Detecting disease outbreaks in mass gatherings using internet data

Journal of Medical Internet Research

Volumn 16, Issue 6, 2014, Pages

  Yom Tov, Elad ^a   Borsa, Diana ^b   Cox, Ingemar J ^b,c   McKendry, Rachel A ^b  

^a MICROSOFT RESEARCH   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON   (United Kingdom)

^c UNIVERSITY OF COPENHAGEN   (Denmark)

Author keywords

Data mining; Infectious disease; Infodemiology; Information retrieval; Mass gatherings

Indexed keywords

COMMUNICABLE DISEASES; DATA MINING; EPIDEMIC; HEALTH SURVEY; HUMAN; INFORMATION PROCESSING; INFORMATION SEEKING; INTERNET; MASS BEHAVIOR; MUSIC; PROCEDURES; RECREATION; SAUDI ARABIA; SEARCH ENGINE; UNITED KINGDOM;

COMMUNICABLE DISEASES; DATA COLLECTION; DATA MINING; DISEASE OUTBREAKS; GREAT BRITAIN; HUMANS; INFORMATION SEEKING BEHAVIOR; INTERNET; MASS BEHAVIOR; MUSIC; PUBLIC HEALTH SURVEILLANCE; RECREATION; SAUDI ARABIA; SEARCH ENGINE;

EID: 84906243474     PISSN: None     EISSN: 14388871     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.2196/jmir.3156     Document Type: Article

References (46)

1. Perry RD, Fetherston JD. Yersinia pestis-etiologic agent of plague. Clin Microbiol Rev 1997 Jan;10(1):35-66 [FREE Full text] [Medline: 8993858]
2. Johnson NP, Mueller J. Updating the accounts: global mortality of the 1918-1920 "Spanish" influenza pandemic. Bull Hist Med 2002;76(1):105-115. [Medline: 11875246]
3. Cabinet Office National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies 2012 Edition. URL: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-risk-register-for- civil-emergencies-2012-update [accessed 2014-06-06] [WebCite Cache ID 6Q79v6EPN]
4. Global Report: UNAIDS report on the global AIDS epidemic 2013. URL: http://www.unaids.org/en/resources/campaigns/globalreport2013/index.html [accessed 2014-06-06] [WebCite Cache ID 6Q7A04zh2]
5. Grundmann H, Aires-de-Sousa M, Boyce J, Tiemersma E. Emergence and resurgence of meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus as a public-health threat. Lancet 2006 Sep 2;368(9538):874-885. [doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(06)68853- 3] [Medline: 16950365]
6. Parkin DM. The global health burden of infection-Associated cancers in the year 2002. Int J Cancer 2006 Jun 15;118(12):3030-3044. [doi: 10.1002/ijc.21731] [Medline: 16404738]
7. Davies SC. Infections and the rise of antimicrobial resistance. 2011. URL: http://antibiotic-Action.com/resources/chief-medical-officer-Annual-report- volume-two-201-infections-And-The-rise-of-Antimicrobial-resistance/[accessed 2014-06-05] [WebCite Cache ID 6Q7ADsur0]
8. German RR, Lee LM, Horan JM, Milstein RL, Pertowski CA, Waller MN, Guidelines Working Group Centers for Disease Control Prevention (CDC). Updated guidelines for evaluating public health surveillance systems: recommendations from the Guidelines Working Group. MMWR Recomm Rep 2001 Jul 27;50(RR-13):1-35; quiz CE1. [Medline: 18634202]
9. May L, Chretien JP, Pavlin JA. Beyond traditional surveillance: applying syndromic surveillance to developing settings-opportunities and challenges. BMC Public Health 2009;9:242 [FREE Full text] [doi: 10.1186/1471-2458-9-242] [Medline: 19607669]
10. Welliver RC, Cherry JD, Boyer KM, Deseda-Tous JE, Krause PJ, Dudley JP, et al. Sales of nonprescription cold remedies: a unique method of influenza surveillance. Pediatr Res 1979 Sep;13(9):1015-1017. [Medline: 503653]
11. Wagner MM, Tsui FC, Espino JU, Dato VM, Sittig DF, Caruana RA, et al. The emerging science of very early detection of disease outbreaks. J Public Health Manag Pract 2001 Nov;7(6):51-59. [Medline: 11710168]
12. Barbeschi M, Healing T. World Health Organization. 2008. Communicable disease alert and response for mass gatherings: Key considerations URL: http://www.who.int/csr/Mass-gatherings2.pdf [accessed 2014-06-05] [WebCite Cache ID 6Q7AIIRht]
13. Donkin H. The Cholera and Hagar's Well at Mecca. The Lancet 1883 Aug;122(3128):256-257. [doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(02)35905-1]
14. Morgan D, Gunneberg C, Gunnell D, Healing TD, Lamerton S, Soltanpoor N, et al. An outbreak of Campylobacter infection associated with the consumption of unpasteurised milk at a large festival in England. Eur J Epidemiol 1994 Oct;10(5):581-585. [Medline: 7859858]
15. Gutiérrez I, Litzroth A, Hammadi S, Van Oyen H, Gerard C, Robesyn E, et al. Community transmission of influenza A (H1N1)v virus at a rock festival in Belgium, 2-5 July 2009. Euro Surveill 2009 Aug 6;14(31):1 [FREE Full text] [Medline: 19660245]
16. Loncarevic G, Payne L, Kon P, Petrovic V, Dimitrijevic D, Knezevic T, et al. Public health preparedness for two mass gathering events in the context of pandemic influenza (H1N1) 2009 - Serbia, July 2009. Eurosurveillance 2009;14(31):A4 1-A4 3. [Medline: 19660246]
17. Botelho-Nevers E, Gautret P, Benarous L, Charrel R, Felkai P, Parola P. Travel-related influenza A/H1N1 infection at a rock festival in Hungary: one virus may hide another one. J Travel Med 2010;17(3):197-198. [doi: 10.1111/j.1708-8305.2010.00410.x] [Medline: 20536890]
18. Johnson HA, Wagner MM, Hogan WR, Chapman W, Olszewski RT, Dowling J, et al. Analysis of Web access logs for surveillance of influenza. Stud Health Technol Inform 2004;107(Pt 2):1202-1206. [Medline: 15361003]
19. Eysenbach G. Infodemiology: Tracking flu-related searches on the Web for syndromic surveillance. AMIA Annual Symposium Proceedings 2006:244-248. [Medline: 17238340]
20. Mykhalovskiy E, Weir L. The Global Public Health Intelligence Network and early warning outbreak detection: a Canadian contribution to global public health. Can J Public Health 2006;97(1):42-44. [Medline: 16512327]
21. Collier N, Kawazoe A, Jin L, Shigematsu M, Dien D, Barrero RA, et al. A multilingual ontology for infectious disease surveillance: rationale, design and challenges. Lang Resources & Evaluation 2007 Jun 26;40(3-4):405-413. [doi: 10.1007/s10579-007-9019-7]
22. Collier N, Doan S, Kawazoe A, Goodwin RM, Conway M, Tateno Y, et al. BioCaster: detecting public health rumors with a Web-based text mining system. Bioinformatics 2008 Dec 15;24(24):2940-2941 [FREE Full text] [doi: 10.1093/bioinformatics/btn534] [Medline: 18922806]
23. Tolentino H, Kamadjeu R, Fontelo P, Liu F, Matters M, Pollack M, et al. Scanning the emerging infectious diseases horizon-visualizing ProMED emails using EpiSPIDER. Advances in Disease Surveillance 2007;2:169.
24. Brownstein JS, Freifeld CC, Madoff LC. Digital disease detection-harnessing the Web for public health surveillance. N Engl J Med 2009 May 21;360(21):2153-2157 [FREE Full text] [doi: 10.1056/NEJMp0900702] [Medline: 19423867]
25. Freifeld CC, Mandl KD, Reis BY, Brownstein JS. HealthMap: global infectious disease monitoring through automated classification and visualization of Internet media reports. J Am Med Inform Assoc 2008;15(2):150-157 [FREE Full text] [doi: 10.1197/jamia.M2544] [Medline: 18096908]
26. Keller M, Blench M, Tolentino H, Freifeld CC, Mandl KD, Mawudeku A, et al. Use of unstructured event-based reports for global infectious disease surveillance. Emerg Infect Dis 2009 May;15(5):689-695 [FREE Full text] [doi: 10.3201/eid1505.081114] [Medline: 19402953]
27. Lyon A, Nunn M, Grossel G, Burgman M. Comparison of Web-based biosecurity intelligence systems: BioCaster, EpiSPIDER and HealthMap. Transbound Emerg Dis 2012 Jun;59(3):223-232. [doi: 10.1111/j.1865-1682.2011.01258.x] [Medline: 22182229]
28. Polgreen PM, Chen Y, Pennock DM, Nelson FD. Using Internet searches for influenza surveillance. Clin Infect Dis 2008 Dec 1;47(11):1443-1448 [FREE Full text] [doi: 10.1086/593098] [Medline: 18954267]
29. Ginsberg J, Mohebbi MH, Patel RS, Brammer L, Smolinski MS, Brilliant L. Detecting influenza epidemics using search engine query data. Nature 2009 Feb 19;457(7232):1012-1014. [doi: 10.1038/nature07634] [Medline: 19020500]
30. Carneiro HA, Mylonakis E. Google Trends: a Web-based tool for real-time surveillance of disease outbreaks. Clin Infect Dis 2009 Nov 15;49(10):1557-1564 [FREE Full text] [doi: 10.1086/630200] [Medline: 19845471]
31. Corley CD, Cook DJ, Mikler AR, Singh KP. Text and structural data mining of influenza mentions in Web and social media. Int J Environ Res Public Health 2010 Feb;7(2):596-615 [FREE Full text] [doi: 10.3390/ijerph7020596] [Medline: 20616993]
32. Corley CD, Mikler AR, Singh KP, Cook DJ. Monitoring influenza trends through mining social media. 2009 Presented at: International Conference on Bioinformatics and Computational Biology; July 2009; Las Vegas, NV p. 340-346.
33. Lampos V, Cristianini N. Tracking the flu pandemic by monitoring the social web. 2010 Presented at: Cognitive Information Processing (CIP); 14-16 June 2010; Elba, Italy p. 411-416. [doi: 10.1109/CIP.2010.5604088]
34. Lampos V, De Bie T, Cristianini N. Flu detector-tracking epidemics on Twitter. 2010 Presented at: Machine Learning and Knowledge Discovery in Databases; 2010; Barcelona, Spain p. 599-602.
35. Culotta A. Towards detecting influenza epidemics by analyzing Twitter messages. In: Proceedings of the First Workshop on Social Media Analytics. 2010 Presented at: The 16th ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining; 2010; Washington DC, District of Columbia p. 115-122. [doi: 10.1145/1964858.1964874]
36. Chew C, Eysenbach G. Pandemics in the age of Twitter: content analysis of Tweets during the 2009 H1N1 outbreak. PLoS One 2010;5(11):e14118 [FREE Full text] [doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0014118] [Medline: 21124761]
37. Signorini A, Segre AM, Polgreen PM. The use of Twitter to track levels of disease activity and public concern in the U.S. during the influenza A H1N1 pandemic. PLoS One 2011;6(5):e19467 [FREE Full text] [doi: 10.1371/journal.pone. 0019467] [Medline: 21573238]
38. Culotta A. Lightweight methods to estimate influenza rates and alcohol sales volume from Twitter messages. Lang Resources & Evaluation 2012 May 13;47(1):217-238. [doi: 10.1007/s10579-012-9185-0]
39. de Quincey E, Kostkova P. Early warning and outbreak detection using social networking websites: The potential of Twitter. In: Electronic Healthcare. Berlin: Springer; 2010:21-24.
40. Szomszor M, Kostkova P, De Quincey E. #swineflu: Twitter predicts swine flu outbreak in 2009. : Electronic Healthcare; 2010 Dec Presented at: eHealth; 13-15 December 2010; Casablanca, Morocco. [doi: 10.1007/978-3-642-23635-8-3]
41. Porter MF. An algorithm for suffix stripping. Program: electronic library and information systems 1980;14(3):130-137. [doi: 10.1108/eb046814]
42. Yom-Tov E, Gabrilovich E. Postmarket drug surveillance without trial costs: discovery of adverse drug reactions through large-scale analysis of web search queries. J Med Internet Res 2013;15(6):e124 [FREE Full text] [doi: 10.2196/jmir.2614] [Medline: 23778053]
43. Sartwell PE. The distribution of incubation periods of infectious disease. Am J Epidemiol 1950 May;51(3):310-318. [Medline: 15413610]
44. Benjamini Y, Hochberg Y. Controlling the False Discovery Rate - a new and powerful approach to multiple testing. J Roy Stat Soc B 1995;57(1):289-300. [doi: 10.2307/2346101]
45. Moore A, Cooper G, Wagner M. WSARE: What's strange about recent events? J Urban Health 2003;80(1):i66-i75. [doi: 10.1007/PL00022317]
46. Pelleg D, Yom-Tov E, Maarek Y. Can you believe an anonymous contributor? On truthfulness in Yahoo! Answers. 2012 Presented at: ASE/IEEE International Conference on Social Computing; 3-6 September 2012; Amsterdam, The Netherlands p. 411-420. [doi: 10.1109/SocialCom-PASSAT.2012.13]