Using Multilevel Models to Estimate Variation in Foraging Returns: Effects of Failure Rate, Harvest Size, Age, and Individual Heterogeneity

Human Nature

Volumn 25, Issue 1, 2014, Pages 100-120

  McElreath, Richard ^a   Koster, Jeremy ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF CINCINNATI   (United States)

Author keywords

Foraging; Human behavioral ecology; Life history; Multilevel modeling

Indexed keywords

AGE; AGRICULTURE; HUMAN; PARAGUAY; POPULATION DYNAMICS; STATISTICS AND NUMERICAL DATA; THEORETICAL MODEL;

AGE FACTORS; AGRICULTURE; HUMANS; MODELS, THEORETICAL; PARAGUAY; POPULATION DYNAMICS;

EID: 84897599350     PISSN: 10456767     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s12110-014-9193-4     Document Type: Article

References (46)

1. Alvard, M. (1995). Shotguns and sustainable hunting in the neotropics. Oryx, 29, 58-66.
2. Bliege Bird, R., & Bird, D. W. (2002). Constraints of knowing or constraints of growing? Fishing and collecting by the children of Mer. Human Nature, 13(2), 239-267.
3. Boyd, R. (1992). The evolution of reciprocity when conditions vary. In A. Harcourt & F. DeWaal (Eds.), Coalitions and alliances in humans and other animals (pp. 473-489). New York: Oxford University Press.
4. Browne, W. J., Goldstein, H., & Rasbash, J. (2001). Multiple membership multiple classification (MMMC) models. Statistical Modelling, 1, 103-124.
5. Burnham, K., & Anderson, D. (2002). Model selection and multimodel inference: A practical information-theoretic approach (2nd ed.). New York: Springer.
6. Cashdan, E. (Ed.). (1990). Risk and uncertainty in tribal and peasant economies. Boulder: Westview Press.
7. Claeskens, G., & Hjort, N. (2008). Model selection and model averaging. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
8. Efron, B., & Morris, C. (1975). Data analysis using Stein's estimator and its generalizations. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 70, 311-319.
9. Fang, Y. (2011). Asymptotic equivalence between cross-validations and Akaike information criteria in mixed-effects models. Journal of Data Science, 9, 15-21.
10. Gelman, A., & Hill, J. (2007). Data analysis using regression and multilevel/hierarchical models. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
11. Gelman, A., Carlin, J. C., Stern, H. S., & Rubin, D. B. (2004). Bayesian data analysis (2nd ed.). New York: Chapman & Hall/CRC.
12. Gelman, A., Jakulin, A., Pittau, M. G., & Su, T.-S. (2008). A weakly informative default prior distribution for logistic and other regression models. Annals of Applied Statistics, 2(4), 1360-1383.
13. Gigerenzer, G. (1991). From tools to theories: a heuristic of discovery in cognitive psychology. Psychological Review, 98(2), 254-267.
14. Green, E. J., & Porter, R. H. (1984). Noncooperative collusion under imperfect price information. Econometrica, 52(1), 87-100.
15. Gurven, M. (2006). The evolution of contingent cooperation. Current Anthropology, 47, 185-192.
16. Gurven, M., Hill, K., Kaplan, H., Hurtado, A., & Lyles, R. (2000). Food transfers among Hiwi foragers of Venezuela: tests of reciprocity. Human Ecology, 28(2), 171-217.
17. Gurven, M., Kaplan, H., & Gutierrez, M. (2006). How long does it take to become a proficient hunter? Implications for the evolution of delayed growth. Journal of Human Evolution, 51, 454-470.
18. Hawkes, K., & Bliege Bird, R. (2002). Showing off, handicap signaling, and the evolution of men's work. Evolutionary Anthropology, 11, 58-67.
19. Hill, K. (2002). Altruistic cooperation during foraging by the Ache, and the evolved human predisposition to cooperate. Human Nature, 13(1), 105-128.
20. Hill, K., & Kintigh, K. (2009). Can anthropologists distinguish good and poor hunters? Implications for hunting hypotheses, sharing conventions, and cultural transmission. Current Anthropology, 50(3), 369-377.
21. Hill, K., McMillan, G., & Fariña, R. F. (2003). Hunting-related changes in game encounter rates from 1994 to 2001 in the Mbaracayu reserve, Paraguay. Conservation Biology, 17(5), 1312-1323.
22. House, B. R., Silk, J. B., Henrich, J., Barrett, H. C., Scelza, B., Boyette, A., et al. (2013). The ontogeny of prosocial behavior across diverse societies. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (USA). doi: 10. 1073/pnas. 1221217110.
23. Jones, J., Bird, R., & Bird, D. (2013). To kill a kangaroo: understanding the decision to pursue high-risk/high-gain resources. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B. doi: 10. 1098/rspb. 2013. 1210.
24. Kaplan, H. S., Hill, K. R., Lancaster, J. B., & Hurtado, A. M. (2000). A theory of human life history evolution: diet, intelligence, and longevity. Evolutionary Anthropology, 9, 156-185.
25. Kaplan, H. S., Hooper, P. L., & Gurven, M. (2009). The evolutionary and ecological roots of human social organization. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 364, 3289-3299.
26. Kaplan, H. S., Schniter, E., Smith, V. L., & Wilson, B. J. (2012). Risk and the evolution of human exchange. Proceedings of the Royal Society B, 279(1740), 2930-2935.
27. Koster, J. (2008). Hunting with dogs in Nicaragua: an optimal foraging approach. Current Anthropology, 49, 935-944.
28. Koster, J. M., & Tankersley, K. B. (2012). Heterogeneity of hunting ability and nutritional status among domestic dogs in lowland Nicaragua. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (USA), 109, E463-E470.
29. Le, S., & Boyd, R. (2007). Evolutionary dynamics of the continuous iterated prisoner's dilemma. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 245, 258-267.
30. Lewandowski, D., Kurowicka, D., & Joe, H. (2009). Generating random correlation matrices based on vines and extended onion method. Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 100, 1989-2001.
31. Lunn, D., Jackson, C., Best, N., Thomas, A., & Spiegelhalter, D. (2013). The BUGS Book: A practical introduction to Bayesian analysis. Boca Raton: CRC Press.
32. McCullagh, P., & Nelder, J. A. (1989). Generalized linear models (2nd ed.). New York: Chapman and Hall/CRC Press.
33. McElreath, R. (2012). glmer2stan: Rstan models defined by glmer formulas, version 0. 96. Available online at http://xcelab. net/rm/.
34. Neal, R. (2011). MCMC using Hamiltonian dynamics. In G. Brooks & M. Jones (Eds.), Handbook of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (pp. 113-162). Boca Raton: Chapman and Hall/CRC Press.
35. Plummer, M. (2003). JAGS: a program for analysis of Bayesian graphical models using Gibbs sampling. In Proceedings of the 3rd International Workshop on Distributed Statistical Computing (DSC 2003). Available online at http://www. r-project. org/conferences/DSC-2003/Proceedings/.
36. Plummer, M. (2008). Penalized loss functions for Bayesian model comparison. Biostatistics, 9(3), 523-539.
37. Rubin, D. B. (1976). Inference and missing data (with discussion). Biometrika, 63, 581-592.
38. Spiegelhalter, D. J., Best, N. G., Carlin, B. P., & va der Linde, A. (2002). Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B, 64, 583-639.
39. Stan Development Team. (2012). Stan: A C++ library for probability and sampling, version 1. 0. 2. Available online at http://mc-stan. org/.
40. Stephens, D. W., & Charnov, E. L. (1982). Optimal foraging: some simple stochastic models. Behavioral Ecology and Sociobiology, 10, 251-263.
41. Stephens, D. W., & Krebs, J. R. (1986). Foraging theory. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
42. Vaida, F., & Blanchard, S. (2005). Conditional Akaike information for mixed-effects models. Biometrika, 92(2), 351-370.
43. Walker, R., Hill, K., Kaplan, H., & McMillan, G. (2002). Age-dependency in hunting ability among the Ache of eastern Paraguay. Journal of Human Evolution, 42, 639-657.
44. Whorf, B. (1941). The relation of habitual thought and behavior to language. In L. Spier (Ed.), Language, culture, and personality, essays in memory of Edward Sapir (pp. 75-93). Menasha: Sapir Memorial Publication Fund.
45. Winterhalder, B. (1990). Open field, common pot: harvest variability and risk avoidance in agricultural and foraging societies. In E. A. Cashdan (Ed.), Risk and uncertainty in tribal and peasant economies (pp. 67-87). Boulder: Westview Press.
46. Winterhalder, B., Kennett, D. J., Grote, M. N., & Bartruff, J. (2010). Ideal free settlement of California's northern Channel Islands. Journal of Anthropological Archaeology, 29, 469-490.