메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 18, Issue 9, 2014, Pages 3411-3428

Alternative configurations of quantile regression for estimating predictive uncertainty in water level forecasts for the upper Severn River: A comparison

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

FORECASTING; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; WATER LEVELS; WATER RESOURCES;

EID: 84906991499     PISSN: 10275606     EISSN: 16077938     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5194/hess-18-3411-2014     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (44)

References (53)
  • 1
    • 0019727657 scopus 로고
    • Forecasting for floods in the Severn catchment
    • Bailey, R. and Dobson, C.: Forecasting for floods in the Severn catchment, J. Inst. Water Engrs Sci., 35, 168-178, 1981.
    • (1981) J. Inst. Water Engrs Sci , vol.35 , pp. 168-178
    • Bailey, R.1    Dobson, C.2
  • 2
    • 79960687550 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multiscale error analysis, correction, and predictive uncertainty estimation in a flood forecasting system
    • Bogner, K. and Pappenberger, F.: Multiscale error analysis, correction, and predictive uncertainty estimation in a flood forecasting system, Water Resour. Res., 47, W07524, doi:10.1029/2010WR009137, 2011.
    • (2011) Water Resour. Res , vol.47
    • Bogner, K.1    Pappenberger, F.2
  • 3
    • 84859317568 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Technical Note: The normal quantile transformation and its application in a flood forecasting system
    • Bogner, K. and Pappenberger, F.: Technical Note: The normal quantile transformation and its application in a flood forecasting system, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1085-1094, doi:10.5194/hess- 16-1085-2012, 2012.
    • (2012) Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci , vol.16 , pp. 1085-1094
    • Bogner, K.1    Pappenberger, F.2
  • 4
    • 78651310251 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Noncrossing Quantile Regression curve estimation
    • Bondell, H. D., Reich, B. J., and Wang, H.: Noncrossing Quantile Regression curve estimation, Biometrika, 97, 825-838, doi:10.1093/biomet/asq048, 2010.
    • (2010) Biometrika , vol.97 , pp. 825-838
    • Bondell, H.D.1    Reich, B.J.2    Wang, H.3
  • 5
    • 1842483168 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic forecasts of precipitation in terms of quantiles using nwp model output
    • Bremnes, J. B.: Probabilistic Forecasts of Precipitation in Terms of Quantiles Using NWP Model Output, Mon. Weather Rev., 132, 338-347, doi:10.1175/1520- 0493(2004)132<0338:PFOPIT>2.0.CO;2, 2004.
    • (2004) Mon. Weather Rev , vol.132 , pp. 338-347
    • Bremnes, J.B.1
  • 6
    • 0003010182 scopus 로고
    • Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability
    • Brier, G.: Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability, Mon. Weather Rev., 78, 1-3, 1950.
    • (1950) Mon. Weather Rev , vol.78 , pp. 1-3
    • Brier, G.1
  • 8
    • 77949571388 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Ensemble Verification System (EVS): A software tool for verifying ensemble forecasts of hydrometeorological and hydrologic variables at discrete locations
    • Brown, J. D., Demargne, J., Seo, D.-J., and Liu, Y.: The Ensemble Verification System (EVS): A software tool for verifying ensemble forecasts of hydrometeorological and hydrologic variables at discrete locations, Environ. Modell. Softw., 25, 854-872, 2010.
    • (2010) Environ. Modell. Softw , vol.25 , pp. 854-872
    • Brown, J.D.1    Demargne, J.2    Seo, D.-J.3    Liu, Y.4
  • 9
    • 69349101904 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ensemble flood forecasting: A review
    • Cloke, H. and Pappenberger, F.: Ensemble flood forecasting: a review, J. Hydrol., 375, 613-626, 2009.
    • (2009) J. Hydrol , vol.375 , pp. 613-626
    • Cloke, H.1    Pappenberger, F.2
  • 11
    • 84891032465 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic flood forecasting and decision-making: An innovative risk-based approach
    • Dale, M., Wicks, J., Mylne, K., Pappenberger, F., Laeger, S., and Taylor, S.: Probabilistic flood forecasting and decision-making: an innovative risk-based approach, Nat. Hazards, 70, 159-172, 2014.
    • (2014) Nat. Hazards , vol.70 , pp. 159-172
    • Dale, M.1    Wicks, J.2    Mylne, K.3    Pappenberger, F.4    Laeger, S.5    Taylor, S.6
  • 13
    • 84906998336 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predicting model uncertainty using quantile regression and UNEEC methods and their comparison on contrasting catchments
    • submitted
    • Dogulu, N.,López, P., Solomatine, D. P., Weerts, A. H., and Shrestha, D. L.: Predicting model uncertainty using quantile regression and UNEEC methods and their comparison on contrasting catchments, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., submitted, 2014.
    • (2014) Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci
    • Dogulu, N.1    López, P.2    Solomatine, D.P.3    Weerts, A.H.4    Shrestha, D.L.5
  • 14
    • 84906998335 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • last access: 1 October 2013
    • EA: Environment Agency: River levels: Midlands, available at: http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/floods/riverlevels/, last access: 1 October 2013.
    • River Levels: Midlands
  • 15
    • 20444484849 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Calibrated probabilistic forecasting using ensemble Model Output Statistics and minimum CRPS estimation
    • Gneiting, T., Raftery, A., Westveld, A., and Goldman, T.: Calibrated probabilistic forecasting using ensemble Model Output Statistics and minimum CRPS estimation, Mon. Weather Rev., 133, 1098-1118, 2005.
    • (2005) Mon. Weather Rev , vol.133 , pp. 1098-1118
    • Gneiting, T.1    Raftery, A.2    Westveld, A.3    Goldman, T.4
  • 20
    • 0000273843 scopus 로고
    • Regression quantiles
    • Koenker, R. and Bassett Jr., G.: Regression Quantiles, Econometrica, 1, 33-50, 1978.
    • (1978) Econometrica , vol.1 , pp. 33-50
    • Koenker, R.1    Bassett, G.2
  • 22
    • 0035426007 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The case for probabilistic forecasting in hydrology
    • Krzysztofowicz, R.: The case for probabilistic forecasting in hydrology, J. Hydrol., 249, 2-9, 2001.
    • (2001) J. Hydrol , vol.249 , pp. 2-9
    • Krzysztofowicz, R.1
  • 23
    • 0033735880 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Hydrologic Uncertainty Processor for probabilistic river stage forecasting
    • Krzysztofowicz, R. and Kelly, K.: Hydrologic Uncertainty Processor for probabilistic river stage forecasting, Water Resour. Res., 36, 3265-3277, doi:10.1029/2000WR900108, 2000.
    • (2000) Water Resour. Res , vol.36 , pp. 3265-3277
    • Krzysztofowicz, R.1    Kelly, K.2
  • 25
    • 0016961866 scopus 로고
    • Scoring rules for continuous probability distributions
    • Matheson, J. E. and Winkler, R. L.: Scoring rules for continuous probability distributions, Manage. Sci., 22, 1087-1096, doi:10.1287/mnsc.22.10.1087, 1976.
    • (1976) Manage. Sci , vol.22 , pp. 1087-1096
    • Matheson, J.E.1    Winkler, R.L.2
  • 26
    • 26844488641 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Deseasonalisation of hydrological time series through the Normal Quantile Transform
    • Montanari, A.: Deseasonalisation of hydrological time series through the Normal Quantile Transform, J. Hydrol., 313, 274-282, 2005.
    • (2005) J. Hydrol , vol.313 , pp. 274-282
    • Montanari, A.1
  • 27
    • 2542555104 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A stochastic approach for assessing the uncertainty of rainfall-runoff simulations
    • Montanari, A. and Brath, A.: A stochastic approach for assessing the uncertainty of rainfall-runoff simulations, Water Resour. Res., 40, W01106, doi:10.1029/2003WR002540, 2004.
    • (2004) Water Resour. Res , vol.40
    • Montanari, A.1    Brath, A.2
  • 28
    • 0027706813 scopus 로고
    • What is a good forecast? An essay on the nature of goodness in weather forecasting
    • Murphy, A.: What is a good forecast? An essay on the nature of goodness in weather forecasting, Weather Forecast., 8, 281-293, 1993.
    • (1993) Weather Forecast , vol.8 , pp. 281-293
    • Murphy, A.1
  • 29
    • 33244496469 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Using Quantile Regression to extend an existing wind power forecasting system with probabilistic forecasts
    • Nielsen, H. A., Madsen, H., and Nielsen, T. S.: Using Quantile Regression to extend an existing wind power forecasting system with probabilistic forecasts, Wind Energy, 9, 95-108, 2006.
    • (2006) Wind Energy , vol.9 , pp. 95-108
    • Nielsen, H.A.1    Madsen, H.2    Nielsen, T.S.3
  • 31
    • 20444497873 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Using Bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles
    • Raftery, A. E., Gneiting, T., Balabdaoui, F., Polakowski, M.: Using Bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles, Mon. Weather Rev., 133, 1155-1174, 2005.
    • (2005) Mon. Weather Rev , vol.133 , pp. 1155-1174
    • Raftery, A.E.1    Gneiting, T.2    Balabdaoui, F.3    Polakowski, M.4
  • 32
    • 84883034759 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Do probabilistic forecasts lead to better decisions?
    • Ramos, M. H., van Andel, S. J., and Pappenberger, F.: Do probabilistic forecasts lead to better decisions?, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2219-2232, doi:10.5194/hess-17-2219-2013, 2013.
    • (2013) Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci , vol.17 , pp. 2219-2232
    • Ramos, M.H.1    Van Andel, S.J.2    Pappenberger, F.3
  • 33
    • 84906998334 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • R code software, (last access: 1 October 2013), NC State 20 University Department of Statistics (NCSU Statistics), North Carolina, USA
    • R code software: available at: http://www4.stat.ncsu.edu/~bondell/software.html (last access: 1 October 2013), NC State 20 University Department of Statistics (NCSU Statistics), North Carolina, USA, 2010.
    • (2010)
  • 34
    • 84863304598 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria
    • R Core Team: R: a Language and Environment for Statistical Computing, available at: http://www.R-project.org/, R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria, 2013.
    • (2013) R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing
  • 35
    • 62949204448 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Uncertainty assessment via Bayesian revision of ensemble streamflow predictions in the operational river Rhine forecasting system
    • Reggiani, P., Renner, M., Weerts, A., and Van Gelder, P.: Uncertainty assessment via Bayesian revision of ensemble streamflow predictions in the operational river Rhine forecasting system, Water Resour. Res., 45, W02428, doi:10.1029/2007WR006758, 2009.
    • (2009) Water Resour. Res , vol.45
    • Reggiani, P.1    Renner, M.2    Weerts, A.3    Van Gelder, P.4
  • 36
    • 84880015692 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Short-term ensemble streamflow forecasting using operationally-produced single-valued streamflow forecasts - A Hydrologic Model Output Statistics (HMOS) approach
    • Regonda, S. K., Seo, D.-J., Lawrence, B., Brown, J. D., and Demargne, J.: Short-term ensemble streamflow forecasting using operationally-produced single-valued streamflow forecasts - A Hydrologic Model Output Statistics (HMOS) approach, J. Hydrol., 497, 80-96, 2013.
    • (2013) J. Hydrol , vol.497 , pp. 80-96
    • Regonda, S.K.1    Seo, D.-J.2    Lawrence, B.3    Brown, J.D.4    Demargne, J.5
  • 37
    • 84874339646 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimation of the uncertainty in water level forecasts at ungauged river locations using Quantile Regression
    • Roscoe, K. L., Weerts, A. H., and Schroevers, M.: Estimation of the uncertainty in water level forecasts at ungauged river locations using Quantile Regression, Int. J. River Basin Manage., 10, 383- 394, 2012.
    • (2012) Int. J. River Basin Manage , vol.10 , pp. 383-394
    • Roscoe, K.L.1    Weerts, A.H.2    Schroevers, M.3
  • 38
    • 79952180750 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The use of MOGREPS ensemble rainfall forecasts in operational flood forecasting systems across England and Wales
    • Schellekens, J., Weerts, A. H., Moore, R. J., Pierce, C. E., and Hildon, S.: The use of MOGREPS ensemble rainfall forecasts in operational flood forecasting systems across England and Wales, Adv. Geosci., 29, 77-84, doi:10.5194/adgeo-29-77-2011, 2011.
    • (2011) Adv. Geosci , vol.29 , pp. 77-84
    • Schellekens, J.1    Weerts, A.H.2    Moore, R.J.3    Pierce, C.E.4    Hildon, S.5
  • 40
    • 84856608113 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A statistical postprocessor for accounting of hydrologic uncertainty in short-range ensemble streamflow prediction
    • Seo, D.-J., Herr, H. D., and Schaake, J. C.: A statistical postprocessor for accounting of hydrologic uncertainty in short-range ensemble streamflow prediction, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 3, 1987-2035, doi:10.5194/hessd-3-1987-2006, 2006.
    • (2006) Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss , vol.3 , pp. 1987-2035
    • Seo, D.-J.1    Herr, H.D.2    Schaake, J.C.3
  • 41
    • 84903819265 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting flash floods using data-based mechanistic models and NORA radar rainfall forecasts
    • Smith, P. J., Panziera, L., and Beven, K. J.: Forecasting flash floods using data-based mechanistic models and NORA radar rainfall forecasts, Hydrol. Sci. J., 1-15, 1403-1417, doi:10.1080/02626667.2013.842647, 2014.
    • (2014) Hydrol. Sci. J , vol.1-15 , pp. 1403-1417
    • Smith, P.J.1    Panziera, L.2    Beven, K.J.3
  • 42
    • 72149087074 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A novel method to estimate model uncertainty using machine learning techniques
    • Solomatine, D. P. and Shrestha, D. L.: A novel method to estimate model uncertainty using machine learning techniques, Water Resour. Res., 45, W00B11, doi:10.1029/2008WR006839, 2009.
    • (2009) Water Resour. Res , vol.45
    • Solomatine, D.P.1    Shrestha, D.L.2
  • 43
    • 66049147497 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A model conditional processor to assess predictive uncertainty in flood forecasting
    • Todini, E.: A model conditional processor to assess predictive uncertainty in flood forecasting, Int. J. River Basin Manage., 6, 123-137, 2008.
    • (2008) Int. J. River Basin Manage , vol.6 , pp. 123-137
    • Todini, E.1
  • 44
    • 84871407564 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Post-processing hydrological ensemble predictions intercomparison experiment
    • van Andel, S. J., Weerts, A., Schaake, J., and Bogner, K.: Post-processing hydrological ensemble predictions intercomparison experiment, Hydrol. Process., 27, 158-161, doi:10.1002/hyp.9595, 2013.
    • (2013) Hydrol. Process , vol.27 , pp. 158-161
    • Van Andel, S.J.1    Weerts, A.2    Schaake, J.3    Bogner, K.4
  • 45
    • 84858080665 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A non-parametric data-based approach for probabilistic flood forecasting in support of uncertainty communication
    • Van Steenbergen, N., Ronsyn, J., andWillems, P.: A non-parametric data-based approach for probabilistic flood forecasting in support of uncertainty communication, Environ. Modell. Softw., 33, 92- 105, 2012.
    • (2012) Environ. Modell. Softw , vol.33 , pp. 92-105
    • Van Steenbergen, N.1    Ronsyn, J.2    Willems, P.3
  • 46
    • 84906998333 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic flood forecasting (Environment Agency)
    • 16-20 April 2012, University of East Anglia, Norwich
    • Vaughan, M.: Probabilistic flood forecasting (Environment Agency), 85th European Study Group with Industry, 16-20 April 2012, University of East Anglia, Norwich, 2012.
    • (2012) 85th European Study Group with Industry
    • Vaughan, M.1
  • 47
    • 84055212539 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimating the benefits of single value and probability forecasting for flood warning
    • Verkade, J. S. and Werner, M. G. F.: Estimating the benefits of single value and probability forecasting for flood warning, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 3751-3765, doi:10.5194/hess-15-3751- 2011, 2011.
    • (2011) Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci , vol.15 , pp. 3751-3765
    • Verkade, J.S.1    Werner, M.G.F.2
  • 48
    • 84882956988 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Post-processing ECMWF precipitation and temperature ensemble reforecasts for operational hydrologic forecasting at various spatial scales
    • Verkade, J. S., Brown, J., Reggiani, P., and Weerts, A.: Post-processing ECMWF precipitation and temperature ensemble reforecasts for operational hydrologic forecasting at various spatial scales, J. Hydrol., 501, 73-91, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.07.039, 2013.
    • (2013) J. Hydrol , vol.501 , pp. 73-91
    • Verkade, J.S.1    Brown, J.2    Reggiani, P.3    Weerts, A.4
  • 50
    • 84906998332 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Wallingford, (last access: 1 October 2013), HR Wallingford, Hydraluic Unit, Wallingford, UK
    • Wallingford: HR Wallingford, ISIS software, available at: http://www.isisuser.com/isis/ (last access: 1 October 2013), HR Wallingford, Hydraluic Unit, Wallingford, UK, 1997..
    • (1997) HR Wallingford, ISIS Software
  • 51
    • 79251520672 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimation of predictive hydrological uncertainty using quantile regression: Examples from the National Flood Forecasting System (England and Wales)
    • Weerts, A. H., Winsemius, H. C., and Verkade, J. S.: Estimation of predictive hydrological uncertainty using quantile regression: examples from the National Flood Forecasting System (England and Wales), Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 255-265, doi:10.5194/hess-15-255-2011, 2011.
    • (2011) Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci , vol.15 , pp. 255-265
    • Weerts, A.H.1    Winsemius, H.C.2    Verkade, J.S.3


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.