An Analysis of the Causes of Non-Responses to Cyclone Warnings and the Use of Indigenous Knowledge for Cyclone Forecasting in Bangladesh

Climate Change Management

Volumn , Issue , 2013, Pages 15-39

  Paul, Shitangsu Kumar ^a   Routray, Jayant K ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF RAJSHAHI   (Bangladesh)

^b ASIAN INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY   (Thailand)

Author keywords

Bangladesh; Community vulnerability; Cyclone sidr; Cyclone warning; Indigenous knowledge

Indexed keywords

EID: 84905083052     PISSN: 16102002     EISSN: 16102010     Source Type: Book Series    
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-31110-9_2     Document Type: Chapter

References (114)

1. Ahmed AU (2005) Adaptation options for managing water related extreme events under climate change regime: Bangladesh perspectives. In: Mirza MMQ, Ahmad QK (eds) Climate change and water resources in South Asia. Balkema Press, Leiden, pp 255–278
2. Ali A (1980) Storm surges in the Bay of Bengal and their numerical modeling. SARC Report No. 125/80. Atomic energy commission, Dhaka
3. Ali A (1999) Climate change impacts and adaptation assessment in Bangladesh. Climate Res 12:109–116
4. Ali A, Chowdhury JU (1997) Tropical cyclone risk assessment with special reference to Bangladesh. Mausam (Indian J Meteorol Hydrol Geophys) 48:305–322
5. Ali Khan TM, Singh OP, Rahman MS (2000) Recent sea level and sea surface temperature trends along the Bangladesh coast in relation to the frequency of intense cyclones. Marine Geodesy 23(2):1–14
6. Anderson W (1969) Disaster warning and communication processes in two communities. J Commun 19:92–104
7. As-Salek JA (1998) Coastal trapping and funneling effect on storm surges in the Meghna estuary in relation with the cyclones hitting Noakhali-Cox’s Bazar coast of Bangladesh. J Phys Oceanogr 28(2):227–249
8. Baker EJ (1979) Predicting response to hurricane warnings: A reanalysis of data from four studies. Mass Emerg 4:9–24
9. Bern C et al (1993) Risk factors for mortality in the Bangladesh cyclone of 1991. WHO Bull 71(1):73–78
10. Blake G (2008) The gathering storm. OnEarth 30(2):22–37
11. Brouwer R, Akter S, Brander L, Haque E (2007) Socio-economic vulnerability and adaptation to environmental risk: A case study of climate change and flooding in Bangladesh. Risk Anal 27(2):313–326
12. Choudhury NY, Paul A, Paul BK (2004) Impact of costal embankment on the flash flood in Bangladesh: a case study. Appl Geog 24(3):241–258
13. Chowdhury KMMH (2002) Cyclone preparedness and management in Bangladesh. In: BPATC (ed.) Improvement of early warning system and responses in Bangladesh towards total disaster risk management approach. BPATC, Savar, Dhaka, 115–119
14. Chowdhury AMR, Bhuyia AU, Choudhury AY, Sen R (1993) The Bangladesh cyclone of 1991: why so many people died. Nat Hazards 17(4):291–304
15. CPP (2009) CPP at a glance. Cyclone preparedness programme (CPP) and Bangladesh red crescent society (BDRCS), Dhaka
16. Del Ninno C, Dorosh PA (2003) Public policy, markets and household coping strategies in Bangladesh: Avoiding a food security crisis following the 1998 floods. World Dev 31(7):1221–1238
17. Dillman DA, Schwalbe ML, Short JF (1982) Communication behavior and social impacts following the May 18, 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens. In: Keller SAC (ed.) Mount St Helens: one year later, Eastern Washington University Press, Washington, pp 173–179
18. Dow K, Cutter S (1998) Crying wolf: Repeat responses to hurricane evacuation orders. Coast Manag 26(4):237–252
19. Drabek T (1986) Human system response to disaster: An inventory of sociological findings. Springer, New York
20. Drabek T (2000) The social factors that constrain human responses to flood warnings. In: Dennis J. Parker (ed.) Floods, vol 1. Routledge, London and New York, pp 361–376
21. Drabek T (2004) Social dimensions of disaster, 2nd ed. Emmitsburg, Maryland. Emergency Management Institute, Federal Emergency Management Agency
22. Drabek T, III Stephenson J (1971) When disaster strikes. J Appl Soc Psychol 1(2):187–203
23. Dube SK, Chittibabu P, Sinha PC, Rao AD, Murty TS (2004) Numerical modelling of storm surge in the head Bay of Bengal using location specific model. Nat Hazards 31(2):437–453
24. Emanuel K (2005) Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature 436(4):686–688
25. Few R (2003) Flooding, vulnerability and coping strategies: local responses to a global threat. Prog Dev Stud 3(1):43–58
26. Frank NL, Hossain SA (1971) The deadliest tropical cyclone in history? Bull Am Meteorol Soc 52(6):438–444
27. GoB (1999) Standing orders on disaster. Disaster Management Bureau, Government of Bangladesh, Dhaka
28. GoB (1999) Standing orders on disaster. Disaster management bureau, Ministry of food and disaster management, Government of People’s Republic of Bangladesh, Dhaka
29. GoB (2007) Super cyclone sidr 2007: emergency response and action plans interim report. Government of People’s Republic of Bangladesh, Ministry of Food and Disaster Management Bangladesh Secretariat, Dhaka, Bangladesh, 27 December 2007. Available (September 2010) www.cdmp.org.bd/Revised-Sidr-Report-Final.pdf
30. GoB (2008) Cyclone sidr in Bangladesh: damage, loss, and needs assessment for disaster recovery and reconstruction. A report prepared by the government of Bangladesh assisted by the international development community with financial support from the European commission
31. Gray WM (1985) Tropical cyclone global climatology. WMO Technical Document WMO/TD No. 72(1), WMO, Geneva, Switzerland, 3–19
32. Gregg CE et al (2006) Natural warning signs of Tsunamis: human sensory experience and response in Thailand. Earthq Spectra 22(3):671–691
33. Haider R (1992) Cyclone 1991 revisited: a follow-up study. Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS)
34. Haider R, Rahman A, Huq S (1991) Cyclone’91: an environmental and perceptual study. Centre for Advanced Studies (BACS), Bangladesh
35. Haque CE (1991) Impact and responses to the tropical cyclone 2B in coastal Bangladesh. In: Proceeding of the seminar Bangladesh and natural disasters, Carleton University, Ontario. pp 14–26
36. Haque CE (1993) An appraisal of the disaster process in Bangladesh: what has been happening to the April cyclone victims?. In: Wilson MR (ed.) Proceedings of the Prairie division. Canadian Association Geographers, Department of Geography, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, pp 205–220
37. Haque CE (1995) Climatic hazards warning process in experience of, and lessons from, the April cyclone. Environ Manag 19(5):719–734
38. Haque CE (1997) Hazards in a fickle environment: Bangladesh. Kluwer Academic Publisher, The Netherlands
39. Haque CE, Blair D (1992) Vulnerability to tropical cyclones: Evidence from the April 1991 cyclone in coastal Bangladesh. Disasters 16(3):217–229
40. Haque CE, Zaman MQ (1989) Coping with riverbank erosion hazard and displacement in Bangladesh: Survival Strategies and Adjustments. Disasters 13(4):300–314
41. Haque CE, Zaman MQ (1993) Human responses to riverine hazards in Bangladesh: A proposal for sustainable floodplain development. World Dev 21(1):93–107
42. Haque CE, Zaman MQ (1994) Vulnerability and Response to Riverine Hazards in Bangladesh: a critique of flood control and mitigation approaches. In: Varley A (ed) Disasters, development and environment. John Willy and Sons, London, pp 65–79
43. Heath M (2007) UN grants aid to Bangladesh to assist 3 million hit by cyclone. Available (September 2010) www.bloomberg.com
44. Hossain MZ, Islam MT, Sakai T, Ishida M (2008) Impact of Tropical Cyclones on Rural Infrastructures in Bangladesh. Agric Eng Int 10(2):1–13
45. Howell P (2003) Indigenous early warning indicators of cyclones: potential application in coastal Bangladesh benfield hazard research centre. Available (September 2010) www.benfieldhrc.org/disaster_studies/working_papers/pdfs/workingpaper6.pdf
46. Huq S, Ahmed AU, Koudstaal R (1996) Vulnerability of Bangladesh to climate change and Sea level rise. In: Downing TE (ed.) Climate change and world food security, NATO ASI Series 137. Springer, Berlin, pp 347–379
47. Hutton D, Haque CE (2004) Human vulnerability, dislocation and resettlement: adaptation process of river-bank erosion-induced displacees in Bangladesh. Disasters 28(1):41–62
48. IPCC (2001) Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. In: Houghton et al (eds.) Contribution of working group-I to the IPCC third assessment report. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
49. Islam MA (1971) Human adjustment to cyclone hazards: a case study of Char Jabbar. Natural hazards research working paper no. 18. University of Toronto, Toronto
50. Islam MA (1974) Tropical cyclones: coastal Bangladesh. In: White GF (ed) Natural hazards-local, national and global. Oxford University Press, New York, pp 19–24
51. Islam MA (1980) Agricultural adjustments to flooding in Bangladesh: a preliminary report. Natl Geogr J India 26:50–59
52. Islam MA (1992) Natural calamities and environmental refugees in Bangladesh. Refuge 12(1):5–10
53. Islam RM (2008) Towards institutionalization of global ICZM efforts. In: Krishnamurthy RR (ed) Integrated coastal zone management. Research Publishing Services, Singapore, p 23
54. Islam MS, Ullah MS, Paul A (2004) Community response to broadcast media for cyclone warning and disaster mitigation: a perception study of coastal people with special reference to Meghna Estuary in Bangladesh. Asian J Water Environ Pollut 1(1–2):55–64
55. Jahan S (1992) Disaster and socio-economic consequences. In: Development of modules for training on integrated approach to disaster management and regional/rural development planning, Phase III, united nations centre for regional development, Nagoya (Based on papers presented during the UNCRDCIRDAP Workshop and Seminar, Phase III, held in Dhaka and Chittagong on 25–30 January, 1992)
56. Karim MF, Mimura N (2008) Impacts of climate change and sea-level rise on cyclonic storm surge floods in Bangladesh. Glob Environ Chang 18(3):490–500
57. Khalil GM (1992) Cyclones and storm surges in Bangladesh: Some mitigative measures. Nat Hazards 6(1):11–24
58. Khalil GM (1993) The catastrophic cyclone of April 1991: Its impact on the economy of Bangladesh. Nat Hazards 8(3):263–281
59. Khan MSA (2008) Disaster preparedness for sustainable development in Bangladesh. Disaster Prev Manag 17(5):662–671
60. Khandker SR (2007) Coping with flood: role of institutions in Bangladesh. Agric Econ 36(2):169–180
61. Landry T, Rogers G (1982) Warning confirmation and dissemination. Unpublished paper, Center for Urban Studies, University of Pittsburgh
62. Lindell M, Perry R (1992) Behavioral foundations of community emergency planning. Hemisphere Publishing Co., Washington
63. Lindell MK, Perry RW (2004) Communicating environmental risk in multiethnic communities. Sage Publications, Thousand Oaks
64. Liu S, Quenemoen L, Maliday J, Moji E, Sinks T, Mendlein J (1996) Assessment of a severe-weather warning system and disaster preparedness. Am J Public Health 86(1):87–89
65. Madsen H, Jakobsen F (2004) Cyclone induced storm surge and flood forecasting in the northern Bay of Bengal. Coast Eng 51(4):277–296
66. Mamun MZ (1996) Awareness, preparedness and adjustment measures of riverbank Erosion prone people: a case study. Disasters 20(1):68–74
67. Matsuda I (1993) Loss of human lives induced by the cyclone of 29–30 April 1991 in Bangladesh. GeoJournal 31(4):319–325
68. Mcluckie B (1970) The warning system in disaster situations: a selective analysis. Report series 9, Disaster Research Center, University of Delaware, Newark, Del 19716
69. Mian, S.M. (2005), ‘‘Generating Sustainable Employment in the Coastal Zone of Bangladesh-Present situation and future potentials’’, Working paper WP042, Program Development office for Integrated Coastal Zone Management, Dhaka
70. Mileti DS (1995) Factors related to flood warning response U.S–Italy research workshop on the hydrometeorology, impacts, and management of extreme floods, Perugia (Italy), November 1995
71. Mileti DS, Peek L (2000) The social psychology of public response to warnings of a nuclear power plant accident. J Hazard Mater 75:181–194
72. Mileti DS, Sorensen J (1987) Determinants of organizational effectiveness in crisis. Columbia Univ J World Bus 12(1):13–21
73. Mileti DS, Sorensen J (1990) Communication of emergency public warnings ORNL-6609. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn
74. Mimura N (1999) National assessment results of climate change: impacts and responses CR Special 6. Interresearch, Oldendorf 230
75. Miyan MA (2005) Cyclone disaster mitigation in Bangladesh. South Asian Disaster Management Center (SADMC). Available (December 2008) www.researchsea.com/html/article.php/aid/ 141/cid/6?PHPSESSID=36f90mj40it9tvbao1otg8ljj7
76. Mooley DA (1980) Severe cyclonic storms in the Bay of Bengal 1877–1977. Mon Weather Rev 108:1647–1655
77. Murty TS, El-Sabh M (1992) Mitigating the effects of storm surges generated by tropical cyclones-A proposal. Nat Hazards 6(3):251–273
78. Murty TS, Neralla VR (1992) On the recurvature of tropical cyclones and the storm surge problem in Bangladesh. Nat Hazards 6(3):275–279
79. Nicholls RJ (1995) Synthesis of vulnerability analysis studies. In: Beukenkamp P. et al (eds.) Proceedings of the world coast conference 1993. The Hague, National institute for coastal and marine management, Coastal zone management centre publication 4, 181–216. Available (September 2010) http://www.survas.mdx.ac.uk/pdfs/nicholls.pdf
80. Nicholls RJN, Mimura N, Topping JC (1995) Climate change in South and South–East Asia: some implications for coastal areas. J Glob Environ Eng 1:137–154
81. Nicholls RJ, Hoozemans FMJ, Marchand M (1999) Increasing flood risk and wetland losses due to global sea-level rise: regional and global analyses. Glob Environ Change 9(1):69–87
82. Ortiz CAC (1994) Sea level rise and its impact on Bangladesh. Ocean Coast Manag 23(3):249–270
83. Parvin GA, Takahashi F, Shaw R (2008) Coastal hazards and community––coping methods in Bangladesh. J Coast Conserv 12(4):181–193
84. Paul BK (1984) Perception of and agricultural adjustments to floods in Jamuna floodplain. Bangladesh Hum Ecol 12(1):3–19
85. Paul BK (2009a) Why relatively fewer people died? The case of Bangladesh’s cyclone sidr. Nat Hazards 50(2):289–304
86. Paul BK (2009b) Human injuries caused by Bangladesh’s cyclone Sidr: An empirical study. Nat Hazards 54(2):483–495
87. Paul A, Rahman M (2006) Cyclone mitigation perspectives in the Islands of Bangladesh: a case of Sandwip and Hatia Islands. Coast Manag 34(2):199–215
88. Paul SK, Routray JK (2010a) Flood proneness and coping strategies: the experiences of two villages in Bangladesh. Disasters 34(2):489–508
89. Paul SK, Routray JK (2010b) Household response to cyclone and induced surge in coastal Bangladesh: coping strategies and explanatory variables. Nat Hazards 57(2):477–499
90. Paul BK, Rashid H, Islam MS, Hunt LM (2007) Cyclone evacuation in Bangladesh: Tropical cyclones Gorky (1991) vs. Sidr (2007). Environ Hazards 9(1):89–101
91. Perry RW, Lindell MK (1986) Twentieth-century volcanicity at Mt. St. Helens: the routinization of life near and active volcano. Tempe, School of Public Affairs, Arizona State University
92. Perry RW, Lindell MK, Greene M (1981) Evacuation planning in emergency management. Lexington Books, Lexington
93. Perry RW, Lindell MK, Greene M (1982) Threat perception and pubic response to volcano hazard. J Soc Psychol 116:199–204
94. Post J, Wegscheider S, Muck M, Zosseder K, Kiefl R, Steinmetz T, Strunz G (2009) Assessment of human immediate response capability related to tsunami threats in Indonesia at a sub-national scale. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 9:1075–1086
95. Quarantelli EL (1980) Evacuation behavior and problems: findings and implications from the research literature. Disaster Research Center, Ohio State University Press, Ohio
96. Rasid H (1993) Preventing flooding or regulating flood levels?: case studies on perception of flood alleviation in Bangladesh. Nat Hazards 8(1):39–57
97. Rasid H (2000) Reducing vulnerability to flood disasters in Bangladesh: compatibility of floodplain residents preferences for flood alleviation measures with indigenous adjustments to floods. In: Parker DJ (ed) Floods, vol II, Routledge, London, pp 46–65
98. Rasid H, Haider W (2003) Floodplain residents’ preferences for water level management options in flood control projects in Bangladesh. Nat Hazards 28(1):101–129
99. Rasid H, Mallik A (1995) Flood adaptations in Bangladesh: is the compartmentalization scheme compatible with indigenous adjustments of rice cropping to flood regimes? Appl Geogr 15:3–17
100. Rasid H, Paul BK (1987) Flood problems in Bangladesh: is there an indigenous solution? Environ Manag 11(2):155–173
101. Rogers GO (1985) Human components of emergency warning. University Center for Social and Urban Research, University of Pittsburg, Pittsburgh
102. Schmuck WH (1996) Living with the floods: survival strategies of Char-Dwellers in Bangladesh. ASA-Text 6, Berlin, FDCL. ISBN 3-923020-18-X
103. Schmuck WH (2000) An act of Allah: religious explanations for floods in Bangladesh as survival strategy. Int J Mass Emerg Disasters 18(1):85–95
104. Schmuck WH (2003) Living with cyclones: strategies for disaster preparedness in Cox’s Bazar district. Bangladesh, Geographische Rundschau 55(11):34–39
105. Shamsuddoha M, Chowdhury RK (2007) Climate change impact and disaster vulnerabilities in the coastal areas of Bangladesh. COAST Trust, Dhaka
106. Singh OP, Ali Khan TM, Murty TS, Rahman MS (2001) Sea level changes along Bangladesh coast in relation to southern oscillation phenomenon. Marine Geodesy 24(1):65–72
107. Sorensen JH (2000) Hazard warning systems: review of 20 years of progress. Nat Hazards Rev 1(2):119–125
108. Sorensen J, Mileti DS (1987) Decision making uncertainties in emergency warning system organizations. Int J Mass Emerg Disasters 5(1):33–61
109. Sorensen JH, Sorensen BV (2006) Community processes: warning and evacuation. In: Rodríguez H, Quarantelli EL, Dynes RR (eds) Handbook of disaster research. Springer, New York, pp 183–199
110. Tatham P, Spens K, Oloruntoba R (2009) Cyclones in Bangladesh—a case study of a whole country response to rapid onset disasters. In: Hanna MD (ed) Proceedings of the 20th annual conference of the production and operations management society, Orlando, Florida, May 1–4, 42 [(011-0029 (CD-ROM)]
111. Turner RH, Nigg JM, Paz DH, Young BS (1981) Community response to earthquake threats in Southern California. University of California Press, Los Angeles
112. Wisner B, Blaikie P, Cannon T, Davis I (2004) At risk, 2nd edn. Routledge, London
113. Wogalter MS, Dejoy DM, Laughery KR (1999) Warnings and risk communication. Taylor and Francis, London
114. World Bank (2000) Bangladesh: climate change and sustainable development. Report No. 21104-BD, Rural Development Unit, South Asia Region, Dhaka, p 95