메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 179, Issue 11, 2014, Pages 1383-1393

Recapture or precapture? Fallibility of standard capture-recapture methods in the presence of referrals between sources

Author keywords

bias; log linear models; model selection; parameter identifiability; prevalence estimation; problem drug use

Indexed keywords

DISEASE PREVALENCE; DRUG USER; EPIDEMIOLOGY; LINEARITY; PARAMETERIZATION; POPULATION SIZE; SAMPLING BIAS;

EID: 84900812290     PISSN: 00029262     EISSN: 14766256     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwu056     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (51)

References (57)
  • 1
    • 0028826064 scopus 로고
    • Capture-recapture and multiple-record systems estimation I: History and theoretical development
    • International Working Group for Disease Monitoring and Forecasting
    • International Working Group for Disease Monitoring and Forecasting. Capture-recapture and multiple-record systems estimation I: history and theoretical development. Am J Epidemiol. 1995;142(10):1047-1058.
    • (1995) Am J Epidemiol. , vol.142 , Issue.10 , pp. 1047-1058
  • 2
    • 0029551878 scopus 로고
    • Capture-recapture methods in epidemiology: Methods and limitations
    • Hook EB, Regal RR. Capture-recapture methods in epidemiology: methods and limitations. Epidemiol Rev. 1995; 17(2):243-264 (Pubitemid 26096873)
    • (1995) Epidemiologic Reviews , vol.17 , Issue.2 , pp. 243-264
    • Hook, E.B.1    Regal, R.R.2
  • 3
    • 0028801295 scopus 로고
    • Capture-recapture and multiple-record systems estimation II: Applications in human diseases
    • International Working Group for Disease Monitoring and Forecasting
    • International Working Group for Disease Monitoring and Forecasting. Capture-recapture and multiple-record systems estimation II: applications in human diseases. Am J Epidemiol. 1995;142(10):1059-1068.
    • (1995) Am J Epidemiol. , vol.142 , Issue.10 , pp. 1059-1068
  • 5
    • 84950425550 scopus 로고
    • Modeling capture, recapture, and removal statistics for estimation of demographic parameters for fish and wildlife populations: Past, present, and future
    • Pollock KH. Modeling capture, recapture, and removal statistics for estimation of demographic parameters for fish and wildlife populations: past, present, and future. J Am Stat Assoc. 1991; 86(413):225-238.
    • (1991) J Am Stat Assoc. , vol.86 , Issue.413 , pp. 225-238
    • Pollock, K.H.1
  • 8
    • 68449084436 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimating current injectors in Scotland and their drug-related death rate by sex, region and age-group via Bayesian capture-recapture methods
    • King R, Bird SM, Hay G, et al. Estimating current injectors in Scotland and their drug-related death rate by sex, region and age-group via Bayesian capture-recapture methods. Stat Methods Med Res. 2009;18(4):341-359.
    • (2009) Stat Methods Med Res. , vol.18 , Issue.4 , pp. 341-359
    • King, R.1    Bird, S.M.2    Hay, G.3
  • 9
    • 51249104212 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimating the size and dynamics of an injecting drug user population and implications for health service coverage: Comparison of indirect prevalence estimation methods
    • Kimber J, Hickman M, Degenhardt L, et al. Estimating the size and dynamics of an injecting drug user population and implications for health service coverage: comparison of indirect prevalence estimation methods. Addiction. 2008;103(10): 1604-1613.
    • (2008) Addiction. , vol.103 , Issue.10 , pp. 1604-1613
    • Kimber, J.1    Hickman, M.2    Degenhardt, L.3
  • 12
    • 0028917446 scopus 로고
    • Use of capture-recapture to estimate the prevalence of opiate addiction in Barcelona, Spain 1989
    • Domingo-Salvany A, Hartnoll RL, Maguire A, et al. Use of capture-recapture to estimate the prevalence of opiate addiction in Barcelona, Spain, 1989. Am J Epidemiol. 1995;141(6): 567-574.
    • (1995) Am J Epidemiol. , vol.141 , Issue.6 , pp. 567-574
    • Domingo-Salvany, A.1    Hartnoll, R.L.2    Maguire, A.3
  • 14
    • 84907125333 scopus 로고
    • Population estimates of intravenous drug users and HIV infection in Los Angeles County
    • Hser YI. Population estimates of intravenous drug users and HIV infection in Los Angeles County. Int J Addict. 1993;28(8): 695-709.
    • (1993) Int J Addict. , vol.28 , Issue.8 , pp. 695-709
    • Hser, Y.I.1
  • 15
    • 0028064413 scopus 로고
    • Indirect estimates of 'hidden' populations: Capture-recapture methods to estimate the numbers of heroin users in the Australian Capital Territory
    • DOI 10.1016/0277-9536(94)90044-2
    • Larson A, Stevens A, Wardlaw G. Indirect estimates of 'hidden' populations: capture-recapture methods to estimate the numbers of heroin users in the Australian Capital Territory. Soc Sci Med. 1994;39(6):823-831. (Pubitemid 24241504)
    • (1994) Social Science and Medicine , vol.39 , Issue.6 , pp. 823-831
    • Larson, A.1    Stevens, A.2    Wardlaw, G.3
  • 16
    • 0034952843 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A capture-recapture study of the prevalence and implications of opiate use in Dublin
    • DOI 10.1093/eurpub/11.2.198
    • Comiskey CM, Barry JM. A capture-recapture study of the prevalence and implications of opiate use in Dublin. Eur J Public Health. 2001;11(2):198-200. (Pubitemid 32606540)
    • (2001) European Journal of Public Health , vol.11 , Issue.2 , pp. 198-200
    • Comiskey, C.M.1    Barry, J.M.2
  • 18
    • 0027514301 scopus 로고
    • Application of multiple-capture methods for estimating drug use prevalence
    • Brecht ML, Wickens TD. Application of multiple-capture methods for estimating drug-use prevalence. J Drug Issues. 1993;23(2):229-250. (Pubitemid 23110894)
    • (1993) Journal of Drug Issues , vol.23 , Issue.2 , pp. 229-250
    • Brecht, M.-L.1    Wickens, T.D.2
  • 19
    • 33744548138 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimating drug prevalence: Review of methods with special reference to developing countries
    • Hickman M, Taylor C, Chatterjee A, et al. Estimating drug prevalence: review of methods with special reference to developing countries. UN Bull Narcotics. 2003;54:15-32.
    • (2003) UN Bull Narcotics. , vol.54 , pp. 15-32
    • Hickman, M.1    Taylor, C.2    Chatterjee, A.3
  • 20
    • 0037395404 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimating prevalence of problem drug use at national level in countries of the European Union and Norway
    • DOI 10.1046/j.1360-0443.2003.00326.x
    • Kraus L, Augustin R, Frischer M, et al. Estimating prevalence of problem drug use at national level in countries of the European Union and Norway. Addiction. 2003;98(4):471-485. (Pubitemid 36469264)
    • (2003) Addiction , vol.98 , Issue.4 , pp. 471-485
    • Kraus, L.1    Augustin, R.2    Frischer, M.3    Kummler, P.4    Uhl, A.5    Wiessing, L.6
  • 21
    • 0026776152 scopus 로고
    • Female streetworking prostitution and HIV infection in Glasgow
    • McKeganey N, Barnard M, Leyland A, et al. Female streetworking prostitution and HIV infection in Glasgow. BMJ. 1992;305(6857):801-804.
    • (1992) BMJ. , vol.305 , Issue.6857 , pp. 801-804
    • McKeganey, N.1    Barnard, M.2    Leyland, A.3
  • 22
  • 23
    • 0028103732 scopus 로고
    • Estimating numbers of homeless and homeless mentally ill people in north east Westminster by using capture-recapture analysis
    • Fisher N, Turner SW, Pugh R, et al. Estimated numbers of homeless and homeless mentally ill people in north east Westminster by using capture-recapture analysis. BMJ. 1994; 308(6920):27-30. (Pubitemid 24049000)
    • (1994) British Medical Journal , vol.308 , Issue.6920 , pp. 27-30
    • Fisher, N.1    Turner, S.W.2    Pugh, R.3    Taylor, C.4
  • 25
    • 0028364342 scopus 로고
    • Capture-recapture to estimate the size of the population with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 infection
    • Abeni DD, Brancato G, Perucci CA. Capture-recapture to estimate the size of the population with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 infection. Epidemiology. 1994;5(4):410-414. (Pubitemid 24197055)
    • (1994) Epidemiology , vol.5 , Issue.4 , pp. 410-414
    • Abeni, D.D.1    Brancato, G.2    Perucci, C.A.3
  • 26
    • 84901711889 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction. Methodological guidelines to estimate the prevalence of problem drug use on the local level Published December 1999. Accessed February 26, 2014
    • European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction. Methodological guidelines to estimate the prevalence of problem drug use on the local level. http://www.emcdda.europa. eu/html.cfm/index58064EN.html. Published December 1999. Accessed February 26, 2014.
  • 28
    • 84901713657 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Information Services Division Scotland. Estimating the national and local prevalence of problem drug use in Scotland 2009/10 Published November 29, 2011. Accessed February 26, 2014
    • Information Services Division Scotland. Estimating the national and local prevalence of problem drug use in Scotland 2009/10. http://www.drugmisuse. isdscotland.org/publications/abstracts/prevalence2009-10.htm. Published November 29, 2011. Accessed February 26, 2014.
  • 29
    • 0001210470 scopus 로고
    • Multiple recapture census for closed populations and incomplete 2k contingency tables
    • Fienberg SE. Multiple recapture census for closed populations and incomplete 2k contingency tables. Biometrika. 1972;59(3): 591-603.
    • (1972) Biometrika. , vol.59 , Issue.3 , pp. 591-603
    • Fienberg, S.E.1
  • 30
    • 0035975995 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The applications of capture-recapture models to epidemiological data
    • DOI 10.1002/sim.996
    • Chao A, Tsay PK, Lin SH, et al. The applications of capture-recapture models to epidemiological data. Stat Med. 2001;20(20):3123-3157. (Pubitemid 32982533)
    • (2001) Statistics in Medicine , vol.20 , Issue.20 , pp. 3123-3157
    • Chao, A.1    Tsay, P.K.2    Lin, S.-H.3    Shau, W.-Y.4    Chao, D.-Y.5
  • 31
    • 0033557395 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Capture-recapture models including covariate effects
    • Tilling K, Sterne JAC. Capture-recapture models including covariate effects. Am J Epidemiol. 1999;149(4):392-400. (Pubitemid 29302113)
    • (1999) American Journal of Epidemiology , vol.149 , Issue.4 , pp. 392-400
    • Tilling, K.1    Sterne, J.A.C.2
  • 32
    • 0003018117 scopus 로고
    • Applications of a multinomial capture-recapture model to epidemiological data
    • Wittes JT Applications of a multinomial capture-recapture model to epidemiological data. J Am Stat Assoc. 1974;69(345):93-97.
    • (1974) J Am Stat Assoc. , vol.69 , Issue.345 , pp. 93-97
    • Wittes, J.T.1
  • 33
    • 0015986972 scopus 로고
    • Capture-recapture methods for assessing the completeness of case ascertainment when using multiple information sources
    • Wittes JT, Colton T, Sidel VW. Capture-recapture methods for assessing the completeness of case ascertainment when using multiple information sources. J Chronic Dis. 1974;27(1-2): 25-36.
    • (1974) J Chronic Dis. , vol.27 , Issue.1-2 , pp. 25-36
    • Wittes, J.T.1    Colton, T.2    Sidel, V.W.3
  • 34
    • 0019293858 scopus 로고
    • Use of Bernoulli census and log-linear methods for estimating the prevalence of spina bifida in livebirths and the completeness of vital record reports in New York State
    • Hook EB, Albright SG, Cross PK. Use of Bernoulli census and log-linear methods for estimating the prevalence of spina bifida in livebirths and the completeness of vital record reports in New York State. Am J Epidemiol. 1980;112(6):750-758. (Pubitemid 11130663)
    • (1980) American Journal of Epidemiology , vol.112 , Issue.6 , pp. 750-758
    • Hook, E.1    Albright, S.G.2    Cross, P.K.3
  • 35
    • 0033215054 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Problems with using capture-recapture in epidemiology: An example of a measles epidemic
    • DOI 10.1016/S0895-4356(99)00058-X, PII S089543569900058X
    • Cormack RM. Problems with using capture-recapture in epidemiology: an example of a measles epidemic. J Clin Epidemiol. 1999;52(10):909-914. (Pubitemid 29486555)
    • (1999) Journal of Clinical Epidemiology , vol.52 , Issue.10 , pp. 909-914
    • Cormack, R.M.1
  • 36
    • 0032518989 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Marginal versus conditional versus 'structural source' models: A rationale for an alternative to log-linear methods for capture-recapture estimates
    • DOI 10.1002/(SICI)1097-0258 (19980115)17:1<69:: AID-SIM729>3.0. CO;2-Q
    • Regal RR, Hook EB. Marginal versus conditional versus 'structural source' models: a rationale for an alternative to log-linear methods for capture-recapture estimates. Stat Med. 1998;17(1):69-74. (Pubitemid 28020209)
    • (1998) Statistics in Medicine , vol.17 , Issue.1 , pp. 69-74
    • Regal, R.R.1    Hook, E.B.2
  • 38
    • 0016355478 scopus 로고
    • A new look at the statistical model identification
    • Akaike H. A new look at the statistical model identification. IEEE Trans Automat Contr. 1974;19(6):716-723.
    • (1974) IEEE Trans Automat Contr. , vol.19 , Issue.6 , pp. 716-723
    • Akaike, H.1
  • 40
    • 0006407254 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • WinBUGS-A Bayesian modelling framework: Concepts, structure, and extensibility
    • Lunn DJ, Thomas A, Best N, et al. WinBUGS-a Bayesian modelling framework: concepts, structure, and extensibility. Stat Comput. 2000;10(4):325-337.
    • (2000) Stat Comput. , vol.10 , Issue.4 , pp. 325-337
    • Lunn, D.J.1    Thomas, A.2    Best, N.3
  • 41
    • 49749129588 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the Bayesian estimation of a closed population size in the presence of heterogeneity and model uncertainty
    • King R, Brooks SP. On the Bayesian estimation of a closed population size in the presence of heterogeneity and model uncertainty. Biometrics. 2008;64(3):816-824.
    • (2008) Biometrics. , vol.64 , Issue.3 , pp. 816-824
    • King, R.1    Brooks, S.P.2
  • 42
    • 0014321901 scopus 로고
    • A generalization of the simple capture-recapture model with applications to epidemiological research
    • Wittes J, Sidel VW. A generalization of the simple capture-recapture model with applications to epidemiological research. J Chronic Dis. 1968;21(5):287-301.
    • (1968) J Chronic Dis. , vol.21 , Issue.5 , pp. 287-301
    • Wittes, J.1    Sidel, V.W.2
  • 43
    • 33750138728 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Out of crime and into treatment?: The criminalization of contemporary drug policy since Tackling Drugs Together
    • DOI 10.1080/09687630600613520, PII H120WG2671208477
    • Duke K. Out of crime and into treatment? The criminalization of contemporary drug policy since tackling drugs together. Drugs Educ Prev Policy. 2006;13(5):409-415. (Pubitemid 44595026)
    • (2006) Drugs: Education, Prevention and Policy , vol.13 , Issue.5 , pp. 409-415
    • Duke, K.1
  • 44
    • 33745648936 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Using multiple sources to improve and measure case ascertainment in surveillance studies: 20 Years of the British Paediatric Surveillance Unit
    • DOI 10.1093/pubmed/fdl005
    • Knowles RL, Smith A, Lynn R, et al. Using multiple sources to improve and measure case ascertainment in surveillance studies: 20 years of the British Paediatric Surveillance Unit. J Public Health. 2006;28(2):157-165. (Pubitemid 43966737)
    • (2006) Journal of Public Health , vol.28 , Issue.2 , pp. 157-165
    • Knowles, R.L.1    Smith, A.2    Lynn, R.3    Rahi, J.S.4
  • 45
    • 56349127385 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Record-linkage and capture-recapture analysis to estimate the incidence and completeness of reporting of tuberculosis in England 1999-2002
    • Van Hest NA, Story A, Grant AD, et al. Record-linkage and capture-recapture analysis to estimate the incidence and completeness of reporting of tuberculosis in England 1999-2002. Epidemiol Infect. 2008;136(12):1606-1616.
    • (2008) Epidemiol Infect. , vol.136 , Issue.12 , pp. 1606-1616
    • Van Hest, N.A.1    Story, A.2    Grant, A.D.3
  • 46
    • 0033949940 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Congenital and infantile cataract in the United Kingdom: Underlying or associated factors
    • Rahi JS, Dezateux C. Congenital and infantile cataract in the United Kingdom: underlying or associated factors. British Congenital Cataract Interest Group. Invest Ophthalmol Vis Sci. 2000;41(8):2108-2114. (Pubitemid 30450981)
    • (2000) Investigative Ophthalmology and Visual Science , vol.41 , Issue.8 , pp. 2108-2114
    • Rahi, J.S.1    Dezateux, C.2
  • 47
    • 0032952573 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Capture-recapture analysis of ascertainment by active surveillance in the British congenital cataract study
    • Rahi JS, Dezateux C. Capture-recapture analysis of ascertainment by active surveillance in the British Congenital Cataract Study. Invest Ophthalmol Vis Sci. 1999;40(1): 236-239. (Pubitemid 29029593)
    • (1999) Investigative Ophthalmology and Visual Science , vol.40 , Issue.1 , pp. 236-239
    • Rahi, J.S.1    Dezateux, C.2
  • 48
    • 43049090060 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multiple sclerosis prevalence and possible lead exposure
    • Turabelidze G, Schootman M, Zhu BP, et al. Multiple sclerosis prevalence and possible lead exposure. J Neurol Sci. 2008; 269(1-2):158-162.
    • (2008) J Neurol Sci. , vol.269 , Issue.1-2 , pp. 158-162
    • Turabelidze, G.1    Schootman, M.2    Zhu, B.P.3
  • 49
    • 0029986275 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Case counting in epidemiology: Limitations of methods based on multiple data sources
    • DOI 10.1093/ije/25.3.474
    • Papoz L, Balkau B, Lellouch J. Case counting in epidemiology: limitations of methods based on multiple data sources. Int J Epidemiol. 1996;25(3):474-478. (Pubitemid 26229546)
    • (1996) International Journal of Epidemiology , vol.25 , Issue.3 , pp. 474-478
    • Papoz, L.1    Balkau, B.2    Lellouch, J.3
  • 50
    • 77953614498 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimating unreported malaria cases in England: A capture-recapture study
    • Cathcart SJ, Lawrence J, Grant A, et al. Estimating unreported malaria cases in England: a capture-recapture study. Epidemiol Infect. 2010;138(7):1052-1058.
    • (2010) Epidemiol Infect. , vol.138 , Issue.7 , pp. 1052-1058
    • Cathcart, S.J.1    Lawrence, J.2    Grant, A.3
  • 51
    • 0024474469 scopus 로고
    • Log-linear models for capture-recapture
    • Cormack RM. Log-linear models for capture-recapture. Biometrics. 1989;45(2):395-413.
    • (1989) Biometrics. , vol.45 , Issue.2 , pp. 395-413
    • Cormack, R.M.1
  • 52
    • 0033215284 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Recommendations for presentation and evaluation of capture-recapture estimates in epidemiology
    • DOI 10.1016/S0895-4356(99)00060-8, PII S0895435699000608
    • Hook EB, Regal RR. Recommendations for presentation and evaluation of capture-recapture estimates in epidemiology. J Clin Epidemiol. 1999;52(10):917-926. (Pubitemid 29486557)
    • (1999) Journal of Clinical Epidemiology , vol.52 , Issue.10 , pp. 917-926
    • Hook, E.B.1    Regal, R.R.2
  • 53
    • 0034535769 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the need for a 16th and 17th recommendation for capture-recapture analysis (multiple letters) [1]
    • DOI 10.1016/S0895-4356(00)00247-X
    • Hook EB, Regal RR. On the need for a 16th and 17th recommendations for capture-recapture analysis. J Clin Epidemiol. 2000;53(12):1275-1277. (Pubitemid 32007844)
    • (2000) Journal of Clinical Epidemiology , vol.53 , Issue.12 , pp. 1275-1277
    • Hook, E.B.1    Regal, R.R.2    Cormack, R.3
  • 55
    • 84891903138 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimating prevalence of injecting drug users and associated heroin-related death rates in England by using regional data and incorporating prior information
    • King R, Bird SM, Overstall AM, et al. Estimating prevalence of injecting drug users and associated heroin-related death rates in England by using regional data and incorporating prior information. J R Stat Soc Ser A Stat Soc. 2014;177(1):209-236.
    • (2014) J R Stat Soc ser A Stat Soc. , vol.177 , Issue.1 , pp. 209-236
    • King, R.1    Bird, S.M.2    Overstall, A.M.3
  • 56
    • 84882269764 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multiple parameter evidence synthesis-A potential solution for when information on drug use and harm is in conflict
    • Hickman M, De Angelis D, Jones H, et al. Multiple parameter evidence synthesis-a potential solution for when information on drug use and harm is in conflict. Addiction. 2013;108(9): 1529-1531.
    • (2013) Addiction. , vol.108 , Issue.9 , pp. 1529-1531
    • Hickman, M.1    De Angelis, D.2    Jones, H.3
  • 57
    • 57349189389 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multiparameter evidence synthesis in epidemiology and medical decision-making
    • Ades AE, Welton NJ, Caldwell D, et al. Multiparameter evidence synthesis in epidemiology and medical decision-making. J Health Serv Res Policy. 2008;13(suppl 3):12-22.
    • (2008) J Health Serv Res Policy. , vol.13 , Issue.SUPPL. 3 , pp. 12-22
    • Ades, A.E.1    Welton, N.J.2    Caldwell, D.3


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.