A perturbation approach for assessing trends in precipitation extremes across Iran

Journal of Hydrology

Volumn 519, Issue PB, 2014, Pages 1420-1427

  Tabari, Hossein ^a   AghaKouchak, Amir ^b   Willems, Patrick ^a,c  

^a UNIVERSITY OF LEUVEN   (Belgium)

^b University of California at Irvine   (United States)

^c VRIJE UNIVERSITEIT BRUSSEL   (Belgium)

Author keywords

Decadal anomaly; Extreme precipitation variability; MERRA Land data; Perturbation factor

Indexed keywords

DECADAL ANOMALY; EXTREME PRECIPITATION; MERRA-LAND DATA; PERTURBATION APPROACH; PERTURBATION FACTOR; PRECIPITATION EXTREMES;

ANOMALY; CLIMATE CONDITIONS; CLIMATE EFFECT; DECADAL VARIATION; NEW RECORD; PERTURBATION; PRECIPITATION ASSESSMENT; PRECIPITATION INTENSITY;

IRAN;

EID: 84908006640     PISSN: 00221694     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.09.019     Document Type: Article

References (49)

1. Abbaspour M., Sabetraftar A. Review of cycles and indices of drought and their effect on water resources, ecological, biological, agricultural, social and economical issues in Iran. Int. J. Environ. Stud. 2005, 62(6):709-724.
2. AghaKouchak A., Nasrollahi N. Semi-parametric and parametric inference of extreme value models for rainfall data. Water Resour. Manage. 2010, 24(6):1229-1249.
3. Alexander L.V., Zhang X., Peterson T.C., Caesar J., Gleason B., Klein Tank A.M.G., Haylock M., Collins D., Trewin B., Rahimzadeh F., Tagipour A., Ambenje P., Rupa Kumar K., Revadekar J., Griffiths G. Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. J. Geophys. Res. 2006, 111:D05109. 10.1029/2005JD006290.
4. Bosilovich M.G., Robertson F.R., Chen J. Global energy and water budgets in MERRA. J. Clim. 2011, 24(22):5721-5739.
5. Chiew, F.H.S., 2006. An overview of methods for estimating climate change impact on runoff, paper presented at the 30th Hydrol. and Water Resourc. Symp., Lauceston, Australia, 4-7 Dec., CDROM [ISBN 0- 8582579-0-4], Eng. Aust., Barton, Australian Capital Territory.
6. Damberg L., AghaKouchak A. Global trends and patterns of droughts from space. Theoret. Appl. Climatol. 2014, 117:441-448.
7. Dhorde A.G., Zarenistanak M., Kripalani R.H., Preethi B. Precipitation analysis over southwest Iran: trends and projections. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 2014, 124:205-216.
8. Di Baldassarre G., Castellarin A., Brath A. Relationships between statistics of rainfall extremes and mean annual precipitation: an application for design-storm estimation in northern central Italy. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 2006, 10(4):589-601.
9. DOE Iran's Second National Communication to the UNFCCC. National Climate Change Office 2010, Department of Environment, Tehran.
10. Endo N., Matsumoto J., Lwin T. Trends in precipitation extremes over Southeast Asia. SOLA 2009, 5:168-171.
11. Fathian, F., Morid, S., Kahya, E., 2014. Identification of trends in hydrological and climatic variables in Urmia Lake basin, Iran. Theor. Appl. Climatol. doi:10.1007/s00704-014-1120-4.
12. Frich P., Alexander L.V., Della-Marta P., Gleason B., Haylock M., Klein Tank A.M.G., Peterson T. Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century. Climate Research 2002, 19:193-212.
13. Golian S., Mazdiyasni O., AghaKouchak A. Trends in meteorological and agricultural droughts in Iran. Theoret. Appl. Climatol. 2014, 10.1007/s00704-014-1139-6.
14. Gruber, A., Levizzani, V., 2008. Assessment of Global Precipitation Products, A project of the World Climate Research Programme Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) radiation panel. WCRP Report No. 128, WMO/TD No. 1430 (50 p.).
15. Hao Z., AghaKouchak A., Nakhjiri N., Farahmand A. Global integrated drought monitoring and prediction system. Scientific Data 2014, 1(140001):1-10.
16. Harrold T.I., Chiew F.H.S., Siriwardena L. A method for estimating climate change impacts on mean and extreme rainfall and runoff. MODSIM 2005 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation 2005, 497-504. Modell. and Simul. Soc. of Aust. and N.Z., Melbourne, Victoria, Australia. A. Zerger, R.M. Argent (Eds.).
17. IPCC IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) 2007, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
18. IPCC, 2001. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC, Cambridge Univ., New York.
19. IPCC, 2013. Summary for Policymakers. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In: Stocker, T.F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S.K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., Midgley, P.M.e. (Eds.).
20. Kiktev D., Sexton D.M.H., Alexander L., Folland C.K. Comparison of modeled and observed trends in indices of daily climate extremes. J. Clim. 2003, 16(22):3560-3571.
21. Lockhoff M., Zolina O., Simmer C., Schulz J. Evaluation of satellite-retrieved extreme precipitation over Europe using gauge observations. J. Clim. 2013, 27:607-623.
22. Madani K. Water management in Iran: what is causing the looming crisis?. J. Environ. Stud. Sci. 2014, 10.1007/s13412-014-0182-z.
23. Mpelasoka F.S., Chiew F.H.S. Influence of rainfall scenario construction methods on runoff projections. J. Hydrometeorol. 2009, 10:1168-1183.
24. Nastos P.T., Kapsomenakis J., Douvis K.C. Analysis of precipitation extremes based on satellite and high-resolution gridded data set over Mediterranean basin. Atmos. Res. 2013, 131:46-59.
25. New, M., Hewitson, B., Stephenson, D.B., Tsiga, A., Kruger, A., Manhique, A., Gomez, B., Coelho, C.A.S., Masisi, D.N., Kululanga, E., Mbambalala, E., Adesina, F., Saleh, H., Kanyanga, J., Adosi, J., Bulane, L., Fortunata, L., Mdoka, M.L., Lajoie, R., 2006. Evidence of trends in daily climate extremes over southern and west Africa. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos. vol. 111(D14), . doi:10.1029/2005jd006289.
26. Ntegeka V., Willems P. Trends and multidecadal oscillations in rainfall extremes, based on a more than 100-year time series of 10min rainfall intensities at Uccle, Belgium. Water Resources Research 2008, 44. 10.1029/2007WR006471.
27. Ntegeka V., Baguis P., Roulin E., Willems P. Developing tailored climate change scenarios for hydrological impact assessments. J. Hydrol. 2014, 508(16):307-321.
28. Nyeko-Ogiramoi P., Willems P., Ngirane-Katashaya G. Trend and variability in observed hydrometeorological extremes in the Lake Victoria basin. J. Hydrol. 2013, 489:56-73.
29. Pal I., Al-Tabbaa A. Assessing seasonal precipitation trends in India using parametric and non-parametric statistical techniques. Theoret. Appl. Climatol. 2011, 103(1-2):1-11.
30. Panahi A., Alijani B., Mohammadi H. The Effect of the land use/cover changes on the floods of the Madarsu basin of northeastern Iran. J. Water Resource Prot. 2010, 2:373-379.
31. Rahimzadeh F., Asgari A., Fattahi E. Variability of extreme temperature and precipitation in Iran during recent decades. Int. J. Climatol. 2009, 29:329-343.
32. Reichle, R.H., 2012. The MERRA-Land Data Product. GMAO Office Note No. 3 (Version 1.2), 38 p. http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/pubs/office:notes.
33. Reichle R.H., Koster R.D., De Lannoy G.J.M., Forman B.A., Liu Q., Mahanama S.P.P., Toure A. Assessment and enhancement of MERRA land surface hydrology estimates. J. Clim. 2011, 24(24):6322-6338.
34. Rienecker M.M., Suarez M.J., Gelaro R., et al. MERRA: NASA's modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications. J. Clim. 2011, 24(14):3624-3648.
35. Robertson F.R., Bosilovich M.G., Chen J., Miller T.L. The effect of satellite observing system changes on MERRA water and energy fluxes. J. Clim. 2011, 24:5197-5217.
36. Sheffield J., Wood E., Roderick M. Little change in global drought over the past 60 years. Nature 2012, 491(7424):435-438.
37. Shifteh Some'e B., Ezani A., Tabari H. Spatiotemporal trends and change point of precipitation in Iran. Atmos. Res. 2012, 113:1-12.
38. Soltani S., Saboohi R., Yaghmaei L. Rainfall and rainy days trend in Iran. Climatic Change 2011, 110:187-213.
39. Sorooshian S., et al. Advanced concepts on remote sensing of precipitation at multiple scales. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 2011, 92(10):1353-1357.
40. Tabari H., Abghari H., Hosseinzadeh Talaee P. Temporal trends and spatial characteristics of drought and rainfall in arid and semiarid regions of Iran. Hydrol. Process. 2012, 26(22):3351-3361.
41. Tabari H., Aghajanloo M.B. Temporal pattern of aridity index in Iran with considering precipitation and evapotranspiration trends. Int. J. Climatol. 2013, 33:396-409.
42. Tabari H., Hosseinzadeh Talaee P. Temporal variability of precipitation over Iran: 1966-2005. J. Hydrol. 2011, 396(3-4):313-320.
43. Tabari H., Shifteh Somee B., Rezaeian Zadeh M. Testing for long-term trends in climatic variables in Iran. Atmos. Res. 2011, 100:132-140.
44. Trenberth K.E. Changes in precipitation with climate change. Climate Research 2011, 47:123-138.
45. Willems P. Multidecadal oscillatory behaviour of rainfall extremes in Europe. Climatic Change 2013, 120:931-944.
46. Willems P. Adjustment of extreme rainfall statistics accounting for multidecadal climate oscillations. J. Hydrol. 2013, 490:126-133.
47. Willems P., Vrac M. Statistical precipitation downscaling for small-scale hydrological impact investigations of climate change. J. Hydrol. 2011, 402:193-205.
48. Yatagai A., Arakawa O., Kamiguchi K., Kawamoto H., Nodzu M.I., Hamada A. A 44-year daily gridded precipitation dataset for Asia based on a dense network of rain gauges. SOLA 2009, 5:137-140.
49. Zhang X., Aguilar E., Sensoy S., Melkonyan H., Tagiyeva U., Ahmed N., Kutaladze N., Rahimzadeh F., Taghipour A., Hantosh T.H., Albert P., Semawi M., Karam Ali M., Halal Said Al-Shabibi M., Al-Oulan Z., Zatari T., Al Dean Khelet I., Hammoud S., Sagir R., Demircan M., Eken M., Adiguzel M., Alexander L., Peterson T.C., Wallis T. Trends in middle east climate extremes indices during 1930-2003. J. Geophys. Res. 2005, 110(D22):104. 10.1029/2005JD 006181.