Effects of environmental heterogeneity on predictions of tree species' abundance in response to climate warming

Environmental Modelling and Software

Volumn 59, Issue , 2014, Pages 222-231

  Liang, Yu ^a   He, Hong S ^a,b   Wu, ZhiWei ^a   Yang, Jian ^a,c  

^a INSTITUTE OF APPLIED ECOLOGY   (China)

^b UNIVERSITY OF MISSOURI   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF NEVADA   (United States)

Author keywords

Climate warming; Environmental heterogeneity; Forest landscape model; Interspecies competition; LANDIS; Seed dispersal

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE MODELS; FORECASTING; NONLINEAR ANALYSIS;

CLIMATE WARMING; ENVIRONMENTAL HETEROGENEITY; FOREST LANDSCAPE MODELING; LANDIS; SEED DISPERSAL;

FORESTRY;

ABUNDANCE; CLIMATE EFFECT; FOREST DYNAMICS; HETEROGENEITY; INTERSPECIFIC COMPETITION; LANDSCAPE CHANGE; PREDICTION; SEED DISPERSAL; TREE;

CLIMATES; FORECASTS; FORESTRY; MODELS;

EID: 84902980747     PISSN: 13648152     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.05.025     Document Type: Article

References (62)

1. Aber J.D., Ollinger S.V., Driscoll C.T., Likens G.E., Holmes R.T., Freuder R.J., Goodale C.L. Inorganic N losses from a forested ecosystem in response to physical, chemical, biotic and climatic perturbations. Ecosystems 2002, 5:648-658.
2. Anderson L.O., Malhi Y., Ladle R.J., Aragao L.E.O.C., Shimabukuro Y., Phillips O.L., Baker T., Costa A.C.L., Espejo J.S., Higuchi N., Laurance W.F., Lopez-Gonzalez G., Monteagudo A., Nunez-Vargas P., Peacock J., Quesada C.A., Almeida S. Influence of landscape heterogeneity on spatial patterns of wood productivity, wood specific density and above ground biomass in Amazonia. Biogeosciences 2009, 6:1883-1902.
3. Araújo M.B., Luoto M. The importance of biotic interactions for modeling species distributions under climate change. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 2007, 16:743-753.
4. Asner G.P., Wessman C.A., Archer S. Scale dependence of absorption of photosynthetically active radiation in terrestrial ecosystems. Ecol. Appl. 1998, 8:1003-1021.
5. Austin M.P. Spatial prediction of species distribution: an interface between ecological theory and statistical modelling. Ecol. Model. 2002, 157:101-118.
6. Baeza S., Lezama F., Pineiro G., Altesor A., Paruelo J.M. Spatial variability of above-ground net primary production in Uruguayan grasslands: a remote sensing approach. Appl. Veg. Sci. 2010, 13:72-85.
7. Bailey D., Billeter R., Aviron S., Schweiger O., Herzog F. The influence of thematic resolution on metric selection for biodiversity monitoring in agricultural landscapes. Landsc. Ecol. 2007, 22:461-473.
8. Bennett N.D., Croke B.F.W., Guariso G., Guillaume J.H.A., Hamilton S.H., Jakeman A.J., Marsili-Libelli S., Newham L.T.H., Norton J.P., Perrin C., Pierce S.A., Robson B., Seppelt R., Voinov A.A., Fath B.D., Andreassian V. Characterising performance of environmental models. Environ. Model. Softw. 2013, 40:1-20.
9. Chen J.Q., Bradshaw G.A. Forest structure in space: a case study of an old growth spruce-fir forest in Changbaishan Natural Reserve, PR China. For. Ecol. Manag. 1999, 120:219-233.
10. Clark J.S., Fastie C., Hurtt G., Jackson S.T., Johnson C., King G.A., Lewis M., Lynch J., Pacala S., Prentice C., Schupp E.W., Webb T., Wyckoff P. Reid's paradox of rapid plant migration - dispersal theory and interpretation of paleoecological records. Bioscience 1998, 48:13-24.
11. Currie W.S., Aber J.D. Modeling leaching as a decomposition process in humid Montane forests. Ecology 1997, 78:1844-1860.
12. Fahrig L., Baudry J., Brotons L., Burel F.G., Crist T.O., Fuller R.J., Sirami C., Siriwardena G.M., Martin J.L. Functional landscape heterogeneity and animal biodiversity in agricultural landscapes. Ecol. Lett. 2011, 14:101-112.
13. Fan W.H., Randolph J.C., Ehman J.L. Regional estimation of nitrogen mineralization in forest ecosystems using geographic information systems. Ecol. Appl. 1998, 8:734-747.
14. Fang J.Y., Chen A.P., Peng C.H., Zhao S.Q., Ci L.J. Changes in forest biomass carbon storage in China between 1949 and 1998. Science 2001, 292.
15. Flato G.M., Boer G.J. Warming asymmetry in climate change simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2001, 28:195-198.
16. Hamann A., Wang T.L. Potential effects of climate change on ecosystem and tree species distribution in British Columbia. Ecology 2006, 87:2773-2786.
17. Han Y.Z., Wang Z.Q. Spatial heterogeneity and forest regeneration. J.Appl. Ecol. 2002, 13:615-619.
18. Hao Z.Q., Dai L.M., He H.S., Mladenoff D.J., Shao G.F. Potential response of major tree species to climate warming in Chingbai Mountain. Chin. J. Appl. Ecol. 2001, 12:653-658.
19. Hao Z.Q., Zhang J., Li B.H., Ye J., Wang X.G., Yao X.L. Natural secondary poplar-birch forest in Changbai Mountain: species composition and community structure. J.Plant Ecol. 2008, 32:251-261.
20. He H.S., Hao Z.Q., Larsen D.R., Dai L.M., Hu Y.M., Chang Y. Asimulation study of landscape scale forest succession in northeastern China. Ecol. Model. 2002, 156:153-166.
21. He H.S., Hao Z.Q., Mladenoff D.J., Shao G.F., Hu Y.M., Chang Y. Simulating forest ecosystem response to climate warming incorporating spatial effects in north-eastern China. J.Biogeogr 2005, 32:2043-2056.
22. He H.S., Mladenoff D.J. Effects of seed dispersal in the simulation of long-term forest landscape change. Ecosystems 1999, 2:308-319.
23. He H.S., Mladenoff D.J., Crow T.R. Linking an ecosystem model and a landscape model to study forest species response to climate warming. Ecol. Model. 1999, 112:213-233.
24. He H.S., White S.K., Nigh T.A. Validating landtype associations using forest inventory and analysis data and neutral landscape models. Landsc. Ecol. 2010, 25:761-774.
25. Hermy M., Verheyen K. Legacies of the past in the present-day forest biodiversity: a review of past land-use effects on forest plant species composition and diversity. Ecol. Res. 2007, 22:361-371.
26. Higgins S.I., Richardson D.M. Predicting plant migration rates in a changing world: the role of long-distance dispersal. Am. Nat. 1999, 153:464-475.
27. Huber M.O., Eastaugh C.S., Gschwantner T., Hasenauer H., Kindermann G., Ledermann T., Lexer M.J., Rammera W., Schörghuber S., Sterba H. Comparing simulations of three conceptually different forest models with National Forest Inventory data. Environ. Model. Softw. 2013, 40:88-97.
28. Hurtt G.C., Pacala S.W. The consequences of recruitment limitation: reconciling chance, history and competitive differences between plants. J.Theor. Biol. 1995, 176:1-12.
29. Iverson L.R., Prasad A., Schwartz M.W. Modeling potential future individual tree-species distributions in the eastern United States under a climate change scenario: a case study with Pinus virginiana. Ecol. Model. 1999, 15:77-93.
30. Jansen M., Bredemeier M. Interdisciplinary forest ecosystem experiments at Solling, Germany - from plot scale to landscape level integration. For. Snow Landsc. Res. 2004, 78:33-52.
31. Jenkins J.C., Birdsey R.A., Pan Y. Biomass and NPP estimation for the mid-Atlantic region (USA) using plot-level forest inventory data. Ecol. Appl. 2001, 11:1174-1193.
32. Jenkins J.C., Kicklighter D.W., Ollinger S.V., Aber J.D., Melillo J.M. Sources of variability in net primary production predictions at a regional scale: a comparison using PnET-II and TEM 4.0 in northeastern US forests. Ecosystems 1999, 2:555-570.
33. Kolasa J., Rollo C.D. The heterogeneity of heterogeneity: a glossary. Ecological Heterogeneity 1991, 1-23. Springer. J. Kolasa, S.T.A. Pickett (Eds.).
34. Li H., Reynolds J.F. On definition and quantification of heterogeneity. Oikos 1995, 73:280-284.
35. Liang Y., He H.S., Bu R.C., Hu Y.M., Shao G.F. Are plot data effective for landscape prediction: a simulation study of tree species response to climate warming under varying environmental heterogeneity. Ann. For. Sci. 2011, 68:899-909.
36. Liang Y., He H.S., Fraser S.J., Wu Z.W. Thematic and spatial resolutions affect model-based predictions of tree species distribution. Plos One 2013, 8:e67889.
37. Liang Y., He H.S., Lewis B.L. Responses of tree species to climate warming at different spatial scales. Chin. Geogr. Sci. 2011, 21:1-10.
38. Liang Y., He H.S., Yang J., Wu Z.W. Coupling ecosystem and landscape models to study the effects of plot number and location on prediction of forest landscape change. Landsc. Ecol. 2012, 27:1031-1044.
39. Liu Q.J. Structure and dynamics of the subalpine coniferous forest on Changbai mountain, China. Plant Ecol. 1997, 132:97-105.
40. Mladenoff D.J., He H.S. Design and behaviour of LANDIS, an object-oriented model of forest landscape disturbance and succession. Advances in Spatial Modeling of Forest Landscape Change: Approaches and Applications 1999, 125-162. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. D.J. Mladenoff, W.L. Baker (Eds.).
41. Pan Y.D., Birdsey R.A., Fang J.Y., Houghton R., Kauppi P.E., Kurz W.A., Phillips O.L., Shvidenko A., Lewis S.L., Canadell J.G., Ciais P., Jackson R.B., Pacala S.W., McGuire A.D., Piao S.L., Rautiainen A., Sitch S., Hayes D. Alarge and persistent carbon sink in the world's forests. Science 2011, 8:988-993.
42. Post W.M., Pastor J. Linkages - an individual-based forest ecosystem model. Clim. Change 1996, 34:253-261.
43. Shao G.F., Bugmann H., Yan X.D. Acomparative analysis of the structure and behavior of three gap models at sites in northeastern China 2001, 51:3-4.
44. Shao G.F., Schall P., Wishampel J.F. Dynamic simulations of mixed broadleaved-Pinus koraiensis forests in the Changbaishan Biosphere Reserve of China. Ecol. Manag. 1994, 70:169-181.
45. Shao G.F., Yan X.D., Bugmann H. Sensitivities of species compositions of the mixed forest in eastern Eurasian continent to climate change. Glob. Planet. Change 2003, 37:307-313.
46. Shao G.F., Zhao G., Shugart H.H., Wang S., Schaller J. Forest cover types derived from Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery for the Changbai Mountain area of China. Can. J. For. Res. 1996, 26:206-216.
47. Stone R. Ecology - a threatened nature reserve breaks down Asian borders. Science 2006, 313:1379-1380.
48. Turner M.G., O'Neill R.V., Gardner R.H., Milne B.T. Effects of changing spatial scale on the analysis of landscape pattern. Landsc. Ecol. 1989, 3:153-162.
49. Tylianakis J.M., Didham R.K., Bascompte J., Wardle D.A. Global change and species interactions in terrestrial ecosystems. Ecol. Lett. 2008, 11:1351-1363.
50. Wang X.G., Hao Z.Q., Zhang J., Lian J.Y., Li B.H., Lin X.Y. Tree size distributions in an old-growth temperate forest. Oikos 2009, 118:25-36.
51. Wang Z., Xu Z., Tan Z., Dai H., Li X. The main forest types and their features of community structure in northern slope of Changbai Mountain. For. Ecosys. Res. 1980, 1:25-42.
52. Wickhamm J.D., Riitters K.H. Sensitivity of landscape metrics to pixel size. J.Remote Sens. 1995, 16:3585-3594.
53. Williams M., Shimabukuro Y.E., Herbert D.A., Lacruz S.P., Renno C., Rastetter E.B. Heterogeneity of soils and vegetation in an eastern Amazonian rain forest: implications for scaling up biomass and production. Ecosystems 2002, 5:692-704.
54. Xu C.G., Gertner G.Z., Scheller R.M. Importance of colonization and competition in forest landscape response to global climatic change. Clim. Change 2012, 110:53-83.
55. Xu C.G., He H.S., Hu Y.M., Chang Y., Larsen D.R., Li X.Z., Bu R.C. Assessing the effect of cell-level uncertainty on a forest landscape model simulation in northeastern China. Ecol. Model. 2004, 180:57-72.
56. Xu C.G., He H.S., Hu Y.M., Chang Y., Li X.Z., Bu R.C. Latin hypercube sampling and geostatistical modeling of spatial uncertainty in a spatially explicit forest landscape model simulation. Ecol. Model. 2005, 185:255-269.
57. Yan X.D., Zhao S.D. Simulating sensitivities of Changbai Mountain forests to potential climate change. J.Environ. Sci. 1996, 8:354-366.
58. Yu D.P., Zhou L., Dong B.L., Dai L.M., Wang Q.L. Structure and dynamics of Betula ermanii population on the Northern slope of Changbai Mountain. Chin. J. Ecol. 2004, 23:30-34.
59. Zeleny D., Li C.F., Chytry M. Pattern of local plant species richness along a gradient of landscape topographical heterogeneity: result of spatial mass effect or environmental shift?. Ecography 2010, 33:578-589.
60. Zhao S.D., Yan X.D., Yang S.H., Tao D.L., Dai L.M. Simulating responses of northeastern China forests to potential climate change 1998, 9(3).
61. Zhao S.Q., Fang J.Y., Zong Z.J., Zhu B., Shen H.H. Composition, structure and species diversity of plant communities along an altitudinal gradient on the northern slope of Mt. Changbai, Northeast China. Chin. Biodivers. 2004, 12:164-173.
62. Zielinski G.A., Mayewski P.A., Meeker L.D., Whitlow S., Twickler M.S., Morrison M., Meese D.A., Gow A.J., Alley R.B. Record of volcanism since 7000 B.C. from the GISP Greenland ice core and implications for the volcano-climate system. Science 1994, 264:948-952.