Predicting outcome after traumatic brain injury: Development of prognostic scores based on the IMPACT and the APACHE II

Journal of Neurotrauma

Volumn 31, Issue 20, 2014, Pages 1721-1732

  Raj, Rahul ^a   Siironen, Jari ^a   Kivisaari, Riku ^a   Hernesniemi, Juha ^a   Skrifvars, Markus B ^a  

^a HELSINKI UNIVERSITY CENTRAL HOSPITAL   (Finland)

Author keywords

APACHE II; external validation; IMPACT; outcome; prognostic models; traumatic brain injury

Indexed keywords

ADULT; AGED; APACHE; AREA UNDER THE CURVE; ARTICLE; BOOTSTRAPPING; CALIBRATION; DISEASE SEVERITY; EMERGENCY HEALTH SERVICE; HUMAN; INTENSIVE CARE UNIT; INTERNATIONAL MISSION FOR PROGNOSIS AND ANALYSIS OF CLINICAL TRIAL; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; MORTALITY; NAMED INVENTORIES, QUESTIONNAIRES AND RATING SCALES; OUTCOME ASSESSMENT; PREDICTION; PROGNOSIS; RISK FACTOR; SCORING SYSTEM; TRAUMATIC BRAIN INJURY; BRAIN INJURIES; COMPARATIVE STUDY; FEMALE; GLASGOW COMA SCALE; INJURY SCALE; MALE; MIDDLE AGED; PREDICTIVE VALUE; REPRODUCIBILITY; STATISTICAL MODEL; TREATMENT OUTCOME;

ADULT; AGED; APACHE; AREA UNDER CURVE; BRAIN INJURIES; CALIBRATION; FEMALE; GLASGOW COMA SCALE; HUMANS; MALE; MIDDLE AGED; MODELS, STATISTICAL; PREDICTIVE VALUE OF TESTS; PROGNOSIS; REPRODUCIBILITY OF RESULTS; TRAUMA SEVERITY INDICES; TREATMENT OUTCOME;

EID: 84907978199     PISSN: 08977151     EISSN: 15579042     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1089/neu.2014.3361     Document Type: Article

References (44)

1. Stein, S.C., Georgoff, P., Meghan, S., Mizra, K., and Sonnad, S.S. (2010). 150 years of treating severe traumatic brain injury: a systematic review of progress in mortality. J. Neurotrauma 27, 1343-1353
2. Roozenbeek, B., Maas, A.I.R., and Menon, D.K. (2013). Changing patterns in the epidemiology of traumatic brain injury. Nat. Rev. Neurol. 9, 231-236
3. Maas, A.I.R., Steyerberg, E.W., Marmarou, A., McHugh, G.S., Lingsma, H.F., Butcher, I., Lu, J., Weir, J., Roozenbeek, B., and Murray, G.D. (2010). IMPACT recommendations for improving the design and analysis of clinical trials in moderate to severe traumatic brain injury. Neurotherapeutics 7, 127-134
4. Lingsma, H.F., Roozenbeek, B., Li, B., Lu, J., Weir, J., Butcher, I., Marmarou, A., Murray, G.D., Maas, A.I.R., and Steyerberg, E.W. (2011). Large between-center differences in outcome after moderate and severe traumatic brain injury in the international mission on prognosis and clinical trial design in traumatic brain injury (IMPACT) study. Neurosurgery 68, 601-607; discussion, 607-608
5. Hemmila, M.R., Nathens, A.B., Shafi, S., Calland, J.F., Clark, D.E., Cryer, H.G., Goble, S., Hoeft, C.J., Meredith, J.W., Neal, M.L., Pasquale, M.D., Pomphrey, M.D., and Fildes, J.J. (2010). The Trauma Quality Improvement Program: pilot study and initial demonstration of feasibility. J. Trauma 68, 253-262
6. Khuri, S.F., Daley, J., and Henderson, W.G. (2002). The comparative assessment and improvement of quality of surgical care in the Department of Veterans Affairs. Arch. Surg. 137, 20-27
7. Maas, A.I.R., Murray, G.D., Roozenbeek, B., Lingsma, H.F., Butcher, I., McHugh, G.S., Weir, J., Lu, J., and Steyerberg, E.W.; International Mission on Prognosis Analysis of Clinical Trials in Traumatic Brain Injury (IMPACT) Study Group. (2013). Advancing care for traumatic brain injury: findings from the IMPACT studies and perspectives on future research. Lancet Neurol. 12, 1200-1210
8. Stevens, R.D., and Sutter, R. (2013). Prognosis in severe brain injury. Crit. Care Med. 41, 1104-1123
9. Lingsma, H.F., Roozenbeek, B., Steyerberg, E.W., Murray, G.D., and Maas, A.I.R. (2010). Early prognosis in traumatic brain injury: from prophecies to predictions. Lancet Neurol. 9, 543-554
10. Steyerberg, E.W., Mushkudiani, N., Perel, P., Butcher, I., Lu, J., McHugh, G.S., Murray, G.D., Marmarou, A., Roberts, I., Habbema, J.D.F., and Maas, A.I.R. (2008). Predicting outcome after traumatic brain injury: development and international validation of prognostic scores based on admission characteristics. PLoS Med. 5, e165
11. Knaus, W.A., Draper, E.A., Wagner, D.P., and Zimmerman, J.E. (1985). APACHE II: a severity of disease classification system. Crit. Care Med. 13, 818-829
12. Vincent, J.-L., and Moreno, R. (2010). Clinical review: scoring systems in the critically ill. Crit. Care 14, 207
13. Maas, A.I., Murray, G., Henney, H. 3rd, Kassem, N., LeGrand, V., Mangelus, M., Muizelaar, J.P., Stocchetti, N., Knoller, N. (2006). Efficacy and safety of randomised dexanabinol in severe traumatic brain injury: Results of a phase III randomised, placebo-controlled, clinical trial. Lancet Neurol. 5, 38-45
14. Le Gall, J.-R. (2005). The use of severity scores in the intensive care unit. Intensive Care Med. 31, 1618-1623
15. Kaukonen, K.-M., Bailey, M., Suzuki, S., Pilcher, D., and Bellomo, R (2014). Mortality related to severe sepsis and septic shock among critically ill patients in Australia and New Zealand, 2000-2012.JAMA 311, 1308-1316
16. Raj, R., Skrifvars, M.B., Bendel, S., Selander, T., Kivisaari, R., Siironen, J., and Reinikainen, M. (2014). Predicting six-month mortality of patients with traumatic brain injury: usefulness of common intensive care severity scores. Crit. Care 18, R60
17. Menon, D.K., Schwab, K., Wright, D.W., and Maas, A.I.; Demographics and Clinical Assessment Working Group of the International and Interagency Initiative toward Common Data Elements for Research on Traumatic Brain Injury and Psychological Health. (2010). Position statement: definition of traumatic brain injury. Arch. Phys. Med. Rehabil. 91, 1637-1640
18. Marshall, L.F., Marshall, S.B., Klauber, M.R., and Clark, M.B. (1991). A new classification of head injury based on computerized tomography. J. Neurosurg. 75, S14-S22
19. Maas, A.I.R., Hukkelhoven, C.W.P.M., Marshall, L.F., and Steyerberg, E.W. (2005). Prediction of outcome in traumatic brain injury with computed tomographic characteristics: a comparison between the computed tomographic classification and combinations of computed tomographic predictors. Neurosurgery 57, 1173-1182; discussion, 1173-1182
20. Brain Trauma Foundation, American Association of Neurological Surgeons, Congress of Neurological Surgeons. (2007). Guidelines for the management of severe traumatic brain injury. J. Neurotrauma 24 Suppl. 1, S1-S106
21. Jennett, B., and Bond, M. (1975). Assessment of outcome after severe brain damage. Lancet 1, 480-484
22. Picard, R.R., and Berk, K.N. (1990). Data splitting. Am. Stat. 44, 140-147
23. Steyerberg, E.W., Harrell, F.E., Borsboom, G.J., Eijkemans, M.J., Vergouwe, Y., and Habbema, J.D. (2001). Internal validation of predictive models: efficiency of some procedures for logistic regression analysis. J. Clin. Epidemiol. 54, 774-781
24. Steyerberg, E.W., Vickers, A.J., Cook, N.R., Gerds, T., Gonen, M., Obuchowski, N., Pencina, M.J., and Kattan, M.W. (2010). Assessing the performance of prediction models: a framework for traditional and novel measures. Epidemiology 21, 128-138
25. David W Hosmer, Jr., Lemeshow, S., and Sturdivant, R.X. (2013). Applied Logistic Regression. John Wiley & Sons: New York
26. Seshan, V.E., Gonen, M., and Begg, C.B. (2013). Comparing ROC curves derived from regression models. Stat. Med. 32, 1483-1493
27. Pencina, M.J., D'Agostino, R.B., D'Agostino, R.B., and Vasan, R.S. (2008). Evaluating the added predictive ability of a new marker: from area under the ROC curve to reclassification and beyond. Stat. Med. 27, 157-172; discussion, 207-212
28. Lemeshow, S., and Hosmer, D.W. (1982). A review of goodness of fit statistics for use in the development of logistic regression models. Am. J. Epidemiol. 115, 92-106
29. Kramer, A.A., and Zimmerman, J.E. (2007). Assessing the calibration of mortality benchmarks in critical care: The Hosmer-Lemeshow test revisited. Crit. Care Med. 35, 2052-2056
30. Finazzi, S., Poole, D., Luciani, D., Cogo, P.E., and Bertolini, G. (2011). Calibration belt for quality-of-care assessment based on dichotomous outcomes. PLoS One 6, e16110
31. Hilden, J., Habbema, J.D., and Bjerregaard, B. (1978). The measurement of performance in probabilistic diagnosis. III. Methods based on continuous functions of the diagnostic probabilities. Methods Inf. Med. 17, 238-246
32. Robin, X., Turck, N., Hainard, A., Tiberti, N., Lisacek, F., Sanchez, J.-C., and Müller, M. (2011). pROC: an open-source package for R and S + to analyze and compare ROC curves. BMC Bioinformatics 12, 77
33. Kundu, S., Aulchenko, Y.S., van Duijn, C.M., and Janssens, A.C.J.W. (2011). PredictABEL: an R package for the assessment of risk prediction models. Eur. J. Epidemiol. 26, 261-264
34. Vassar, M.J., Lewis, F.R., Chambers, J.A., Mullins, R.J., O'Brien, P.E., Weigelt, J.A., Hoang, M.T., and Holcroft, J.W. (1999). Prediction of outcome in intensive care unit trauma patients: a multicenter study of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE), Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS), and a 24-hour intensive care unit (ICU) point system. J. Trauma 47, 324-329
35. Pouw, M.E., Peelen, L.M., Moons, K.G.M., Kalkman, C.J., and Lingsma, H.F. (2013). Including post-discharge mortality in calculation of hospital standardised mortality ratios: retrospective analysis of hospital episode statistics. BMJ 347, f5913
36. Myburgh, J.A., Cooper, D.J., Finfer, S.R., Venkatesh, B., Jones, D., Higgins, A., Bishop, N., and Higlett, T.; Australasian Traumatic Brain Injury Study (ATBIS) Investigators for the Australian, New Zealand Intensive Care Society Clinical Trials Group. (2008). Epidemiology and 12-month outcomes from traumatic brain injury in Australia and New Zealand. J. Trauma 64, 854-862
37. Shann, F. (2000). Mortality prediction model is preferable to APACHE. BMJ 320, 714
38. Maas, A.I.R., Menon, D.K., Lingsma, H.F., Pineda, J.A., Sandel, M.E., and Manley, G.T. (2012). Re-orientation of clinical research in traumatic brain injury: report of an international workshop on comparative effectiveness research. J. Neurotrauma 29, 32-46
39. Beynon, C., Kiening, K.L., Orakcioglu, B., Unterberg, A.W., and Sakowitz, O.W. (2012). Brain tissue oxygen monitoring and hyperoxic treatment in patients with traumatic brain injury. J. Neurotrauma 29, 2109-2123
40. Sanchez, J.J., Bidot, C.J., O'Phelan, K., Gajavelli, S., Yokobori, S., Olvey, S., Jagid, J., Garcia, J.A., Nemeth, Z., and Bullock, R. (2013). Neuromonitoring with microdialysis in severe traumatic brain injury patients. Acta Neurochir. Suppl. 118, 223-227
41. Papa, L., Ramia, M.M., Kelly, J.M., Burks, S.S., Pawlowicz, A., and Berger, R.P. (2013). Systematic review of clinical research on biomarkers for pediatric traumatic brain injury. J. Neurotrauma 30, 324-338
42. Marmarou, A., Lu, J., Butcher, I., McHugh, G.S., Mushkudiani, N.A., Murray, G.D., Steyerberg, E.W., and Maas, A.I.R. (2007). IMPACT database of traumatic brain injury: design and description. J. Neurotrauma 24, 239-250
43. Weir, J., Steyerberg, E.W., Butcher, I., Lu, J., Lingsma, H.F., McHugh, G.S., Roozenbeek, B., Maas, A.I.R., and Murray, G.D. (2012). Does the extended Glasgow Outcome Scale add value to the conventional Glasgow Outcome Scale? J. Neurotrauma 29, 53-58
44. Raj, R., Siironen, J., Kivisaari, R., Hernesniemi, J., Tanskanen, P., Handolin, L., and Skrifvars, M.B. (2013). External validation of the IMPACT Model and the role of markers of coagulation. Neurosurgery 73, 305-311