Integrating intensity-duration-based rainfall threshold and antecedent rainfall-based probability estimate towards generating early warning for rainfall-induced landslides in parts of the Garhwal Himalaya, India

Landslides

Volumn 11, Issue 4, 2014, Pages 575-588

  Mathew, John ^a   Babu, D Giri ^a   Kundu, S ^b   Kumar, K Vinod ^a   Pant, C C ^b  

^a INDIAN SPACE RESEARCH ORGANISATION   (India)

^b KUMAUN UNIVERSITY   (India)

Author keywords

Binary logistic regression; Early warning; Intensity duration threshold; TMPA; TRMM

Indexed keywords

LANDSLIDES; RAIN GAGES; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; SLOPE PROTECTION;

BINARY LOGISTIC REGRESSION; EARLY WARNING; INTENSITY-DURATION THRESHOLD; TMPA; TRMM;

RAIN;

EID: 84905595239     PISSN: 1612510X     EISSN: 16125118     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10346-013-0408-2     Document Type: Article

References (81)

1. Akcali E, Arman H, Firat S, Saltabas L, Gunduz Z (2010) Rainfall thresholds for the initiation of landslides in Trabzon province of Turkey. Int J Eng Appl Sci 2(4): 14-26.
2. Aleotti P (2004) A warning system of rainfall-induced shallow failure. Eng Geol 73: 247-265.
3. Aleotti P, Baldelli P, Bellardone G, Quaranta N, Tresso F, Troisi C, Zani A (2002) Soil slips triggered by October 13-16, 2000 flooding event in the Piedmont region (North West Italy): critical analysis of rainfall data. Geologia Tecnica e Ambientale 1: 15-25.
4. Andermann C, Bonnet S, Gloaguen R (2011) Evaluation of precipitation data sets along the Himalayan front. Geochem Geophys Geosyst 12(7): Q07023. doi: 10. 1029/2011GC003513.
5. Atkinson PM, Massari R (1998) Generalised linear modelling of susceptibility to landsliding in the Central Apennines, Italy. Comput Geosci 24(4): 373-385.
6. Ayalew L, Yamagishi H (2005) The application of GIS-based logistic regression for landslide susceptibility mapping in the Kakuda-Yahiko Mountains, Central Japan. Geomorphology 65(1): 15-31.
7. Bacchini M, Zannoni A (2003) Relations between rainfall and triggering of debris-flow: a case study of Cancia (dolomites, northeastern Italy). Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 3: 71-79.
8. Barros AP, Kim G, Williams E, Nesbitt SW (2004) Probing orographic controls in the Himalayas during the monsoon using satellite imagery. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 4(1): 29-51.
9. Baum RL, Godt JW (2010) Early warning of rainfall-induced shallow landslides and debris flows in the USA. Landslides 7(3): 259-272.
10. Baum RL, Godt JW, Harp EL, McKenna JP, McMullen SR (2005) Early warning of landslides for rail traffic between Seattle and Everett, Washington, USA. In: Hungr O, Fell R, Couture R et al. (eds) Landslide risk management. A. A. Balkema, New York, pp 731-740.
11. Baum RL, Godt JW, Savage WZ (2010) Estimating the timing and location of shallow rainfall-induced landslides using a model for transient, unsaturated infiltration. J Geophys Res 115: 3013. doi: 10. 1029/2009JF001321.
12. Bhatt BC, Nakamura K (2005) Characteristics of monsoon rainfall around the Himalayas revealed by TRMM precipitation radar. Mon Weather Rev 133(1): 149-165.
13. Caine N (1980) The rainfall intensity-duration control of shallow landslides and debris flows. Geogr Ann 62A: 23-27.
14. Campbell RH (1975) Soil slips, debris flows, and rainstorms in the Santa Monica Mountains and vicinity, Southern California. US Geol Surv Prof Pap 851: 1-20.
15. Cannon SH (1988) Regional rainfall-threshold conditions for abundant debris-flow activity. In: Ellen SD, Wieczorek GF (eds) Landslides, floods, and marine effects of the storm of January 3-5, 1982, in the San Francisco Bay region, California. U. S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1434. USGS, Washington, DC.
16. Capparelli G, Tiranti D (2010) Application of the MoniFLaIR early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides in Piedmont region (Italy). Landslides 7(4): 401-410.
17. Capparelli G, Versace P (2011) FLaIR and SUSHI: two mathematical models for early warning of landslides induced by rainfall. Landslides 8(1): 67-79.
18. Cepeda J, Höeg K, Nadim F (2010) Landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds: a conceptual framework. Q J Eng Geol Hydrogeol 43(1): 69-84.
19. Chiu LS, Liu Z, Vongsaard J, Morain S, Budge A, Neville P, Bales C (2006) Comparison of TRMM and water district rain rates over New Mexico. Adv Atmos Sci 23(1): 1-13.
20. Chleborad AF (2003) Preliminary evaluation of a precipitation threshold for anticipating the occurrence of landslides in Seattle, Washington. USGS Open-file report 03-463.
21. Chleborad AF, Baum RL, Godt JW, Powers PS (2008) A prototype system for forecasting landslides in the Seattle, Washington area. Rev Eng Geol 20: 103-120.
22. Chokngamwong R, Chiu LS (2008) Thailand daily rainfall and comparison with TRMM products. J Hydrometeorol 9(2): 256-266.
23. Chowdhury R, Flentje P (2002) Uncertainties in rainfall-induced landslide hazard. Q J Eng Geol Hydrogeol 35: 61-70.
24. Crosta G (1998) Regionalization of rainfall threshold: an aid to landslide hazard evaluation. Environ Geol 35: 131-145.
25. Crozier MJ (1986) Landslides: causes, consequences and environment. Croom Helm, London.
26. Crozier MJ (1999) Prediction of rainfall-triggered landslides: a test of the antecedent water status model. Earth Surf Process Landforms 24: 825-833.
27. Crozier MJ, Eyles RJ (1980) Assessing the probability of rapid mass movement. In: Crozier MJ, Eyles RJ (eds) Proceedings of 3rd Australia-New Zealand Conference on Geomechanics (Technical Groups), Wellington, New Zealand. NZ Inst. Eng, New Zealand, pp 2. 47-2. 51.
28. Dahal RK, Hasegawa S (2008) Representative rainfall thresholds for landslides in the Nepal Himalaya. Geomorphology 100: 429-443.
29. Dai FC, Lee CF (2002) Landslide characteristics and slope instability modeling using GIS, Lantau Island, Hong Kong. Geomorphology 42(3): 213-228.
30. EM-DAT (2012) The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database. http://www. emdat. be. Accessed 10 June 2012.
31. Finlay PJ, Fell R, Maguire PK (1997) The relationship between probability of landslide occurrence and rainfall. Can Geotech J 34: 811-824.
32. Floris M, Bozzano F (2008) Evaluation of landslide reactivation: a modified rainfall threshold model based on historical records of rainfall and landslides. Geomorphology 94(1): 40-57.
33. Gabet EJ, Burbank DW, Putkonen JK, Pratt-Sitaula BA, Ojha T (2004) Rainfall thresholds for landsliding in the Himalayas of Nepal. Geomorphology 63(3): 131-143.
34. Giannecchini R (2006) Relationship between rainfall and shallow landslides in the southern Apuan Alps (Italy). Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 6: 357-364.
35. Glade T, Crozier MJ, Smith P (2000) Applying probability determination to refine landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds using an empirical 'antecedent daily rainfall model'. Pure Appl Geophys 157: 1059-1079.
36. Godt JW, Baum RL, Savage WZ, Salciarini D, Schulz WH, Harp EL (2008) Transient deterministic shallow landslide modeling: requirements for susceptibility and hazard assessments in a GIS framework. Eng Geol 102: 214-226.
37. Govi M, Sorzana PF (1980) Landslide susceptibility as a function of critical rainfall amount in Piedmont Basin (north-western Italy). Studia Geomorphologica Carpatho-Balcanica 14: 43-61.
38. Griesbach CL (1891) Geology of the Central Himalayas. Memoirs of Geological Survey of India. GSI, Kolkota.
39. Guidicini G, Iwasa OY (1977) Tentative correlation between rainfall and landslides in a humid tropical environment. Bull Int Assoc Eng Geol 16: 13-20.
40. Gupta V, Bist KS (2004) The 23 September 2003 Varunavat Parvat landslide in Uttarkashi township, Uttaranchal. Curr Sci 78(11): 1600-1605.
41. Guzzetti F, Carrara A, Cardinali M, Reichenbach P (1999) Landslide hazard evaluation: a review of current techniques and their application in a multi-scale study, Central Italy. Geomorphology 31(1): 181-216.
42. Guzzetti F, Cardinali M, Reichenbach P, Cipolla F, Sebastiani C, Galli M, Salvati P (2004) Landslides triggered by the 23 November 2000 rainfall event in the Imperia Province, western Liguria, Italy. Eng Geol 73: 229-245.
43. Guzzetti F, Peruccacci S, Rossi M, Stark CP (2007) Rainfall thresholds for the initiation of landslides in central and southern Europe. Meteorog Atmos Phys 98: 239-267.
44. Guzzetti F, Peruccacci S, Rossi M, Stark CP (2008) The rainfall intensity-duration control of shallow landslides and debris flows: an update. Landslides 5(1): 3-17.
45. Hanley JA, McNeil BJ (1982) The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Radiology 143(1): 29-36.
46. Hong Y, Adler RF (2007) Towards an early-warning system for global landslides triggered by rainfall and earthquake. Int J Remote Sens 28(16): 3713-3719.
47. Hong Y, Hiura H, Shino K, Sassa K, Suemine A, Fukuoka H, Wang G (2005) The influence of intense rainfall on the activity of large-scale crystalline schist landslides in Shikoku Island, Japan. Landslides 2: 97-105.
48. Hua-xi GAO, Kun-long YIN (2007) Discussion on the correlations between landslides and rainfall and threshold for landslide early-warning and prediction. Rock Soil Mech 28(5): 1055-1060.
49. Huffman GJ, Bolvin DT, Nelkin EJ, Wolff DB, Adler RF, Guojun G, Hong Y, Bowman KP, Stocker EF (2007) The TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA): quasi-global, multiyear, combined-sensor precipitation estimates at fine scales. J Hydrometeorol 8(1): 38-55.
50. Iverson RM (2000) Landslide triggering by rain infiltration. Water Resour Res 36: 1897-1910.
51. Jacob M, Weatherly H (2003) A hydroclimatic threshold for landslide initiation on the North Shore Mountains of Vancouver, British Columbia. Geomorphology 54: 137-156.
52. Kamal-Heikman S, Derry LA, Stedinger JR, Duncan CC (2007) A simple predictive tool for lower Brahmaputra River basin monsoon flooding. Earth Interactions 11(21): 1-11.
53. Keefer DK, Wilson RC, Mark RK, Brabb EE, Brown WM III, Ellen SD, Harp EL, Wieczorek GF, Alger CS, Zatkin RS (1987) Real-time landslide warning during heavy rainfall. Science 238(13): 921-925.
54. Kleinbaum DG (1994) Logistic regression: a self-learning text. Springer, New York.
55. Kumar G (2005) Geology of Uttar Pradesh and Uttaranchal. Geological Society of India, Bangalore.
56. Kundu S (2010) Shallow landslide susceptibility modelling using infinite slope stability method and precipitation thresholding for rainfall triggered landslides: a case study from part of Garhwal Himalaya, India. MTech dissertation, Indian Institute of Remote Sensing, Dehradun, India.
57. Kuthari S (2007) Establishing precipitation thresholds for landslide initiation along with slope characterisation using GIS-based modeling. MSc dissertation, ITC, Enschede, the Netherlands.
58. Liao Z, Hong Y, Wang J, Fukuoka H, Sassa K, Karnawati D, Fathani F (2010) Prototyping an experimental early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides in Indonesia using satellite remote sensing and geospatial datasets. Landslides 7(3): 317-324.
59. Maldonado MES (2011) Remote sensing based hydrologic modelling in the Babahoyo River sub-basin for water balance assessment. MSc dissertation, University of Twente, the Netherlands.
60. Mathew J, Jha VK, Rawat GS (2007) Application of binary logistic regression analysis and its validation for landslide susceptibility mapping in part of Garhwal Himalaya, India. Int J Remote Sens 28(10): 2257-2275.
61. Mathew J, Jha VK, Rawat GS (2009) Landslide susceptibility zonation mapping and its validation in part of Garhwal Lesser Himalaya, India, using binary logistic regression analysis and receiver operating characteristic curve method. Landslides 6(1): 17-26.
62. Montgomery DR, Dietrich WE (1994) A physically based model for the topographic control on shallow landsliding. Water Resour Res 30: 1153-1171.
63. Nair S, Srinivasan G, Nemani R (2009) Evaluation of multi-satellite TRMM derived rainfall estimates over a western state of India. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 87(6): 927-939.
64. Ohlmacher GC, Davis JC (2003) Using multiple logistic regression and GIS technology to predict landslide hazard in northeast Kansas, USA. Eng Geol 69(3): 331-343.
65. Osanai N, Shimizu T, Kuramoto K, Kojima S, Noro T (2010) Japanese early-warning for debris flows and slope failures using rainfall indices with radial basis function network. Landslides 7(3): 325-338.
66. Rautela P, Pande RK (2005) Traditional input in disaster management: the case of Amparav, North India. Int J Environ Stud 62(5): 505-515.
67. Reichenbach P, Cardinali M, De Vita P, Guzzetti F (1998) Regional hydrological thresholds for landslides and floods in the Tiber River Basin (Central Italy). Environ Geol 35: 146-159.
68. Scheel MLM, Rohrer M, Huggel C, Santos Villar D, Silvestre E, Huffman GJ (2011) Evaluation of TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) performance in the Central Andes region and its dependency on spatial and temporal resolution. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 15: 2649-2663.
69. Sengupta A, Gupta S, Anbarasu K (2010) Rainfall thresholds for the initiation of landslide at Lanta Khola in North Sikkim, India. Nat Hazard 52(1): 31-42.
70. Sharma S (2012) Catastrophic hydrological event of 18 and 19 September 2010 in Uttarakhand, Indian Central Himalaya-an analysis of rainfall and slope failure. Curr Sci 102(2): 327-332.
71. Staley DM, Kean JW, Cannon SH, Schmidt KM, Laber JL (2012) Objective definition of rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for the initiation of post-fire debris flows in southern California. Landslides. doi: 10. 1007/s10346-012-0341-9.
72. Starkel L (1979) The role of extreme meteorological events in the shaping of mountain relief. Geographica Polonica 41: 13-20.
73. Su F, Hong Y, Lettenmaier DP (2008) Evaluation of TRMM multi-satellite precipitation analysis (TMPA) and its utility in hydrologic prediction in the La Plata Basin. J Hydrometeorol 9: 622-640.
74. Terlien MTJ (1998) The determination of statistical and deterministic hydrological landslide-triggering thresholds. Environ Geol 35: 124-130.
75. Terzaghi K (1950) Mechanism of landslides. In: Paige S (ed) Application of geology to engineering practice. Berkeley Volume, Geological Society of America, pp 83-123.
76. Tsaparas I, Rahardjo H, Toll DG, Leong EC (2002) Controlling parameters for rainfall-induced landslides. Comput Geotech 29: 1-27.
77. van Westen CJ, Terlien MTJ (1996) An approach towards deterministic landslide hazard analysis in GIS-a case study from Manizales (Colombia). Earth Surf Process Land 21: 853-868.
78. Wieczorek GF (1996) Landslide triggering mechanisms. In: Turner AK, Schuster RL (eds) Landslides: investigation and mitigation. Transportation Research Board, Special Report 247. National Research Council, Washington, pp 76-79.
79. Wilson RC (1997) Operation of a landslide warning system during the California storm sequence of January and February 1993. In: Larson RA, Slosson JE (eds) Reviews in engineering geology. Geological Society of America, Boulder, pp 61-70.
80. Yin Y, Wang H, Gao Y, Li X (2010) Real-time monitoring and early warning of landslides at relocated Wushan Town, the Three Gorges Reservoir, China. Landslides 7(3): 339-349.
81. Zweig MH, Campbell G (1993) Receiver operating characteristic plots: a fundamental evaluation tool in clinical medicine. Clin Chem 39(4): 561-577.