eng. 2009, 56:90-93.
12. Church J.A., Gregory J.M., White N.J., Platten S.M., Mitrovica J.X. Understanding and projecting sea level change. Oceanography 2011, 24:130-143.
13. Church J.A., et al. Sea level change. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2013, Cambridge University Press, United Kingdom. T.F. Stocker (Ed.).
14. Cooper J.A.G., Pilkey O.H. SLR and shoreline retreat: time to abandon the Bruun rule. Glob. Planet. Change 2004, 43(3-4):157-171.
15. Cowell P., Kench P.S. The morphological response of Atoll Islands to SLR. Part 1: Modifications to the Shoreface Translation Model. International Coastal Symposium 2000: Challenges for the 21st Century in Coastal Sciences, Engineering and Environment. Waikato Print 2001, The University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand. T.R. Healy (Ed.).
16. Cowell P., Thom B.G. Morphodynamics of coastal evolution. Coastal Evolution: Late Quaternary Shoreline Morphodynamics 1994, Cambridge University Press, New York. R.W.G. Carter, C.D. Woodroffe (Eds.).
17. Craig R.K. "Stationarity is dead"-long live transformation: five principles for climate change adaptation law. Harv. Environ. Law Rev. 2010, 34(1):9-74.
18. Davis T., Keller C.P. Modelling and visualizing multiple spatial uncertainties. Comput. Geosci. 1997, 23(4):397-408.
19. Dowdy A.J., Mills G.A., Timbal B., Wang Y. Fewer large waves projected for Eastern Australia due to decreasing storminess. Nat. Clim. Change 2014, 4(4):283-286.
20. Fitzgerald D.M., Fenster M.S., Argow B.A., Buynevich I.V. Coastal impacts due to SLR. Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 2008, 36(1):601-647.
21. Forsyth A. Administrative discretion and urban and regional planners' values. J. Plan. Lit. 1999, 14(1):5-15.
22. Gesch D.B. Analysis of lidar elevation data for improved identification and delineation of lands vulnerable to SLR. J. Coast. Res. 2009, 53:49-58.
23. Gilman E.L., Ellison J., Duke N.C., Field C. Threats to mangroves from climate change and adaptation options: a review. Aquat. Bot. 2008, 89(2):237-250.
24. Glasser R.D. Linking science more closely to policy-making: global climate change and the national reorganization of science and technology policy. Climat. Change 1995, 29(2):131-143.
25. Hamylton S.M., Leon J.X., Saunders M.I., Woodroffe C.D. Simulating reef response to sea-level rise at Lizard Island: a geospatial approach. Geomorphology 2014, 222:151-161.
26. Hamylton S.M., Pescud A., Leon J.X., Callaghan D.P. A geospatial assessment of the relationship between reef flat community calcium carbonate production and wave energy. Coral Reefs 2013, 32(4):1025-1039.
27. Hengl T., Heuvelink G.B.M., van Loon E.E. On the uncertainty of stream networks derived from elevation data: the error propagation approach. Hydrol. Earth Sys. Sci. 2010, 14(7):1153-1165.
28. Hettiarachchi M., McAlpine C., Morrison T.H. Governing the urban wetlands: a multiple case-study of policy, institutions and reference points. Environ. Conserv. 2014, 41(3):276-289.
29. Hoegh-Guldberg O., Mumby P.J., Hooten A.J., Stenech R.S., Greenfield P., Gomez E., Harvell C.D., Sale P.F., Edwards A.J., Caldeira K., Knowlton N., Eakin C.M., Iglesias-Prieto R., Muthiga N., Bradbury R.H., Dubi A., Hatziolos M.E. Coral reefs under rapid climate change and ocean acidification. Science 2007, 318:1737-1742.
30. Hunt A., Watkiss P. Climate change impacts and adaptation in cities: a review of the literature. Climat. Change 2011, 104(1):13-49.
31. IPCC Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007, IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 104 pp. R.K. Pachauri, A. Reisinger (Eds.).
32. Jelgersma S. Causes, consequences, and strategies. Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Subsidence 1996, Kluwer, Dordrecht. J.D. Milliman, B.U. Haq (Eds.).
33. Keys N., Bussey M., Thomsen D.C., Lynam T., Smith T.F. Building adaptive capacity in South East Queensland, Australia. Glob. Environ. Change 2014, 14:501-512.
34. Kirwan M.L., Guntenspergen G.R., D'Alpaos A., Morris J.T., Mudd S.M., Temmerman S. Limits on the adaptability of coastal marshes to rising sea-level. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2010, 37:L23401.
35. Klein R.J.T., Nicholls R.J. Assessment of coastal vulnerability to climate change. AMBIO 1999, 28(2):182-187.
36. Kolker A.S., Allison M.A., Hameed S. An evaluation of subsidence rates and sea-level variability in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2011, 38(21):L21404.
37. Lawrence J., Reisinger A., Mullan B., Jackson B. Exploring climate change uncertainties to support adaptive management of changing flood-risk. Environ. Sci. Policy 2013, 33:133-142.
38. Lehman J. Expecting the sea: the nature of uncertainty on Sri Lanka's East coast. Geoforum 2013, 52:245-256.
39. Lemos M.C., Morehouse B.J. The co-production of science and policy in integrated climate assessments. Glob. Environ. Change 2005, 15:57-68.
40. Leon J.X., Woodroffe C.D. Morphological characterisation of reef types in Torres Strait and an assessment of their carbonate production. Mar. Geol. 2013, 388:64-75.
41. Lotze H.K., Lenihan H.S., Bourque B.J., Bradbury R.H., Cooke R.G., Kay M.C., Kidwell S.M., Kirby M.X., Peterson C.H., Jackson J.B.C. Depletion, degradation, and recovery potential of estuaries and coastal seas. Science 2006, 312:1806-1809.
42. Lovelock C.E., Bennion V., Grinham A., Cahoon D.R. The role of surface and subsurface processes in keeping pace with sea level rise in intertidal wetlands of Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia. Ecosystems 2011, 14(5):745-757.
43. McCusker B., Weiner D. GIS representations of nature, political ecology, and land use and land cover change in South Africa. Political Ecology: An Integrative Approach to Geography and Environment-Development Studies 2003, Guilford Press, New York. K. Zimmerer, T. Bassett (Eds.).
44. McGranahan G., Balk D., Anderson B. The rising tide: assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones. Environ. Urban. 2007, 19:17-37.
45. McInnes K.L., Walsh K.J.E., Hubbert G.D., Beer T. Impact of SLR and storm surges on a coastal community. Nat. Hazards 2003, 30(2):187-207.
46. Morrison T.H. Developing a regional governance index: The institutional potential of regions. J. Rural Stud. 2014, 35:101-111.
47. Nicholls R.J. Coastal flooding and wetland loss in the 21st century: changes under the SRES climate and socio-economic scenarios. Glob. Environ. Change 2004, 14:69-86.
48. Nicholls R.J., Mimura N. Regional issues raised by SLR and their policy implications. Clim. Res. 1998, 11:5-18.
49. Nicholls R.J., Cazenave A. SLR and its impact on coastal zones. Science 2010, 328:1517-1520.
50. Nicholls R.J., Tol R.S.J. Impacts and responses to SLR: a global analysis of the SRES scenarios over the twenty-first century. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. A 2006, 364:1073-1095.
51. Pressey R.L., Mills M., Weeks R., Day J.C. The plan of the day: managing the dynamic transition from regional conservation designs to local conservation actions. Biol. Conserv. 2013, 166:155-169.
52. Purdy R. Legal and and privacy issues of spy in the sky satellites. Mountbatten J. Legal Stud. 1999, 3(1):63-79.
53. Queensland Government Queensland Coastal Plan 2012, www.derm.qld.gov.au/coastalplan/pdf/qcp-web.pdf (accessed 05.06.12).
54. Queensland Government Queensland Coastal Plan Coastal Hazards Guideline 2012, www.derm.qld.gov.au/coastalplan/pdf/hazards-guideline.pdf (accessed 05.06.12).
55. Queensland Government Office of Climate Change Climate Change: Adaptation for Queensland: Issues Paper 2011, www.derm.qld.gov.au/climatechange/pdf/adaptation-issues-paper.pdf (accessed 05.06.12).
56. Ranasinghe R., Callaghan D., Stive M. Estimating coastal recession due to SLR: beyond the Bruun rule. Climat. Change 2012, 110:561-574.
57. Ranger N., Niehorster F. Deep uncertainty in long-term hurricane risk: scenario generation and implications for future climate experiments. Glob. Environ. Change 2012, 22:703-712.
58. Revell D.L., Battalio R., Spear B., Ruggerio P., Vandever J. A methodology for predicting future coastal hazards due to SLR on the California coast. Climat. Change 2011, 109(1):251-276.
59. Robbins P. Beyond ground truth: GIS and the environmental knowledge of herders. Professional foresters, and other traditional communities. Hum. Ecol. 2003, 31(2):233-253.
60. Roelfsema C., Kovacs E., Saunders M., Phinn S., Lyons M., Maxwell P. Challenges of remote sensing for quantifying change in large complex seagrass environments. Estuarine. Coast. Shelf Sci. 2013, 133:161-171.
61. Saunders M., Leon J., Phinn S.R., Callaghan D.P., O'Brien K.R., Roelfsema C.M., Lovelock C.E., Lyons M.B., Mumby P.J. Coastal retreat and improved water quality mitigate losses of seagrass from sea level rise. Glob. Change Biol. 2013, 19:2569-2583.
62. Scott J.C. Seeing Like A State: How Certain Schemes to Improve the Human Condition Have Failed 1998, New Haven, Yale University Press.
63. Schmid K.A., Hadley B.C., Wijekoon N. Vertical accuracy and use of topographic LIDAR data in coastal marshes. J. Coast. Res. 2011, 27(6a):116-132.
64. Schmidt P., Morrison T.H. Watershed management in an urban setting: process, scale and administration. Land Use Policy 2012, 29:45-52.
65. Shoo L.P., O'Mara J., Perhans K., Rhodes J.R., Runting R., Schmidt S., Traill L.W., Weber L.C., Wilson K.A., Lovelock C.E. Moving beyond the conceptual: specificity in regional climate change adaptation actions for biodiversity in South East Queensland, Australia. Reg. Environ. Change 2014, 14(2):435-447.
66. Spada G., Bamber J.L., Hurkmans R.T.W.L. The gravitationally consistent sea-level fingerprint of future terrestrial ice loss. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2013, 40(3):482-486.
67. Syvitski J.P.M., Kettner A.J., Overeem I., Hutton E.W.H., Hannon M.T., Brakenridge G.R., Day J., Vorosmarty C., Saito Y., Giosan L., Nicholls R.J. Sinking deltas due to human activities. Nat. Geosci. 2009, 2:681-686.
68. Tebaldi C., Strauss B.H., Zervas C.E. Modelling SLR impacts on storm surges along US coasts. Environ. Res. Lett. 2012, 7(1):014032.
69. Tornqvist T.E., Meffert D.J. Sustaining coastal urban ecosystems. Nat. Geosci. 2008, 1:805-807.
70. Tribbia J., Moser S.C. More than information: what coastal managers need to plan for climate change. Environ. Sci. Policy 2008, 11(4):315-328.
71. Vasey-Ellis N. Planning for climate change in coastal Victoria. Urban Policy Res. 2009, 27(2):157-169.
72. Waite T.A., Corey S.J., Campbell L.G., Chhangani A., Rice J., Robbins P. Satellite sleuthing: does remotely sensed land-cover change signal ecological degradation in a protected area?. Divers. Distrib. 2009, 15(2):299-309.
73. Walsh K.J.E., Betts H., Church J., Pittock A.B., MeInnes K.L., Jackett D.R., McDougall T.J. Using SLR projections for urban planning in Australia. J. Coast. Res. 2004, 20(2):586-598.
74. Walsh K.J.E., McInnes K.L., McBride J.L. Climate change impacts on tropical cyclones and extreme sea-levels in the South Pacific-a regional assessment. Glob. Planet. Change 2012, 80-81:149-164.
75. Wilson K.A. Dealing with data uncertainty in conservation planning. Natureza e conservacao 2010, 8(2):145-150.
76. Xhardé R., Long B.F., Forbes D.L. Short-Term beach and shoreface evolution on a cuspate foreland observed with airborne topographic and bathymetric LIDAR. J. Coastal Res. 2011, 50-61.
77. Yang S.L., Milliman J.D., Li P., Xu K. 50,000 dams later: erosion of the Yangtze River and its delta. Glob. Planet. Change 2011, 75:14-20.
78. Zandbergen P.A. Characterizing the error distribution of lidar elevation data for North Carolina. Int. J. Remote Sens. 2011, 32:409-430.