Regionalisation of global insights into dryland vulnerability: Better reflecting smallholders' vulnerability in Northeast Brazil

Global Environmental Change

Volumn 25, Issue 1, 2014, Pages 173-185

  Sietz, Diana ^a,b  

^a POTSDAM INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE IMPACT RESEARCH   (Germany)

^b WAGENINGEN UNIVERSITY   (Netherlands)

Author keywords

Adaptation; Dryland agriculture; Perturbation; Qualitative dynamic modelling; Scale; Typology

Indexed keywords

EID: 84898451270     PISSN: 09593780     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.01.010     Document Type: Article

References (98)

1. Adger W.N., Kelly P.M. Social vulnerability to climate change and the architecture of entitlements. Mitig. Adapt. Strateg. Glob. Change 1999, 4:253-266.
2. Adger W.N., Arnell N.W., Tompkins E.L. Successful adaptation to climate change across scales. Glob. Environ. Change 2005, 15:77-86.
3. ADW World Risk Report 2012 2012, Alliance Development Works, Berlin, Germany.
4. Bridge Over Troubled Waters: Linking Climate Change and Development 2005, OECD, Paris, France. S. Agrawala (Ed.).
5. Alcamo J., Döll P., Henrichs T., Kasper F., Lehner B., Rösch T., Siebert S. Development and testing of the WaterGAP 2 global model of water use and availability. Hydrol. Sci. J. 2003, 48:317-337.
6. Andersen E., Elbersen B., Godeschalk F., Verhoog D. Farm management indicators and farm typologies as a basis for assessments in a changing policy environment. J. Environ. Manag. 2007, 82:353-362.
7. Andreae B. Agrargeographie, Strukturzonen und Betriebsformen in der Weltwirtschaft 1977, De Gruyter, Berlin, New York.
8. Avaliação do Polonordeste e do Projeto Sertanejo 1985, Secretaria de Planejamento da Presidência da República, Instituto de Planejamento EconÔmico e Social, Ministério do Interior, Superintendência do Desenvolvimento do Nordeste, Banco do Nordeste do Brasil, Fortaleza, Brazil. A.A. Araújo Filho, A.E. De Vasconcelos (Eds.).
9. Barbieri A.F., Domingues E., Queiroz B.L., Ruiz R.M., Rigotti J.I., Carvalho J.A.M., Resende M.F. Climate change and population migration in Brazil's Northeast: scenarios for 2025-2050. Popul. Environ. 2010, 31:344-370.
10. Bezerra N.F. Água no semi-árido nordestino. Experiências e desafios. Água e desenvolvimento sustentável no Semi-Árido 2002, 35-51. Fundação Konrad Adenauer, Fortaleza, Brazil. W. Hofmeister (Ed.).
11. Birkmann J. Risk and vulnerability indicators at different scales: applicability, usefulness and policy implications. Environ. Hazards 2007, 7:20-31.
12. BNB Fruticultura irrigada: Os casos das regiões de Petrolina-Juazeiro e Norte de Minas Gerais 2000, Banco do Nordeste do Brasil, Fortaleza, Brazil.
13. Briske D.D., Washington-Allen R.A., Johnson C.R., Lockwood J.A., Lockwood D.R., Stringham T.K., Shugart H.H. Catastrophic thresholds: a synthesis of concepts, perspectives and applications. Ecol. Soc. 2010, 15(3):37.
14. Brookfield H., Stocking M. Agrodiversity: definition, description and design. Glob. Environ. Change 1999, 9:77-80.
15. Brooks N., Adger W.N., Kelly P.M. The determinants of vulnerability and adaptive capacity at the national level and the implications for adaptation. Glob. Environ. Change 2005, 15:151-163.
16. Campbell B.M., Gordon I.J., Luckert M.K., Petheram L., Vetter S. In search of optimal stocking regimes in semi-arid grazing lands: one size does not fit all. Ecol. Econ. 2006, 60:75-85.
17. Carpenter S.R., Walker B.H., Anderies J.M., Abel N. From metaphor to measurement: resilience of what to what?. Ecosystems 2001, 4:765-781.
18. Carvalho O., Egler C.A.G. Alternativas de desenvolvimento para o Nordeste semiárido 2003, Banco do Nordeste do Brasil, Fortaleza, Brazil.
19. Cash D.W., Adger W.N., Berkes F., Garden P., Lebel L., Olsson P., Pritchard L., Young O. Scale and cross-scale dynamics: Governance and information in a multilevel world. Ecol. Soc. 2006, 11(2):8.
20. CIESIN Poverty Mapping Project: Global Subnational Infant Mortality Rates 2005, Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC)/Center for International Earth Science Information Network, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, USA, http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/povmap/.
21. CONDEPE Monografia da microrregião do Vale do Ipojuca 2001, Instituto de Planejamento de Pernambuco, Recife, Brazil.
22. CONDEPE Mesorregião do São Francisco Pernambucano: Microrregiões de Petrolina e Itaparica 1998, Instituto de Planejamento de Pernambuco, Recife, Brazil.
23. Crane T.A. Of models and meanings: cultural resilience in social-ecological systems. Ecol. Soc. 2010, 15(4):19.
24. Damiani O. Beyond Market Failures: Irrigation, the State and Non-traditional Agriculture in Northeast Brazil 1999, (Ph.D. thesis), MIT, Cambridge, MA, USA.
25. Da Silva S.R., Silva L.M.R., Khan A.S. A fruticultura e o desenvolvimento local: O caso do núcleo produtivo de fruticultura irrigada de Limoeiro do Norte-Ceará. Revista EconÔmica do Nordeste 2004, 35:39-57.
26. De Araújo J.C., Döll P., Güntner A., Krol M.S., Beghini Rodrigues Abreu C., Hauschild M., Mendiondo E.M. Water scarcity under scenarios of global climate change and regional development in semiarid Northeastern Brazil. Water Int. 2004, 29(2):209-220.
27. Dietz T., Ostrom E., Stern P.C. The struggle to govern the commons. Science 2003, 302:1907-1912.
28. Dilley M., Chen R.S., Deichmann U., Lerner-Lam A.L., Arnold M., Agwe J., Buys P., Kjekstad O., Lyon B., Yetman G. Natural Disaster Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis 2005, World Bank/Columbia University, Washington, DC/NY, USA.
29. Dobie P. Poverty and the Drylands. The Global Drylands Development Partnership 2001, United Nations Development Programme, Nairobi, Kenya.
30. Döll P., Krol M.S. Integrated scenarios of regional development in two semi-arid states of north-eastern Brazil. Integr. Assess. 2002, 3:308-320.
31. Dregne H.E. Land degradation in the drylands. Arid Land Res. Manag. 2002, 16:99-132.
32. Eakin H. Institutional change, climate risk and rural vulnerability: cases from Central Mexico. World Dev. 2005, 33:1923-1938.
33. Eisenack K., Petschel-Held G. Graph theoretical analysis of qualitative models in sustainability science. Working Papers of 16th International Workshop on Qualitative Reasoning 2002, 53-60.
34. EM-DAT The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database 2013, Université Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium, www.emdat.be.
35. Engle N., Lemos M.C. Unpacking governance: building adaptive capacity to climate change for river basins in Brazil. Glob. Environ. Change 2010, 20(1):4-13.
36. Eriksen S., Silva J.A. The vulnerability context of a savanna area in Mozambique: household drought coping strategies and responses to economic change. Environ. Sci. Policy 2009, 12:33-52.
37. Eriksen S., Brown K., Kelly P.M. The dynamics of vulnerability: locating coping strategies in Kenya and Tanzania. Geogr. J. 2005, 171:287-305.
38. ESRI ESRI Data & Maps 2002. CD-ROM 2002, Environmental Systems Research Institute, Redland, CA, USA.
39. FAO Irrigation in Latin America and the Caribbean 2000, Food and Agriculture Organization, United Nations, Rome, Italy.
40. Fay M., Leipziger D., Wodon Q., Yepes T. Achieving child-health-related Millennium Development Goals: the role of infrastructure. World Dev. 2005, 33:1267-1284.
41. Ferreira F.H.G., Lanjouw P. Rural nonfarm activities and poverty in the Brazilian Northeast. World Dev. 2001, 29:509-528.
42. Finan T.J., Nelson D.R. Making rain, making roads, making do: Public and private adaptations to drought in Ceará, Northeast Brazil. Clim. Res. 2001, 19:97-108.
43. Folke C. Resilience: the emergence of a perspective for social-ecological systems analyses. Glob. Environ. Change 2006, 16:253-267.
44. Freibauer A., Rounsevell M.D.A., Smith P., Verhagen J. Carbon sequestration in the agricultural soils of Europe. Geoderma 2004, 122:1-23.
45. Füssel H.-M. Vulnerability: a generally applicable conceptual framework for climate change research. Glob. Environ. Change 2007, 17:155-167.
46. GAEZ Global Agro-Ecological Zoning. CD-ROM, Version 1.0 2000, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
47. Global Change and Regional Impacts: Water Availability and Vulnerability of Ecosystems and Society in the Semiarid Northeast of Brazil 2003, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, New York. T. Gaiser, M.S. Krol, H. Frischkorn, J.C. De Araújo (Eds.).
48. Geist H.J., Lambin E.F. Dynamic causal patterns of desertification. BioScience 2004, 54:817-829.
49. Gerstengarbe F.W., Werner P.C. Climate analysis and scenarios for Northeast Brazil. Global Change and Regional Impacts: Water Availability and Vulnerability of Ecosystems and Society in the Semiarid Northeast of Brazil 2003, 137-151. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, New York. T. Gaiser, M.S. Krol, H. Frischkorn, J.C. De Araújo (Eds.).
50. Gomes G.M. Velhas secas em novos sertoes 2001, Instituto de Pesquisa EconÔmica Aplicada, Brasilia, Brazil.
51. GRIP Global Risk Identification Programme 2013, United Nations Development Programme, www.gripweb.org/gripweb.
52. Resilience and the Behavior of Large Scale Ecosystems, SCOPE 2002, vol. 60. Island Press, Washington, DC, USA.
53. Huq S., Reid H. Mainstreaming adaptation in development. Inst. Dev. Stud. Bull. 2004, 35:15-21.
54. IBGE Banco de dados agregados 2012, Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, www.sidra.ibge.gov.br/bda/.
55. IBGE Reflexões sobre os deslocamentos populacionais no Brasil 2011, Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
56. Ionescu C., Klein R.J.T., Hinkel J., Kumar K.S.K., Klein R. Towards a formal framework of vulnerability to climate change. Environ. Model. Assess. 2009, 14:1-16.
57. IPCC Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden, C.E. Hanson (Eds.).
58. Jäger J., Kok M., Mohamed-Katerere J.C., Karlsson S.I., Lüdeke M.K.B., Dabelko G.D., Thomalla F., de Soysa I., Chenje M., Filcak R., Koshy L., Long Martello M., Mathur V., Moreno A.R., Narain V., Sietz D. Vulnerability of people and the environment: Challenges and opportunities. Global Environment Outlook: Environment for Development (GEO-4) 2007, 301-360. UNEP, Progress Press, Valletta, Malta.
59. Kasperson J.X., Kasperson R.E., Turner B.L., Hsieh W., Schiller A. Vulnerability to global environmental change. Social Contours of Risk. Vol. II: Risk Analysis, Corporations and the Globalization of Risk 2005, 245-285. Earthscan, London, UK. J.X. Kasperson, R.E. Kasperson (Eds.).
60. Kok M., De Coninck H.C. Widening the scope of policies to address climate change: directions for mainstreaming. Environ. Sci. Policy 2007, 10:587-599.
61. Krol M.S., Bronstert A. Regional integrated modelling of climate change impacts on natural resources and resource usage in semi-arid Northeast Brazil. Environ. Model. Softw. 2007, 22:259-268.
62. Krol M.S., Jaeger A., Bronstert A., Krywkow J. The semi-arid integrated model (SIM), a regional integrated model assessing water availability, vulnerability of ecosystems and society in NE-Brazil. Phys. Chem. Earth (B) 2001, 26:529-533.
63. Kuipers B. Qualitative Reasoning: Modeling and Simulation with Incomplete Knowledge 1994, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, USA.
64. Lasco R.D., Pulhin F.B., Jaranilla-Sanchez P.A., Delfino R.J.P., Gerpacio R., Garcia K. Mainstreaming adaptation in developing countries: the case of the Philippines. Clim. Dev. 2009, 1:130-146.
65. Leichenko R., O'Brien K.L. The dynamics of rural vulnerability to global change: the case of Southern Africa. Mitig. Adapt. Strateg. Glob. Change 2002, 7:1-18.
66. Lemos J.J.S. Niveis de degradacão no Nordeste Brasileiro. Revista EconÔmica do Nordeste 2001, 32:406-429.
67. Lemos M.C., De Oliveira J.L.F. Can water reform survive politics? Institutional change and river basin management in Ceará, Northeast Brazil. World Dev. 2004, 32(12):2121-2137.
68. Lemos M.C., Agrawal A., Eakin H., Nelson D.R., Engle N.L., Johns O. Building adaptive capacity to climate change in less developed countries. Climate Science for Serving Society 2013, 437-457. Springer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands. G.R. Asrar, J.W. Hurrell (Eds.).
69. Lemos M.C., Finan T.J., Fox R.W., Nelson D.R., Tucker J. The use of seasonal climate forecasting in policymaking: lessons from Northeast Brazil. Clim. Change 2002, 55(4):479-507.
70. Lepers E., Lambin E.F., Janetos A.C., De Fries R., Achard F., Ramankutty N., Scholes R.J. A synthesis of information on rapid land-cover change for the period 1981-2000. BioScience 2005, 55(2):115-124.
71. Luers A.L. The surface of vulnerability: a analytical framework for examining environmental change. Glob. Environ. Change 2005, 15:214-223.
72. Macours K., Swinnen J.F.M. Rural-urban poverty differences in transition countries. World Dev. 2008, 36:2170-2187.
73. Matias G.D.V., Silva L.M.R., Khan A.S. Reflexos de políticas públicas sobre a fruticultura cearense: O caso do agropolo Baixo Jaguaribe. Revista de Economia e Agronegócio 2004, 2:235-259.
74. Mertins G. Agrarstrukturelle Probleme, staatliche Entwicklungsprogramme und Abwanderung im ländlichen Raum Nordostbrasiliens 1997, Arbeitshefte des Lateinamerika-Zentrums 40, Münster, Germany.
75. Mertins G. Determinanten, Umfang und Formen der Migration Nordostbrasiliens. Geogr. Rdsch. 1982, 34:352-358.
76. MPOG Plano Plurianual 2000-2003 2000, Ministério do Planejamento, Orçamento e Gestão, Government of Brazil, Brasilia, Brazil.
77. Nelson D.R., Finan T.J. Praying for drought: persistent vulnerability and the politics of patronage in Ceará, northeast Brazil. Am. Anthropol. 2009, 111(3):302-316.
78. Oldeman L.R., Hakkeling R.T.A., Sombroek W.G. World Map of the Status of Human-induced Soil Degradation. An Explanatory Note 1991, International Soil Reference and Information Centre/United Nations Environment Programme, Wageningen, The Netherlands/Nairobi, Kenya. second revised ed.
79. PAN National Action Program to Combat Desertification and Mitigate the Effects of Drought 2004, Programa de Acción Nacional de Lucha contra la Desertificación, Ministério do Meio Ambiente, Brasilia, Brazil.
80. Reynolds J.F., Stafford Smith D.M., Lambin E.F., Turner B.L., Mortimore M., Batterbury S.P.J., Downing T.E., Dowlatabadi H., Fernández R.J., Herrick J.E., Huber-Sannwald E., Jiang H., Leemans R., Lynam T., Maestre F.T., Ayarza M., Walker B. Global desertification: building a science for dryland development. Science 2007, 316:847-851.
81. Safriel U.N., Adeel Z. Development paths of drylands: thresholds and sustainability. Sust. Sci. 2008, 3:117-123.
82. Safriel U.N., Adeel Z., Niemeijer D., Puigdefabres J., White R., Lal R., Winslow M., Ziedler J., Prince S., Archer E., King C. Dryland systems. Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Current State and Trends 2005, vol. 1:623-662. Island Press, Washington, Covelo, London.
83. Sallu S.M., Twyman D., Stringer L.C. Resilient or vulnerable livelihoods? Assessing livelihood dynamics and trajectories in rural Botswana. Ecol. Soc. 2010, 15:3.
84. Schwalbach M. Autokratismus und Wirtschaftspolitik in Brasilien (1964-1985) 1993, Zur politischen Ökonomie der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung der Nordostregion, Frankfurt, Germany.
85. Sietz D., Mamani Choque S.E., Lüdeke M.K.B. Typical patterns of smallholder vulnerability to weather extremes with regard to food security in the Peruvian Altiplano. Reg. Environ. Change 2012, 12(3):489-505.
86. Sietz D., Lüdeke M.K.B., Walther C. Categorisation of typical vulnerability patterns in global drylands. Glob. Environ. Change 2011, 21(2):431-440.
87. Sietz D., Boschütz M., Klein R.J.T. Mainstreaming climate adaptation into development assistance: rationale, institutional barriers and opportunities in Mozambique. Environ. Sci. Policy 2011, 14(4):493-502.
88. Sietz D., Untied B., Walkenhorst O., Lüdeke M.K.B., Mertins G., Petschel-Held G., Schellnhuber H.J. Smallholder agriculture in Northeast Brazil: assessing heterogeneous human-environmental dynamics. Reg. Environ. Change 2006, 6(3):132-146.
89. Turner B.L., Kasperson R.E., Matson P.A., McCarthy J.J., Corell R.W., Christensen L., Eckley N., Kasperson J.X., Luers A.L., Martello M.L., Polsky C., Pulsipher A., Schiller A. A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 2003, 100:8074-8079.
90. Turner B.L., Matson P.A., McCarthy J.J., Corell R.W., Christensen L., Eckley N., Hovelsrud-Broda G.K., Kasperson J.X., Kasperson R.E., Luers A.L., Martello M.L., Mathiesen S., Naylord R., Polsky C., Pulsipher A., Schiller A., Selin H., Tyler N. Illustrating the coupled human-environment system for vulnerability analysis: three case studies. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 2003, 100:8080-8085.
91. Twyman C., Fraser E.D.G., Stringer L.C., Quinn C., Dougill A.J., Ravera F., Crane T.A., Sallu S.M. Climate science, development practice, and policy interactions in dryland agroecological systems. Ecol. Soc. 2011, 16(3):14.
92. UNCCD The 10-year strategic plan and framework to enhance the implementation of the Convention (2008-2018). Decision 3/COP.8, ICCD/COP(8)/16/Add.1 2007, United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification, COP 8, Madrid, Spain, 3-14 September 2007.
93. UNDP Human Development Report 2010 2010, United Nations Development Programme, NY, USA.
94. UNDP Reducing Disaster Risk: A Challenge for Development 2004, United Nations Development Programme, NY, USA.
95. Vetter S. Development and sustainable management of rangeland commons - aligning policy with the realities of South Africa's rural landscape. Afr. J. Range Forage Sci. 2013, 30(1-2):1-9.
96. Vörösmarty C.J., McIntyre P.B., Gessner M.O., Dudgeon D., Prusevich A., Green P., Glidden S., Bunn S.E., Sullivan C.A., Reidy Liermann C., Davies P.M. Global threats to human water security and river biodiversity. Nature 2010, 467:555-561.
97. Voth A. Innovative Entwicklungen in der Erzeugung und Vermarktung von Sonderkulturprodukten 2002, Vechtaer Studien zur Angewandten Geographie und Regionalwissenschaft 24, Vechta, Germany.
98. World Bank World Development Indicators 2008. Poverty Data - A Supplement to World Development Indicators 2008 2008, World Bank, Washington, DC, USA.