Modeling potential future individual tree-species distributions in the eastern united states under a climate change scenario: A case study with Pinus virginiana

Ecological Modelling

Volumn 115, Issue 1, 1999, Pages 77-93

  Iverson, Louis R ^a   Prasad, Anantha ^a   Schwartz, Mark W ^b  

^a Forest Serv NE Res Stn 359 M   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

Author keywords

Climate change; FIA; GIS; Landscape ecology; Migration; Model; Regression tree analysis; Species distribution

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; ECOLOGICAL MODELING; SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION; TREE;

UNITED STATES;

PINUS VIRGINIANA;

EID: 0033082620     PISSN: 03043800     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/S0304-3800(98)00200-2     Document Type: Article

References (71)

1. Altman P.L., Dittmer D.S. Growth including reproduction and morphological development. 1962;Federation of American Societies for Experimental Biology, Washington, DC.
2. Barry J.P., Baxter C.H., Sagarin R.D., Gilman S.E. Climate-related, long-term faunal changes in a California rocky intertidal community. Science. 267:1995;672-675.
3. Botkin D.B., Nisbet R.A. Projecting the effects of climate change on biological diversity in forests. Peters R.L., Lovejoy T.E. Global warming and biological diversity. 1992;277-293 Yale University Press, New Haven, CT.
4. Breiman L., Freidman J., Olshen R., Stone C. Classification and regression trees. 1984;Wadsworth, Belmont, CA.
5. Burton P.J., Cumming S.G. Potential effects of climatic change on some western Canadian forests, based on phenological enhancements to a patch model of forest succession, Water. Air and Soil Pollution. 82:1995;401-414.
6. Carter, K.K., Snow, A.G., Jr 1990. Pinus virginiana Mill. Virginia pine. In: Burns, R.M. and Honkala, B.H. (Eds.), Silvics of North America. Volume 1. Conifers. US Department of Agriculture, Agriculture Handbook 654. Washington, DC, pp. 513-519.
7. Clark J.S. Why trees migrate so fast: confronting theory with dispersal biology and the paleorecord. Am. Nat. 152:1998;204-224.
8. Clark J.S., Fastie C., Hurtt G., Jackson S.T., Johnson C., King G., Lewis M., Lynch J., Pacala S., Prentice I.C. Reid's Paradox of rapid plant migration. BioScience. 48:1998;13-24.
9. Clark L.A., Pergibon D. Tree-based models. Hastie T.J. Statistical models in S. 1992;377-419 Wadsworth, CA, Pacific Grove, CA.
10. Collingham Y.C., Hill M.O., Huntley B. The migration of sessile organisms: a simulation model with measurable parameters. J. Vegetation Sci. 7:1996;831-846.
11. COHMAP, 1988. Climatic changes of the last 18 000 years: observations and model simulations. Science 241:1043-1052.
12. Coope G.R. Fossil coleopteran assemblages as sensitive indicators of climatic changes during the Devensian (last) cold stage. Phil. Trans. Royal Soc. Lond. B Biol. Sci. 280:1977;313-340.
13. Coope G.R. Late Cenezoic fossil Coleoptera: evolution, biogeography, and ecology. Ann. Rev. Ecol. Syst. 10:1979;247-267.
14. Davis M.B. Quaternary history and the stability of forest communities. West D.C., Shugart H.H. Forest succession. 1981;132-153 Springer-Verlag, NY.
15. Davis M.B. Lags in vegetation response to greenhouse warming. Clim. Change. 15:1989;75-82.
16. Davis M., Sugita S. Patterns and mechanisms of plant migration and plant distribution in the Quaternary. Bull. Ecol. Soc. Amer. 78:1997;11.
17. Davis M.B., Zabinski C. Changes in geographical range resulting from greenhouse warming: effects on biodiversity in forests. Peters R.L., Lovejoy T.E. Global warming and biological diversity. 1992;297-308 Yale University Press, New Haven, CT.
18. Delcourt H.R., Delcourt P.A. Quaternary landscape ecology: relevant scales in space and time. Landsc. Ecol. 2:1988;23-44.
19. Dyer J.M. Implications of habitat fragmentation on climate change-induced forest migration. Prof. Geogr. 46:1994;449-459.
20. Dyer J. M. Assessment of climatic warming using a model of forest species migration. Ecol. Modell. 79:1995;199-219.
21. Environmental Systems Research Institute, 1993. Arc/Info GRID command reference. Environmental Systems Research Institute, Redlands, CA.
22. Flannigan M.D., Woodward F.I. Red pine abundance: current climatic control and responses to future warming. Can. J. Forest Res. 24:1994;1166-1175.
23. Foley J.A., Prentice I.C., Ramankutty N., Levis S., Pollard D., Sitch S., Haxeltine A. An integrated biosphere model of land surface processes, terrestrial carbon balance and vegetation dynamics. Global Biogeo. Cycles. 10:1996;603-628.
24. Hansen J., Fung I., Lacis A., Rind D., Lebedeff S., Ruedy R. Global climate changes as forecast by Goddard Institute for Space Studies three-dimensional model. J. Geophysical Res. 93:1988;9341-9364.
25. Hansen, M.H., Frieswyk, T., Glover, J.F., Kelly, J.F. 1992. The eastwide forest inventory data base: users manual. US Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, North Central Forest Experiment Station. Gen. Tech. Rep. NC-151.
26. Hobbs R.J. Dynamics of vegetation mosaics: Can we predict responses to global change? EcoScience. 1:1994;346-356.
27. Houghton J.T., Meira Filho L.G., Callander B.A., Harris N., Kattenberg A., Maskell K. Climate change 1995: the science of climate change. 1996;Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
28. Hughes L., Cawsey E.M., Westoby M. Climatic range sizes of Eucalyptus species in relation to future climate change. Global Ecol. Biogeog. Lett. 5:1996;23-29.
29. Huntley, B. 1991. How plants respond to climate change: migration rates, individualism and the consequences for plant communities. Ann. Bot. 67 (Suppl.), 15-22.
30. Iverson, L.R., Prasad, A., Scott, C.T. 1996. Preparation of forest inventory and analysis (FIA) and state soil geographic data base (STATSGO) data for global change research in the eastern United States. In: Hom, J., Birdsey, R., O'Brian, K. (Eds.) Proceedings, 1995 meeting of the northern global change program. US Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northeastern Forest Experiment Station, Gen. Tech. Rep. NE-214, pp. 209-214.
31. Iverson L.R., Prasad A. Predicting potential future abundance of 80 tree species following climate change in the eastern United States. Ecol. Monogr. 68:1998;465-485.
32. Iverson, L.R., Prasad, A.M., Hale, B.J., Sutherland, E.K. 1998. An atlas of current and potential future distributions of common trees of the eastern United States. Northeastern Research Station, USDA Forest Service, General Technical Report (in press).
33. Kattenberg A., Giorgi F., Grassl H., Meehl G.A., Mitchell J.F.B., Stouffer R.J., Tokioka T., Weaver A.J., Wigley T.M.L. Climate models - projections of future climate. Houghton J.T., Meira-Filho L.G., Callander B.A., Harris N., Kattenberg A., Maskell K. Climate change 1995: the science of climate change. 1996;285-357 University Press, Cambridge, UK.
34. Lauenroth W.K. Application of patch models to examine regional sensitivity to climate change. Climatic Change. 34:1996;155-160.
35. Little, E.L. 1971. Atlas of United States trees. Volume 1. Conifers and important hardwoods. US Department of Agriculture Forest Service. Miscellaneous Publication 1146.
36. Loehle C., LeBlanc D. Model-based assessments of climate change effects on forests: a critical review. Ecol. Modell. 90:1996;1-31.
37. MacCracken M.C. The evidence mounts up. Nature. 376:1995;645-646.
38. Malanson G.P. Comment on modeling ecological response to climatic change. Climatic Change. 23:1993;95-105.
39. Malanson G.P., Armstrong M.P. Dispersal probability and forest diversity in a fragmented landscape. Ecol. Modell. 87:1996;91-102.
40. McGarigal, K. and Marks, B.J. 1995. FRAGSTATS: spatial pattern analysis program for quantifying landscape structure. US Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, USDA Forest Service. Portland, OR. General Technical Report PNW-GTR-351.
41. Michaelsen J., Schimel D.S., Friedl M.A., Davis F.W., Dubayah R.C. Regression tree analysis of satellite and terrain data to guide vegetation sampling and surveys. J. Vegetation Sci. 5:1994;673-686.
42. Neilson R.P. A model for predicting continental-scale vegetation distribution and water balance. Ecol. Appl. 5(2):1995;362-385.
43. Nicholls N. An incriminating fingerprint. Nature. 382:1996;27-28.
44. Olson, R.J., Emerson, C.J., Nungesser, M.K. 1980. Geoecology: a county level environmental data base for the conterminous United States. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge, TN. Publication No. 1537.
45. Overpeck J.T., Bartlein P.J., Webb T. III. Potential magnitude of future vegetation change in Eastern North America: comparisons with the past. Science. 254:1991;692-695.
46. Parmesan C. Climate and species range. Nature. 382:1996;765-766.
47. Peters, R.L., Lovejoy, T.E. (Eds.). 1992. Global warming and biological diversity. Yale University Press, New Haven, CT.
48. Pitelka, L.F. and Plant Migration Workshop Group, 1997. Plant migration and climate change. Am. Sci. 85:464-473.
49. Portnoy S., Willson M.F. Seed dispersal curves: behavior of the tail of the distribution. Evol. Ecol. 7:1993;25-44.
50. Powell, D.S., Faulkner, J.L., Darr, D.R. Zhu, Z., MacCleery, D.W. 1993. Forest resources of the United States, 1992. Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station. Ft. Collins, CO, Gen. Tech. Rep. RM-234.
51. Prasad, A., Iverson, L.R. 1997. Modelling tree distributions in eastern United States using Arc/Info GIS and S-PLUS statistical package. Proceedings, 1997 Arc/Info conference. Environmental Systems Research Institute, Redlands, CA. http://www.esri.com/base/common/userconf/proc97/PROC97/to200/PAP200/p200.htm.
52. Prentice I.C., Cramer W., Harrison S.P., Leemans R., Monserud R.A., Solomon A.M. A global biome model based on plant physiology and dominance, soil properties and climate. J. Biogeogr. 19:1992;117-134.
53. Rastetter E.B. Validating models of ecosystem response to global change. BioScience. 46:1996;190-197.
54. Rykiel E.J. Testing ecological models: The meaning of validation. Ecol. Modell. 90:1996;229-244.
55. Schneider S.H., Root T.L. Ecological implications of climate change will include surprises. Biodivers. Conserv. 5:1996;1109-1120.
56. Schulze R.E., Kunz R.P. Potential shifts in optimum growth areas of selected commercial tree species and subtropical crops in southern Africa due to global warming. J. Biogeogr. 22:1995;679-688.
57. Schwartz M.W. Modeling the effect of habitat loss on potential rates of range change for trees in response to global warming. Biodivers. Conserv. 2:1992;51-61.
58. Shriner D.S., Street R.B. North America. Watson R.T., Zinyowera M.C., Moss R.H. The regional impacts of climate change. 1998;253-330 Cambridge University Press, New York, NY.
59. Statistical Sciences. 1993. S-PLUS guide to statistical and mathematical analysis, vers. 3.2. Statistical Sciences, Seattle, WA.
60. Starfield A.M., Chapin F.S. Model of transient changes in arctic and boreal vegetation in response to climate and land use change. Ecol. Appl. 6:1996;842-864.
61. Sykes M.T., Prentice I.C., Cramer W. A bioclimatic model for the potential distributions of north European tree species under present and future climates. J. Biogeogr. 23:1996;203-234.
62. US Department of Agriculture, Soil Conservation Service, 1991. State soil geographic data base (STATSGO) data users guide. US Department of Agriculture, Soil Conservation Service, Miscellaneous Publication 1492.
63. 2 predictions for long-term mean monthly temperature, vapor pressure, wind velocity and potential evapotranspiration from the Regional Water Balance Model and precipitation from the PRISM model, for the conterminous United States. Digital raster data on a 10×10 km, 470×295 Albers Equal Area grid, in Image Processing Workbench format. US Environmental Protection Agency, Environmental Research Laboratory. Corvallis, OR.
64. US Geological Survey. 1987. Digital elevation models: US Geological Survey data user's guide 5. US Geological Survey, Reston, VA.
65. 2 doubling. Global Biogeochem. Cycles 9, 407-437.
66. Webb, T. III, Bartlein, P.J., Kutzbach, J.E. 1987. Climatic change in eastern North America during the past 18 000 years: comparisons of pollen data with model results. In: Wright, W.F., Wright, H.E., Jr (Eds.), North America and adjacent oceans during the last deglaciation. Geological Society of America, Boulder, CO, pp. 447-462.
67. Webb III T. Past changes in vegetation and climate: lessons for the future. Peters R.L., Lovejoy T.E. Global warming and biological diversity. 1992;59-75 Yale University Press, New Haven, CT.
68. Wetherald R.T., Manabe S. Cloud feedback processes in a general circulation model. J. Atmosph. Sci. 45:1988;1397-1415.
69. Woodward F.I. Climate and plant distribution. 1987;Cambridge University Press, NY.
70. Woodward F.I. Tansley Review no. 41. Predicting plant responses to global environmental change. New Phytol. 122:1992;239-251.
71. Zhu Z., Evans D.L. US forest types and predicted percent forest cover from AVHRR data. Photogram. Eng. Remote Sens. 60:1994;525-531.