Examining Ontario's universal influenza immunization program with a multi-strain dynamic model

Vaccine

Volumn 32, Issue 39, 2014, Pages 5098-5117

  Thommes, E W ^a,b   Chit, A ^c,d   Meier, G C ^e   Bauch, C T ^b,f  

^a GLAXOSMITHKLINE   (Canada)

^b UNIVERSITY OF GUELPH   (Canada)

^c Sanofi Pasteur   (Canada)

^d UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO   (Canada)

^e GSK   (Belgium)

^f UNIVERSITY OF WATERLOO   (Canada)

Author keywords

Canada; Dynamic transmission model; Influenza; Ontario; TIV; Universal vaccination

Indexed keywords

INFLUENZA VACCINE;

ADOLESCENT; ADULT; AGED; ARTICLE; CANADA; CHILD; COMPARATIVE STUDY; CONTROLLED STUDY; FEMALE; HUMAN; INFANT; INFLUENZA VACCINATION; INFLUENZA VIRUS; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; MATHEMATICAL MODEL; OUTCOME ASSESSMENT; PREVENTIVE HEALTH SERVICE; PRIORITY JOURNAL; SEASONAL INFLUENZA; VIRUS STRAIN; VIRUS TRANSMISSION; INFLUENZA VIRUS A H1N1; INFLUENZA VIRUS A H3N2; INFLUENZA VIRUS B; INFLUENZA, HUMAN; THEORETICAL MODEL;

HUMANS; IMMUNIZATION PROGRAMS; INFLUENZA A VIRUS, H1N1 SUBTYPE; INFLUENZA A VIRUS, H3N2 SUBTYPE; INFLUENZA B VIRUS; INFLUENZA VACCINES; INFLUENZA, HUMAN; MODELS, THEORETICAL; ONTARIO;

EID: 84906100403     PISSN: 0264410X     EISSN: 18732518     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2014.06.005     Document Type: Article

References (39)

1. Neuzil K.M., Hohlbein C., Zhu Y. Illness among schoolchildren during influenza season: effect on school absenteeism, parental absenteeism from work, and secondary illness in families. Arch Pediatr Adolescent Med 2002, 156(10):986.
2. Kwong J.C., Stukel T.A., Lim J., et al. The effect of universal influenza immunization on mortality and health care use. PLoS Med 2008 Oct 28, 5(10):e211.
3. Longini I.M., Halloran M.E., Nizam A., Yang Y. Containing pandemic influenza with antiviral agents. Am J Epidemiol 2004, 159(7):623-633.
4. Vynnycky E., Edmunds W.J. Analyses of the 1957 (Asian) influenza pandemic in the United Kingdom and the impact of school closures. Epidemiol Infect 2008, 136(2):166-179.
5. Lambert L.C., Fauci A.S. Influenza vaccines for the future. New Engl J Med 2010, 363(21):2036-2044.
6. Vynnycky E., Pitman R., Siddiqui R., Gay N., Edmunds W.J. Estimating the impact of childhood influenza vaccination programmes in England and Wales. Vaccine 2008 Sep 26, 26(41):5321-5330.
7. Pitman R.J., White L.J., Sculpher M. Estimating the clinical impact of introducing paediatric influenza vaccination in England and Wales. Vaccine 2012, 30(6):1208-1224.
8. Marjoram P., Molitor J., Plagnol V., Tavar S. Markov chain Monte Carlo without likelihoods. Proc Nat Acad Sci USA 2003, 100(26):15324-15328.
9. May R., Anderson R.M. Infectious diseases of humans: dynamics and control 1991, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
10. Cox N.J., Bender C.A. The molecular epidemiology of influenza viruses. Semin Virol 1995 Dec, 6(6):359-370.
11. Dushoff J., Plotkin J.B., Levin S.A., Earn D.J.D. Dynamical resonance can account for seasonality of influenza epidemics. Proc Nat Acad Sci USA 2004, 101(48):16915-16916.
12. Finkenstadt B.F., Morton A., Rand D.A. Modelling antigenic drift in weekly flu incidence. Stat Med 2005 Nov 30, 24(22):3447-3461.
13. Van de Velde N., Brisson M., Boily M.C. Modeling human papillomavirus vaccine effectiveness: quantifying the impact of parameter uncertainty. Am J Epidemiol 2007 Apr 1, 165(7):762-775.
14. Tully S.P., Anonychuk A.M., Sanchez D.M., Galvani A.P., Bauch C.T. Time for change? An economic evaluation of integrated cervical screening and HPV immunization programs in Canada. Vaccine 2012, 30(2):425-435.
15. Blower S.M., Dowlatabadi H. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of complex models of disease transmission: an HIV model, as an example. Int Stat Rev/Rev Int Stat 1994, 229-243.
16. Molinari N.A., Ortega-Sanchez I.R., Messonnier M.L., et al. The annual impact of seasonal influenza in the US: measuring disease burden and costs. Vaccine 2007, 25(27):5086-5096.
17. Chowell G., Miller M.A., Viboud C. Seasonal influenza in the United States, France, and Australia: transmission and prospects for control. Epidemiol Infect 2008, 136(06):852-864.
18. Nishiura H., Chowell G. The effective reproduction number as a prelude to statistical estimation of time-dependent epidemic trends. Mathematical and statistical estimation approaches in epidemiology 2009, 103-121. Springer, The Netherlands. G. Chowell, J. Hyman, Bettencourt Ls, C. Castillo-Chavez (Eds.).
19. Truscott J., Fraser C., Hinsley W., et al. Quantifying the transmissibility of human influenza and its seasonal variation in temperate regions. PLoS Curr 2009, 1.
20. Dushoff J., Plotkin J.B., Viboud C., et al. Vaccinating to protect a vulnerable subpopulation. PLoS Med 2007, 4(5):e174.
21. Weycker D., Edelsberg J., Elizabeth Halloran M., et al. Population-wide benefits of routine vaccination of children against influenza. Vaccine 2005, 23(10):1284-1293.
22. Medlock J., Galvani A.P. Optimizing influenza vaccine distribution. Science 2009, 325(5948):1705-1708.
23. Mossong Jl, Hens N., Jit M., et al. Social contacts and mixing patterns relevant to the spread of infectious diseases. PLoS Med 2008, 5(3):e74.
24. Zagheni E., Billari F.C., Manfredi P., Melegaro A., Mossong J., Edmunds W.J. Using time-use data to parameterize models for the spread of close-contact infectious diseases. Am J Epidemiol 2008, 168(9):1082-1090.
25. Castillo-Chavez C., Hethcote H.W., Andreasen V., Levin S.A., Liu W.M. Epidemiological models with age structure, proportionate mixing, and cross-immunity,. J Math Biol 1989, 27(3):233-258.
26. Patrozou E., Mermel L.A. Does influenza transmission occur from asymptomatic infection or prior to symptom onset?. Public Health Rep 2009, 124(2):193-196.
27. Belshe R.B. The need for quadrivalent vaccine against seasonal influenza. Vaccine 2010, 28 Suppl(4):D45-D53.
28. Belshe R.B., Gruber W.C., Mendelman P.M., et al. Efficacy of vaccination with live attenuated, cold-adapted, trivalent, intranasal influenza virus vaccine against a variant (A/Sydney) not contained in the vaccine. J Pediatr 2000, 136(2):168-175.
29. Turner D., Wailoo A., Nicholson K., Cooper N., Sutton A., Abrams K. Systematic review and economic decision modelling for the prevention and treatment of influenza A and B. Health Technol Assess 2003, 7(35):1. (iii-xiii).
30. Reed C., Meltzer M.I., Finelli L., Fiore A. Public health impact of including two lineages of influenza B in a quadrivalent seasonal influenza vaccine. Vaccine 2012, 30(11):1993-1998.
31. Fiore A.E., Uyeki T.M., Broder K., et al. Prevention and control of influenza with vaccines: recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP), 2010. MMWR recommendations and reports: morbidity and mortality weekly report recommendations and reports/centers for disease control 59(RR-8) 2010, 1.
32. Carrat F., Vergu E., Ferguson N.M., et al. Time lines of infection and disease in human influenza: a review of volunteer challenge studies. Am J Epidemiol 2008 Apr 1, 167(7):775-785.
33. Tricco A.C., Chit A., Soobiah C., et al. Comparing influenza vaccine efficacy against mismatched and matched strains: a systematic review and meta-analysis. BMC Med 2013, 11(1):153.
34. Jefferson T., Di Pietrantonj C., Al-Ansary L.A., Ferroni E., Thorning S., Thomas R.E. Vaccines for preventing influenza in the elderly. Cochrane Lib 2010.
35. Jefferson T., Rivetti A., Harnden A., Di Pietrantonj C., Demicheli V. Vaccines for preventing influenza in healthy children. Cochrane Lib 2008.
36. Jimenez-Jorge S., de Mateo S., Delgado-Sanz C., et al. Effectiveness of influenza vaccine against laboratory-confirmed influenza, in the late 2011-2012 season in Spain, among population targeted for vaccination. BMC Infect Dis 2013, 13(1):441.
37. Palese P. Making better influenza virus vaccines?. Emerg Infect Dis 2006, 12(1):61.
38. Ambrose C.S., Levin M.J. The rationale for quadrivalent influenza vaccines. Hum Vaccin Immunother 2012 Jan, 8(1):81-88.
39. Campitelli M.A., Inoue M., Calzavara A.J., Kwong J.C., Guttmann A. Low rates of influenza immunization in young children under Ontario's universal influenza immunization program. Pediatrics 2012, 129(6):e1421-e1430.