Challenges associated with projecting urbanization-induced heat-related mortality

Science of the Total Environment

Volumn 490, Issue , 2014, Pages 538-544

  Hondula, David M ^a,b   Georgescu, Matei ^b   Balling, Robert C ^b  

^a ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Climate change; Extreme heat; Health; Heat related mortality; Urbanization

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; REGRESSION ANALYSIS;

ADAPTATION SCENARIOS; EXTREME TEMPERATURES; HEAT-RELATED MORTALITIES; MINIMUM TEMPERATURES; POISSON REGRESSION MODELS; REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL SIMULATION; URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECTS; URBANIZATION;

HEALTH;

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; COMPUTER SIMULATION; DIURNAL VARIATION; EXTREME EVENT; HEAT ISLAND; METROPOLITAN AREA; MORTALITY; PUBLIC HEALTH; TEMPERATURE EFFECT; URBANIZATION;

AIR TEMPERATURE; ARTICLE; CAUSE OF DEATH; CIRCADIAN RHYTHM; CLIMATE CHANGE; HEAT ACCLIMATIZATION; HEAT STRESS; HUMAN; MORTALITY; PRIORITY JOURNAL; SEASONAL VARIATION; SUMMER; THERMAL EXPOSURE; UNITED STATES; URBANIZATION; ENVIRONMENTAL EXPOSURE; HEAT; RISK ASSESSMENT; STATISTICS AND NUMERICAL DATA; THEORETICAL MODEL; TRENDS;

ARIZONA; MARICOPA COUNTY; UNITED STATES;

ARIZONA; CLIMATE CHANGE; ENVIRONMENTAL EXPOSURE; HOT TEMPERATURE; HUMANS; MODELS, THEORETICAL; MORTALITY; RISK ASSESSMENT; URBANIZATION;

EID: 84901406498     PISSN: 00489697     EISSN: 18791026     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.04.130     Document Type: Article

References (49)

1. Anderson B.G., Bell M.L. Weather-related mortality: how heat, cold, and heat waves affect mortality in the United States. Epidemiology 2009, 20(2):205.
2. Anderson G.B., Bell M.L. Heat waves in the United States: mortality risk during heat waves and effect modification by heat wave characteristics in 43 US communities. Environ Health Perspect 2011, 119:210-218.
3. Argüeso D., Evans J.P., Fita L., Bormann K.J. Temperature response to future urbanization and climate change. Clim Dyn 2014, 42(7-8):2183-2199.
4. Barnett A.G., Tong S., Clements A.C.A. What measure of temperature is the best predictor of mortality?. Environ Res 2010, 110:604-611.
5. Brazel A.J., Selover N., Vose R., Geisler G. The tale of two climates-Baltimore and Phoenix urban LTER sites. Clim Res 2000, 15:123-135.
6. Chow W.T., Chuang W.C., Gober P. Vulnerability to extreme heat in metropolitan Phoenix: spatial, temporal, and demographic dimensions. Prof Geogr 2012, 64(2):286-302.
7. Chuang W.C., Gober P., Chow W.T., Golden J. Sensitivity to heat: a comparative study of Phoenix, Arizona and Chicago, Illinois (2003-2006). Urban Clim 2013, 5:1-18.
8. Confalonieri U., Menne B., Akhtar R., Ebi K.L., Hauengue M., Kovats R.S., et al. Human health. Climate Change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007, 391-431. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linded, C.E. Hanson, M.L. Parry (Eds.).
9. Curriero F.C., Heiner K.S., Samet J.M., Zeger S.L., Strug L., Patz J.A. Temperature and mortality in 11 cities of the eastern United States. Am J Epidemiol 2002, 155:80-87.
10. Davis R.E., Knappenberger P.C., Michaels P.J., Novicoff W.M. Changing heat-related mortality in the United States. Environ Health Perspect 2003, 111:1712-1718.
11. Ebi K.L., Kovats R.S., Menne B. An approach for assessing human health vulnerability and public health interventions to adapt to climate change. Environ Health Perspect 2006, 114(12):1930.
12. Georgescu M., Moustaoui M., Mahalov A., Dudhia J. An alternative explanation of the semiarid urban area "oasis effect". J Geophys Res 2011, 116:D24113.
13. Georgescu M., Mahalov A., Moustaoui M. Seasonal hydroclimatic impacts of Sun Corridor expansion. Environ Res Lett 2012, 7(3):034026.
14. Georgescu M., Moustaoui M., Mahalov A., Dudhia J. Summer-time climate impacts of projected megapolitan expansion in Arizona. Nat Clim Change 2013, 3(1):37-41.
15. Georgescu M., Morefield P.E., Bierwagen B.G., Weaver C.P. Urban adaptation can roll back warming of emerging metropolitan regions. Proc Natl Acad Sci 2014, 111(8):2909-2914.
16. Golden J.S., Hartz D., Brazel A., Luber G., Phelan P. A biometeorology study of climate and heat-related morbidity in Phoenix from 2001 to 2006. Int J Biometeorol 2008, 52(6):471-480.
17. Gosling S.N., McGregor G.R., Lowe J.A. Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities Part 2: climate model evaluation and projected impacts from changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change. Int J Biometeorol 2009, 53(1):31-51.
18. Greene S., Kalkstein L.S., Mills D.M., Samenow J. An examination of climate change on extreme heat events and climate-mortality relationships in large US cities. Weather Clim Soc 2011, 3(4):281-292.
19. Harlan S.L., Brazel A.J., Prashad L., Stefanov W.L., Larsen L. Neighborhood microclimates and vulnerability to heat stress. Soc Sci Med 2006, 63(11):2847-2863.
20. Harlan S.L., Declet-Barreto J.H., Stefanov W.L., Petitti D.B. Neighborhood effects on heat deaths: social and environmental predictors of vulnerability in Maricopa County, Arizona. Environ Health Perspect 2013, 121(2):197.
21. Hayhoe K., Cayan D., Field C.B., Frumhoff P.C., Maurer E.P., Millner N.L., et al. Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2004, 101(34):12422-12427.
22. Hondula D.M., Davis R.E., Leisten M.J., Saha M.V., Veazey L.M., Wegner C.R. Fine-scale spatial variability of heat-related mortality in Philadelphia county, USA, from 1983-2008: a case-series analysis. Environ Health 2012, 11:1-11.
23. Hondula D.M., Vanos J.K., Gosling S.N. The SSC: a decade of climate-health research and future directions. Int J Biometeorol 2013, [Online 29 January 2013]. 10.1007/s00484-012-0619-6.
24. Huang C., Barnett A.G., Wang X., Vaneckova P., FitzGerald G., Tong S. Projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios: a systematic review. Environ Health Perspect 2011, 119:1681-1690.
25. Imhoff M.L., Zhang P., Wolfe R.E., Bounoua L. Remote sensing of the urban heat island effect across biomes in the continental USA. Remote Sens Environ 2010, 114:504-513.
26. Jenerette G.D., Harlan S.L., Stefanov W.L., Martin C.A. Ecosystem services and urban heat riskscape moderation: water, green spaces, and social inequality in Phoenix, USA. Ecol Appl 2011, 21(7):2637-2651.
27. Kalkstein L.S., Greene J.S. An evaluation of climate/mortality relationships in large US cities and the possible impacts of a climate change. Environ Health Perspect 1997, 105(1):84.
28. Knowlton K., Lynn B., Goldberg R.A., Rosenzweig C., Hogrefe C., Rosenthal J.K., et al. Projecting heat-related mortality impacts under a changing climate in the New York City region. Am J Public Health 2007, 97(11):2028-2034.
29. Kovats R.S., Hajat S. Heat stress and public health: a critical review. Annu Rev Public Health 2008, 29:41-55.
30. Li T., Horton R.M., Kinney P.L. Projections of seasonal patterns in temperature-related deaths for Manhattan, New York. Nat Clim Change 2013, [Online 19 May 2013]. 10.1037/nclimate1902.
31. Luber G., McGeehin M. Climate change and extreme heat events. Am J Prev Med 2008, 35(5):429-435.
32. Luber G.E., Sanchez C., Conklin L. Heat-related deaths: United States, 1999-2003. Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2006, 55(29):796-798.
33. MCDPH (Maricopa County Department of Public Health) Maricopa County Department of Public Health health statistics and reports: heat reports Available, [accessed 10 October 2013]. http://www.maricopa.gov/publichealth/Services/EPI/Reports/heat.aspx.
34. McMichael A.J., Woodruff R.E., Hales S. Climate change and human health: present and future risks. Lancet 2006, 367(9513):859-869.
35. O'Neill M.S., Carter R., Kish J.K., Gronlund C.J., White-Newsome J.L., Manarolla X., et al. Preventing heat-related morbidity and mortality: new approaches in a changing climate. Maturitas 2009, 64(2):98-103.
36. Ostro B., Rauch S., Green S. Quantifying the health impacts of future changes in temperature in California. Environ Res 2011, 111(8):1258-1264.
37. Petitti D.B., Harlan S.L., Chowell-Puente G., Ruddell D. Occupation and environmental heat-associated deaths in Maricopa County, Arizona: a case-control study. PLoS One 2013, 8(5):e62596.
38. Petkova E.P., Horton R.M., Bader D.A., Kinney P.L. Projected heat-related mortality in the US urban northeast. Int J Environ Res Public Health 2013, 10(12):6734-6747.
39. R Development Core Team R: a language and environment for statistical computing 2012, R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, [www.R-project.org].
40. Ruddell D.M., Harlan S.L., Grossman-Clarke S., Byuntajev A. Risk and exposure to extreme heat in microclimates of Phoenix, AZ. Geospatial techniques in urban hazard and disaster analysis 2009, 179-202. Springer, New York. Y. Lu, P.S. Showalter (Eds.).
41. Saha M.V., Davis R.E., Hondula D.M. Mortality Displacement as a Function of Heat Event Strength in 7 US Cities. American journal of epidemiology 2014, 179(4):467-474.
42. Sheridan S.C., Kalkstein L.S. Progress in heat watch-warning system technology. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 2004, 85:1931-1942.
43. Sheridan S.C., Kalkstein A.J. Seasonal variability in heat-related mortality across the United States. Nat Hazards 2010, 55(2):291-305.
44. Sheridan S.C., Allen M.J., Lee C.C., Kalkstein L.S. Future heat vulnerability in California, Part II: projecting future heat-related mortality. Clim Change 2012, 115(2):311-326.
45. Skamarock W.C., Klemp B.J. A time-split nonhydrostatic atmospheric model for weather research and forecasting applications. J Comput Phys 2008, 227:3465-3485.
46. Thornton P.E., Running S.W., White M.A. Generating surfaces of daily meteorological variables over large regions of complex terrain. J Hydrol 1997, 190(3):214-251.
47. Thornton P.E., Thornton M.M., Mayer B.W., Wilhelmi N., Wei Y., Cook R.B. DAYMET: daily surface weather on a 1km grid for North America 2012, [1980-2008. Acquired online [http://daymet.ornl.gov/] on 1 August 2013 from Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center, Oak Ridge, TN, USA].
48. Wood S.N. Generalized additive models: an introduction with R 2006, CRC Press.
49. Yip F.Y., Flanders W.D., Wolkin A., Engelthaler D., Humble W., Neri A., et al. The impact of excess heat events in Maricopa County, Arizona: 2000-2005. Int J Biometeorol 2008, 52(8):765-772.