Match-mismatch dynamics and the relationship between ocean-entry timing and relative ocean recoveries of Central Valley fall run Chinook salmon

Marine Ecology Progress Series

Volumn 511, Issue , 2014, Pages 237-248

  Satterthwaite, William H ^a,b   Carlson, Stephanie M ^c   Allen Moran, Shanae D ^a   Vincenzi, Simone ^b   Bograd, Steven J ^a   Wells, Brian K ^a  

^a SOUTHWEST FISHERIES SCIENCE CENTER   (United States)

^b University of California Santa Cruz   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

Author keywords

Fishery; GAM; Mismatch; Phenology; Recruitment; Salmon; Survival; Timing

Indexed keywords

AGE CLASS; ARRIVAL DATE; BODY CONDITION; BODY SIZE; FISHERY MANAGEMENT; HATCHERY; LIFE CYCLE; MARINE ENVIRONMENT; PHENOLOGY; RECRUITMENT (POPULATION DYNAMICS); SALMONID; SURVIVAL; TAGGING;

CALIFORNIA; CENTRAL VALLEY [CALIFORNIA]; SAN FRANCISCO ESTUARY; UNITED STATES;

ONCORHYNCHUS TSHAWYTSCHA;

EID: 84907399391     PISSN: 01718630     EISSN: 16161599     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.3354/meps10934     Document Type: Article

References (63)

1. Barth JA, Menge BA, Lubchenco J, Chan F and others (2007) Delayed upwelling alters nearshore coastal ocean ecosystems in the northern California Current. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 104: 3719-3724
2. Beverton RJH, Holt SJ (1957) On the dynamics of exploited fish populations. Fishery Investigations Ser II Vol XIX. Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, London
3. Bilton HT, Alderdice DF, Schnute JT (1982) Influence of time at release of juvenile coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) on returns at maturity. J Fish Res Board Can 39: 426-447
4. Bilton HT, Morley RB, Coburn AS, van Tyne J (1984) The influence of time and size at release of juvenile coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) on returns at maturity; results from releases from Quinsan River Hatchery, B.C., in 1980. Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Nanaimo, BC
5. Bograd SJ, Schroeder I, Sarkar N, Qiu X, Sydeman WJ, Schwing FB (2009) Phenology of coastal upwelling in the California Current. Geophys Res Lett 36: L01602, doi:10.1029/ 2008GL035933
6. Budy P, Thiede G, Bouwes N, Petrosky CE, Schaller H (2002) Evidence linking delayed mortality of Snake River salmon to their earlier hydrosystem experience. N Am J Fish Manag 22: 35-51
7. Burke BJ, Peterson WT, Beckman BR, Morgan C, Daly EA, LitzM(2013) Multivariate models of adult Pacific salmon returns. PLoS ONE 8: e54134
8. California Hatchery Scientific Review Group (2012) California Hatchery Review Report. Prepared for the US Fish and Wildlife Service and Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission, CA
9. Croll DA, Marinovic B, Benson S, Chavez FP, Black N, Ternullo R, Tershy BR (2005) From wind to whales: trophic links in a coastal upwelling system. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 289: 117-130
10. Cushing DH (1990) Plankton production and year-class strength in fish populations: an update of the match/mismatch hypothesis. Adv Mar Biol 26: 249-293
11. Deriso RB, Maunder MN, Pearson WH (2008) Incorporating covariates into fisheries stock assessment models with application to Pacific herring. Ecol Appl 18: 1270-1286
12. Dorman JG, Powell TM, Sydeman WJ, Bograd SJ (2011) Advection and starvation cause krill (Euphausia pacifica) decreases in 2005 Northern California coastal populations: implications from a model study. Geophys Res Lett 38: L04605, doi:10.1029/2010GL046245
13. Dormann CF, Elith J, Bacher S, Buchmann C and others (2013) Collinearity: a review of methods to deal with it and a simulation study evaluating their performance. Ecography 36: 27-46
14. Graham WW, Largier JL (1997) Upwelling shadows as nearshore retention sites: the example of northern Monterey Bay. Cont Shelf Res 17: 509-532
15. Hankin DG (1990) Effects of month of release of hatcheryreared Chinook salmon on size at age, maturation schedule, and fishery contribution. Info Rep Number 90-4.
16. Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife, Portland, OR Hilborn R, Quinn TP, Schindler DE, Rogers DE (2003) Biocomplexity and fisheries sustainability. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 100: 6564-6568
17. Hjort J (1914) Fluctuations in the great fisheries of northern Europe, viewed in the light of biological research. Rapp P-V Reun Cons Int Explor Mer 20:1-228
18. Holtby LB, Andersen BC, Kadowaki RK (1990) Importance of smolt size and early ocean growth to interannual variability in marine survival of coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch). Can J Fish Aquat Sci 47: 2181-2194
19. Jacobson LD, MacCall AD (1995) Stock-recruitment models for Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax). Can J Fish Aquat Sci 52: 566-577
20. Johnson JK (1990) Regional overview of coded wire tagging of anadromous salmon and steelhead in northwest America. Am Fish Soc Symp 7: 782-816
21. Lapi L, Hamer M, Johnson B (1990) Data organization and coding for a coastwide mark-recovery data system. Am Fish Soc Symp 7: 720-724
22. Lindley ST, Grimes CB, Mohr MS, Peterson W and others (2009) What caused the Sacramento River fall Chinook stock collapse? NOAA Tech Memo NOAA-TM-NMFS-SWFSC-447
23. Logerwell EA, Mantua N, Lawson PW, Francis RC, Agostini VN (2003) Tracking environmental processes in the coastal zone for understanding and predicting Oregon coho (Oncorhynchus kisutch) marine survival. Fish Oceanogr 12: 554-568
24. McGurk MD (1996) Allometry of marine mortality of Pacific salmon. Fish Bull 94: 77-88
25. Morley RB (1988) The influence of time and size at release of juvenile coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) on returns at maturity: results of studies on three brood years at Quinsam Hatchery, B.C. Can Tech Rep Fish Aquat Sci 1620
26. Myers RA (1998) When do environment-recruitment correlations work? Rev Fish Biol Fish 8: 285-305
27. Nandor GF, Longwill JR, Webb DL (2010) Overview of the coded wire tag program in the greater Pacific region of North America. In: Wolf KS, O'Neal JS (eds) PNAMP Special Publication: tagging, telemetry and marking measures for monitoring fish populations-A compen - dium of new and recent science for use in informing technique and decision modalities. Pacific Northwest Aquatic Monitoring Partnership, Duvall, WA, p 5-46
28. O'Farrell MR, Mohr MS, Palmer-Zwahlen ML, Grover AM (2013) The Sacramento Index (SI). NOAA Tech Memo NOAA-TM-NMFS-SWFSC-512
29. Petrosky CE, Schaller HA (2010) Influence of river conditions during seaward migration and ocean conditions on survival rates of Snake River Chinook salmon and steelhead. Ecol Freshw Fish 19: 520-536
30. Quinn TP (2005) The behavior and ecology of Pacific salmon and trout. American Fisheries Society and University of Washington, Seattle, WA
31. Quinn TJ, Deriso RB (1999) Quantitative fish dynamics. Oxford University Press, New York, NY
32. R Development Core Team (2012) R: a language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna
33. Raff MS (1956) On approximating the point binomial. J Am Stat Assoc 51: 293-303
34. Ralston S, Field JC, Sakuma K (2013) Interannual variation in pelagic juvenile rockfish abundance-going with the flow. Fish Oceanogr 22: 288-308
35. Raymond HL (1979) Effects of dams and impoundments on migrations of juvenile chinook salmon and steelhead from the Snake River, 1966 to 1975. Trans Am Fish Soc 108: 505-529
36. Raymond HL (1988) Effects of hydroelectric development and fisheries enhancement on spring and summer chinook salmon and steelhead in the Columbia River Basin. N Am J Fish Manag 8: 1-24
37. Rechisky EL, Welch DW, Porter AD, Jacobs-Scott MC, Winchell PM, McKern JL (2012) Estuarine and early-marine survival of transported and in-river migrant Snake River spring Chinook salmon smolts. Sci Rep 2: 448
38. Rupp DE, Wainwright TC, Lawson PW, Peterson WT (2012) Marine environment-based forecasting of coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) adult recruitment. Fish Oceanogr 21: 1-19
39. Ryding KE, Skalski JR (1999) Multivariate regression relationships between ocean conditions and early marine survival of coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch). Can J Fish Aquat Sci 56: 2374-2384
40. Santora JA, Sydeman WJ, Schroeder ID, Wells BK, Field JC (2011) Mesoscale structure and oceanographic deter - minants of krill hotspots in the California Current: implications for trophic transfer and conservation. Prog Oceanogr 91: 397-409
41. Santora JA, Field JC, Schroeder ID, Sakuma KM, Wells BK, Sydeman WJ (2012) Spatial ecology of krill, micronekton and top predators in the central California Current: implications for defining ecologically important areas. Prog Oceanogr 106: 154-174
42. Santora JA, Schroeder ID, Field JC, Wells BK, Sydeman WJ (in press) Spatio-temporal dynamics of ocean conditions and forage taxa reveals regional structuring of seabirdprey relationships. Ecol Appl, doi: 10.1890/13-1605.1
43. Satterthwaite WH, Mohr MS, O'Farrell MR, Anderson EC and others (2014) Use of genetic stock identification data for comparison of the ocean spatial distribution, size-atage, and fishery exposure of an untagged stock and its indicator: Klamath River versus California Coastal Chinook salmon. Trans Am Fish Soc 143: 117-133
44. Scheuerell MD, Zabel RW, Sandford BP (2009) Relating juvenile migration timing and survival to adulthood in two species of threatened Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.). J Appl Ecol 46: 983-990
45. Schroeder ID, Sydeman WJ, Sarkar N, Thompson SA, Bograd SJ, Schwing FB (2009) Winter pre-conditioning of seabird phenology in the California Current. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 393: 211-223
46. Schroeder ID, Black BA, Sydeman WJ, Bograd SJ, Hazen EL, Santora JA, Wells BK (2013) The North Pacific High and wintertime pre-conditioning of California Current productivity. Geophys Res Lett 40: 541-546
47. Schwing FB, Bond NA, Bograd SJ, Mitchell T, Alexander MA, Mantua N (2006) Delayed coastal upwelling along the US West Coast in 2005: a historical perspective. Geophys Res Lett 33: L22SO1, doi:10.1029/2006GL026911
48. Shao J (1993) Linear model selection by cross-validation. J Am Stat Assoc 88: 486-494
49. Thompson SS, Sydeman WJ, Santora JA, Black BA and others (2012) Linking predators to seasonality of upwelling: using food web indicators and path analysis to infer trophic connections. Prog Oceanogr 101: 106-120
50. Tomaro LM, Teel DJ, PetersonWT, Miller JA (2012) When is bigger better? Early marine residence of middle and upper Columbia River spring Chinook salmon. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 452: 237-252
51. Ver Hoef JM, Boveng P (2007) Quasi-Poisson vs. negative binomial regression: How should we model overdispersed count data? Ecology 88: 2766-2772
52. Ward BR, Slaney PA, Facchin AR, Land RW (1989) Sizebiased survival in steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss): back-calculated lengths from adults' scales compared to migrating smolts at the Keogh River, British Columbia. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 46: 1853-1858
53. Weitkamp L, Neely K (2002) Coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) ocean migration patterns: insight from marine coded-wire tag recoveries. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 59: 1100-1115
54. Wells BK, Grimes CB, Waldvogel JB (2007) Quantifying the effects of wind, upwelling, curl, sea surface temperature and sea level height on growth and maturation of a California Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) population. Fish Oceanogr 16: 363-382
55. Wells BK, Field JC, Thayer JA, Grimes CB and others (2008) Untangling the relationships among climate, prey and top predators in an ocean ecosystem. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 364: 15-29
56. Wells BK, Santora JA, Field JC, MacFarlane RB, Marinovic BB, Sydeman WJ (2012) Population dynamics of Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha relative to prey availability in the central California coastal region. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 457: 125-137
57. Whitman RP (1987) An analysis of smoltification indices in fall chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). MS thesis, University of Washington, Seattle, WA
58. Williams JG (2006) Central Valley salmon: a perspective on Chinook and steelhead in the Central Valley of California. San Francisco Estuar Watershed Sci 4: 1-398
59. Williams JG (2008) Mitigating the effects of high-head dams on the Columbia River, USA: experience from the trenches. Hydrobiologia 609: 241-251
60. Wing SR, Botsford LW, Ralston SV, Largier JL (1998) Meroplanktonic distribution and circulation in a coastal retention zone of the northern California upwelling system. Limnol Oceanogr 43: 1710-1721
61. Wood SN (2011) Fast stable restricted maximum likelihood and marginal likelihood estimation of semiparametric generalized linear models. J R Stat Soc B 73: 3-36
62. Woodson L, Wells BK, Johnson RC, Weber P, MacFarlane RB, Whitman G (2013) Size, growth, and origin-dependent mortality of juvenile Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha during early ocean residence. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 487: 163-175
63. Zabel RW, Williams JG (2002) Selective mortality in Chinook salmon: What is the role of human disturbance? Ecol Appl 12: 173-183