Research priorities in modeling the transmission risks of H7N9 bird flu

Infectious Diseases of Poverty

Volumn 2, Issue 1, 2013, Pages

  Wiwanitkit, Viroj ^a,b,c   Shi, Benyun ^d   Xia, Shang ^d   Yang, Guo Jing ^e   Zhou, Xiao Nong ^f,g,h   Liu, Jiming ^d  

^a not available   (Thailand)

^b HAINAN MEDICAL UNIVERSITY   (China)

^c UNIVERSITY OF NI   (Serbia)

^d HONG KONG BAPTIST UNIVERSITY   (Hong Kong)

^e CHINESE UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG   (Hong Kong)

^f CHINESE CENTER FOR DISEASE CONTROL AND PREVENTION   (China)

^g Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology MOH   (China)

^h WHO Collaborating Center for Malaria Schistosomiasis and Filariasis   (China)

Author keywords

Bird flu; H7N9; Modeling; Priorities; Transmission

Indexed keywords

HEMAGGLUTININ; SIALIDASE;

AVIAN INFLUENZA; DISEASE SURVEILLANCE; DISEASE TRANSMISSION; GENETIC REASSORTMENT; HUMAN; IMMUNITY; INFLUENZA VIRUS A H7N9; LETTER; MUTATION; NONHUMAN; POPULATION MIGRATION; PRIORITY JOURNAL; RISK; SEASONAL VARIATION;

EID: 84899798336     PISSN: None     EISSN: 20499957     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1186/2049-9957-2-17     Document Type: Letter

References (63)

1. Shi B, Xia S, Yang GJ, Zhou XN, Liu J. Inferring the potential risks of H7N9 infection by spatiotemporally characterizing bird migration and poultry distribution in eastern China. Infect Dis Poverty 2013, 2(1):8. 10.1186/2049-9957-2-8, 3710089, 23849083.
2. Ríos-Soto KR, Song B, Castillo-Chavez C. Epidemic spread of influenza viruses: The impact of transient populations on disease dynamics. Math Biosci Eng 2011, 8(1):199-222.
3. Dugan VG. A robust tool highlights the influence of bird migration on influenza A virus evolution. Mol Ecol 2012, 21(24):5905-5907. 10.1111/mec.12101, 23355978.
4. Muzyka D, Pantin-Jackwood M, Spackman E, Stegniy B, Rula O, Shutchenko P. Avian influenza virus wild bird surveillance in the Azov and Black Sea regions of Ukraine (2010-2011). Avian Dis 2012, 56(4 Suppl):1010-1016.
5. Takekawa JY, Newman SH, Xiao X, Prosser DJ, Spragens KA, Palm EC, Yan B, Li T, Lei F, Zhao D, Douglas DC, Muzaffar SB, Ji W. Migration of waterfowl in the East Asian flyway and spatial relationship to HPAI H5N1 outbreaks. Avian Dis 2010, 54(1 Suppl):466-476.
6. Nelson RJ, Demas GE. Seasonal changes in immune function. Q Rev Biol 1996, 71(4):511-548. 10.1086/419555, 8987173.
7. Hegemann A, Matson KD, Both C, Tieleman BI. Immune function in a free-living bird varies over the annual cycle, but seasonal patterns differ between years. Oecologia 2012, 170(3):605-618. 10.1007/s00442-012-2339-3, 3470818, 22562421.
8. Prosser DJ, Cui P, Takekawa JY, Tang M, Hou Y, Collins BM, Yan B, Hill NJ, Li T, Li Y, Lei F, Guo S, Xing Z, He Y, Zhou Y, Douglas DC, Perry WM, Newman SH. Wild bird migration across the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau: a transmission route for highly pathogenic H5N1. PLoS One 2011, 6(3):e17622. 10.1371/journal.pone.0017622, 3052365, 21408010.
9. Gilbert M, Newman SH, Takekawa JY, Loth L, Biradar C, Prosser DJ, Balachandran S, Subba Rao MV, Mundkur T, Yan B, Xing Z, Hou Y, Batbayar N, Natsagdorj T, Hogerwerf L, Slingenbergh J, Xiao X. Flying over an infected landscape: distribution of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 risk in South Asia and satellite tracking of wild waterfowl. Ecohealth 2010, 7(4):448-458. 10.1007/s10393-010-0672-8, 3166606, 21267626.
10. Newman SH, Hill NJ, Spragens KA, Janies D, Voronkin IO, Prosser DJ, Yan B, Lei F, Batbayar N, Natsagdorj T, Bishop CM, Butler PJ, Wikelski M, Balachandran S, Mundkur T, Douglas DC, Takekawa JY. Eco-virological approach for assessing the role of wild birds in the spread of avian influenza H5N1 along the Central Asian Flyway. PLoS One 2012, 7(2):e30636. 10.1371/journal.pone.0030636, 3274535, 22347393.
11. Ahmed SS, Themudo GE, Christensen JP, Biswas PK, Giasuddin M, Samad MA, Toft N, Ersbøll AK. Molecular epidemiology of circulating highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) virus in chickens, in Bangladesh, 2007-2010. Vaccine 2012, 30(51):7381-7390. 10.1016/j.vaccine.2012.09.081, 23063840.
12. Klimov A, Donis RO, Lindstrom SE, York IA, Shu B, Loughlin R, Ferdinand K, Vui DT, Simpson N, Huong NT, Balish A, Dang NH, Jones J, Hoa Do T, Nguyen T, Rivailler P, Davis CT. Evolution of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) virus populations in Vietnam between 2007 and 2010. Virology 2012, 432(2):405-416. 10.1016/j.virol.2012.06.021, 22818871.
13. Lam TT, Hon CC, Lemey P, Pybus OG, Shi M, Tun HM, Li J, Jiang J, Holmes EC, Leung FC. Phylodynamics of H5N1 avian influenza virus in Indonesia. Mol Ecol 2012, 21(12):3062-3077. 10.1111/j.1365-294X.2012.05577.x, 22574738.
14. Majidzadeh K, Karimi V, Soleimanidor M, Estabragh AS, Barin A, Langeroudi AG. Phylogenetic study on nonstructural (NS) gene of H9N2 isolated from broilers in Iran during 1998-2007. Pak J Biol Sci 2011, 14(17):838-843. 10.3923/pjbs.2011.838.843, 22590834.
15. Sims LD, Domenech J, Benigno C, Kahn S, Kamata A, Lubroth J, Martin V, Roeder P. Origin and evolution of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza in Asia. Vet Rec 2005, 157(6):159-164.
16. Jadhao SJ, Nguyen DC, Uyeki TM, Shaw M, Maines T, Rowe T, Smith C, Huynh LP, Nghiem HK, Nguyen DH, Nguyen HK, Nguyen HH, Hoang LT, Nguyen T, Phuong LS, Klimov A, Tumpey TM, Cox NJ, Donis RO, Matsuoka Y, Katz JM. Genetic analysis of avian influenza A viruses isolated from domestic waterfowl in live-bird markets of Hanoi, Vietnam, preceding fatal H5N1 human infections in 2004. Arch Virol 2009, 154(8):1249-1261. 10.1007/s00705-009-0429-2, 19578928.
17. Pavade G, Awada L, Hamilton K, Swayne DE. The influence of economic indicators, poultry density and the performance of veterinary services on the control of high-pathogenicity avian influenza in poultry. Rev Sci Tech 2011, 30(3):661-671.
18. Capua I, Cattoli G. Prevention and control of highly pathogenic avian influenza with particular reference to H5N1. Virus Res 2013, pii: S0168-1702(13)00116-0. http://dx.org/10.1016/j.virusres.2013.04.002. [Epub ahead of print].
19. Sultana R, Nahar N, Rimi NA, Azad S, Islam MS, Gurley ES, Luby SP. Backyard poultry raising in Bangladesh: a valued resource for the villagers and a setting for zoonotic transmission of avian influenza. A qualitative study. Rural Remote Health 2012, 12:1927.
20. Fournié G, Guitian J, Desvaux S, Cuong VC, Dung Do H, Pfeiffer DU, Mangtani P, Ghani AC. Interventions for avian influenza A (H5N1) risk management in live bird market networks. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2013, 110(22):9177-82. 10.1073/pnas.1220815110, 3670392, 23650388.
21. Miller RS, Steven JS, Judy EA, Emi KS. Assessment of introduction pathway for novel avian influenza virus into North America by wild birds from Eurasia 2013, Fort Collins: USDA:APHIS:VS: Center for Epidemology and Animal Health.
22. Kilpatrick AM, Chmura AA, Gibbons DW, Fleischer RC, Marra PP, Daszak P. Predicting the global spread of H5N1 avian influenza. Proc Natl Acad Sci 2006, 103(51):19368-19373. 10.1073/pnas.0609227103, 1748232, 17158217.
23. Liang L, Xu B, Chen Y, Liu Y, Cao W, Fang L, Feng L, Goodchild MF, Gong P. Combining spatial-temporal and phylogenetic analysis approaches for improved understanding on global H5N1 transmission. PLoS One 2010, 5(10):e13575. 10.1371/journal.pone.0013575, 2962646, 21042591.
24. Migratory Bird Program Source: http://www.fws.gov/migratorybirds/flyways.html.
25. Liu D, Shi W, Shi Y, Wang D, Xiao H, Li W, Bi Y, et al. Origin and diversity of novel avian influenza A H7N9 viruses causing human infection: phylogenetic, structural, and coalescent analyses. Lancet 2013, 381(9881):1926-1932. 10.1016/S0140-6736(13)60938-1, 23643111.
26. Gao R, Cao B, Hu Y, Feng Z, Wang D, Hu W, Chen J, et al. Human infection with a novel avian-origin influenza A (H7N9) virus. N Engl J Med 2013, 368(20):1888-1897. 10.1056/NEJMoa1304459, 23577628.
27. Widjaja L, Krauss SL, Webby RJ, Xie T, Webster RG. Matrix gene of influenza a viruses isolated from wild aquatic birds: ecology and emergence of influenza a viruses. J Virol 2004, 78(16):8771-8779. 10.1128/JVI.78.16.8771-8779.2004, 479093, 15280485.
28. Fuller TL, Gilbert M, Martin V, Cappelle J, Hosseini P, Njabo KY, Aziz SA, Xiao X, Daszak P, Smith TB. Predicting hotspots for influenza virus reassortment. Emerging Infect Dis 2013, 19(4):581-588. 10.3201/eid1904.120903, 3647410, 23628436.
29. Pearce JM, Reeves AB, Ramey AM, Hupp JW, Ip HS, Bertram M, Petrula MJ, et al. Interspecific exchange of avian influenza virus genes in Alaska: the influence of trans-hemispheric migratory tendency and breeding ground sympatry. Mol Ecol 2011, 20(5):1015-1025. 10.1111/j.1365-294X.2010.04908.x, 3041836, 21073586.
30. Pearce JM, Ramey AM, Flint PL, Koehler AV, Fleskes JP, Franson JC, Hall JS, Derksen DV, Ip HS. Avian influenza at both ends of a migratory flyway: characterizing viral genomic diversity to optimize surveillance plans for North America. Evolutionary Appl 2009, 2(4):457-468.
31. Dugan VG, Chen R, Spiro DJ, Sengamalay N, Zaborsky J, Ghedin E, Nolting J, et al. The evolutionary genetics and emergence of avian influenza viruses in wild birds. PLoS Pathog 2008, 4(5):e1000076. 10.1371/journal.ppat.1000076, 2387073, 18516303.
32. Zhou Y, Pan W, Li J, Wang W, Shao J, Wu L, Yang Q, Yan B. Bird Flu Outbreak Prediction via Satellite Tracking. IEEE Intell Syst 2013, 1:1.
33. USGS North American bird banding and band encounter data set 2011, Laurel, MD: United States Geologic Survey Bird Banding Laboratory, Patuxenet Wildlife Research Center, USGS.
34. Welcome to eBird Source: http://ebird.org.
35. China Bird Watching Network Website Source: http://www.chinabirdnet.org/.
36. Elmohamed M, Kozen D, Sheldon DR. Collective inference on Markov models for modeling bird migration. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 2007, 1321-1328.
37. Wu X, Kumar A, Sheldon D, Zilberstein S. Parameter Learning for Latent Network Diffusion. Proceedings of the Twenty-Third International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence 2013, Beijing: Ios Press.
38. Fink D, Hochachka WM, Zuckerberg B, Winkler DW, Shaby B, Munson MA, Hooker G, Riedewald M, Sheldon D, Kelling S. Spatiotemporal exploratory models for broad-scale survey data. Ecol Appl 2010, 20(8):2131-2147. 10.1890/09-1340.1, 21265447.
39. Gelfand AE, Diggle PJ, Fuentes M, Guttorp P. Handbook of spatial statistics. Chapman and hall/CRC handbooks of modern statistical methods 2010, New York: CRC Press.
40. Kulldorff M. A spatial scan statistic. Commun Stat-Theory Methods 1997, 26(6):1481-1496.
41. Ester M, Kriegel HP, Sander J, Xu X. A density-based algorithm for discovering clusters in large spatial databases with noise. In KDD 1996, 96:226-231.
42. Daszykowski M, Walczak B, Massart DL. Looking for natural patterns in data: Part 1. Density-based approach. Chemom Intell Lab Syst 2001, 56(2):83-92.
43. Hall JS, Franson JC, Gill RE, Meteyer CU, Teslaa JL, et al. Experimental challenge and pathology of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1 in dunlin (Calidris alpina), an intercontinental migrant shorebird species. Influenza Other Respi Viruses 2011, 5(5):365-372. 10.1111/j.1750-2659.2011.00238.x, 21668687.
44. Hall JS, Krauss S, Franson JC, TeSlaa JL, Nashold SW, Stallknecht DE, Webby RJ, Webster RG. Avian influenza in shorebirds: experimental infection of ruddy turnstones (Arenaria interpres) with avian influenza virus. Influenza Other Respi Viruses 2013, 7(1):85-92. 10.1111/j.1750-2659.2012.00358.x, 22498031.
45. H7N9 Bird Flu Virus Capable of Airborne Transmission Source: http://esciencenews.com/sources/live.science/2013/07/18/h7n9.bird.flu.virus.capable.airborne.transmission;http://esciencenews.com/sources/science.now/2013/07/18/can.dangerous.bird.flu.virus.fly.between.humans.
46. Dudley JP. Age-specific infection and death rates for human A (H5N1) avian influenza in Egypt. Eurosurveillance 2009, 14:18.
47. Fisman DN, Savage R, Gubbay J, Achonu C, Akwar H, Farrell DJ, Crowcroft NS, Jackson P. Older age and a reduced likelihood of 2009 H1N1 virus infection. N Engl J Med 2009, 361(20):2000-2001. 10.1056/NEJMc0907256, 19907052.
48. Karageorgopoulos DE, Vouloumanou EK, Korbila IP, Kapaskelis A, Falagas ME. Age distribution of cases of 2009 (H1N1) pandemic influenza in comparison with seasonal influenza. PLoS One 2011, 6(7):e21690. 10.1371/journal.pone.0021690, 3128617, 21747947.
49. Mostaço-Guidolin LC, Towers SM, Buckeridge DL, Moghadas SM. Age Distribution of Infection and Hospitalization among Canadian First Nations Populations During the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic. Am J Public Health 2013, 103(2):e39-e44. 10.2105/AJPH.2012.300820, 23678907.
50. Medlock J, Galvani AP. Optimizing influenza vaccine distribution. Science 2009, 325(5948):1705-1708. 10.1126/science.1175570, 19696313.
51. Xia S, Liu J, Cheung W. Identifying the Relative Priorities of Subpopulations for Containing Infectious Disease Spread. PLoS One 2013, 8(6):e65271. 10.1371/journal.pone.0065271, 3680496, 23776461.
52. Galvani AP, Reluga TC, Chapman GB. Long-standing influenza vaccination policy is in accord with individual self-interest but not with the utilitarian optimum. Proc Nat Acad Sci 2007 2007, 104(13):5692-5697.
53. Xia S, Liu J. A Computational Approach to Characterizing the Impact of Social Influence on Individuals' Vaccination Decision Making. PLoS One 2013, 8(4):e60373. 10.1371/journal.pone.0060373, 3621873, 23585835.
54. Lau JTF, Yeung NCY, Choi KC, Cheng MYM, Tsui HY, Griffiths S. Acceptability of A/H1N1 vaccination during pandemic phase of influenza A/H1N1 in Hong Kong: population based cross sectional survey. Br Med J 2009, 339:b4164.
55. El-Zoghby EF, Aly MM, Nasef SA, Hassan MK, Arafa AS, Selim AA, Kholousy SG, Kilany WH, Safwat M, Abdelwhab EM, Hafez HM. Surveillance on A/H5N1 virus in domestic poultry and wild birds in Egypt. Virol J 2013, 10:203. 10.1186/1743-422X-10-203, 3699397, 23799999.
56. Abdelwhab EM, Hafez HM. An overview of the epidemic of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza virus in Egypt: epidemiology and control challenges. Epidemiol Infect 2011, 139(5):647-57. 10.1017/S0950268810003122, 21281550.
57. Kudo K, Manabe T, Izumi S, Takasaki J. Trends in and challenges for highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1). Nihon Rinsho 2010, 68(9):1736-42.
58. Anderson T, Capua I, Dauphin G, Donis R, Fouchier R, Mumford E, Peiris M, Swayne D, Thiermann A. FAO-OIE-WHO Joint Technical Consultation on Avian Influenza at the Human-Animal Interface. Influenza Other Respi Viruses 2010, 4(Suppl 1):1-29.
59. Dauphin G, Hamilton K, Kim LM, Choudhury B, Capua I, Edwards S. Main achievements of the World Organisation for Animal Health/United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization network on animal influenza. Avian Dis 2010, 54(1 Suppl):380-3.
60. Khan AU. Bird Flu: a recent threat to human health. Bioinformation 2006, 1(4):132. 10.6026/97320630001132, 1891670, 17597873.
61. Vanthemsche P, Robesyn E, Claeys H, Matthijs B, Snacken R, Maes S, Jooris I, Reynders D, Guilmin P, Janssens W, Moriaux R, Haucotte G. Influenza: an example of interdisciplinary analysis of risks. Bull Mem Acad R Med Belg 2006, 161(5):246-58.
62. Breton V, da Costa AL, de Vlieger P, Kim YM, Maigne L, Reuillon R, Sarramia D, Truong NH, Nguyen HQ, Kim D, Wu YT. Innovative in silico approaches to address avian flu using grid technology. Infect Disord Drug Targets 2009, 9(3):358-65. 10.2174/1871526510909030358, 19519488.
63. Shapshak P, Chiappelli F, Somboonwit C, Sinnott J. The influenza pandemic of 2009: lessons and implications. Mol Diagn Ther 2011, 15(2):63-81. 10.1007/BF03256397, 21623644.