Prediction of South Africa’s tourism hotel accommodation monthly income: Challenges in an environment characterised by a world recession and a world cup

Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences

Volumn 5, Issue 20, 2014, Pages 460-465

  Sigauke, C ^a   Darikwa, T B ^b   Masemola, M I ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF THE WITWATERSRAND   (South Africa)

^b UNIVERSITY OF LIMPOPO   (South Africa)

Author keywords

Exponential smoothing; Income; Lodging industry; Tourism accommodation

Indexed keywords

EID: 84907290241     PISSN: 20399340     EISSN: 20392117     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5901/mjss.2014.v5n20p460     Document Type: Article

References (25)

1. Archer, B.H. 1994. Demand forecasting and estimation. In J.R.B. Ritchie & C.R. Goeldner (Eds.), Travel, tourism and hospitality research (4th ed., pp. 105-114). New York: Wiley.
2. Athanasopoulos, G. & Hyndman, R.J. 2008. Modelling and forecasting Australian domestic tourism, Tourism Management, 29: 19-31.
3. Burger, C.J.S.C., Dohnal, M., Kathrada, M. & Law, R. 2001. A practioners’ guide to time-series methods for tourism demand forecasting-a case study of Durban, South Africa, Tourism Management, 22(4): 403-409.
4. Brown, R.G. 1959. Statistical forecasting for inventory control. New York: McGraw-Hill.
5. Chen, R.J.C., Bloomfield, P. & Cubbage, F.W. 2008. Comparing forecasting models in tourism, Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Research, 32(1): 3-21.
6. Choi, J.G. 2003. Developing an economic indicator system (a forecasting technique) for the hotel industry, International Journal of Hospitality Management, 22: 147-159.
7. Choi, J.G., Olsen, M.D., Kwansa, F.A. & Tse, E.C. 1999. ‘Forecasting industry turning points: the US hotel industry cycle model’, International Journal of Hospitality Management, 18: 159-170.
8. Cummings, L.E., Busser, J.A. 1994. Forecasting in recreation and park management: Need, substance, and reasonableness, Journal of Park and Recreation Administration, 12(1): 35-50.
9. Gardner, E.S. 2006. Exponential smoothing: The state of the art-Part II, International Journal of Forecasting, 22: 637-666.
10. Gil-Alana, L.A. 2011. Tourism in South Africa-time series persistence and the nature of shocks: are they transitory or permanent?, African Journal of Business Management, 5: 4686-4698.
11. Holt, C.C. 1957. Forecasting seasonals and trends by exponentially weighted moving averages. ONR Memorandum, vol. 52. Pittsburgh, PA7 Carnegie Institute of Technology.
12. Hyndman, R.J., Koehler, A.B., Snyder, R.D. & Grose, S. 2002. ‘A state space framework for automatic forecasting using exponential smoothing methods’. International Journal of Forecasting, 18: 439-454.
13. Hyndman, R.J., Koehler, A.B., Ord, J.K. & Snyder, R.D. (2008). Forecasting with Exponential Smoothing: The State Space Approach. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Heidelberg
14. Koenig, N. & Bischoff, E.E. 2004a. Tourism demand patterns in turbulent times: analysing Welsh accommodation occupancy rate for 1998-2001, International Journal of Tourism Research, 6,:205-220.
15. Koenig, N. & Bischoff, E.E. 2004b. Analyzing seasonality in Welsh room occupancy data. Annals of Tourism Research, 31: 374-392.
16. Krakover, S. 2000. Partitioning seasonal employment in the hospitality industry, Tourism Management, 21: 461-471.
17. Law, R. (1998). Room occupancy rate forecasting: a neural network approach, International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management, 10: 234-239.
18. Lim, C., Chang, C. & McAleer, M. 2009. ‘Forecasting h(m)otel guest nights in New Zealand’, International Journal of Hospitality Management, 28: 228-235.
19. Lundberg, D., Drishnamoorthy, M. & Stavenga, M. 1995. Tourism Economics, Wiley, New York.
20. Palmer, A., Montano, J.J. & Sese, A. 2006. Designing an Artificial neural network for Forecasting Tourism Time Series. Tourism Management, 27: 781-790.
21. Sorenson, N. 1999. Modelling the seasonality of hotel nights in Denmark by county and Nationality, Tourism Economics, 5: 9-23.
22. Winters, P.R. 1960. Forecasting sales by exponentially weighted moving averages, Management Science, 6: 324-342.
23. http://www.info.gov.za/whitepapers/1996/tourism.htm Online Accessed 3-12-2011.
24. http://www.tourismrsa.com Online Accessed 4-12-2011.
25. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tourism_in_South_Africa Online Accessed 8-01-2012.