메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 27, Issue 2, 2014, Pages 134-145

Identifying the Effects of Unjustified Confidence versus Overconfidence: Lessons Learned from Two Analytic Methods

Author keywords

Decision making; Individual differences; Judgment; Metacognition; Overconfidence; Perceived knowledge; Unjustified confidence

Indexed keywords


EID: 84896317631     PISSN: 08943257     EISSN: 10990771     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/bdm.1787     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (35)

References (30)
  • 1
    • 0034338808 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Knowledge calibration: What consumers know and what they think they know
    • Alba, J.W., & Hutchinson, J.W. (2000). Knowledge calibration: What consumers know and what they think they know. Journal of Consumer Research, 27, 123-156.
    • (2000) Journal of Consumer Research , vol.27 , pp. 123-156
    • Alba, J.W.1    Hutchinson, J.W.2
  • 2
    • 20444405530 scopus 로고
    • The antecedents and consequences of customer satisfaction for firms
    • Anderson, E.W., & Sullivan, M.W. (1993). The antecedents and consequences of customer satisfaction for firms. Marketing Science, 12, 125-143.
    • (1993) Marketing Science , vol.12 , pp. 125-143
    • Anderson, E.W.1    Sullivan, M.W.2
  • 5
    • 0026234897 scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic mental models: A Brunswikian theory of confidence
    • Gigerenzer, G., Hoffrage, U., & Kleinbölting, H. (1991). Probabilistic mental models: A Brunswikian theory of confidence. Psychological Review, 98, 506-528.
    • (1991) Psychological Review , vol.98 , pp. 506-528
    • Gigerenzer, G.1    Hoffrage, U.2    Kleinbölting, H.3
  • 6
    • 23044531128 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The overconfident principles of economics student: An examination of a metacognitive skill
    • Grimes, P.W. (2002). The overconfident principles of economics student: An examination of a metacognitive skill. The Journal of Economic Education, 33, 15-30.
    • (2002) The Journal of Economic Education , vol.33 , pp. 15-30
    • Grimes, P.W.1
  • 8
    • 14944363124 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Metacognition, risk behavior, and risk outcomes: The role of perceived intelligence and perceived knowledge
    • Jaccard, J., Dodge, T., & Guilamo-Ramos, V. (2005). Metacognition, risk behavior, and risk outcomes: The role of perceived intelligence and perceived knowledge. Health Psychology, 24, 161-170.
    • (2005) Health Psychology , vol.24 , pp. 161-170
    • Jaccard, J.1    Dodge, T.2    Guilamo-Ramos, V.3
  • 9
    • 77955176678 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The attraction of uncertainty: Interactions between skill and levels of uncertainty in market-entry games
    • Karelaia, N., & Hogarth, R.M. (2010). The attraction of uncertainty: Interactions between skill and levels of uncertainty in market-entry games. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 41, 141-166.
    • (2010) Journal of Risk and Uncertainty , vol.41 , pp. 141-166
    • Karelaia, N.1    Hogarth, R.M.2
  • 10
    • 20744458841 scopus 로고
    • Calibration and probability judgments: Conceptual and methodological issues
    • Keren, G. (1991). Calibration and probability judgments: Conceptual and methodological issues. Acta Psychologica, 24, 411-435.
    • (1991) Acta Psychologica , vol.24 , pp. 411-435
    • Keren, G.1
  • 11
    • 0002941732 scopus 로고
    • Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980
    • In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, A. Tversky (Eds.), pp. -). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
    • Lichtenstein, S., Fischhoff, B., & Phillips L.D. (1982). Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980. In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.), Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 306-334). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
    • (1982) Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases , pp. 306-334
    • Lichtenstein, S.1    Fischhoff, B.2    Phillips, L.D.3
  • 13
    • 43449094045 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The trouble with overconfidence
    • Moore, D.A. & Healy, P.J. (2008). The trouble with overconfidence. Psychological Review, 115, 502-517.
    • (2008) Psychological Review , vol.115 , pp. 502-517
    • Moore, D.A.1    Healy, P.J.2
  • 14
    • 0000396442 scopus 로고
    • A cognitive model of the antecedents and consequences of satisfaction decisions
    • Oliver, R.L., (1980). A cognitive model of the antecedents and consequences of satisfaction decisions. Journal of Marketing Research, 17, 460-469.
    • (1980) Journal of Marketing Research , vol.17 , pp. 460-469
    • Oliver, R.L.1
  • 15
    • 20744438941 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Decision-making competence: External validation through an individual-differences approach
    • Parker, A. M., & Fischhoff, B. (2005). Decision-making competence: External validation through an individual-differences approach. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 18, 1-27.
    • (2005) Journal of Behavioral Decision Making , vol.18 , pp. 1-27
    • Parker, A.M.1    Fischhoff, B.2
  • 17
    • 1642436823 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Intuitive evaluation of likelihood judgment producers: Evidence for a confidence heuristic
    • Price, P.C., & Stone, E.R. (2004). Intuitive evaluation of likelihood judgment producers: Evidence for a confidence heuristic. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 17, 39-57.
    • (2004) Journal of Behavioral Decision Making , vol.17 , pp. 39-57
    • Price, P.C.1    Stone, E.R.2
  • 18
    • 21844518890 scopus 로고
    • Perceptions of knowledge, actual knowledge, and information search behavior
    • Radecki, C.M., & Jaccard, J. (1995). Perceptions of knowledge, actual knowledge, and information search behavior. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 31, 107-138.
    • (1995) Journal of Experimental Social Psychology , vol.31 , pp. 107-138
    • Radecki, C.M.1    Jaccard, J.2
  • 19
    • 0041546077 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • But I thought I knew that: Using confidence estimation as a debiasing technique to improve classroom performance
    • Renner, C.H., & Renner, M.J. (2001). But I thought I knew that: Using confidence estimation as a debiasing technique to improve classroom performance. Applied Cognitive Psychology, 15, 23-32.
    • (2001) Applied Cognitive Psychology , vol.15 , pp. 23-32
    • Renner, C.H.1    Renner, M.J.2
  • 20
    • 20744435159 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The recalcitrance of overconfidence and its contribution to decision aid neglect
    • Sieck, W.R., & Arkes, H.R. (2005). The recalcitrance of overconfidence and its contribution to decision aid neglect. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 18, 29-53.
    • (2005) Journal of Behavioral Decision Making , vol.18 , pp. 29-53
    • Sieck, W.R.1    Arkes, H.R.2
  • 22
    • 0006107675 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Eliminating overconfidence in psychodiagnosis: Strategies for training and practice
    • Smith, D., & Dumont, F. (1997). Eliminating overconfidence in psychodiagnosis: Strategies for training and practice. Clinical Psychology: Science and Practice, 4, 335-345.
    • (1997) Clinical Psychology: Science and Practice , vol.4 , pp. 335-345
    • Smith, D.1    Dumont, F.2
  • 25
    • 84896319268 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • November). Exploring the effects of overconfidence in casino blackjack. Poster presented at the annual meeting of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making, Minneapolis, MN.
    • Stone, E. R., Rittmayer, A. D., & Parker, A. M. (2004, November). Exploring the effects of overconfidence in casino blackjack. Poster presented at the annual meeting of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making, Minneapolis, MN.
    • (2004)
    • Stone, E.R.1    Rittmayer, A.D.2    Parker, A.M.3
  • 26
    • 85011601618 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Introduction: Theoretical and operational framework for research into the etiology of substance use disorder
    • Tarter, R., & Vanyukov, M. (2001). Introduction: Theoretical and operational framework for research into the etiology of substance use disorder. Journal of Child and Adolescent Substance Abuse, 10, 1-12.
    • (2001) Journal of Child and Adolescent Substance Abuse , vol.10 , pp. 1-12
    • Tarter, R.1    Vanyukov, M.2
  • 27
    • 48749106397 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The benefits of knowing what you know (and what you don't): How calibration affects credibility
    • Tenney, E.R., Spellman, B.A., & MacCoun, R.J. (2008). The benefits of knowing what you know (and what you don't): How calibration affects credibility. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 44, 1368-1375.
    • (2008) Journal of Experimental Social Psychology , vol.44 , pp. 1368-1375
    • Tenney, E.R.1    Spellman, B.A.2    MacCoun, R.J.3
  • 28
    • 84896316906 scopus 로고
    • Flat maxima in linear optimization models (Technical Report No. 011313-4-T). Ann Arbor: University of Michigan, Engineering Psychology Laboratory.
    • Von Winterfeldt, D., & Edwards, W. (1973). Flat maxima in linear optimization models (Technical Report No. 011313-4-T). Ann Arbor: University of Michigan, Engineering Psychology Laboratory.
    • (1973)
    • Von Winterfeldt, D.1    Edwards, W.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.