Multivariate Prediction of Total Water Storage Changes Over West Africa from Multi-Satellite Data

Surveys in Geophysics

Volumn 35, Issue 4, 2014, Pages 913-940

  Forootan, Ehsan ^a   Kusche, Jürgen ^a   Loth, Ina ^a   Schuh, Wolf Dieter ^a   Eicker, Annette ^a   Awange, Joseph ^b   Longuevergne, Laurent ^c   Diekkrüger, Bernd ^a   Schmidt, Michael ^d   Shum, C K ^e,f  

^a UNIVERSITY OF BONN   (Germany)

^b CURTIN UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

^c UNIVERSITÉ DE RENNES 1   (France)

^d German Geodetic Research Institute   (Germany)

^e OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^f Wuhan National Laboratory for Optoelectronics   (China)

Author keywords

Autoregressive model; GRACE gap filling; Independent Component Analysis; Predicting GRACE TWS; West Africa

Indexed keywords

FORECASTING; GEODETIC SATELLITES; HYDROLOGY; INDEPENDENT COMPONENT ANALYSIS; OCEANOGRAPHY; RAIN; RAIN GAGES; WATER MANAGEMENT;

AUTO REGRESSIVE MODELS; GAP FILLING; GRAVITY RECOVERY AND CLIMATE EXPERIMENTS; PREDICTING GRACE-TWS; REMOTELY-SENSED OBSERVATIONS; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST); TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSIONS; WEST AFRICA;

DIGITAL STORAGE;

GRACE; HYDROLOGICAL MODELING; MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS; REMOTE SENSING; SATELLITE DATA; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; TELECONNECTION; TRMM; VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION; WATER MANAGEMENT; WATER RESOURCE; WATER STORAGE;

INDIAN OCEAN; PACIFIC OCEAN; WEST AFRICA;

EID: 84903899520     PISSN: 01693298     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10712-014-9292-0     Document Type: Review

References (64)

1. Ahmed M, Sultan M, Wahr J, Yan E, Milewski A, Sauck W, Becker R, Welton B (2011) Integration of GRACE (gravity recovery and climate experiment) data with traditional data sets for a better understanding of the timedependent water partitioning in African watersheds. J Geol 41(1): doi: 10. 1130/G31812. 1.
2. Ali A, Lebel T (2009). The Sahelian standardized rainfall index revisited. Int J Climatol: 1705-1714. doi: 10. 1002/joc.
3. Boone A, Decharme B, Guichard F, de Rosnay P, Balsamo G, Beljaars A, Chopin F, Orgeval T, Polcher J, Delire C, Ducharne A, Gascoin S, Grippa M, Jarlan L, Kergoat L, Mougin E, Gusev Y, Nasonova O, Harris P, Taylor C, Norgaard A, Sandholt I, Ottlé C, Poccard-Leclercq I, Saux-Picart S, Xue Y (2009) The AMMA land surface model intercomparison project (ALMIP). Bull Am Meteorol Soc 90(12): 1865-1880. doi: 10. 1175/2009BAMS2786. 1.
4. Chen JL, Wilson CR, Tapley BD, Longuevergne L, Yang ZL, Scanlon BR (2010) Recent La Plata basin drought conditions observed by satellite gravimetry. J Geophys Res 115(D22): 1-12. doi: 10. 1029/2010JD014689.
5. Crétaux J-F, Jelinski W, Calmant S, Kouraev A, Vuglinski V, Bergé Nguyen M, Gennero M-C, Nino F, Abarca Del Rio F, Cazenave A, Maisongrande P (2011) SOLS: a lake database to monitor in near real time water level and storage variations from remote sensing data. J Adv Space Res: 1497-1507. doi: 10. 1016/j. asr. 2011. 01. 004.
6. Diatta S, Fink AH (2014) Statistical relationship between remote climate indices and West African monsoon variability. Int J Climatol. doi: 10. 1002/joc. 3912.
7. Döll P, Kaspar F, Lehner B (2003) A global hydrological model for deriving water availability indicators: model tuning and validation. J Hydrol 270(1-2): 105-134. doi: 10. 1016/S0022-1694(02)00283-4.
8. Douville H, Conil S, Tyteca S, Voldoire A (2006) Soil moisture memory and West African monsoon predictability: artifact or reality? Clim Dyn 28(7-8): 723-742. doi: 10. 1007/s00382-006-0207-8.
9. Efron B (1979) Bootstrap methods: another look at the jackknife. Ann Stat 7: 1-26.
10. Flechtner F (2007) GFZ Level-2 processing standards document for level-2 product release 0004. GRACE 327-743, Rev. 1. 0.
11. Fleming K, Awange JL (2013) Comparing the version 7 TRMM 3B43 monthly precipitation product with the TRMM 3B43 version 6/6A and BoM datasets for Australia. Aust Meteorol Oceanogr J 63(3): 421-426.
12. Forootan E, Didova O, Schumacher M, Kusche J, Elsaka B (2014) Comparisons of atmospheric mass variations derived from ECMWF reanalysis and operational fields, over 2003 to 2011. J Geod 88(5): 503-514. doi: 10. 1007/s00190-014-0696-x.
13. Forootan E, Didova O, Kusche J, Löcher A (2013) Comparisons of atmospheric data and reduction methods for the analysis of satellite gravimetry observations. J Geophys Res Solid Earth 118. doi: 10. 1002/jgrb. 50160.
14. Forootan E, Awange J, Kusche J, Heck B, Eicker A (2012) Independent patterns of water mass anomalies over Australia from satellite data and models. J Remote Sens Environ 124: 427-443. doi: 10. 1016/j. rse. 2012. 05. 023.
15. Forootan E, Kusche J (2013) Separation of deterministic signals, using independent component analysis (ICA). Stud Geophys Geod 57: 17-26. doi: 10. 1007/s11200-012-0718-1.
16. Forootan E, Kusche J (2012) Separation of global time-variable gravity signals into maximally independent components. J Geod 86(7): 477-497. doi: 10. 1007/s00190-011-0532-5.
17. Giannini A, Saravanan R, Chang P (2003) Oceanic forcing of Sahel rainfall on interannual to interdecadal time scales. Science 302: 1027-1030.
18. Giannini A, Biasutti M, Held IM, Sobel AH (2008) A global perspective on African climate. Clim Change 90: 359-383. doi: 10. 1007/s10584-008-9396-y.
19. Grippa M, Kergoat L, Frappart F, Araud Q, Boone A, de Rosnay P, Lemoine J-M, Gascoin S, Balsamo G, Ottle C, Decharme B, Saux-Picart S, Ramillien G (2011) Land water storage variability over West Africa estimated by gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE) and land surface models. Water Resour Res 47: W05549. doi: 10. 1029/2009WR008856.
20. Güntner A, Stuck J, Döll P, Schulze K, Merz B (2007) A global analysis of temporal and spatial variations in continental water storage. Water Resour Res 43(W05416). doi: 10. 1029/2006WR005247.
21. Hansen JW, Mason SJ, Sun L, Tall A (2011) Review of seasonal climate forecasting for agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa. Expl Agric 47(2): 205-240. doi: 10. 1017/S0014479710000876.
22. Heim RR (2002) A review of twentieth-century drought indices used in the United States. Bull Am Meteor Soc 83: 1149-1165.
23. Houborg R, Rodell M, Li B, Reichle R, Zaitchik BF (2012) Drought indicators based on model-assimilated gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE) terrestrial water storage observations. Water Resour Res 48. doi: 10. 1029/2011WR011291.
24. Huffman G, Bolvin D (2012) TRMM and other data precipitation data set documentation. Mesoscale atmospheric Processes Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center and Science Systems and Applications Inc.
25. Ilin A, Valpola H, Oja E (2005) Semiblind source separation of climate data detects El Niño as the component with the highest interannual variability. In: Proceedings of the international joint conference on neural networks (IJCNN 2005), Montréal, Québec, Canada, pp 1722-1727.
26. Kaplan A, Kushni Y, Cane MA, Blumenthal MB (1997) Reduced space optimal analysis for historical data sets: 136 years of Atlantic sea surface temperatures. J Geogr Res 102(C13): 27835-27860.
27. Koster RD, Dirmeyer PA, Guo Z, Bonan G, Chan E, Cox P, Gordon CT, Kanae S, Kowalczyk E, Lawrence D, Liu P, Lu C-H, Malyshev S, McAvaney B, Mitchell K, Mocko D, Oki T, Oleson K, Pitman A, Sud YC, Taylor CM, Verseghy D, Vasic R, Xue Y, Yamada T (2004) Regions of strong coupling between soil moisture and precipitation. Science 305(5687): 1138-1140. doi: 10. 1126/science. 1100217.
28. Kusche J (2007) Approximate decorrelation and non-isotropic smoothing of time-variable GRACE-type gravity field models. J Geod 81(11): 733-749. doi: 10. 1007/s00190-007-0143-3.
29. Kusche J, Schmidt R, Petrovic S, Rietbroek R (2009) Decorrelated GRACE time-variable gravity solutions by GFZ, and their validation using a hydrological model. J Geod 83: 903-913. doi: 10. 1007/s00190-009-0308-3.
30. Long D, Scanlon BR, Longuevergne L, Sun AY, Fernando DN, Save H (2013) GRACE satellite monitoring of large depletion in water storage in response to the 2011 drought in Texas. Geophys Res Lett 40(13): 3395-3401. doi: 10. 1002/grl. 50655.
31. Ljung L (1987) System identification: theory for the user. Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, N. J. 2005GL023316.
32. Mayer-Gürr T, Eicker A, Kurtenbach E (2010) ITG-GRACE 2010 unconstrained monthly solutions. http://www. igg. uni-bonn. de/apmg/.
33. Mohino E, Rodríguez-Fonseca B, Mechoso CR, Gervois S, Ruti P, Chauvin F (2011) Impacts of the tropical Pacific/Indian Oceans on the seasonal cycle of the West African monsoon. J Clim 24: 3878-3891. doi: 10. 1175/2011JCLI3988. 1.
34. Nahmani S, Bock O, Bouin M-N, Santamaría-Gómez A, Boy J-P, Collilieux X, Métivier L, Panet I, Genthon P, de Linage C, Wöppelmann G (2012) Hydrological deformation induced by the West African Monsoon: comparison of GPS, GRACE and loading models. J Geophys Res 117: B05409. doi: 10. 1029/2011JB009102.
35. Nicholson SE (2000) The nature of rainfall variability over Africa on time scales of decades to millenia. Glob Planet Change 26: 137-158.
36. Nicholson SE et al (2003) Validation of TRMM and other rainfall estimates with a high-density gauge dataset for West Africa. Part I: validation of GPCC rainfall product and pre-TRMM satellite and blended products. J Appl Meteorol 42: 1337-1354.
37. Omondi P, Awange JL, Ogallo LA, Okoola RA, Forootan E (2012) Decadal rainfall variability modes in observed rainfall records over East Africa and their relations to historical sea surface temperature changes. J Hydrol 464-465: 140-156. doi: 10. 1016/j. jhydrol. 2012. 07. 003.
38. Preisendorfer R (1988) Principal component analysis in meteorology and oceanography. Elsevier, Amsterdam, p 426, ISBN: 0444430148.
39. Reynolds RW, Rayne NA, Smith TM, Stokes DC, Wang W (2002) An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate. J Clim 15: 1609-1625.
40. Reager JT, Famiglietti JS (2013) Characteristic mega-basin water storage behavior using GRACE. Water Resour Res 49: 3314-3329. doi: 10. 1002/wrcr. 20264.
41. Redelsperger J-L, Thorncroft ChD, Diedhiou A, Lebel T, Parker DJ, Polcher J (2006) African monsoon multidisciplinary analysis: an international research project and field campaign. Bull Am Meteor Soc 87: 1739-1746. doi: 10. 1175/BAMS-87-12-1739.
42. Rietbroek R, Brunnabend SE, Dahle C, Kusche J, Flechtner F, Schröter J, Timmermann R (2009) Changes in total ocean mass derived from GRACE, GPS, and ocean modeling with weekly resolution. J Geophys Res 114(C11004): 2009J. doi: 10. 1029/C005449.
43. Rietbroek R, Fritsche M, Dahle C, Brunnabend S-E, Behnisch M, Kusche J, Flechtner F, Schröter J, Dietrich R (2014) Can GPS-derived surface loading bridge a GRACE mission gap? Surv Geophys. doi: 10. 1007/s10712-013-9276-5.
44. Rodell M, Houser PR, Jambor U, Gottschalck J, Mitchell K, Meng K, Arsenault C-J, Cosgrove B, Radakovich J, Bosilovich M, Entin JK, Walker JP, Lohmann D, Toll D (2004) The global land data assimilation system. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 85(3): 381-394.
45. Rodríguez-Fonseca B, Janicot S, Mohino E, Losada T, Bader J, Caminade C, Chauvin F, Fontaine B, García-Serrano J, Gervois S, Joly M, Polo I, Ruti P, Roucou P, Voldoire A (2011) Interannual and decadal SST-forced responses of the West African monsoon. Atmos Sci Lett 12(1): 67-74. doi: 10. 1002/asl. 308.
46. Saji NH, Goswami BN, Vinayachandran PN, Yamagata T (1999) A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. Nature 401: 360-363. doi: 10. 1038/43854.
47. Scanlon BR, Faunt CC, Longuevergne L, Reedy RC, Alley WM, McGuire VL, McMahon PB (2012) Groundwater depletion and sustainability of irrigation in the US High Plains and Central Valley. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 109(24): 9320-9325. doi: 10. 1073/pnas. 1200311109.
48. Schmidt R, Flechtner F, Meyer U, Neumayer K-H, Dahle Ch, König R, Kusche J (2008) Hydrological signals observed by the GRACE satellites. Surv Geophys 29(4-5): 319-334.
49. Schmidt R, Petrovic S, Güntner A, Barthelmes F, Wünsch J, Kusche J (2008) Periodic components of water storage changes from GRACE and global hydrology models. J Geophys Res 113: B08419.
50. Schumacher M, Eicker A, Kusche J, Schmied HM, Döll P (2014) Covariance analysis and sensitivity studies for GRACE assimilation into WGHM. IAG Scientific Assembly Proceedings 2014 (in press).
51. Schuol J, Abbaspour KC, Yang H, Srinivasan R, Zehnder AJB (2008) Modeling blue and green water availability in Africa. Water Resour Res 44. doi: 10. 1029/2007WR006609.
52. Schuol J, Abbaspour KC (2006) Calibration and uncertainty issues of a hydrological model (SWAT) applied to West Africa. Adv Geosci 9: 137-143.
53. Speth P, Christoph M, Diekkrüger B (2011) Impacts of global change on the hydrological cycle in West and Northwest Africa. Speth, Peter; Christoph, Michael; Diekkrüger, Bernd (Eds.). Springer, Berlin Heidelberg, p 675. ISBN: 3642129560.
54. Tapley B, Bettadpur S, Watkins M, Reigber C (2004) The gravity recovery and climate experiment: mission overview and early results. Geophys Res Lett 31. 10. 1029/2004GL019920.
55. van Dijk AIJM, Peña-Arancibia JL, Sheffield J, Beck HE (2013) Global analysis of seasonal streamflow predictability using an ensemble prediction system and observations from 6192 small catchments worldwide. Water Resour Res 49(5): 2729-2746. doi: 10. 1002/wrcr. 20251.
56. von Storch H, Navarra A (1999) Analysis of climate variability. Springer, p 342, ISBN 978-3-540-66315-7.
57. Wahr J, Molenaar M, Bryan F (1998) Time variability of the earth's gravity field: hydrological and oceanic effects and their possible detection using GRACE. J Geophys Res 103(B12): 30205-30229. doi: 10. 1029/98JB02844.
58. Wang K, Dickinson RE (2012) A review of global terrestrial evapotranspiration: observation, modeling, climatology, and climatic variability. Rev Geophys 50(2). doi: 10. 1029/2011RG000373.
59. Werth S, Güntner A, Schmidt R, Kusche J (2009) Evaluation of GRACE filter tools from a hydrological perspective. Geophys J Int 179: 1499-1515. doi: 10. 1111/j. 1365-246X. 2009. 04355. x.
60. Werth S, Güntner A, Petrovic S, Schmidt R (2009) Integration of GRACE mass variations into a global hydrological model. Earth Planet Sci Lett 277(1): 166-173.
61. Westra S, Brown C, Lall U, Sharma A (2007) Modeling multivariable hydrological series: principal component analysis or independent component analysis? Water Resour Res 43(6): W06429. doi: 10. 1029/2006WR005617.
62. Westra S, Sharma A, Brown C, Lall U (2008) Multivariate streamflow forecasting using independent component analysis. Water Resour Res 44(2): W02437. doi: 10. 1029/2007WR006104.
63. Xie H, Longuevergne L, Ringler C, Scanlon BR (2012) Calibration and evaluation of a semi-distributed watershed model of Sub-Saharan Africa using GRACE data. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 16(9): 3083-3099. doi: 10. 5194/hess-16-3083-2012.
64. Zaitchik BF, Rodell M, Reichle RH (2008) Assimilation of GRACE terrestrial water storage data into a land surface model: results for the Mississippi River Basin. J Hydrometeor 9(3): 535-548. doi: 10. 1175/2007JHM951. 1.