메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 38, Issue 4, 2014, Pages 599-637

One and done? Optimal decisions from very few samples

Author keywords

Bayesian; Bounded rationality; Computational; Inference; Sampling

Indexed keywords

BAYES THEOREM; DECISION MAKING; HUMAN; LEARNING; THEORETICAL MODEL;

EID: 84901691896     PISSN: 03640213     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/cogs.12101     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (310)

References (73)
  • 1
    • 0000705894 scopus 로고
    • The adaptive nature of human categorization
    • Anderson, J. (1991). The adaptive nature of human categorization. Psychological Review, 98(3), 409-429.
    • (1991) Psychological Review , vol.98 , Issue.3 , pp. 409-429
    • Anderson, J.1
  • 2
    • 34347324113 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Humans trade off viewing time and movement duration to improve visuomotor accuracy in a fast reaching task
    • Battaglia, P., & Schrater, P. (2007). Humans trade off viewing time and movement duration to improve visuomotor accuracy in a fast reaching task. Journal of Neuroscience, 27, 6984-6994.
    • (2007) Journal of Neuroscience , vol.27 , pp. 6984-6994
    • Battaglia, P.1    Schrater, P.2
  • 4
    • 33847103800 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Optimal decision-making theories: Linking neurobiology with behavior
    • Bogacz, R. (2007). Optimal decision-making theories: Linking neurobiology with behavior. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 11, 118-125.
    • (2007) Trends in Cognitive Sciences , vol.11 , pp. 118-125
    • Bogacz, R.1
  • 5
    • 33750347385 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The physics of optimal decision making: A formal analysis of models of performance in two-alternative forced-choice tasks
    • Bogacz, R., Brown, E., Moehlis, J., Holmes, P., & Cohen, J. (2006). The physics of optimal decision making: A formal analysis of models of performance in two-alternative forced-choice tasks. Psychological Review, 113, 700-765.
    • (2006) Psychological Review , vol.113 , pp. 700-765
    • Bogacz, R.1    Brown, E.2    Moehlis, J.3    Holmes, P.4    Cohen, J.5
  • 7
    • 52749091564 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The simplest complete model of choice response time: Linear ballistic accumulation
    • Brown, S., & Heathcote, A. (2008). The simplest complete model of choice response time: Linear ballistic accumulation. Cognitive Psychology, 57, 153-178.
    • (2008) Cognitive Psychology , vol.57 , pp. 153-178
    • Brown, S.1    Heathcote, A.2
  • 8
    • 55349147968 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Detecting and predicting changes
    • Brown, S., & Steyvers, M. (2008). Detecting and predicting changes. Cognitive Psychology, 58, 49-67.
    • (2008) Cognitive Psychology , vol.58 , pp. 49-67
    • Brown, S.1    Steyvers, M.2
  • 9
    • 70450237193 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Observing evidence accumulation during multi-alternative decisions
    • Brown, S., Steyvers, M., & Wagenmakers, E.-J. (2009). Observing evidence accumulation during multi-alternative decisions. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 53(6), 453-462.
    • (2009) Journal of Mathematical Psychology , vol.53 , Issue.6 , pp. 453-462
    • Brown, S.1    Steyvers, M.2    Wagenmakers, E.-J.3
  • 10
    • 33746349812 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic models of language processing and acquisition
    • Chater, N., & Manning, C. (2006). Probabilistic models of language processing and acquisition. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 10(7), 335-344.
    • (2006) Trends in Cognitive Sciences , vol.10 , Issue.7 , pp. 335-344
    • Chater, N.1    Manning, C.2
  • 11
    • 67349277928 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The rat as particle filter
    • In J. C. Platt, D. Koller, Y. Singer, & S. Roweis (Eds.), Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
    • Daw, N., & Courville, A. (2008). The rat as particle filter. In J. C. Platt, D. Koller, Y. Singer, & S. Roweis (Eds.), Advances in neural information processing systems. Vol. 20 (pp. 369*-376). Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
    • (2008) Advances in neural information processing systems , vol.20 , pp. 369-376
    • Daw, N.1    Courville, A.2
  • 12
    • 84871737948 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Rational variability in children's causal inferences: The sampling hypothesis
    • Denison, S., Bonawitz, E., Gopnik, A., & Griffiths, T. (2013). Rational variability in children's causal inferences: The sampling hypothesis. Cognition, 126(3), 285-399.
    • (2013) Cognition , vol.126 , Issue.3 , pp. 285-399
    • Denison, S.1    Bonawitz, E.2    Gopnik, A.3    Griffiths, T.4
  • 18
    • 83455200259 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multistability and perceptual inference
    • Gershman, S., Vul, E., & Tenenbaum, J. (2012). Multistability and perceptual inference. Neural Computation, 24(1), 1-24.
    • (2012) Neural Computation , vol.24 , Issue.1 , pp. 1-24
    • Gershman, S.1    Vul, E.2    Tenenbaum, J.3
  • 19
    • 70349771444 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Rationality for mortals: How people cope with uncertainty
    • Oxford University Press, USA.
    • Gigerenzer, G. (2008). Rationality for mortals: How people cope with uncertainty. Oxford University Press, USA.
    • (2008)
    • Gigerenzer, G.1
  • 20
    • 0034704894 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Representation of a perceptual decision in developing oculomotor commands
    • Gold, J., & Shadlen, M. (2000). Representation of a perceptual decision in developing oculomotor commands. Nature, 404, 390-394.
    • (2000) Nature , vol.404 , pp. 390-394
    • Gold, J.1    Shadlen, M.2
  • 21
    • 0037057757 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Banburismus and the brain: Decoding the relationship between sensory stimuli, decisions, and reward
    • Gold, J., & Shadlen, M. (2002). Banburismus and the brain: Decoding the relationship between sensory stimuli, decisions, and reward. Neuron, 36, 299-308.
    • (2002) Neuron , vol.36 , pp. 299-308
    • Gold, J.1    Shadlen, M.2
  • 23
    • 28144442965 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Structure and strength in causal induction
    • Griffiths, T., & Tenenbaum, J. (2005). Structure and strength in causal induction. Cognitive Psychology, 51, 354-384.
    • (2005) Cognitive Psychology , vol.51 , pp. 354-384
    • Griffiths, T.1    Tenenbaum, J.2
  • 24
    • 33747688922 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Optimal predictions in everyday cognition
    • Griffiths, T., & Tenenbaum, J. (2006). Optimal predictions in everyday cognition. Psychological Science, 17, 767-773.
    • (2006) Psychological Science , vol.17 , pp. 767-773
    • Griffiths, T.1    Tenenbaum, J.2
  • 25
    • 27844539379 scopus 로고
    • Relative and absolute strength of response as a function of frequency of reinforcement
    • Herrnstein, R. (1961). Relative and absolute strength of response as a function of frequency of reinforcement. Journal of the Experimental Analysis of Behavior, 4(3), 267.
    • (1961) Journal of the Experimental Analysis of Behavior , vol.4 , Issue.3 , pp. 267
    • Herrnstein, R.1
  • 26
    • 70449671239 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The description-experience gap in risky choice
    • Hertwig, R., & Erev, I. (2009). The description-experience gap in risky choice. Trends in Cognitive Science, 13(12), 517-523.
    • (2009) Trends in Cognitive Science , vol.13 , Issue.12 , pp. 517-523
    • Hertwig, R.1    Erev, I.2
  • 27
    • 77649188951 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Decisions from experience: Why small samples?
    • Hertwig, R., & Pleskac, T. (2010). Decisions from experience: Why small samples? Cognition, 115, 225-237.
    • (2010) Cognition, , vol.115 , pp. 225-237
    • Hertwig, R.1    Pleskac, T.2
  • 29
    • 77954161663 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Smaller is better (when sampling from the crowd within): Low memory-span individuals benefit more from multiple opportunities for estimation
    • Hourihan, K., & Benjamin, A. (2010). Smaller is better (when sampling from the crowd within): Low memory-span individuals benefit more from multiple opportunities for estimation. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory and Cognition, 36, 1068-1074.
    • (2010) Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory and Cognition , vol.36 , pp. 1068-1074
    • Hourihan, K.1    Benjamin, A.2
  • 30
    • 0000672192 scopus 로고
    • Stimulus information as a determinant of reaction time
    • Hyman, R. (1953). Stimulus information as a determinant of reaction time. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 45, 188-196.
    • (1953) Journal of Experimental Psychology , vol.45 , pp. 188-196
    • Hyman, R.1
  • 31
    • 80055001436 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayesian fundamentalism or enlightenment? on the explanatory status and theoretical contributions of Bayesian models of cognition
    • Jones, M., & Love, B. (2011). Bayesian fundamentalism or enlightenment? on the explanatory status and theoretical contributions of Bayesian models of cognition. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 34(4), 169-188.
    • (2011) Behavioral and Brain Sciences , vol.34 , Issue.4 , pp. 169-188
    • Jones, M.1    Love, B.2
  • 33
    • 35548929021 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Decision theory: What should the nervous system do?
    • Kording, K. (2007). Decision theory: What should the nervous system do? Science, 318(5850), 606.
    • (2007) Science, , vol.318 , Issue.5850 , pp. 606
    • Kording, K.1
  • 34
    • 85015375333 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayesian intractability is not an ailment that approximation can cure
    • Kwisthout, J., Wareham, T., & van Rooij, I. (2011). Bayesian intractability is not an ailment that approximation can cure. Cognitive Science, 1, 1-6.
    • (2011) Cognitive Science , vol.1 , pp. 1-6
    • Kwisthout, J.1    Wareham, T.2    van Rooij, I.3
  • 35
    • 84858769769 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modeling the effects of memory on human online sentence processing with particle filters.
    • In D. Koller, D. Schuurmans, Y. Bengio, & L. Bottou (Eds.), Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
    • Levy, R., Reali, F., & Griffiths, T. (2009). Modeling the effects of memory on human online sentence processing with particle filters. In D. Koller, D. Schuurmans, Y. Bengio, & L. Bottou (Eds.), Advances in neural information processing systems, Vol. 21 (pp. 937-944). Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
    • (2009) Advances in neural information processing systems , vol.21 , pp. 937-944
    • Levy, R.1    Reali, F.2    Griffiths, T.3
  • 36
    • 77953144077 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The wisdom of individuals: Exploring peoples knowledge about everyday events using iterated learning
    • Lewandowsky, S., Griffiths, T., & Kalish, M. (2009). The wisdom of individuals: Exploring peoples knowledge about everyday events using iterated learning. Cognitive Science, 33, 969-998.
    • (2009) Cognitive Science , vol.33 , pp. 969-998
    • Lewandowsky, S.1    Griffiths, T.2    Kalish, M.3
  • 37
    • 84877775445 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Burn-in, bias, and the rationality of anchoring
    • P. Bartlett, F. C. N. Pereira, C. J. C. Burges, L. Bottou, & K. Q. Weinberger (Eds.), Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
    • Lieder, F., Griffiths, T. L., & Goodman, N. D. (2012). Burn-in, bias, and the rationality of anchoring. In P. Bartlett, F. C. N. Pereira, C. J. C. Burges, L. Bottou, & K. Q. Weinberger (Eds.), Advances in neural information processing systems. Vol. 25 (pp. 2699-2707). Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
    • (2012) Advances in neural information processing systems , vol.25 , pp. 2699-2707
    • Lieder, F.1    Griffiths, T.L.2    Goodman, N.D.3
  • 39
    • 0038400693 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Statistical decision theory and biological vision
    • In D. Heyer & R. Mausfield (Eds.), New York, NY: Wiley.
    • Maloney, L. (2002). Statistical decision theory and biological vision. In D. Heyer & R. Mausfield (Eds.), Perception and the physical world (pp. 145-189). New York, NY: Wiley.
    • (2002) Perception and the physical world , pp. 145-189
    • Maloney, L.1
  • 40
    • 34247166149 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Questions without words: A comparison between decision making under risk and movement planning under risk
    • In W. Gray (Ed.), New York, NY: Oxford University Press.
    • Maloney, L., Trommershauser, J., & Landy, M. (2007). Questions without words: A comparison between decision making under risk and movement planning under risk. In W. Gray (Ed.), Integrated models of cognitive systems (pp. 297-313). New York, NY: Oxford University Press.
    • (2007) Integrated models of cognitive systems , pp. 297-313
    • Maloney, L.1    Trommershauser, J.2    Landy, M.3
  • 41
    • 0003834557 scopus 로고
    • Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
    • Marr, D. (1982). Vision. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
    • (1982) Vision.
    • Marr, D.1
  • 42
    • 38149147110 scopus 로고
    • The accuracy of intuitive judgment strategies: Covariation assessment and Bayesian inference
    • Available at:
    • McKenzie, C. (1994). The accuracy of intuitive judgment strategies: Covariation assessment and Bayesian inference. Cognitive Psychology, 26, 209-239. Available at: http://psy.ucsd.edu/mckenzie/McKenzie1994CogPsych.pdf
    • (1994) Cognitive Psychology , vol.26 , pp. 209-239
    • McKenzie, C.1
  • 43
    • 56449126758 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Optimal predictions in everyday cognition: The wisdom of individuals or crowds?
    • Mozer, M., Pashler, H., & Homaei, H. (2008). Optimal predictions in everyday cognition: The wisdom of individuals or crowds? Cognitive Science, 32, 1133-1147.
    • (2008) Cognitive Science, , vol.32 , pp. 1133-1147
    • Mozer, M.1    Pashler, H.2    Homaei, H.3
  • 44
    • 33847655699 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the interaction between exemplar-based concepts and a response scaling process
    • Navarro, D. (2007). On the interaction between exemplar-based concepts and a response scaling process. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 51, 85-98.
    • (2007) Journal of Mathematical Psychology , vol.51 , pp. 85-98
    • Navarro, D.1
  • 45
    • 0028044369 scopus 로고
    • Rule-plus-exception model of classification learning
    • Nosofsky, R., Palmeri, T., & McKinley, S. (1994). Rule-plus-exception model of classification learning. Psychological Review, 101, 53-79.
    • (1994) Psychological Review , vol.101 , pp. 53-79
    • Nosofsky, R.1    Palmeri, T.2    McKinley, S.3
  • 46
    • 1942507523 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A comparison of sequential-sampling models for two choice reaction time
    • Ratcliff, & Smith. (2004). A comparison of sequential-sampling models for two choice reaction time. Psychological Review, 111, 333-367.
    • (2004) Psychological Review , vol.111 , pp. 333-367
    • Ratcliff1    Smith2
  • 47
    • 58149404021 scopus 로고
    • A theory of memory retrieval
    • Ratcliff, R. (1978). A theory of memory retrieval. Psychological Review, 85, 59-108.
    • (1978) Psychological Review , vol.85 , pp. 59-108
    • Ratcliff, R.1
  • 49
    • 85162044946 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Markov chain Monte Carlo with people
    • In J. C. Platt, D. Koller, Y. Singer, & S. Roweis (Eds.), Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
    • Sanborn, A. N., & Griffiths, T. L. (2008). Markov chain Monte Carlo with people. In J. C. Platt, D. Koller, Y. Singer, & S. Roweis (Eds.), Advances in neural information processing systems. Vol. 20 (pp. 1265-1272). Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
    • (2008) Advances in neural information processing systems , vol.20 , pp. 1265-1272
    • Sanborn, A.N.1    Griffiths, T.L.2
  • 54
    • 58149433367 scopus 로고
    • Rational choice and the structure of the environment
    • Simon, H. (1956). Rational choice and the structure of the environment. Psychological Review, 63, 129-138.
    • (1956) Psychological Review , vol.63 , pp. 129-138
    • Simon, H.1
  • 55
    • 2442704284 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Children's causal inferences from indirect evidence: Backwards blocking and Bayesian reasoning in preschoolers
    • Sobel, D., Tenenbaum, J., & Gopnik, A. (2004). Children's causal inferences from indirect evidence: Backwards blocking and Bayesian reasoning in preschoolers. Cognitive Science, 28, 303-333.
    • (2004) Cognitive Science , vol.28 , pp. 303-333
    • Sobel, D.1    Tenenbaum, J.2    Gopnik, A.3
  • 60
    • 55149097618 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • New York: Random House.
    • Taleb, N. (2008). The black swan. New York: Random House.
    • (2008) The black swan
    • Taleb, N.1
  • 62
    • 0016264378 scopus 로고
    • Judgments under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases
    • Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgments under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science, 185, 1124-1131.
    • (1974) Science , vol.185 , pp. 1124-1131
    • Tversky, A.1    Kahneman, D.2
  • 63
    • 85047685362 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The time course of perceptual choice: The leaky, competing accumulator model
    • Usher, M., & McClelland, J. (2001). The time course of perceptual choice: The leaky, competing accumulator model. Psychological Review, 108, 550-592.
    • (2001) Psychological Review , vol.108 , pp. 550-592
    • Usher, M.1    McClelland, J.2
  • 64
    • 0036948359 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Hick's law in a stochastic race model with speed-accuracy tradeoff
    • Usher, M., Olami, & McClelland, J. (2002). Hick's law in a stochastic race model with speed-accuracy tradeoff. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 46, 704-715.
    • (2002) Journal of Mathematical Psychology , vol.46 , pp. 704-715
    • Usher, M.1    Olami2    McClelland, J.3
  • 67
    • 70449504498 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Attention as inference: Selection is probabilistic; responses are all or none samples
    • Vul, E., Hanus, D., & Kanwisher, N. (2009). Attention as inference: Selection is probabilistic; responses are all or none samples. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 138(4), 546-560.
    • (2009) Journal of Experimental Psychology: General , vol.138 , Issue.4 , pp. 546-560
    • Vul, E.1    Hanus, D.2    Kanwisher, N.3
  • 68
    • 47649133311 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Measuring the crowd within: Probabilistic representations within individuals
    • Vul, E., & Pashler, H. (2008). Measuring the crowd within: Probabilistic representations within individuals. Psychological Science, 19(7), 645-647.
    • (2008) Psychological Science , vol.19 , Issue.7 , pp. 645-647
    • Vul, E.1    Pashler, H.2
  • 69
    • 78149431828 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Independent sampling of features enables conscious perception of bound objects
    • Vul, E., & Rich, A. (2010). Independent sampling of features enables conscious perception of bound objects. Psychological Science, 21(8), 1168-1175.
    • (2010) Psychological Science , vol.21 , Issue.8 , pp. 1168-1175
    • Vul, E.1    Rich, A.2
  • 70
    • 0034014181 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An economist's perspective on probability matching
    • Vulkan, N. (2000). An economist's perspective on probability matching. Journal of Economic Surveys, 14(1), 101-118.
    • (2000) Journal of Economic Surveys , vol.14 , Issue.1 , pp. 101-118
    • Vulkan, N.1
  • 71
    • 0003503387 scopus 로고
    • Wald. New York: Wiley.
    • Wald. (1947). Sequential analysis. New York: Wiley.
    • (1947) Sequential analysis
  • 72
    • 34247380281 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Sensitivity to sampling in Bayesian word learning
    • Xu, F., & Tenenbaum, J. (2007). Sensitivity to sampling in Bayesian word learning. Developmental Science, 10(3), 288-297.
    • (2007) Developmental Science , vol.10 , Issue.3 , pp. 288-297
    • Xu, F.1    Tenenbaum, J.2
  • 73
    • 0002775831 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayesian decision theory and psychophysics
    • In D. Knill & W. RIchards (Eds.), Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
    • Yuille, A., & Bülthoff, H. (1996). Bayesian decision theory and psychophysics. In D. Knill & W. RIchards (Eds.), Perception as Bayesian inference (pp. 123-161). Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
    • (1996) Perception as Bayesian inference , pp. 123-161
    • Yuille, A.1    Bülthoff, H.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.