Changes in conducting foresight in Japan

Institutional and Technological Change in Japan's Economy: Past and Present

Volumn , Issue , 2005, Pages 188-205

  Cuhls, Kerstin ^a  

^a FRAUNHOFER INSTITUTE FOR SYSTEMS AND INNOVATION RESEARCH ISI   (Germany)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 84906009267     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book    
DOI: 10.4324/9780203028018     Document Type: Chapter

References (58)

1. Ben R. Martin, 'Foresight in Science and Technology', Technology Analysis and Strategic Management 7, 2, 1995.
2. Joseph F. Coates, 'Foresight in Federal Government Policymaking', Futures Research Quarterly, Summer 1985, p. 30.
3. John Irvine and Ben R. Martin, Foresight in Science: Picking the Winners (London: Pinter, 1984).
4. Kerstin Cuhls, 'Opening up Foresight Processes: Participation and Networking', Économies et Sociétés (Paris: Cahiers de L'Ismea, 2000).
5. Kerstin Cuhls, 'Participative foresight-How to Involve Stakeholders in the Modelling Process', in Future Directions of Innovation Policy in Europe, Proceedings of the Innovation Policy Workshop held in Brussels July 2002 by the Innovation Policy Unit of the European Commission (Brussels: Directorate-General Enterprise, 2002).
6. Kerstin Cuhls, Technikvoraus schau in Japan: ein Rückblick auf 30 Jahre DelphiExpertenbefragungen (Heidelberg: Physica, 1998);
7. Kerstin Cuhls, 'Opening up Foresight Processes';
8. Ben R. Martin and Ron Johnston, 'Technology Foresight for Wiring Up the National Innovation System: Experiences in Britain, Australia and New Zealand', in Hariolf Grupp (ed.), Special Issue on National Foresight Projects for Technological Forecasting and Social Change 60, 1999.
9. Kerstin Cuhls, Knut Blind and Hariolf Grupp (eds), Delphi 98 Umfrage: Zukunft nachgefragt Studie zur globalen Entwicklung von Wissenschaft und Technik (Karlsruhe: ISI, 1998);
10. Kerstin Cuhls, Knut Blind and Hariolf Grupp, Innovations for our Future: Delphi '98: New Foresight on Science and Technology, Technology, Innovation and Policy, Book Series of the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI no.13 (Heidelberg: Physica, 2002).
11. For 'strategic' or 'distributed' intelligence, see Stefan Kuhlmann, Patries Boekholt, Luke Georghiou, Ken Guy, Jean-Alain Héraud, Philippe Laredo, Tarmo Lemola, Denis Loveridge, Terttu Lukkonen, Wolfgang Polt, Arie Rip, Luis Sanz-Menendez, Ruud Smits 'Improving Distributed Intelligence in Complex Innovation Systems', Final Report of the Advanced Science and Technology Policy Planning Network (ASTPP), (Karlsruhe: ISI, 1999).
12. Barend van der Meulen, Jan De Wilt and Jan Rutten, 'Developing a Future for Agriculture in the Netherlands', in special issue of Journal of Forecasting edited by Cuhls and Salo, 22, 2003.
13. Andreas Fink, Oliver Schlake and Andreas Siebe, Erfolg durch Szenario-Management: Prinzip und Werkzeuge der strategischen Vorausschau (Frankfurt: Campus, 2001).
14. For an overview see Harold A. Linstone, Decision Making for Technology Executives: Using Multiple Perspectives to Improve Performance (Boston, MA: Artech House 1999);
15. Karlheinz Steinmüller, Beiträge zu Grundfragen der Zukunftsforschung (Gelsenkirchen: Werkstattbericht des Sekretariats für Zukunftsforschung 2/95, 1995).
16. See also Ossip K. Flechtheim, Futurologie: Möglichkeiten und Grenzen (Frankfurt am Main: Edition Voltaire, 1968);
17. Olaf Helmer, Analysis of the Future: the Delphi Method (Santa Monica, CA: Rand Corporation, 1967);
18. Olaf Helmer, Social Technology (Los Angeles, CA: Rand Corporation, 1966).
19. For example Dennis L. Meadows, Donella H. Meadows, E. Zahn and P. Milling, Die Grenzen des Wachstums (German edition of The Limits to Growth; Stuttgart: DVA, 1972);
20. Jay Wright Forrester, Der teuflische Regelkreis: das Globalmodell der Menschheitskrise (Stuttgart: DVA, 1971) or Industrial Dynamics (Boston, MA: MIT Press, 1961).
21. For a more detailed differentiation see Kerstin Cuhls, 'From Forecasting to Foresight processes-New Participative Foresight Activities in Germany', in special issue of Journal of Forecasting, edited by Cuhls and Salo, 22, 2003.
22. Cuhls, 'From Forecasting to Foresight processes';
23. Coates, 'Foresight in Federal Government Policymaking'.
24. Cuhls, Technikvorausschau in Japan.
25. Steinmüller, Beiträge zu Grundfragen der Zukunftsforschung;
26. Irvine and Martin, Foresight in Science.
27. Helmer, Analysis of the Future.
28. For details see Cuhls, Technikvorausschau in Japan
29. also Kerstin Cuhls and Terutaka Kuwahara Outlook for Japanese and German Future Technology, Comparing Technology Forecast Surveys (Heidelberg: Physica, 1994).
30. Fred Woudenberg, 'An Evaluation of Delphi', Technological Forecasting and Social Change 40, 1991, p.132.
31. Alan Kaplan, A.L. Skogstad and M.A. Girshick, 'The Prediction of Social and Technological Events', Public Opinion Quarterly XIV, 1950, p. 94.
32. Herbert W. Parke and Donald Ernest Wilson Wormell, The Delphic Oracle (Oxford: Basil Blackwell, 1956).
33. Compare Harold A. Linstone and Murray Turoff (eds), The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications (Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1975);
34. Joseph P. Martino, Technological Forecasting for Decision Making (New York: North Holland c.1983);
35. Erich Jantsch, Technological Forecasting in Perspective (Paris: OECD, 1967);
36. Cuhls, Technikvorausschau in Japan.
37. Theodore J. Gordon and Olaf Helmer, Report on a Long-Range Forecasting Study (Santa Monica, CA: Rand Corporation, 1964).
38. NISTEP, Science and Technology Foresight Centre, MEXT, Kagaku Gijutsu no ChUchoki Hatten ni kakawaru Fukanteki Yosoku Chosa (Interim Report, Survey Material no.105, Tokyo, June 2004).
39. Cuhls and Kuwahara Outlook for Japanese and German Future Technology;
40. Kerstin Cuhls, Sibylle Breiner and Hariolf Grupp, Delphi-Bericht 1995 zur Entwicklung von Wissenschaft und Technik-Mini-Delphi (Karlsruhe: ISI, 1995), later appearing as brochure of the Federal Ministry for Research and Education, BMBF (Bonn: BMBF, 1996); NISTEP, 6th Technology Foresight;
41. Cuhls, Blind and Grupp, Delphi '98 Umfrage.
42. Cuhls and Kuwahara, Outlook for Japanese and German Future Technology.
43. See www.futur.de. For more details on previous foresight studies see earlier work by Cuhls for an evaluation.
44. See also Kerstin Cuhls and Luke Georghiou, 'Evaluating a participative foresight process: Futur - the German research dialogue', Research Evaluation, 13, 3, December 2004;
45. or Kerstin Cuhls, 'Development and Perspectives of Foresight in Germany', in Institut für Technikfolgenabschätzung und Systemanalyse (ITAS) (eds), Technikfolgenabschätzung. Theorie und Praxis, 12, 2, Karlsruhe, 2003, pp. 20-29.
46. For these recent developments see Cuhls, 'Future Trends in Science and Technology'
47. or Cuhls, 'From Forecasting to Foresight processes'.
48. See www.nistep.go.jp
49. For an overview see Cuhls, Technikvorausschau in Japan; Kerstin Cuhls, 'Foresight with Delphi Surveys in Japan', Technology Analysis and Strategic Management 13, 4, December 2001.
50. Kerstin Cuhls, 'Interesse an Technik in Japan', Internationale Forschungs-, Technologie-und Innovationspolitik (ITB-Berichte, March 1999).
51. Anonymous, 'White Paper on Nuclear Energy', STA Today, 7, 11, 1995, p. 3 (concerning the Atomic Energy Commission (ed.): White Paper on Nuclear Energy, 1995 Edition, Tokyo, 1995).
52. Ezra F. Vogel, Japan as Number One: Lessons for America (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1979);
53. Karel van Wolferen, The Enigma of Japanese Power (Vom Mythos der Unbesiegbaren, German Version, München: Droemer Knaur, 1989);
54. Marvin J. Wolf, The Japanese Conspiracy: their Plot to Dominate Industry Worldwide, and how to Deal with it (New York: Empire Books, 1983).
55. Also Chalmers Johnson, MITI and the Japanese Miracle: the Growth of Industrial Policy 1925-1975 (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1982) for the Japan Inc. theory.
56. Satoru Kondo, R&D Senryaku Ritsuan no tame no 'Gijutsu Yosoku' Katsuyo Gaido Bukku (Tokyo: Urban Produce, 1993)
57. for other countries like Germany see Cuhls, Blind and Grupp, Innovations for our Future.
58. Cuhls and Georghiou, 'Evaluating a participative foresight process: Futur-the German research dialogue'.