Propensity scores-potential outcomes framework to incorporate severity probabilities in the Highway Safety Manual crash prediction algorithm

Accident Analysis and Prevention

Volumn 71, Issue , 2014, Pages 183-193

  Sasidharan, Lekshmi ^a   Donnell, Eric T ^b  

^a ETH ZURICH   (Switzerland)

^b The Pennsylvania State University   (United States)

Author keywords

Causal model; Highway Safety Manual; Lighting; Potential outcome; Propensity score; Severity probability

Indexed keywords

ALGORITHMS; HIGHWAY ENGINEERING; LIGHTING; PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS; RISK PERCEPTION; SAFETY ENGINEERING; TRAFFIC CONTROL; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

AMERICAN ASSOCIATION OF STATE HIGHWAY AND TRANSPORTATION OFFICIALS; CAUSAL MODEL; HIGHWAY SAFETY; POTENTIAL OUTCOMES; PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE; PROPENSITY SCORE; SAFETY PERFORMANCE EVALUATION; SAFETY PERFORMANCE FUNCTION;

HIGHWAY ACCIDENTS;

ALGORITHM; ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING; HUMAN; ILLUMINATION; INJURY SCALE; MORTALITY; PROPENSITY SCORE; STATISTICAL MODEL; STATISTICS AND NUMERICAL DATA; TRAFFIC ACCIDENT;

ACCIDENTS, TRAFFIC; ALGORITHMS; ENVIRONMENT DESIGN; HUMANS; LIGHTING; LOGISTIC MODELS; PROPENSITY SCORE; TRAUMA SEVERITY INDICES;

EID: 84902656129     PISSN: 00014575     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2014.05.017     Document Type: Article

References (57)

1. American Association of State Highway Transportation Officials Highway Safety Manual, Washington, DC 2010
2. G. Bahar Methodology for the development and inclusion of crash modification factors in the first edition of the highway safety manual Transportation Research Circular E-C 142 2010 Transportation Research Board Washington, DC
3. W.G. Cochran The effectiveness of adjustment by subclassification in removing bias in observational studies Biometrics 24 1968 205 213
4. R.B. D'Agostino Jr. Propensity score methods for bias reduction in the comparison of a treatment to a non-randomized control group Stat. Med. 17 1998 2265 2281 (Pubitemid 28466823)
5. R. Dehejia, and S. Wahba Causal effects in non-experimental studies: re-evaluating the evaluation of training programs (Ph.D. dissertation) Econometric Methods for Program Evaluation 1997 Harvard University (Chapter 1)
6. R. Dehejia, and S. Wahba Propensity score matching methods for non-experimental causal studies Rev. Econ. Stat. 84 1 2002 151 161
7. E.T. Donnell, R.J. Porter, and V.N. Shankar A framework for estimating the safety effects of roadway lighting at intersections Saf. Sci. 48 10 2010 1436 1445
8. M.R. Elliott, and R.J.A. Little Model-based alternatives to trimming survey weights J. Off. Stat. 16 2000 191 209
9. R. Elvik Meta-analysis of evaluations of public lighting as accident countermeasure Transportation Research Record 1485 1995 Transportation Research Board, National Research Council Washington, DC 112 123
10. Federal Highway Administration Crash Modification Factor Clearinghouse 2013 Available at: http://www.cmfclearinghouse.org/ (accessed on 28.11.13)
11. A. Gelman, and X.L. Meng Applied Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference From Incomplete-data Perspectives 2004 Wiley New York
12. S. Greenland, and B. Brumback Theory and methods an overview of relations among causal modeling methods Int. J. Epidemiol. 31 2002 1030 1037 (Pubitemid 35446879)
13. F. Gross, and E.T. Donnell Case-control and cross-sectional methods for estimating crash modification factors: comparisons from roadway lighting and lane and shoulder width safety effect studies J. Saf. Res. 42 2 2011 117 130
14. F. Gross, and P.P. Jovanis Estimation of the safety effectiveness of lane and shoulder width: case-control approach J. Transport. Eng. 133 6 2007 362 369 (Pubitemid 46784704)
15. F. Gross, P.P. Jovanis, K.A. Eccles, and C. Ko-Yu Safety evaluation of lane and shoulder width combinations on rural, two-lane, undivided roads Final Report, FHWA-HRT 09-031 2009
16. D.W. Harwood, E. Bauer, I.B. Potts, D.J. Torbic, K.R. Richard, E.R. Kohlman Rabbani, E. Hauer, and L. Elefteriadou Safety Effectiveness of Intersection Left- and Right-turn Lanes. FHWA-RD-02-089 2002 Federal Highway Administration McLean, Va
17. E. Hauer, and B. Persaud A common bias in before and after comparison and its elimination Transportation Research Record 905. Transportation Research Board 1983 National Research Council Washington, DC 164 174
18. E. Hauer, D.W. Harwood, F.M. Council, and M. Griffith Estimating safety by the empirical Bayes method: a tutorial Transport. Res. Rec. 1784 2002 126 131
19. E. Hauer Observational before-after studies in traffic safety 1997 Pergamon New York
20. M.A. Hernan, and J.M. Robins Estimating causal effects from epidemiological data J. Epidemiol. Commun. Health 60 2006 578 586 (Pubitemid 44032819)
21. D.W. Hosmer, and S. Lemeshow Applied Logistic Regression 2nd ed. 2003 Wiley New York
22. H. Isebrands, S. Hallmark, Z. Hans, T. McDonald, H. Preston, and R. Storm Safety Impacts of Street Lighting at Isolated Rural Intersections: Part II, Year 1 Report 2004 Center for Transportation Research and Education. Iowa State University Ames, IA
23. J.D.Y. Kang, and J.L. Schafer Demystifying double robustness: a comparison of alternative strategies for estimating population means from incomplete data Stat. Sci. 26 2007 p.523 539
24. V. Karwa, A.B. Slavkovic, and E.T. Donnell Causal inference in transportation safety studies: comparison of the potential outcomes and causal Bayesian networks Ann. Appl. Stat. 5 2B 2011 1428 1455
25. R.J. Little, and R.B. Rubin Causal effects in clinical and epidemiological studies via potential outcomes: concepts and analytical approaches Annu. Rev. Publ. Health 21 2000 121 145 (Pubitemid 30480319)
26. R.J.A. Little, and H. An. Robust likelihood-based analysis of multivariate data with missing values Statistica Sinica 14 2004 949 968
27. D. Lord Modeling motor vehicle crashes using Poisson-gamma models: examining the effects of low sample mean values and small sample size on the estimation of the fixed dispersion parameter Accid. Anal. Prevent. 38 4 2006 751 766 (Pubitemid 44269028)
28. D. Lord, S.R. Geedipally, and S. Guikema Extension of the Application of Conway-Maxwell-Poisson Models: Analyzing Traffic Crash Data Exhibiting Under-Dispersion Risk Anal. 30 8 2010 1268 1276
29. D. Lord, and F. Mannering The statistical analysis of crash-frequency data: a review and assessment of methodological alternatives Transport. Res. A 2010 10.1016/j.tra.2010.02.001
30. S. Menard Applied Logistic Regression Analysis 2nd ed. 2002 Sage Thousand Oaks, CA
31. Minnesota Department of Transportation Traffic Safety Fundamentals Handbook 2001 Office of Traffic Safety St. Paul, MN
32. Minnesota Department of Transportation Roadway Lighting Design Manual 2003 Office of Traffic Safety St. Paul, MN
33. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration Traffic Safety Facts: Passenger Vehicle Occupant Fatalities by Day and Night - A Contrast 2007
34. Y.P. Park, and F.F. Saccomanno Reducing treatment selection bias for estimating treatment effects using propensity score method J. Transport. Eng. Am. Soc. Civil Eng. 133 2 2007 112 118 (Pubitemid 46139016)
35. J. Pearl Causal diagrams for experimental research Biometrika 82 1995 669 710
36. B.N. Persaud, and C. Lyon Empirical Bayes before-after safety studies: lessons learned from two decades of experience and future directions Accid. Anal. Prev. 39 3 2007 546 555 (Pubitemid 46659835)
37. B.N. Persaud, R.A. Retting, and C.A. Lyon Crash reduction following installation of centerline rumble strips on rural two-lane roads Accid. Anal. Prev. 36 2004 1073 1079
38. B.N. Persaud, C. Lyon, and T. Nguyen Empirical Bayes procedure for ranking sites for safety investigation by potential for safety improvement Transportation Research Record 1665, Paper No. 99-0534 2007
39. B.N. Persaud, R.A. Retting, P.E. Garder, and D. Lord Safety effect of roundabout conversions in the United States empirical Bayes observational before-after study Transportation Research Record 1665, Paper No. 99-0534 2007
40. B.N. Persaud, C. Lan, R. Lyon, and Bhim Comparison of empirical Bayes and full Bayes approaches for before-after road safety evaluations Accid. Anal. Prevent. 2009
41. B.P. Poi From the help desk: some bootstrapping techniques Stata J. 3 2004 312 328
42. H. Preston, and T. Schoenecker Safety Impacts of Street Lighting at Rural Intersections. Report No. 1999-17 1999 Minnesota Department of Transportation St. Paul, MN
43. P.R. Rosenbaum Observational Studies 2nd ed. 2002 Springer New York, NY
44. P.R. Rosenbaum, and D.B. Rubin The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects Biometrika 70 1983 41 55
45. P.R. Rosenbaum, and D.B. Rubin Reducing bias in observational studies using the subclassification on the propensity score J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 79 1985 516 524
46. D.B. Rubin The use of matched sampling and regression adjustment to remove bias in observational studies Biometrics 29 1973 185 203
47. D.B. Rubin Bayesian inference for causal effects: the role of randomization Ann. Stat. 6 1978 34 58
48. D.B. Rubin Neyman (1923) Causal inference in experiments and observational studies Stat. Sci. 5 1990 472 480
49. D.B. Rubin, and N. Thomas Characterizing the effect of matching using linear propensity score methods with normal distributions Biometrika 79 1992 797 809
50. D.B. Rubin, and N. Thomas Matching using estimated propensity scores: relating theory to practice Biometrics 52 1996 249 264 (Pubitemid 26125107)
51. L. Sasidharan Causal Modeling Approach to Determine the Effectiveness of Traffic Safety Countermeasures 2011 The Pennsylvania State Univeristy Univeristy Park USA (P.hD dissertation)
52. L. Sasidharan, and E.T. Donnell Application of propensity scores and potential outcomes to estimate effectiveness of traffic safety countermeasures: exploratory analysis using intersection lighting data Accid. Anal. Prev. 50 2013 539 553
53. J.L. Schafer, and J. Kang Average causal effects from nonrandomized studies: a practical guide and simulated example Psychol. Methods 13 4 2008 279 313
54. R.N. Schwab, N.E. Walton, J.M. Mounce, and M.J. Rosenbaum Synthesis of Safety Research Related to Traffic Control and Roadway Elements-Volume 2. Chapter 12: Highway Lighting. Report No. FHWA-TS-82-233 1982 Federal Highway Administration
55. A.P. Tarko, and M. Kanodia Effective and Fair Identification of Hazardous Locations, Transportation Research Record, Journal of the Transportation Research Board No. 1897 2004 64 70
56. A.R. Tsyganov, N.M. Warrenchuk, and R.B. Machemehl Driver performance and safety effects of edge lines on rural two-lane highways 88th Annual Meeting of Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., USA 2009
57. I. Yanovitzky, E. Zanutto, and R. Hornik Estimating causal effects of public health education campaigns using propensity score methodology Eval. Program Plann. 28 2005 209 220 (Pubitemid 40393579)