Objective classification of extreme rainfall regions for the UK and updated estimates of trends in regional extreme rainfall

International Journal of Climatology

Volumn 34, Issue 3, 2014, Pages 751-765

  Jones, Mari R ^a,b   Blenkinsop, Stephen ^b   Fowler, Hayley J ^b   Kilsby, Christopher G ^b  

^a NATIONAL CENTER FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH   (United States)

^b NEWCASTLE UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Extreme rainfall; Precipitation; Principal components analysis; Spatial patterns; UK and Northern Ireland

Indexed keywords

EXTREME RAINFALL; FORMAL REPRESENTATIONS; NORTHERN IRELAND; PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS ANALYSIS; REGIONAL FREQUENCY ANALYSIS; RELIABLE ESTIMATES; SPATIAL PATTERNS; TEMPORAL CHARACTERISTICS;

PRECIPITATION (CHEMICAL); PRINCIPAL COMPONENT ANALYSIS; RAIN; RISK MANAGEMENT;

ESTIMATION;

EXTREME EVENT; PRECIPITATION INTENSITY; PRINCIPAL COMPONENT ANALYSIS; RAINFALL; REGIONAL PATTERN; SPATIAL ANALYSIS;

NORTHERN IRELAND; UNITED KINGDOM;

EID: 84896689654     PISSN: 08998418     EISSN: 10970088     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/joc.3720     Document Type: Article

References (68)

1. Alexander LV, Jones PD. 2000. Updated precipitation series for the U.K. and discussion of recent extremes. Atmospheric Science Letters 1(2): 142-150.
2. Alexander LV, Zhang X, Peterson TC, Caesar J, Gleason B, Klein Tank AMG, Haylock M, Collins D, Trewin B, Rahimzadeh F, Tagipour A, Rupa Kumar K, Revadekar J, Griffiths G, Vincent L, Stephenson DB, Burn J, Aguilar E, Brunet M, Taylor M, New M, Zhai P, Rusticucci M, Vazquez-Aguirre JL. 2006. Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. Journal of Geophysical Research 111(D5): D05109.
3. Asquith WH. 2013. lmomco: L-moments, Trimmed L-moments, L-comments, and Many Distributions. R package version 1.7.5. Texas Tech University, Lubbock, Texas. http://www.cran.r-project.org/package=lmomco
4. Blenkinsop S, Fowler HJ. 2007. Changes in drought frequency and severity over the British Isles projected by the PRUDENCE regional climate models. Journal of Hydrology 342: 50-71.
5. Blenkinsop S, Fowler HJ, Dubus IG, Nolan BT, Hollis JM. 2008. Developing climatic scenarios for pesticide fate modelling in Europe. Environmental Pollution 154(2): 219-231.
6. Bonell M, Sumner G. 1992. Autumn and winter daily precipitation areas in Wales, 1982-1983 to 1986-1987. International Journal of Climatology 12(1): 77-102.
7. Coelho CAS, Ferro CAT, Stephenson DB, Steinskog DJ. 2008. Methods for exploring spatial and temporal variability of extreme events in climate data. Journal of Climate 21(10): 2072-2092.
8. Coles S. 2001. An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values. Springer-Verlag: Berlin.
9. Cooley D, Nychka D, Naveau P. 2007. Bayesian spatial modeling of extreme precipitation return levels. Journal of the American Statistical Association 102(479): 824-840.
10. Corte-Real J, Qian B, Xu H. 1998. Regional climate change in Portugal: precipitation variability associated with large-scale atmospheric circulation. International Journal of Climatology 18(6): 619-635.
11. Cunnane C. 1988. Methods and merits of regional flood frequency analysis. Journal of Hydrology 100(1-3): 269-290.
12. Dales MY, Reed DW. 1989. Regional Flood and Storm Hazard Assessment. Institute of Hydrology: Wallingford, Oxfordshire.
13. Davison AC, Smith RL. 1990. Models for exceedances over high thresholds. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological) 52(3): 393-442.
14. Dommenget D, Latif M. 2002. A cautionary note on the interpretation of EOFs. Journal of Climate 15(2): 216-225.
15. Efron B, Tibshirani RJ. 1993. An Introduction to the Bootstrap. Chapman & Hall: London.
16. Faulkner DS. 1999. Flood Estimation Handbook (Procedures for Flood Frequency Estimation): Rainfall frequency estimation. Institute of Hydrology: Wallingford, Oxfordshire.
17. Ferro CAT, Segers J. 2003. Inference for clusters of extreme values. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology) 65(2): 545-556.
18. Fowler HJ, Ekström M. 2009. Multi-model ensemble estimates of climate change impacts on UK seasonal precipitation extremes. International Journal of Climatology 29: 385-416.
19. Fowler HJ, Kilsby CG. 2003a. A regional frequency analysis of United Kingdom extreme rainfall from 1961 to 2000. International Journal of Climatology 23(11): 1313-1334.
20. Fowler HJ, Kilsby CG. 2003b. Implications of changes in seasonal and annual extreme rainfall. Geophysical Research Letters 30(13): 1720. DOI: 10.1029/2003GL017327
21. Fowler HJ, Wilby RL. 2010. Detecting changes in seasonal precipitation extremes using regional climate model projections: Implications for managing fluvial flood risk. Water Resources Research 46(3): W03525.
22. Fowler HJ, Cooley D, Sain SR, Thurston M. 2010. Detecting change in UK extreme precipitation using results from the climateprediction.net BBC climate change experiment. Extremes 13: 241-267.
23. Furrer R, Nychka D, Sain S. 2013. fields: Tools for Spatial Data. R package version 6.7.6. http://CRAN.R-project.org/package=fields.
24. Gilleland E, Katz RW, Young G. 2011. New software to analyze how extremes change over time. Eos, 92(2): 13-14.
25. Gregory S. 1975. On the delimitation of regional patterns of recent climatic fluctuations. Weather 30(9): 276-287.
26. Gregory JM, Jones PD, Wigley TML. 1991. Precipitation in Britain: an analysis of area-average data updated to 1989. International Journal of Climatology 11: 331-345.
27. Gringorten II. 1963. A plotting rule for extreme probability paper. Journal of Geophysical Research 68: 813-814.
28. Hall MJ, van den Boogaard HFP, Fernando RC, Mynett AE. 2004. The construction of confidence intervals for frequency analysis using resampling techniques. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 8: 235-246.
29. Hanel M, Buishand TA, Ferro CAT. 2009. A nonstationary index flood model for precipitation extremes in transient regional climate model simulations. Journal of Geophysical Research 114(D15): D15107.
30. Hartigan JA, Wong MA. 1979. Algorithm AS 136: a K-means clustering algorithm. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics) 28(1): 100-108.
31. Hosking JRM. 1990. L-Moments: analysis and estimation of distributions using linear combinations of order statistics. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological) 52(1): 105-124.
32. Hosking JRM, Wallis JR. 1988. The effect of intersite dependence on regional flood frequency analysis. Water Resources Research 24(4): 588-600.
33. Hosking JRM, Wallis JR. 1993. Some statistics useful in regional frequency analysis. Water Resources Research 29(2): 271-281.
34. Hosking JRM, Wallis JR. 1997. Regional Frequency Analysis: An Approach Based on L-Moments. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.
35. Hossell JE, Riding AE, Brown I. 2003. The creation and characterisation of a bioclimatic classification for Britain and Ireland. Journal of Nature Conservation 11(1): 5-13.
36. Institute of Hydrology. 1975. Flood Studies Report. Natural Environment Research Council.
37. IPCC. 2011. Summary for policy makers. In Special Report for Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. Contribution of Working Group II. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
38. Jackson MC, Larke PR. 1974. Frequencies of Specified Rainfall Amounts within Specified Elevation over England and Wales. Hydrological Memorandum No. 41. Met Office: Exeter, UK.
39. Jenkins G, Perry M, Prior J. 2010. The climate of the UK and recent trends. [Online]. Available at http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk/content/view/816/500. Accessed 23 March 2011.
40. Jolliffe IT. 1972. Discarding variables in a principal component analysis. I: artificial data. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics) 21(2): 160-173.
41. Jolliffe IT. 1973. Discarding variables in a principal component analysis. II: real data. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics) 22(1): 21-31.
42. Jones PD, Conway D. 1997. Precipitation in the British Isles: an analysis of area-averaged data updated to 1995. International Journal of Climatology 17(4): 427-438.
43. Jones MR, Fowler HJ, Kilsby CG, Blenkinsop S. 2010. An updated regional frequency analysis of United Kingdom extreme rainfall 1961-2009. In Proceedings BHS 2010: Role of Hydrology in Managing Consequences of a Changing Global Environment. Newcastle, UK, 19-23 July 2010. BHS Third International Symposium, 110-118.
44. Jones MR, Fowler HJ, Kilsby CG, Blenkinsop S. 2013a. An assessment of changes in seasonal and annual extreme rainfall in the UK between 1961 and 2009. International Journal of Climatology 33(5): 1178-1194.
45. Jones MR, Blenkinsop S, Fowler HJ, Stephenson DB, Kilsby CG. 2013b. Generalized additive modelling of daily precipitation extremes and their climatic drivers. NCAR/TN-501+STR, 34 pp. http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/TECH-NOTE-000-000-000-868.
46. Kaiser HF. 1960. The application of electronic computers to factor analysis. Educational and Psychological Measurement 20: 141-151.
47. Katz R. 2010. Statistics of extremes in climate change. Climatic Change 100(1): 71-76.
48. Kharin VV, Zwiers FW. 2000. Changes in the extremes in an ensemble of transient climate simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM. Journal of Climate 13(21): 3760-3788.
49. Komsta L, Novomestky F. 2012. moments: Moments, Cumulants, Skewness, Kurtosis and Related Tests. R package version 0.13. http://CRAN.R-project.org/package=moments.
50. Lamb HH. 1972. British Isles Weather Types and a Register of Daily Sequence of Circulation Patterns. In 1861-1971: Geophysical Memoir, volume 116. HMSO: London, UK, p. 85, 1861-1971.
51. Macdonald N, Jones CA, Davies SJ, Charnell-White C. 2010. Historical weather accounts from Wales: an assessment of their potential for reconstructing climate. Weather 65(3): 72-81.
52. Maechler M, Rousseeuw P, Struyf A, Hubert M, Hornik K. 2012. cluster: Cluster Analysis Basics and Extensions. R package version 1.14.3.
53. Maraun D, Osborn TJ, Gillett NP. 2008. United Kingdom daily precipitation intensity: improved early data, error estimates and an update from 2000 to 2006. International Journal of Climatology 28(6): 833-842.
54. Murphy J, Sexton D, Jenkins G, Boorman P, Booth B, Brown K, Clark R, Collins M, Harris G, Kendon L. 2009. Climate Change Projections. Met Office Hadley Centre: Exeter.
55. Neal RA, Phillips ID. 2009. Summer daily precipitation variability over the East Anglian region of Great Britain. International Journal of Climatology 29(11): 1661-1679.
56. Perry M. 2006. A Spatial Analysis of Trends in the UK Climate since 1914 using Gridded Datasets. National Climate Information Centre, Met Office: Exeter.
57. Phillips ID, McGregor GR. 2002. The relationship between monthly and seasonal South-west England rainfall anomalies and concurrent North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. International Journal of Climatology 22(2): 197-217.
58. R Development Core Team. 2013. R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing: Vienna, Austria. ISBN 3-900051-07-0, URL http://www.R-project.org/
59. Raziei T, Bordi I, Pereira LS, Corte-Real J, Santos JA. 2011. Relationship between daily atmospheric circulation types and winter dry/wet spells in western Iran. International Journal of Climatology 32(7): 1056-1068.
60. Ribatet M, Sauquet E, Grésillon J-M, Ouarda T. 2007. A regional Bayesian POT model for flood frequency analysis. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment 21(4): 327-339.
61. Robson AJ. 1999. Flood Estimation Handbook (Procedures for Flood Frequency Estimation): Statistical Procedures for Flood Frequency Estimation. Institute of Hydrology: Wallingford, Oxfordshire.
62. Rodda HJE, Little MA, Wood RG, MacDougall N, McSharry PE. 2009. A digital archive of extreme rainfalls in the British Isles from 1866 to 1968 based on British Rainfall. Weather 64(3): 71-75.
63. Stedinger JR, Vogel RM, Foufoula-Georgiou E. 1993. Frequency analysis of extreme events. In Handbook of Hydrology, Maidment D (ed). McGraw-Hill, Inc: New York.
64. Viglione A. 2013. nsRFA: Non-supervised Regional Frequency Analysis. R package version 0.7-10. http://CRAN.R-project.org/package=nsRFA.
65. Viglione A, Laio F, Claps P. 2007. A comparison of homogeneity tests for regional frequency analysis. Water Resources Research 29(6): 1745-1752.
66. Villarini G, Smith JA, Baeck ML, Vitolo R, Stephenson DB, Krajewski WF. 2011. On the frequency of heavy rainfall for the Midwest of the United States. Journal of Hydrology 400(1-2): 103-120.
67. Wigley TML, Lough JM, Jones PD. 1984. Spatial patterns of precipitation in England and Wales and a revised, homogenous England and Wales precipitation series. International Journal of Climatology 4(1): 1-25.
68. Wilks DS. 2005. Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences: An Introduction, Academic Press Inc.: Burlington, MA. pp 592.