Modelling the impact of improving screening and treatment of chronic hepatitis C virus infection on future hepatocellular carcinoma rates and liver-related mortality

BMC Gastroenterology

Volumn 14, Issue 1, 2014, Pages

  Cramp, Matthew E ^a   Rosenberg, William M ^b   Ryder, Steven D ^c   Blach, Sarah ^d   Parkes, Julie ^e  

^a DERRIFORD HOSPITAL   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON   (United Kingdom)

^c NOTTINGHAM UNIVERSITY HOSPITALS NHS TRUST   (United Kingdom)

^d Center for Disease Analysis   (United States)

^e UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHAMPTON   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Cirrhosis; Decompensated cirrhosis; Hepatitis C virus; Hepatocellular carcinoma

Indexed keywords

ANTIVIRUS AGENT; DIRECTLY ACTING ANTIVIRAL; PEGINTERFERON; RIBAVIRIN; UNCLASSIFIED DRUG;

AGE DISTRIBUTION; ARTICLE; CLINICAL ASSESSMENT; CONTROLLED STUDY; DECOMPENSATED LIVER CIRRHOSIS; HEPATITIS C; HUMAN; LIVER CELL CARCINOMA; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; MORTALITY; PREVALENCE; RNA ANALYSIS; SCREENING TEST; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; UNITED KINGDOM; VIREMIA; VIRUS IDENTIFICATION; ADOLESCENT; ADULT; AGED; CARCINOMA, HEPATOCELLULAR; CHILD; COMPLICATION; FEMALE; HEPATITIS C, CHRONIC; INFANT; LIVER CIRRHOSIS; LIVER NEOPLASMS; MALE; MASS SCREENING; MIDDLE AGED; NEWBORN; PRESCHOOL CHILD; STATISTICAL MODEL; VERY ELDERLY; VIRUS LOAD; YOUNG ADULT;

ADOLESCENT; ADULT; AGED; AGED, 80 AND OVER; ANTIVIRAL AGENTS; CARCINOMA, HEPATOCELLULAR; CHILD; CHILD, PRESCHOOL; ENGLAND; FEMALE; HEPATITIS C, CHRONIC; HUMANS; INFANT; INFANT, NEWBORN; LIVER CIRRHOSIS; LIVER NEOPLASMS; MALE; MASS SCREENING; MIDDLE AGED; MODELS, STATISTICAL; VIRAL LOAD; YOUNG ADULT;

EID: 84905721150     PISSN: None     EISSN: 1471230X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1186/1471-230X-14-137     Document Type: Article

References (44)

1. Poynard T, Bedossa P, Opolon P. Natural history of liver fibrosis progression in patients with chronic hepatitis C. Lancet 1997, 349(9055):825-832.
2. Perz JF, Armstrong GL, Farrington LA, Hutin YJ, Bell BP. The contributions of hepatitis B virus and hepatitis C virus infections to cirrhosis and primary liver cancer worldwide. J Hepatol 2006, 45(4):529-538.
3. Freeman AJ, Dore GJ, Law MG, Thorpe M, Von Overbeck J, Lloyd AR, Marinos G, Kaldor JM. Estimating progression to cirrhosis in chronic hepatitis C virus infection. Hepatology 2001, 34(4):809-816.
4. Public Health England, Health Protection Scotland, Public Health Wales, HSC Public Health Agency Hepatitis C in the UK: 2013 Report. [http://www.hpa.org.uk/webc/HPAwebFile/HPAweb_C/1317139502302], Public Health England, Health Protection Scotland, Public Health Wales, HSC Public Health Agency.
5. van der Meer AJ, Veldt BJ, Feld JJ, Wedemeyer H, Dufour JF, Lammert F, Duarte-Rojo A, Heathcote J, Manns MP, Kuske L, Zeuzem S, Hofmann WP, Knegt RJD, Hansen BE, Janssen HLA. Association between sustained virological response and all-cause mortality among patients with chronic hepatitis C and advanced hepatic fibrosis. JAMA 2012, 308(24):2584-2593.
6. Singal AG, Volk ML, Jensen D, Di Bisceglie AM, Schoenfeld PS. A sustained viral response is associated with reduced liver-related morbidity and mortality in patients with hepatitis C virus. Clin Gastroenterol Hepatol 2010, 8(3):280-288. e281.
7. Morgan RL, Baack B, Smith BD, Yartel A, Pitasi M, Falck-Ytter Y. Eradication of hepatitis C virus infection and the development of hepatocellular carcinoma: a meta-analysis of observational studies. Ann Intern Med 2013, 158(5_Part_1):329-337.
8. European Association For The Study Of The Liver EASL clinical practice guidelines: management of hepatitis C virus infection. J Hepatol 2014, 60(2):392-420. European Association For The Study Of The Liver.
9. Ramachandran P, Fraser A, Agarwal K, Austin A, Brown A, Foster G, Fox R, Hayes P, Leen C, Mills P. UK consensus guidelines for the use of the protease inhibitors boceprevir and telaprevir in genotype 1 chronic hepatitis C infected patients. Aliment Pharmacol Ther 2012, 35(6):647-662.
10. Lange CM, Jacobson IM, Rice CM, Zeuzem S. Emerging therapies for the treatment of hepatitis C. EMBO Mol Med 2014, 6(1):4-15.
11. Asselah T, Marcellin P. Interferon free therapy with direct acting antivirals for HCV. Liver Int 2013, 33(s1):93-104.
12. Afdhal N, Zeuzem S, Schooley R, Thomas D, Ward J, Litwin A, Razavi H, Castera L, Poynard T, Muir A. The new paradigm of hepatitis C therapy: integration of oral therapies into best practices. J Viral Hepat 2013, 20(11):745-760.
13. Irving W, Smith S, Cater R, Pugh S, Neal K, Coupland C, Ryder S, Thomson B, Pringle M, Bicknell M. Clinical pathways for patients with newly diagnosed hepatitis C-what actually happens. J Viral Hepat 2006, 13(4):264-271.
14. McGowan CE, Fried MW. Barriers to hepatitis C treatment. Liver Int 2012, 32(s1):151-156.
15. McGowan CE, Monis A, Bacon BR, Mallolas J, Goncales FL, Goulis I, Poordad F, Afdhal N, Zeuzem S, Piratvisuth T, Marcellin P, Fried MW. A global view of hepatitis C: physician knowledge, opinions, and perceived barriers to care. Hepatology 2013, 57(4):1325-1332.
16. Parkes J, Roderick P, Bennett-Lloyd B, Rosenberg W. Variation in hepatitis C services may lead to inequity of heath-care provision: a survey of the organisation and delivery of services in the United Kingdom. BMC Public Health 2006, 6(1):3.
17. Harris M, Rhodes T. Hepatitis C treatment access and uptake for people who inject drugs: a review mapping the role of social factors. Harm Reduct J 2013, 10(1):7.
18. Khaw F-M, Stobbart L, Murtagh MJ. 'I just keep thinking I haven't got it because I'm not yellow': a qualitative study of the factors that influence the uptake of hepatitis C testing by prisoners. BMC Public Health 2007, 7(1):98.
19. Kirwan P, Evans B, Brant L. Hepatitis C and B testing in English prisons is low but increasing. J Public Health 2011, 33(2):197-204.
20. Iversen J, Grebely J, Topp L, Wand H, Dore G, Maher L. Uptake of hepatitis C treatment among people who inject drugs attending needle and syringe programs in Australia, 1999-2011. J Viral Hepat 2014, 21(3):198-207.
21. Razavi H, Elkhoury AC, Elbasha E, Estes C, Pasini K, Poynard T, Kumar R. Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) disease burden and cost in the United States. Hepatology 2013, 57(6):2164-2170.
22. Razavi H, Waked I, Sarrazin C, Myers RP, Idilman R, Calinas F, Vogel W, Mendes Correa MC, He´zode C, La´zaro P, Akarca U, Aleman S, Bali{dotless}k T, Berg T, Bihl F, Bilodeau M, Blasco AJ, Brandão Mello CE, Bruggmann P, Buti M, Calleja JL, Cheinquer H, Christensen PB, Clausen M, Coelho HSM, Cramp ME, Dore GJ, Doss W, Duberg AS, El-Sayed MH, et al. The present and future disease burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection with today's treatment paradigm. J Viral Hepat 2014, 21:34-59.
23. Office for National Statistics Cancer registration statistics, England, 2012. Table 8: Registrations of newly diagnosed cases of cancer, 1995-2012. [http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/vsob1/cancer-statistics-registrations--england--series-mb1-/no--43--2012/stb-cancer-registrations-2012.html], Office for National Statistics.
24. Office for National Statistics Historical cancer database, England, 1971-1989. Table 3: Registrations of newly diagnosed cases of cancer. [http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/publications/re-reference-tables.html?edition=tcm%3A77-262496], Office for National Statistics.
25. United Nations: Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I: Comprehensive Tables. [http://esa.un.org/wpp/documentation/pdf/WPP2010_Volume-I_Comprehensive-Tables.pdf], United Nations: Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division.
26. Office for National Statistics 2011 Census - population and household estimates for England and Wales, March 2011. [http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_270487.pdf], Office for National Statistics.
27. Harris RJ, Ramsay M, Hope VD, Brant L, Hickman M, Foster GR, De Angelis D. Hepatitis C prevalence in England remains low and varies by ethnicity: an updated evidence synthesis. Eur J Public Health 2012, 22(2):187-192.
28. Health Protection Agency Sentinel surveillance of hepatitis testing in England - hepatitis C testing 2010 report analyses of HCV testing data between 2007 and 2010. [http://www.hpa.org.uk/webc/HPAwebFile/HPAweb_C/1313155286634], Health Protection Agency.
29. McEwan P, Yuan Y, Kim R. Estimating the incidence and prevalence of hepatitis c infection in England using backprojection methods. J Hepatol 2011, 54:S363-S534.
30. Health Protection Agency, Health Protection Scotland, Public Health Wales, Public Health Agency Northern Ireland Shooting Up: infections among people who inject drugs in the United Kingdom 2011. [http://www.hpa.org.uk/webc/HPAwebFile/HPAweb_C/1317136882198], Health Protection Agency, Health Protection Scotland, Public Health Wales, Public Health Agency Northern Ireland.
31. The Human Mortality Database. [http://www.mortality.org/].
32. Engstrom A, Adamsson C, Allebeck P, Rydberg U. Mortality in patients with substance abuse: a follow-up in Stockholm County, 1973-1984. Subst Use Misuse 1991, 26(1):91-106.
33. Oppenheimer E, Tobutt C, Taylor C, Andrew T. Death and survival in a cohort of heroin addicts from London clinics: a 22-year follow-up study. Addiction 1994, 89(10):1299-1308.
34. Hickman M, Carnwath MZ, Madden MP, Farrell M, Rooney C, Ashcroft R, Judd MA, Stimson G. Drug-related mortality and fatal overdose risk: pilot cohort study of heroin users recruited from specialist drug treatment sites in London. J Urban Health 2003, 80(2):274-287.
35. Perucci CA, Davoli M, Rapiti E, Abeni DD, Forastiere F. Mortality of intravenous drug users in Rome: a cohort study. Am J Public Health 1991, 81(10):1307-1310.
36. Frischer M, Goldberg D, Rahman M, Berney LEE. Mortality and survival among a cohort of drug injectors in Glasgow, 1982-1994. Addiction 1997, 92(4):419-427.
37. Bjornaas M, Bekken A, Ojlert A, Haldorsen T, Jacobsen D, Rostrup M, Ekeberg O. A 20-year prospective study of mortality and causes of death among hospitalized opioid addicts in Oslo. BMC Psychiatry 2008, 8(1):8.
38. Health Protection Agency Hepatitis C laboratory reports by region, England and Wales, 1992 - 2010. [http://www.hpa.org.uk/Topics/InfectiousDiseases/InfectionsAZ/HepatitisC/EpidemiologicalData/hepcLabRegion/], Health Protection Agency.
39. Department of Health The NHS Outcomes Framework 2013/14. [https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/213055/121109-NHS-Outcomes-Framework-2013-14.pdf], Department of Health.
40. Aleman S, Rahbin N, Weiland O, Davidsdottir L, Hedenstierna M, Rose N, Verbaan H, Sta˚l P, Carlsson T, Norrgren H. A risk for hepatocellular carcinoma persists long-term after sustained virologic response in patients with hepatitis C-associated liver cirrhosis. Clin Infect Dis 2013, 57(2):230-236.
41. Aspinall EJ, Corson S, Doyle JS, Grebely J, Hutchinson SJ, Dore GJ, Goldberg DJ, Hellard ME. Treatment of hepatitis C virus infection among people who are actively injecting drugs: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Clin Infect Dis 2013, 57(suppl 2):S80-S89.
42. El Khoury AC, Wallace C, Klimack WK, Razavi H. Economic burden of hepatitis C-associated diseases: Europe, Asia Pacific, and the Americas. J Med Econ 2012, 15(5):887-896.
43. Corkery J, Claridge H, Loi B, Goodair C, Schifano F. Drug-related deaths in the UK: January-December 2012 2013, London: International Centre for Drug Policy (ICDP), St George's, University of London.
44. The National Offender Management Service, NHS England, Public Health England National partnership agreement between: the National Offender Management Service, NHS England and Public Health England for the co-commissioning and delivery of healthcare services in prisons in England 2013. [http://www.justice.gov.uk/downloads/about/noms/work-with-partners/national-partnership-agreement-commissioning-delivery-healthcare-prisons2013.pdf], The National Offender Management Service, NHS England, Public Health England.