Re-evaluating evidence for past population trends and predicted dynamics of yellowstone grizzly bears

Conservation Letters

Volumn 7, Issue 3, 2014, Pages 312-322

  Doak, Daniel F ^a   Cutler, Kerry ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

Author keywords

Chao estimator; Count data; Grizzly bear; PVA; Senescence; Ursus; Yellowstone

Indexed keywords

EID: 84901687155     PISSN: None     EISSN: 1755263X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/conl.12048     Document Type: Article

References (40)

1. Bellemain E., Swenson J.E., Tallmon D., Brunberg S. & Taberlet P. (2005) Estimating population size of elusive animals with DNA from hunter-collected feces: four methods for brown bears. Conserv. Biol., 19, 150-161.
2. Boyce M.S., Blanchard B.M., Knight R.R. & Servheen, C. (2001) Population viability for grizzly bears: a critical review. International Association for Bear Research and Management Monograph Series Number 4, International Association for Bear Research and Management, Olney, MD.
3. Boyd I.L. (2010) Assessing the effectiveness of conservation measures: resolving the ''wicked" problem of the Steller sea lion. Biol. Conserv., 143, 1664-1674.
4. Buonaccorsi J.P. & Staudenmayer J. (2009) Statistical methods to correct for observation error in a density-independent population model. Ecol. Monogr., 79, 299-324.
5. Chao A. (1989) Estimating population size for sparse data in capture-recapture experiments. Biometrics, 45, 427-438.
6. Chaudhary A., Subedi T.R., Giri J.B., et al. (2012) Population trends of critically endangered Gyps vultures in the lowlands of Nepal. Bird Conserv. Int., 22, 270-278.
7. Cherry S., White G.C., Keating K.A., Haroldson M.A. & Schwartz C.C. (2007) Evaluating estimators of the number of females with cubs-of-the-year in the Yellowstone grizzly bear population. J. Agric. Biol. Environ. Stat., 12, 195-215.
8. Dennis B. & Taper M.L. (1994) Density dependence in time series observations of natural populations: estimation and testing. Ecol. Monogr., 64, 205-224.
9. Dennis B., Munholland P.L. & Michael J. Scott (1991) Estimation of growth and extinction parameters for endangered species. Ecol. Monogr., 61, 115-143.
10. Eberhardt L.L. & Breiwick J.M. (2010) Trend of the Yellowstone grizzly bear population. Int. J. Ecol. doi: 10.1155/2010/924197.
11. Eberhardt L.L. & Knight R. R. (1996) How many grizzlies in Yellowstone? J. Wildlife Manage., 60, 416-421.
12. Gude P.H., Hansen A.J., Rasker R. & Maxwell B. (2006) Rate and drivers of rural residential development in the Greater Yellowstone. Landscape Urban Plan., 77, 131-151.
13. Haroldson M.A., Schwatrz C.C. & White G.C. (2006) Survival of independent grizzly bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, 1983-2001. Pages 33-42 in C.C. Schwartz, M.A. Haroldson, G.C. White et al., editors. Temporal, spatial and environmental influences on the demographics of grizzly bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Wildlife Monographs 161, The Wildlife Society, Bethesda, MD.
14. Harris R.B., White G.C., Schwartz C.C. & Haroldson M.A. (2007) Population growth of Yellowstone grizzly bears: uncertainty and future monitoring. Ursus, 18, 167-177.
15. Hernandez-Manrique O.L., Sanchez-Fernandez D., Numa C., Galante E., Verdu J.R. & Lobo J.M. (2013) Extinction trends of threatened invertebrates in peninsular Spain. J. Insect Conserv., 17, 235-244.
16. Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team (IGBST). (2012) Updating and evaluating approaches to estimate population size and sustainable mortality limits for grizzly bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team, U.S. Geological Survey, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, Bozeman, MT.
17. Johnson C.J., Boyce M.S., Schwartz C.C. & Haroldson M.A. (2004) Modeling survival: application of the Andersen-Gill model to Yellowstone grizzly bears. J. Wildlife Manage., 68, 966-978.
18. Keating K.A., Schwartz C.C., Haroldson M.A. & Moody D. (2002) Estimating numbers of females with cubs-of-the-year in the Yellowstone grizzly bear population. Ursus, 13, 161-174.
19. Kery M., Royle A., Schmid H., et al. (2010) Site-occupancy distribution modeling to correct population-trend estimates derived from opportunistic observations. Conserv. Biol., 24, 1388-1397.
20. Koel T.M., Bigelow P.E., Doepke P.D., Ertel B.D. & Mahony D.L. (2005) Nonnative lake trout result in Yellowstone cutthroat trout decline and impacts to bears and anglers. Fisheries, 30, 10-19.
21. Lindley S.T. (2003) Estimation of population growth and extinction parameters from noisy data. Ecol. Appl., 13, 806-813.
22. Link W.A. (2003) Nonidentifiability of population size from capture-recapture data with heterogeneous detection probabilities. Biometrics, 59, 1123-1130.
23. Mace G.M., Hilton-Taylor N.J., Collar K.J., et al. (2010) Quantification of extinction risk: IUCN's system for classifying threatened species. Conserv. Biol., 22, 1424-1442.
24. Mao C.X. (2007) Estimating population sizes for capture-recapture sampling with binomial mixtures. Comput. Stat. Data An., 51, 5211-5219.
25. Mao, C.X. & You, N. (2009) On comparison of mixture models for closed population capture-recapture studies. Biometrics, 65, 547-553.
26. Martin T.G., Nally S., Burbidge A.A. et al. (2012) Acting fast helps avoid extinction. Conserv. Lett., 5, 274-280.
27. Mattson D.J. (1997) Use of ungulates by Yellowstone grizzly bears Ursus arctos. Biol. Conserv., 81, 161-177.
28. Mattson, D.J., Gillin, C.M., Benson, S.A. & Knight, R.R. (1991) Bear feeding activity at alpine insect aggregation sites in the Yellowstone Ecosystem. Can. J. Zool., 69, 2430-2435.
29. Morris, W.F. & Doak, D.F. (2002) Quantitative conservation biology: theory and practice of population variability analysis. Sinauer Associates, Sunderland, MA.
30. Olea, P.P & Mateo-Tomas, P. (2011) Spatially explicit estimation of occupancy, dsetection probability and survey effort needed to inform conservation planning. Divers. Distrib., 17, 714-724.
31. Pease, C.M. & Mattson, D.J. (1999) Demography of the Yellowstone grizzly bears. Ecology, 80, 957-975.
32. Primm, S. & Murray, K. (2005) Grizzly bear recovery: living with success? Pages 99-138 in T.W. Clark, M.B. Rutherford, and D. Casey, editors. Coexisting with large carnivores: lessons from Greater Yellowstone. Island Press, Washington D.C.
33. Schwartz, C.C., Keating, K. A. et al. (2003) Reproductive maturation and senescence in the female brown bear. Ursus, 14, 109-119.
34. Schwartz, C.C., Haroldson, M.A., White, G.C., et al. (2006a) Temporal, spatial, and environmental influences on the demographics of grizzly bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Wildlife Monogr., 161, 1-68.
35. Schwartz, C.C., Haroldson, M.A. & Cherry, S. (2006b) Reproductive performance of grizzly bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, 1983-2002. Pages 17-24 in C.C. Schwartz, M.A. Haroldson, G.C. White et al., editors. Temporal, spatial and environmental influences on the demographics of grizzly bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Wildlife Monographs 161, The Wildlife Society, Bethesda, MD.
36. Schwartz, C.C., Haroldson, M.A. & White, G.C. (2006c) Survival of cub and yearling grizzly bears in the Greater Yellowstone ecosystem, 1983-2001. Pages 25-31 in C.C. Schwartz, M.A. Haroldson, G.C. White et al., editors. Temporal, spatial and environmental influences on the demographics of grizzly bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Wildlife Monographs 161, The Wildlife Society, Bethesda, MD.
37. Senyatso, K.J., Collar, N.J. & Dolman, P.M. (2013) Assessing range-wide conservation status change in an unmonitored widespread African bird species. Divers. Distrib., 19, 106-119.
38. Terborgh, J. & Estes, J.A. (eds.). (2010) Trophic cascades: predators, prey, and the changing dynamics of nature. Island Press, Washington, D.C.
39. Wilkinson, T. (1998) Grizzly fate. National Parks, 72, 11-12.
40. Wilson, R.M., Collins, M.F. (1992) Capture-recapture estimation with samples of size one using frequency data. Bio metrika, 79, 543-553.