World drought frequency, duration, and severity for 1951-2010

International Journal of Climatology

Volumn 34, Issue 8, 2014, Pages 2792-2804

  Spinoni, Jonathan ^a   Naumann, Gustavo ^a   Carrao, Hugo ^a   Barbosa, Paulo ^a   Vogt, Jürgen ^a  

^a JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE   (Italy)

Author keywords

Climate change; Drought; Precipitation; SPI; Trends; World

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; PRECIPITATION (CHEMICAL);

EXTREME PRECIPITATION; GLOBAL PRECIPITATION; LINEAR TREND ANALYSIS; MEDITERRANEAN REGION; SPI; STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX; TRENDS; WORLD;

DROUGHT;

CLIMATE CHANGE; DROUGHT; EXTREME EVENT; FREQUENCY ANALYSIS; NORTHERN HEMISPHERE; PRECIPITATION ASSESSMENT; PRECIPITATION INTENSITY; TREND ANALYSIS;

ARGENTINA; AUSTRALIA; CHILE; CHINA; CONGO BASIN; MONGOLIA; PAMPAS; RUSSIAN FEDERATION; SAHEL [SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA]; SIBERIA; UNITED STATES;

EID: 84902677326     PISSN: 08998418     EISSN: 10970088     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/joc.3875     Document Type: Article

References (85)

1. Agnew CT. 2000. Using the SPI to identify drought. Drought Netw. News 12: 6-12.
2. Allen RG, Pereira LS, Raes D, Smith M. 1998. Crop evapotranspiration: Guidelines for computing crop water requirements. Irrigation and Drainage Paper No 56, UN-FAO, Rome.
3. Andreadis KM, Clark EA, Wood AW, Hamlet AF, Lettenmaier DP. 2005. Twentieth-century drought in the conterminous United States. J. Hydrometeorol. 6(6): 985-1001.
4. Becker A, Finger P, Meyer-Christoffer A, Rudolf B, Schamm K, Schneider U, Ziese M. 2013. A decription of the global land-surface precipitation data products of the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre with sample applications including centennial (trend) analysis from 1901-present. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 5: 71-99.
5. Burke EJ, Brown SJ, Christidis N. 2006. Modeling the recent evolution of global drought and projections for the twenty-first century with the Hadley Centre Climate Model. J. Hydrometeorol. 7: 1113-1125.
6. Cancelliere A, Di Mauro G, Bonaccorso B, Rossi G. 2007. Drought forecasting using the standardized precipitation index. Water Resour. Manage. 21(5): 801-819.
7. Charney JG. 1975. Dynamics of deserts and drought in the Sahel. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 101: 193-202.
8. Dai A. 2011. Drought under global warming: a review. WIREs: Clim. Change 2(1): 45-65.
9. Dai A, Trenberth KE, Qian T. 2004. A global dataset of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870-2002: relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming. J. Hydrometeorol. 5(6): 1117-1130.
10. Damberg L. 2013. Analysis of Trends and Patterns of Droughts Using Satellite Data and Climate Model Simulations. Avd för Teknisk Vattenresurslära, TVVRYY/500n, ISSN 1101-9824, http://www.lunduniversity.lu.se/o.o.i.s?id=24923&postid=3458772
11. Dracup JA, Lee KS, Paulson EG Jr. 1980. On the definition of droughts. Water Resour. Res. 16(2): 297-302.
12. Edwards DC, McKee TB. 1997. Characteristics of 20th century drought in the United States at multiple timescales. Colorado State University: Fort Collins. Climatology Report No. 97-2.
13. EM-DAT. 2013, http://www.emdat.be/disaster-list.
14. Garcia-Herrera R, Hernández E, Barriopedro D, Paredes D, Trigo RM, Trigo IF, Mendes MA. 2007. The outstanding 2004/05 drought in the Iberian Peninsula: associated atmospheric circulation. J. Hydrometeorol. 8(3): 483-498.
15. Gosset WS. 1908. The probable error of a mean. Biometrika 6(1): 1-25.
16. Guttman NB. 1999. Accepting the standardized precipitation index: a calculation algorithm. J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc. 35(2): 311-322.
17. Heim RR Jr. 2002. A review of twentieth-century drought indices used in the United States. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 83(8): 1149-1165.
18. Henricksen BL, Durkin JW. 1986. Growing period and drought early warning in Africa using satellite data. Int. J. Remote Sens. 7(11): 1583-1608.
19. Hoerling M, Eischeid J, Perlwitz J, Quan X, Zhang T, Pegion P. 2012. On the increased frequency of Mediterranean drought. J. Clim. 25(6): 2146-2161.
20. Horridge M, Madden J, Wittwer G. 2005. The impact of the 2002-2003 drought on Australia. J. Policy Model. 27(3): 285-308.
21. IPCC. 2007. Climate Change 2007-The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, Vol. 4, Solomon S (ed). Cambridge University Press: Cambridge and New York, NY.
22. Keyantash J, Dracup JA. 2002. The quantification of drought: an evaluation of drought indices. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 83(8): 1167-1180.
23. Kogan FN. 1997. Global drought watch from space. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 78(4): 621-636.
24. Kurnik B, Barbosa P, Vogt J. 2011. Testing two different precipitation datasets to compute the standardized precipitation index over the Horn of Africa. Int. J. Remote Sens. 32(21): 5947-5964.
25. Laraque A, Mahé G, Orange D, Marieu B. 2001. Spatiotemporal variations in hydrological regimes within Central Africa during the XXth century. J. Hydrol. 245(1): 104-117.
26. Li MS, Li S, Li YH. 2003. Studies on drought in the past 50 years in China. Chin. J. Agrometeorol. 1: 002.
27. Liu W, Gou X, Yang M, Zhang Y, Fang K, Yang T, Jin L. 2009. Drought reconstruction in the Qilian Mountains over the last two centuries and its implications for large-scale moisture patterns. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 26(4): 621-629.
28. Lloyd-Hughes B, Saunders MA. 2002. A drought climatology for Europe. Int. J. Climatol. 22(13): 1571-1592.
29. Marengo JA, Nobre CA, Tomasella J, Oyama MD, De Oliveira GS, De Oliveira R, Camargo H, Alves LM, Brown IF. 2008. The drought of Amazonia in 2005. J. Clim. 21(3): 495-516.
30. Marengo JA, Tomasella J, Alves LM, Soares WR, Rodriguez DA. 2011. The drought of 2010 in the context of historical droughts in the Amazon region. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38(12): L12703.
31. McKee TB, Doeskin NJ, Kleist J. 1993. The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. In Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology. American Meteorological Society: Boston, MA; 179-184.
32. McKee TB, Doeskin NJ, Kleist J. 1995. Proceedings of the 9th Conference on Applied Climatology. American Meteorological Society: Boston, MA; 233-236.
33. McVicar TR, Bierwirth PN. 2001. Rapidly assessing the 1997 drought in Papua New Guinea using composite AVHRR imagery. Int J Remote Sens 22(11): 2109-2128.
34. Meshcherskaya AV, Blazhevich VG. 1997. The drought and excessive moisture indices in a historical perspective in the principal grain-producing regions of the former Soviet Union. J. Clim. 10(10): 2670-2682.
35. Min SK, Kwon WT, Park E, Choi Y. 2003. Spatial and temporal comparisons of droughts over Korea with East Asia. Int. J. Climatol. 23(2): 223-233.
36. Mishra AK, Singh VP. 2010. A review of drought concepts. J. Hydrol. 391(1): 202-216.
37. Mishra AK, Singh VP, Desai VR. 2009. Drought characterization: a probabilistic approach. Stoch. Environ. Res. Risk Assess. 23(1): 41-55.
38. Mitchell TD, Jones PD. 2005. An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. Int. J. Climatol. 25(6): 693-712.
39. Mpelasoka F, Hennessy K, Jones R, Bates B. 2008. Comparison of suitable drought indices for climate change impacts assessment over Australia towards resource management. Int. J. Climatol. 28(10): 1283-1292.
40. National Geographic Societyed. 2010. National Geographic Atlas of the World, 9th edn. National Geographic Society ISBN-10: 1426206348, ISBN-13: 978-1426206344: Washington, DC.
41. Naumann G, Barbosa P, Carrao H, Singleton A, Vogt J. 2012. Monitoring drought conditions and their uncertainties in Africa using TRMM data. J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. 51(10): 1867-1874.
42. Nicholls N. 2004. The changing nature of Australian droughts. Clim. Change 63(3): 323-336.
43. Ntale HK, Gan TY. 2003. Drought indices and their application to East Africa. Int. J. Climatol. 23(11): 1335-1357.
44. Palmer WC, 1965. Meteorologic drought. U.S. Weather Bureau Research Paper 45, 58.
45. Panu US, Sharma TC. 2002. Challenges in drought research: some perspectives and future directions. Hydrolog. Sci. J. 47(S1): S19-S30.
46. Paulo AA, Ferreira E, Coelho C, Pereira LS. 2005. Drought class transition analysis through Markov and loglinear models, an approach to early warning. Agric. Water Manage. 77(1): 59-81.
47. Pietzsch S, Bissolli P. 2011. A modified drought index for WMO RA VI. Adv. Sci. Res. 6: 275-279.
48. Pozzi W, Sheffield J, Stefanski R, Cripe D, Pulwarty R, Vogt J, Heim R, Brewer MJ, Svoboda M, Westerhoff R, van Dijk A, Lloyd-Hughes B, Pappenberger F, Werner M, Dutra E, Wetterhall F, Wagner W, Schubert S, Mo K, Nicholson M, Bettio L, Nuñez L, van Beek R, Bierkens M, Goncalves LG, Zell de Mattos JG, Lawford R. 2013. Toward global drought early warning capability. Expanding International Cooperation for the Development of a Framework for Monitoring and Forecasting. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS), BAMS-D-11-00176, http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00176
49. Prabhakar SVRK, Shaw R. 2008. Climate change adaptation implications for drought risk mitigation: a perspective for India. Clim. Change 88(2): 113-130.
50. Raziei T, Bordi I, Pereira LS. 2011. An application of GPCC and NCEP/NCAR datasets for drought variability analysis in Iran. Water Resour Manage. 25(4): 1075-1086.
51. Rebetez M, Mayer H, Dupont O, Schindler D, Gartner K, Kropp JP, Menzel A. 2006. Heat and drought 2003 in Europe: a climate synthesis. Ann. For. Sci. 63(6): 569-577.
52. Rouault M, Richard Y. 2003. Intensity and spatial extension of drought in South Africa at different time scales. Water SA 29(4): 489-500.
53. Scian B, Donnari M. 1997. Retrospective analysis of the Palmer Drought Severity Index in the semi-arid Pampas region, Argentina. Int. J. Climatol. 17(3): 313-322.
54. Sheffield J, Wood EF. 2007. Characteristics of global and regional drought, 1950-2000: Analysis of soil moisture data from off-line simulation of the terrestrial hydrologic cycle. J. Geophys.Res.: Atmospheres (1984-2012) 112(D17115): 1-21.
55. Sheffield J, Andreadis KM, Wood EF, Lettenmaier DP. 2009. Global and continental drought in the second half of the twentieth century: severity-area-duration analysis and temporal variability of large-scale events. J. Clim. 22(8): 1962-1981.
56. Sheffield J, Wood EF, Roderick ML. 2012. Little change in global drought over the past 60years. Nature 491(7424): 435-438.
57. Singleton A. 2012. Forecasting drought in Europe with the Standardized Precipitation Index. JRC Scientific and Technical Report, EUR 25254 EN, 68, DOI: 10.2788/16459.
58. Spinoni J, Antofie T, Barbosa P, Bihari Z, Lakatos M, Szalai S, Szentimrey S, Vogt J. 2013. An overview of drought events in the Carpathian Region in 1961-2010. Adv. Sci. Res. 10: 21-32.
59. Stagge J, Tallaksen L, Gudmundsson L, van Loon A, Stahl K. 2013. Pan-European comparison of candidate distributions for climatological drought indices, SPI and SPEI. Geophys. Res. (Abstracts) 15: EGU2013-9329.
60. Svoboda M, Lecomte D, Hayes M, Heim R, Gleason K, Angel J, Rippey B, Tinker R, Palecki M, Stooksbury D, Miskus D, Stephens S. 2002. The drought monitor. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 83: 1181-1190.
61. Szentimrey T. 1999. Multiple analysis of series for homogenization (MASH). In Proceedings of the Second Seminar for Homogenization of Surface Climatological Data, 27-46.
62. Thornthwaite CW. 1948. An approach toward a rational classification of climate. Geograph. Rev. 38(1): 55-94.
63. Tsakiris G, Vangelis H. 2004. Towards a drought watch system based on spatial SPI. Water Resour. Manage. 18(1): 1-12.
64. Tsakiris G, Pangalou D, Vangelis H. 2007. Regional drought assessment based on the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI). Water Resour. Manage. 21(5): 821-833.
65. UNEP. 1992. World Atlas of Desertification, Middleton NJ, Thomas DSG (eds). Edward Arnold: Sevenoaks, UK.
66. Van der Schrier G, Briffa KR, Jones PD, Osborn TJ. 2006. Summer moisture variability across Europe. J. Clim. 19(12): 2818-2834.
67. Van Nieuwstadt MG, Sheil D. 2005. Drought, fire and tree survival in a Borneo rain forest, East Kalimantan, Indonesia. J. Ecol. 93(1): 191-201.
68. Verstraete MM, Hutchinson CF, Grainger A, Stafford Smith M, Scholes RJ, Reynolds JF, Barbosa P, Leon A, Mbow C. 2011. Towards a global drylands observing system: observational requirements and institutional solutions. Land Degrad. Dev. 22(2): 198-213.
69. Vicente-Serrano SM, Beguería S, López-Moreno JI. 2010. A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. J. Clim. 23(7): 1696-1718.
70. Vogt JV, Somma F (eds). 2000. Drought and Drought Mitigation in Europe. Kluwer Academic Publishers: Dordrecht, The Netherlands; 336.
71. Vogt JV, Barbosa P, Hofer B, Magni D, De Jager A, Singleton A, Horion S, Sepulcre G, Micale F, Sokolova E, Calcagni L, Marioni M, Antofie TE. 2011a. Developing a European Drought Observatory for Monitoring, Assessing and Forecasting Droughts across the European Continent. In AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts 1, NH24A-07.
72. Vogt JV, Safriel U, Von Maltitz G, Sokona Y, Zougmore R, Bastin G, Hill J. 2011b. Monitoring and assessment of land degradation and desertification: towards new conceptual and integrated approaches. Land Degrad. Dev. 22(2): 150-165.
73. Wells N, Goddard S, Hayes MJ. 2004. A self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index. J. Clim. 17(12): 2335-2351.
74. Wheaton E, Kulshreshtha S, Wittrock V, Koshida G. 2008. Dry times: hard lessons from the Canadian drought of 2001 and 2002. Can Geogr 52(2): 241-262.
75. Wilhite DA. 1993. Drought Assessment, Management, and Planning: Theory and Case Studies. Kluwer Academic Publishers: Boston, MA; 293.
76. Wilhite DA, Glantz MH. 1985. Understanding: the drought phenomenon: the role of definitions. Water Int. 10(3): 111-120.
77. WMO. 2012. Standardized Precipitation Index User Guide (M. Svoboda, M. Hayes and D. Wood). WMO-No.1090, Geneva.
78. Wu H, Hayes MJ, Wilhite DA, Svoboda MD. 2005. The effect of the length of record on the standardized precipitation index calculation. Int. J. Climatol. 25(4): 505-520.
79. Yevjevich VM. 1967. An objective approach to definitions and investigations of continental hydrologic droughts. Hydrology Paper No. 23, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, 1967.
80. Yusof F, Hui-Mean F. 2012. Use of statistical distribution for drought analysis. Appl. Math. Sci. 6(21): 1031-1051.
81. Zanvettor R, Ravelo A. 2000. Using the SPI to monitor the 1999-2000 Drought in Northeastern Argentina. Drought Netw. News 12(4): 4.
82. Zeng N. 2003. Drought in the Sahel. Science 302(5647): 999-1000.
83. Zhai J, Su B, Krysanova V, Vetter T, Gao C, Jiang T. 2010. Spatial variation and trends in PDSI and SPI indices and their relation to streamflow in 10 large regions of China. J. Clim. 23(3): 649-663.
84. Zhang M, He J, Wang B, Wang S, Li S, Liu W, Ma X. 2013. Extreme drought changes in Southwest China from 1960 to 2009. J. Geograph. Sci. 23(1): 3-16.
85. Ziese M, Schneider U, Meyer-Christoffer A, Finger P, Schamm K, Becker A, Rudolf B. 2013. A combined drought index from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC). Geophys. Res. (Abstracts) 15: EGU2013-4158.