Predicting the cumulative risk of death during hospitalization by modeling weekend, weekday and diurnal mortality risks

BMC Health Services Research

Volumn 14, Issue 1, 2014, Pages

  Coiera, Enrico ^a   Wang, Ying ^a   Magrabi, Farah ^a   Concha, Oscar Perez ^a   Gallego, Blanca ^a   Runciman, William ^b,c  

^a UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES   (Australia)

^b UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH AUSTRALIA   (Australia)

^c Australian Patient Safety Foundation Inc   (Australia)

Author keywords

Dynamic risk prediction; Quality of hospital service; Risk exposure model; Weekend effect

Indexed keywords

ADOLESCENT; ADULT; AGED; AUSTRALIA; CHILD; CIRCADIAN RHYTHM; EPIDEMIOLOGY; FEMALE; HUMAN; INFANT; MALE; MIDDLE AGED; MORTALITY; NEWBORN; PRESCHOOL CHILD; PROCEDURES; RISK; RISK ASSESSMENT; THEORETICAL MODEL; TIME; VERY ELDERLY; YOUNG ADULT;

ADOLESCENT; ADULT; AGED; AGED, 80 AND OVER; CHILD; CHILD, PRESCHOOL; CIRCADIAN RHYTHM; FEMALE; HOSPITAL MORTALITY; HUMANS; INFANT; INFANT, NEWBORN; MALE; MIDDLE AGED; MODELS, THEORETICAL; NEW SOUTH WALES; RISK; RISK ASSESSMENT; TIME FACTORS; YOUNG ADULT;

EID: 84902554009     PISSN: None     EISSN: 14726963     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1186/1472-6963-14-226     Document Type: Article

References (28)

1. Prognosis and prognostic research: validating a prognostic model. Altman DG, Vergouwe Y, Royston P, Moons KG, Bmj. 2009 338 605 10.1136/bmj.b605 19477892
2. Potentially Avoidable 30-Day Hospital Readmissions in Medical Patients Derivation and Validation of a Prediction Model. Donze J, Aujesky D, Williams D, Schnipper JL, Jama Intern Med. 2013 173 8 632 638 10.1001/jamainternmed.2013. 3023 23529115
3. Validation, updating and impact of clinical prediction rules: A review. Toll DB, Janssen KJM, Vergouwe Y, Moons KGM, J Clin Epidemiol. 2008 61 11 1085 1094 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2008.04.008 19208371
4. Temporal Trends in Rates of Patient Harm Resulting from Medical Care. Landrigan CP, Parry GJ, Bones CB, Hackbarth AD, Goldmann DA, Sharek PJ, New Engl J Med. 2010 363 22 2124 2134 10.1056/NEJMsa1004404 21105794
5. Weekends: A dangerous time for having a stroke? Saposnik G, Baibergenova A, Bayer NH, Hachinski V, Neurology. 2007 68 12 228-A
6. Weekend versus weekday admission and mortality from myocardial infarction. Kostis WJ, Demissie K, Marcella SW, Shao YH, Wilson AC, Moreyra AE, New Engl J Med. 2007 356 11 1099 1109 10.1056/NEJMoa063355 17360988 (Pubitemid 46437101)
7. Adverse event rates as measures of hospital performance. Hauck K, Zhao XY, Jackson T, Health Policy. 2012 104 2 146 154 10.1016/j.healthpol.2011.06.010 21782269
8. Effects of weekend admission and hospital teaching status on in-hospital mortality. Cram P, Hillis SL, Barnett M, Rosenthal GE, Am J Med. 2004 117 3 151 157 10.1016/j.amjmed.2004.02.035 15276592
9. Developing a summary hospital mortality index: retrospective analysis in English hospitals over five years. Campbell MJ, Jacques RM, Fotheringham J, Maheswaran R, Nicholl J, Bmj. 2012 344 1001 10.1136/bmj.e1001 22381521
10. Weekend hospitalization and additional risk of death: An analysis of inpatient data. Freemantle N, Richardson M, Wood J, Ray D, Khosla S, Shahian D, Roche WR, Stephens I, Keogh B, Pagano D, J Roy Soc Med. 2012 105 2 74 84 10.1258/jrsm.2012.120009 22307037
11. Do hospitals provide lower quality care on weekends? Becker DJ, Health Serv Res. 2007 42 4 1589 1612 10.1111/j.1475-6773.2006.00663.x 17610439 (Pubitemid 47024842)
12. Weekend hospitalisation and mortality: a critical review. Becker D, Expert rev pharmacoecon outcomes res. 2008 8 1 23 26 10.1586/14737167.8.1.23 20528352 (Pubitemid 351377271)
13. The impact of weekends on outcome for emergency patients. Schmulewitz L, Proudfoot A, Bell D, Clin Med. 2005 5 6 621 625 10.7861/clinmedicine.5-6-621 16411359 (Pubitemid 41826492)
14. Weekend admission to hospital has a higher risk of death in the elective setting than in the emergency setting: a retrospective database study of national health service hospitals in England. Mohammed MA, Sidhu KS, Rudge G, Stevens AJ, Bmc Health Serv Res. 2012 12 87 10.1186/1472-6963-12-87 22471933
15. Day of the week of intensive care admission and patient outcomes-A multisite regional evaluation. Barnett MJ, Kaboli PJ, Sirio CA, Rosenthal GE, Med Care. 2002 40 6 530 539 10.1097/00005650-200206000-00010 12021679
16. Increased mortality associated with after-hours and weekend admission to the intensive care unit: a retrospective analysis. Bhonagiri D, Pilcher DV, Bailey MJ, Med J Australia. 2011 194 6 287 292 21426282
17. Performance of in-hospital mortality prediction models for acute hospitalization: hospital standardized mortality ratio in Japan. Miyata H, Hashimoto H, Horiguchi H, Matsuda S, Motomura N, Takamoto S, Bmc Health Serv Res. 2008 8 229 10.1186/1472-6963-8-229 18990251
18. How Dangerous is a Day in Hospital? A Model of Adverse Events and Length of Stay for Medical Inpatients. Hauck K, Zhao XY, Med Care. 2011 49 12 1068 1075 10.1097/MLR.0b013e31822efb09 21945976
19. Introducing ICD-10-AM in Australian hospitals. Roberts RF, Innes KC, Walker SM, The Medical Journal of Australia 1998 169 32 S35 9830408
20. A New Method of Classifying Prognostic Co-Morbidity in Longitudinal-Studies-Development and Validation. Charlson ME, Pompei P, Ales KL, Mackenzie CR, J Chron Dis. 1987 40 5 373 383 10.1016/0021-9681(87)90171-8 3558716 (Pubitemid 17055592)
21. Including post-discharge mortality in calculation of hospital standardised mortality ratios: retrospective analysis of hospital episode statistics. Pouw ME, Peelen LM, Moons KG, Kalkman CJ, Lingsma HF, Bmj. 2013 347 5913 2013-10-21 12:00:26 10.1136/bmj.f5913 24144869
22. The Centre for Health Record Linkage: a new resource for health services research and evaluation. Lawrence G, Dinh I, Taylor L, Health Inf Manag J. 2008 37 2 60 62
23. Borthwick A, Buechi M, Goldberg A, Key Concepts in the ChoiceMaker 2 Record Matching System Washington, DC: Proc. KDD-2003 Workshop on Data Cleaning, Record Linkage, and Object Consolidation 2003 28 30
24. Hosmer DWL, S. Applied Logistic Regression New York: Wiley 2 2000
25. Do variations in hospital mortality patterns after weekend admission reflect reduced quality of care or different patient cohorts? A population-based study. Concha OP, Gallego B, Hillman K, Delaney GP, Coiera E, BMJ Quality & Safety. 2014 2013 23 215 222
26. A Prescription for Period Analysis of Unevenly Sampled Time-Series. Horne JH, Baliunas SL, Astrophys J. 1986 302 2 757 763
27. Multimodel inference-understanding AIC and BIC in model selection. Burnham KP, Anderson DR, Sociol Method Res. 2004 33 2 261 304 10.1177/0049124104268644 (Pubitemid 39519124)
28. Covariance analysis of censored survival data using log-linear analysis techniques. Laird N, Olivier D, J Am Stat Assoc 1981 76 374 231 240 10.1080/01621459.1981.10477634